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Donald Johnson

 
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  • How Healthy Were Hain Celestial's Q1 Results? [View article]
    PE contraction caused the stock prices of Microsoft, GE and other companies to contract sharply in response to slowing growth in earnings. Stocks that had 20 PEs and higher suddenly were growing at 5% a year, and their PEs shrank. As a result, despite still nice increases in revenues and earnings, the companies stocks fell into prolonged and depressing trading ranges before showing some signs of life this year. PEG counts.

    That is the warning that the author is making in his third bullet point summary and in his final comments.

    Because of HAIN"s strong technicals and momentum, I was considering it for a covered call trade, which could be quite rewarding. But I'll pass.

    Thanks for a very thoughtful and professional report.
    Nov 23, 2014. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hain Celestial: 2 Charts The Bulls Don't Want You To See [View article]
    I think further research by investors/speculators would be a good idea. First step, look at the financials and read the footnotes. 2nd step. Evaluate the adjustments. 3rd step. Read other reports on the company. 4th step. Check the stock's technicals, which look very strong. 5th step. Look at the percentage of the stock owned by institutions and management.
    Nov 23, 2014. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo acquiring BrightRoll for $640M in cash [View news story]
    Well, we've had Yahoo mail accounts for a long time. And we're leaving Yahoo because of it's clunky mail settings which change reply addresses to live.com and don't let you fix the problem. Actually, I stopped using my Yahoo mail accounts some time ago because they don't integrated with other mail programs very well.

    Lot of my Mac-using friends are using gmail.

    Just going to yahoo.com is annoying. Lots of junk news stories and stories with hard left biases, reflecting those of Yahoo's CEO.

    Bottom line: Yahoo's losing users, which makes its ad platform irrelevant as Google dominates the space.
    Nov 11, 2014. 06:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Aboard The Dividend Train, Part 2 [View article]
    I recently bought NUE figuring it will profit from the rail car and infrastructure boom. It's up more than 8% in the last couple of months. Need to look at X as well, because it makes a lot of the specialty plate steel, I think. Need to check that out. X is M* 2 star. NUE is 3* with $59 est. fair value. 2.72% yield. Too late.

    Rail roads have pricing power in both energy and agriculture markets. Fuel prices are declining at the moment. Liability and insurance premiums (reinsurance for the self insured) must be soaring. Need to look on ROIC and ROA and Valuentum's dividend cushions on these stocks. Valuentum has UNP in its Best Ideas portfolio.
    Aug 27, 2014. 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Utility Stocks To Consider Now [View article]
    I dumped ED after NYC elected its new mayor. To me, the political risk is just too high.

    On point and figure charts, EXC has a price objective of $60. It closed at $32.77 today. M* gives it four stars with an estimated fair value of $40, which is down from its $42 estimate of a few months ago. EXC yields 3.7%, which can be easily doubled with covered call trading.

    Valuentum.com has PPL in its Dividend Growth Portfolio for diversification purposes only.

    I'm under water on EXC.
    Aug 27, 2014. 11:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expected Improvements In Subscriber Base Set To Boost CenturyLink's Top And Bottom-Lines [View article]
    What is Prism TV?
    In what neighborhoods is CTL going gigabyte? What's the plan?

    I'm a CTL customer in a gigabyte metro area, but we've seen no promotions for the new services.

    Indeed, most in our area are using Comcast.
    Aug 22, 2014. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley: Kinder Morgan deal an overall plus but with some downside [View news story]
    I'm wondering what KMI's depreciation expenses will be and how will they affect it's effective tax rate?
    Aug 18, 2014. 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar - Investors Ignore Low Quality And Financially Engineered Earnings [View article]
    Long-term investors should tour the new Caterpillar museum in Peoria, IL. You'll see how the company develops products, engineers quality, uses robots and automation in manufacturing and wins customers with its strong dealer/service network.

    Cat is one of the most ethical companies in the U.S. and in the world. And it has been a pioneer in globalization.

    Its primary strength, I think is that all of its products are bought by customers who demand quality, high uptime's and incredible service and are willing to pay premium prices to obtain the lowest cost of ownership.

    I have owned CAT for a long time. My effective dividend yield is close to 100%. But I worry about CAT's exposure to Russia, China and the Middle East.
    Jul 25, 2014. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why AIG Is Our Favorite Insurer [View article]
    AIG looks like a very over bought bubble stock to me.
    Jun 24, 2014. 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Partners' Return To Distribution Growth Was Predictable [View article]
    What is important to me is that Valuentum is bullish on both the ETP and KMP complexes, which, over time, including cap gains, should yield me more than 10% annually in total returns.
    Jun 23, 2014. 12:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Kinder Morgan Energy Partners Is Alright In Our Book [View article]
    I've subscribed to Valuentum for close to two years. Before trading, I check reports and ratings at Valuentum and Morningstar where I've subscribed since the mid '80s.

    Valuentum offers its Best Ideas and Dividend Growth portfolios, which have been pretty stable since I subscribed. The portfolios are less useful as guides for buying stocks than the watch lists that are published in the newsletters.

    Often, however, a high VBI stock or a stock trading at 60% to 75% of Valuentum's estimated fair value looks horrible on the charts. That is confusing because Valuentum supposedly considers momentum as well as DCF valuations. In such cases, I go by the charts and other momentum indicators rather than act on Valuentum's and M*'s ratings.

    As for KMP, KMR and KMI, I think they are good investments at this time because they are under valued relative to their estimated fair values. And they're recovering from attacks by the shorts who've probably covered their positions at a profit by now.
    Jun 20, 2014. 04:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would You Do With A Million Dollars? [View article]
    1. Eat cheap, healthy veggies, fruits, proteins.
    2. Buy a 10-yr-old 42-ft motorhome for under $100k and live in it full time in a nice, safe RV park. rvt.com.
    3. Don't travel.
    4. Don't contribute.
    5. Don't do addictions---smoking, drinking, drugs, Starbucks.
    6. Skip cable tv, Comcast, etc. and live near a good library where you can surf the internet for free.
    7. Exercise 1-2 hrs a day to stay healthy.
    8. No sky diving, mountain climbing, motorcycles, etc.
    9. Drive your car 500k miles.
    10. Stay married.
    11. Be lucky in health and investing.
    Jun 9, 2014. 01:34 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would You Do With A Million Dollars? [View article]
    I would keep it to 15 or 20 stocks. That's all you need to be diversified, according to studies I've read about.
    Jun 9, 2014. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning +3.7%; optical, environmental sales fuel Q1 beat [View news story]
    GLW's GAAP earnings fell 39%. Their core earnings, which don't include currency losses or some other non operating numbers, were up? I bought a few shares last week, but I'm not sure I will stay in this stock. It's playing games with its numbers. GAAP is what counts for me. I just took my tiny loss. I don't like companies that play games with speculators.
    Apr 28, 2014. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon boosted as Credit Suisse says bottom is in [View news story]
    MorningStar's estimated fair value for EXC has been at about $42 for a long time. M* says consider selling at $56.70. Valuentum.com's discounted cash flow fair value estimate is $37 with a range of $30 to $44.

    The still bearish EXC point and figure chart price objective still is $13. Support is at $26 and resistance is at $37 on the PNF chart. The 200-day moving average is $33.38.

    EXC July 32 calls are $1.45 bid, $1.55 ask with a 57% probability that the stock will be above $32 by mid July when the July contract expires. The probability that it will top $34 is 44%; $35, 22%; $36, 12%. Might be smart to do a covered call at the $35 or $36 July strikes.

    But I'm glad I haven't written covered calls on EXC. It would have been called away and I would have missed this move.
    Mar 21, 2014. 11:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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