Donald Ingram's  Instablog

The Weekly Unemployment Reports of;
Last week of December 2009
versus
Last week of December 2010

Last year's SA (seasonally adjusted) number for this week was 454,000 and NSA (non seasonally adjusted) was 556,000. That was a SA of -18.3%.

This years SA number for this week is 388,000 and the NSA is 521,000.
That is a SA of -25.5%.

This does not make much sense since it shows that the actual numbers are lower than last year's, but not by very much. Yet the reporting of the numbers is twisted to make it appear much lower, due to the huge seasonal adjustments that the Department of Labour is using.

Do they think that we are stupid?
Do they actually think that this will not be noticed?
If it is noticed, will people care? This is the crux of the matter, is it not? Just blatantly fudge the numbers since no one seems to care anyway!

Welcome to the new "fraudulent" normal.

The Comex may have a problem. Tomorrow is first notice. The gold open interest as of this morning is 59,412 contracts or, 5.9 million ounces. The Comex gold inventory shows only 2.6 million ounces of gold registered and approved for delivery.
In silver, there are 17,208 open contracts or, 86 million ounces. The Comex reports 48.5 million ounces available and approved for delivery. 
Any open long positions as of this morning are capable of taking delivery of gold and silver.
If the cartel is unable to force liquidation of a majority of the open gold/silver positions...
Houston. We have a problem!

Disclosure: No Positions

Except during a depression, GDP always makes a new peak before the next recession. The 91-day Consumer Metrics Institute Growth Index, has shown a marginal improvement from -6.13 to - 5.93, a 0.20 move to the upside. However, considering that the short term 91-day is 'noisy' (on account of the limited time frame) is subject to high volatility.

To smooth out this volatility its necessary to look at the CMI 186-day and 365-day growth indexes.

See chart;
http://www.dshort.com/charts/Consumer-Metrics-Growth-Index.html?CMI-shift-series-04

Note that during the most pronounced part of the last downturn, Q4 2008, the 365-day never went below -2%, while at present it sits at -2.88% and trending solidly down. This portends a much lower GDP number in Q4 2010 and lower still in Q1 2011. These trends in the CMI growth indices, add credence for the much dismissed double dip occuring during the first half of 2011.

Disclosure: Long physical gold and silver.