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Donald Johnson

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  • Exelon boosted as Credit Suisse says bottom is in [View news story]
    MorningStar's estimated fair value for EXC has been at about $42 for a long time. M* says consider selling at $56.70. Valuentum.com's discounted cash flow fair value estimate is $37 with a range of $30 to $44.

    The still bearish EXC point and figure chart price objective still is $13. Support is at $26 and resistance is at $37 on the PNF chart. The 200-day moving average is $33.38.

    EXC July 32 calls are $1.45 bid, $1.55 ask with a 57% probability that the stock will be above $32 by mid July when the July contract expires. The probability that it will top $34 is 44%; $35, 22%; $36, 12%. Might be smart to do a covered call at the $35 or $36 July strikes.

    But I'm glad I haven't written covered calls on EXC. It would have been called away and I would have missed this move.
    Mar 21 11:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Dow Industrials Stocks For Swing And Long-Term Traders [View article]
    You're welcome, Rose. And thanks for the feedback.
    Mar 10 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Dow Industrials Stocks For Swing And Long-Term Traders [View article]
    The point and figure chart price objective for Visa (V) is $258, not $99. I've asked the editors to correct the mistake. Sorry for the confusion.
    Mar 10 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Dow Industrials Stocks For Swing And Long-Term Traders [View article]
    I only proof read four times. Writers are their worst editors. Thanks for the catch.
    Mar 10 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: A 10% High-Yield Alternative To REITs And MLPs [View article]
    Just read a very respected analyst who says Seadrill shouldn't be paying any dividends because it's cash flow and debt don't justify it. FYI.
    Mar 2 06:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pain Has Only Just Begun [View article]
    6% is not a big deal. It's the 15% to 20% that has people turning more bearish.

    What I haven't figured out is whether fee-driven portfolio managers and hedge funds can or will get out of the way and let the market correct? Or will they continue to pour money into the markets? Cash flow numbers for mutual funds, ETFs and hedge funds are critical given the small participation of individuals. Don't you think?
    Feb 7 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Revisited [View article]
    EXC already is one of the largest utilities. It's advantages are its nuclear expertise and plants. I think its acquisition of Consolidated was a big mistake. It should focus on its core nuclear plants, which it can expand relatively faster than a competitor can build a greenfield nuclear plant. EPA regulations stand to give EXC a competitive advantage despite natural gas, which is at seasonal highs that probably won't last long.
    Feb 6 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Revisited [View article]
    The reason I'm not very bullish on utilities is that power prices are depressed and, because of the increasing efficiency of commercial customers and competition from natural gas, those prices look like they'll need years to recover.
    Feb 6 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Revisited [View article]
    I'm under water on this stock. My yield's around 3.5% at this point. Morningstar's estimated FV is $42. That's what keeps me in the stock until something better comes along. It's up YTD.

    My comments simply are reactions to statements that do or don't make sense to me.

    I'm not a stock groupie.
    Feb 6 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Revisited [View article]
    You might want to read up on the history of utilities and how the current approaches to regulating and managing utilities evolved in the 20s and 30s. You can't compare the managers of utilities to those of CAT, GE, AAPL or other non utilities.

    The expertise of a utility manager is in dealing with regulators and keeping the lights on at a price that maximizes the profits utility regulators allow.
    Feb 6 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good Luck Satya! Good Luck Microsoft! [View article]
    For me, she's easier to understand and follow.
    Feb 6 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Reasons Why I Am Bullish On Caterpillar [View article]
    I think CAT has written down some of that Bucyrus good will. Check the year end earnings report. Most acquisitions are bad deals for acquiring companies and their shareholders. The last number I saw said 70% of deals hurt the buyers' earnings at least over the near term.
    Feb 6 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Reasons Why I Am Bullish On Caterpillar [View article]
    Frauds happen. Mistakes are made. Good companies survive those who cheat them and fraud. Bad companies can be destroyed. HPQ also is dealing with fraud or accounting errors on its Autonomy acquisition. Due diligence sometimes can be foiled by people who don't have integrity. CAT has been very open about it's problem with that acquisition and says in its fourth quarter report that it has reached a settlement with the seller who has paid CAT several million dollars, I think it was. Check the year end press release.
    Feb 6 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Reasons Why I Am Bullish On Caterpillar [View article]
    If you have an online account, you probably can find a tab that shows you the "greeks" on a stock's option chain. The delta tells you the probability that a stock will finish in the money on a call or put in a given expiration month. You might want to search SA and the web for "stock options greeks" and for #stock delta or "stock options probabilities."
    Feb 6 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble Is Still Expensive But Investors Have Options [View article]
    Well, USG up $3.43. I'll be called. About a 25% annualized return in 104 days. I'll take that. Of course, if I'd time the USG market better, I wouldn't have written calls and my gain would be $1.82 / share greater. Covered calls can be risky in terms of the chance you'll lose a gain because your strike is too low as mine is on USG and may be on CAT, up $1.62 to $93.55.
    Feb 6 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
451 Comments
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