Does the Super Bowl Help Boost Advertisers' Stock Prices? [View article]
I thought the SB ads were ineffective. None grabbed me, and most just didn't make the sale even though I paid attention to them. At this point, after spending the day doing other things, I don't remember any of the ads, but I do remember the part of the terrible half-time show that I quickly stopped watching after a couple of minutes.
AOL-HuffPost: All the News That's Fit to Merge [View article]
Will AH spend so much time trying to turn AOL around that HP will lose it's focus and readers, not to mention advertisers?
AH started HP with a clean sheet. She got to hire her kind of people and create a culture that works for her. How will she do as she attempts to change the various dysfunctional cultures at AOL, which will be defended by their stake holders until the bitter end?
HP offers very little real journalism. I doubt that real journalists respect AH as a journalist. They see her as a very successful gold miner and self promoter, not their kind of lady or boss. One thing few understand is that left wing journalists are very conservative when they see their cherished institutions under attack by those who want to change them. Think Mubarack. He's no more wrong headed nor stubborn than left wing journalists who are worried about their power and pocket books. Good luck with that AH.
I think AOL and AH face much bigger challenges than journalistic gurus and investors comprehend.
AriannaOL: Why AOL Is Smart to Acquire Huffington Post [View article]
Unless AOL acquires Seeking Alpha and Politico, it will never match them in their niches.
Both SA and Politico are successful be cause they help readers make money and gain political power. HP is not where speculators and politicians go for information. It is all about hard left opinions and celebrities. And while I don't read celebrity or sport sites, I'm assuming the sites that specialize in those areas are much better than the HP.
As for Huffington, while she frequently appears on the talk shows, I've never heard her say anything that suggests she really understands American business, politics or people.
AOL's Big Play: Is Buying HuffPo Enough? [View article]
AOL and HP are not among the many news sites I surf several times a day. I never go to AOL and visit HP once or twice a month. AH knows Washington, NY and Hollywood, not America.
Why You Should Read Caterpillar's Q4 Earnings Report [View article]
CAT's economic forecasts are among the most credible and honest that you'll find, but they're not very detailed.
The way to think about CAT is not only as a global company, but also as an industrial conglomerate with a simple strategy. It sells to sophisticate materials handling and moving customers that value low total operating costs, demand high quality products and service logistics and can pass ever rising prices on to their customers when times are good.
Take a look at CAT's product lines in its online annual report. You'll see that a wide variety of machinery uses CAT's engines, gas turbines and other components and that it makes a nice profit financing its customers' purchases.
CAT and its dealers employ more than 200,000 world wide, making it about 1/6th the size of Walmart.
Since I wrote the first comment, I've been doing some research.
Take the Iowa State U. Corn Suitability Rating, which helps farmers and investors value farms in Iowa, but nowhere else. In MN, it's the Crop Productivity Index. Then you can research the soils on your farm, insecticides, herbicides, continuous corn, farm management, etc.
So, to be a smart investor in farmland, you not only have to understand the markets for the commodities and the chemicals and other inputs, but also how soils, climates and management affect ROI.
Check out the forum at agweb.com to see the technical issues farmers deal with all the time.
Then think about how hard or easy it would be to find a good tenant or to rent your land for a decent ROI. As Imrsmk found, farming is a tough business, which is one reason we only have a million farmers in this country today. Only the smart and strong thrive in farming.
1. Politicians manipulate commodity and currency prices frequently. See the USA, Japan, Europe, S America. So predictability is low.
2. Profitability in farming requires being in the business for generations, not decades.
3. It is very difficult to landlord a farm unless you have a degree in agronomy, know how to play the futures markets and have more time than it takes to manage a portfolio of mutual funds or ETFs. I've never found a good book, seminar, web site or message board that serves farm landlords. Farm managers are more expensive than most financial advisers.
4. Like all real estate, farms and farm land are illiquid assets. You pay big commissions when you buy and sell, and a reliable appraisal costs $1,200 or more a crack even though it can be out of date in a month.
5. After you split your profits with your tenant or whoever farms your place, you'll find you could make more long term by investing in moderately appreciating stocks.
Steve Jobs (AAPL) takes medical leave of absence, leaving COO Tim Cook in charge again. Jobs: "Unfortunately, the curiosity over my personal health continues to be a distraction not only for me and my family, but everyone else at Apple as well. In addition, during the past week I have learned that my health-related issues are more complex than I originally thought." AAPL -8% in Frankfurt. (PR) [View news story]
Having owned Apple products for going on 25 years and under-estimated its stock since it went public, I'm very sorry to see the news about Jobs' health. It doesn't look good in any way.
Tim Cook, however, obviously has proved that he can run the company, given its performance during Jobs' last medical leave. The board's vote of confidence in the form of a nearly $60 million bonus shows that they consider him the heir apparent.
If AAPL's stock stagnates, as appears likely, it won't be because of Jobs' health problems, I think.
1. It's losing its dominance in smart phones 2. Based on my experience with the iPad, I think it's a fad that won't last. 3. iPod seems to be at the saturation stage. 4. Consumers, politicians don't like the fact that Apple app developers track users' intrusively, and that could hinder ad sales long-term for Apple, Google, etc. 5. Politicians/dictators around the world are trying to censor the Web. 6. It's only a matter of time before EU anti-trusters Google Apple. 7. Content producers seem to be favoring Android over iOS. 8. Price competition is intensifying as more credible competitors take on Apple.
On the flip side:
1. Apple stands to win new customers via Verizon and expansion into new countries. 2. Apple technology continues to lead. 3. Apple has a huge installed base that upgrades every 2 years or so. 4. Apple's gaining penetration in corp., institutional markets. 5. Most conversions still seem to be going toward Apple and away from MSFT. 6. AAPL is gaining market share in PC markets and has lots of market share room to grow.
Can You Ethically Invest in Unethical Companies? [View article]
It is not the job of investors to regulate companies. As the article explains, speculators don't have the power to change a company's behavior unless they can seize operating control. Few can do that.
The ethical thing to do is to maximize trading profits for yourself, your clients or your beneficiaries. By so doing, your buying increases stock prices, giving winners more capital so they be even bigger winners, hire more people and pay more taxes and serve their customers. Going with winners makes you, your clients and beneficiaries wealthier, which means you pay more taxes and are less likely to be dependent on society and taxpayers for a wide variety of services.
Investing in "socially responsible" companies can be both futile, dumb and "unethical" in that you deny capital to companies that are more likely to expand their work forces. By putting money into "ethical companies" that are losers—not all are—you put money in companies that will earn less, pay lower taxes and pay lower dividends, and you create an opportunity cost for potential winners and the people they might employ and serve.
If you can find companies that are both winners and in your eyes "ethical," invest in them. Most companies are basically ethical in the eyes of reasonable, thoughtful people. Remember that it's easy to call a company that is doing something you don't like "unethical," just as a lot of sales people call their competitors "unethical" mostly because they can't beat them. So don't let the "ethics" fanatics tell you what to buy or not buy.
Indeed, if a company like MO looks like a winner, buy it because it meets your needs for income and capital appreciation and will help you be a socially responsible, self sufficient tax payer. While I strongly oppose smoking, I own MO because it pays a big dividend and it's going up.
You can rationalize almost anything, I guess.
Just some first reactions to an interesting piece.
Wal-Mart's (WMT) stock has become as discounted as its merchandise, writes Barron's. At a recent $49.43, its shares are cheap compared to rivals, even before factoring in ambitious earnings estimates. If the company can boost U.S. traffic, shares could rise more than 30%. [View news story]
In most markets, WMT pays better wages and benefits than the retailers it put out of business.
While I haven't blogged on investing for awhile, I will sooner than later. I blog as a retired financial writer who is a speculator and investor.
What has bugged me is that investors relations people won't take calls from bloggers who are writing about their companies and stocks. They prefer to talk to Reuters, Bloomberg and Dow Jones/AP as well as buy side and sell side analysts. This is even though whatever those organizations write about the companies gets as "buried" as anything that is written about a company for a blog or Seeking Alpha.
What IRs don't realize or care about is that bloggers have more time, expertise and space to write about a company than the mainstream and financial media do. And their articles are read by more people than a lot of analysts' reports are. Also, some bloggers are a lot less conflicted and more objective and fair than the analysts are.
In my experience, many IR folks are very smart and very good writers. They're also used to playing by the rules, protecting their bosses and staying out of trouble. They're pretty risk averse.
Executives write articles for trade pubs all of the time. Those who write such articles tend to be strong, bold and proud of what they are doing. They are good writers and clear thinkers. Not all executives can write or like to write. Not all are used to talking straight with anyone, and many are where they are because they are good corporate politicians, not good entrepreneurs or leaders.
So SA's challenge is to seek out executives who are known as people who like to communicate and sell. It also could figure out a way to help its contributors who aren't analysts or money managers get through to IR folks and CEOs, etc.
The best kind of articles that corporate executives can write are those that talk about new technologies, market trends and the impact of new laws and regulations on their industries. If an executive shows expertise and analytical skills, I think that will help the executive's career and company.
And, no, I don't think I ever published an article by a PR person except when they wrote for my marketing and pr publications.
When a company needs a government grant to develop or grow its business, you know that venture capitalists, private equity investors and leveraged buyout firms have looked at the company and have decided that it doesn't have a future. If the technology had a future, why wouldn't an energy company with deep pockets buy it?
Sorry, but this is another case of Colorado Democrats getting Obama to subsidize a green company that can't make it on its own.
The CEO of Adobe has made a fool of himself on wsj.com, where the comments are scathing.
Adobe's handling of Flash is as horrible as J&J's handling of the Tylenol disaster was a classic in crisis management. I'd never buy the stock of a company as out of touch and disingenuous as Adobe is.
Healthcare Reform Brings New Opportunity to Pharmacy Benefit Managers [View article]
The number of people who can afford to buy health insurance but don't is around 15 million. Under ObamaCare, Insurers must take enrollees with pre-existing conditions. The ObamaCare penaltlly for not buying insurance is way less than the cost of health insurance. This means that healtlhy people will stop buying health insurance and just pay the fine to avoid any hassles with the IRS . When they get sick, they'll buy insurance to cover financially unaffordable bills. When they recover, if they do, they'll drop the insurance.
Sales of prescription drugs depend on how many patients see their doctors for wellness and preventive care. If people drop insurance, which irrationally covers part of the cost of such visits, visits will drop. Fewer prescriptions will be written. Fewer lab tests will be done and fewer people will be admitted to hospitals. And, no, it's not certain that if patients don't take maintenance drugs they'll spend more on drugs later.
ObamaCare also creates a $500 million program that will evaluate drugs and procedures as never before. Marginally improved drugs that pharmas have promoted to extend their patents won't be approved. There will be more generic drug sales. As generics gain share of market and prices drop, PBMS will see their revenues and profits drop.
Also, if ObamaCare drives as many physicians into early retirement as seems likely, there will be fewer prescriptions written, which will hurt pharmas, PBMs and drug store chains.
Both Republicans and Democrats are in the habit of making health care businesses as unprofitable as possible. If they decide PBMs are the useless middle men that they are, they'll impose new regulations that will hurt their profitability.
Even if the GOP regains some power in Congress, the political environment for the hospitals, physicians and pharmas that supported ObamaCare will be toxic for a long time.
Healthcare Reform Brings New Opportunity to Pharmacy Benefit Managers [View article]
Under ObamaCare, drug companies are discounting to Medicaid and Medicare. They're not going to negotiate lower prices with PBMs. So what will PBMs do? Distribute drugs to end users? How much is that service worth? Both Republicans and Democrats will put the squeeze on the PBMS along with insurers and employers. And if more people game the insurance markets, as I think they will, there will be fewer insured customers for the PBMS. Not a bright outlook? How am I wrong?
Does the Super Bowl Help Boost Advertisers' Stock Prices? [View article]
AOL-HuffPost: All the News That's Fit to Merge [View article]
AH started HP with a clean sheet. She got to hire her kind of people and create a culture that works for her. How will she do as she attempts to change the various dysfunctional cultures at AOL, which will be defended by their stake holders until the bitter end?
HP offers very little real journalism. I doubt that real journalists respect AH as a journalist. They see her as a very successful gold miner and self promoter, not their kind of lady or boss. One thing few understand is that left wing journalists are very conservative when they see their cherished institutions under attack by those who want to change them. Think Mubarack. He's no more wrong headed nor stubborn than left wing journalists who are worried about their power and pocket books. Good luck with that AH.
I think AOL and AH face much bigger challenges than journalistic gurus and investors comprehend.
AriannaOL: Why AOL Is Smart to Acquire Huffington Post [View article]
Both SA and Politico are successful be cause they help readers make money and gain political power. HP is not where speculators and politicians go for information. It is all about hard left opinions and celebrities. And while I don't read celebrity or sport sites, I'm assuming the sites that specialize in those areas are much better than the HP.
As for Huffington, while she frequently appears on the talk shows, I've never heard her say anything that suggests she really understands American business, politics or people.
AOL's Big Play: Is Buying HuffPo Enough? [View article]
Why You Should Read Caterpillar's Q4 Earnings Report [View article]
The way to think about CAT is not only as a global company, but also as an industrial conglomerate with a simple strategy. It sells to sophisticate materials handling and moving customers that value low total operating costs, demand high quality products and service logistics and can pass ever rising prices on to their customers when times are good.
Take a look at CAT's product lines in its online annual report. You'll see that a wide variety of machinery uses CAT's engines, gas turbines and other components and that it makes a nice profit financing its customers' purchases.
CAT and its dealers employ more than 200,000 world wide, making it about 1/6th the size of Walmart.
Ways to Profit From Farm Land [View article]
Take the Iowa State U. Corn Suitability Rating, which helps farmers and investors value farms in Iowa, but nowhere else. In MN, it's the Crop Productivity Index. Then you can research the soils on your farm, insecticides, herbicides, continuous corn, farm management, etc.
So, to be a smart investor in farmland, you not only have to understand the markets for the commodities and the chemicals and other inputs, but also how soils, climates and management affect ROI.
Check out the forum at agweb.com to see the technical issues farmers deal with all the time.
Then think about how hard or easy it would be to find a good tenant or to rent your land for a decent ROI. As Imrsmk found, farming is a tough business, which is one reason we only have a million farmers in this country today. Only the smart and strong thrive in farming.
Ways to Profit From Farm Land [View article]
1. Politicians manipulate commodity and currency prices frequently. See the USA, Japan, Europe, S America. So predictability is low.
2. Profitability in farming requires being in the business for generations, not decades.
3. It is very difficult to landlord a farm unless you have a degree in agronomy, know how to play the futures markets and have more time than it takes to manage a portfolio of mutual funds or ETFs. I've never found a good book, seminar, web site or message board that serves farm landlords. Farm managers are more expensive than most financial advisers.
4. Like all real estate, farms and farm land are illiquid assets. You pay big commissions when you buy and sell, and a reliable appraisal costs $1,200 or more a crack even though it can be out of date in a month.
5. After you split your profits with your tenant or whoever farms your place, you'll find you could make more long term by investing in moderately appreciating stocks.
Just some thoughts.
Steve Jobs (AAPL) takes medical leave of absence, leaving COO Tim Cook in charge again. Jobs: "Unfortunately, the curiosity over my personal health continues to be a distraction not only for me and my family, but everyone else at Apple as well. In addition, during the past week I have learned that my health-related issues are more complex than I originally thought." AAPL -8% in Frankfurt. (PR) [View news story]
Tim Cook, however, obviously has proved that he can run the company, given its performance during Jobs' last medical leave. The board's vote of confidence in the form of a nearly $60 million bonus shows that they consider him the heir apparent.
If AAPL's stock stagnates, as appears likely, it won't be because of Jobs' health problems, I think.
1. It's losing its dominance in smart phones
2. Based on my experience with the iPad, I think it's a fad that won't last.
3. iPod seems to be at the saturation stage.
4. Consumers, politicians don't like the fact that Apple app developers track users' intrusively, and that could hinder ad sales long-term for Apple, Google, etc.
5. Politicians/dictators around the world are trying to censor the Web.
6. It's only a matter of time before EU anti-trusters Google Apple.
7. Content producers seem to be favoring Android over iOS.
8. Price competition is intensifying as more credible competitors take on Apple.
On the flip side:
1. Apple stands to win new customers via Verizon and expansion into new countries.
2. Apple technology continues to lead.
3. Apple has a huge installed base that upgrades every 2 years or so.
4. Apple's gaining penetration in corp., institutional markets.
5. Most conversions still seem to be going toward Apple and away from MSFT.
6. AAPL is gaining market share in PC markets and has lots of market share room to grow.
Can You Ethically Invest in Unethical Companies? [View article]
The ethical thing to do is to maximize trading profits for yourself, your clients or your beneficiaries. By so doing, your buying increases stock prices, giving winners more capital so they be even bigger winners, hire more people and pay more taxes and serve their customers. Going with winners makes you, your clients and beneficiaries wealthier, which means you pay more taxes and are less likely to be dependent on society and taxpayers for a wide variety of services.
Investing in "socially responsible" companies can be both futile, dumb and "unethical" in that you deny capital to companies that are more likely to expand their work forces. By putting money into "ethical companies" that are losers—not all are—you put money in companies that will earn less, pay lower taxes and pay lower dividends, and you create an opportunity cost for potential winners and the people they might employ and serve.
If you can find companies that are both winners and in your eyes "ethical," invest in them. Most companies are basically ethical in the eyes of reasonable, thoughtful people. Remember that it's easy to call a company that is doing something you don't like "unethical," just as a lot of sales people call their competitors "unethical" mostly because they can't beat them. So don't let the "ethics" fanatics tell you what to buy or not buy.
Indeed, if a company like MO looks like a winner, buy it because it meets your needs for income and capital appreciation and will help you be a socially responsible, self sufficient tax payer. While I strongly oppose smoking, I own MO because it pays a big dividend and it's going up.
You can rationalize almost anything, I guess.
Just some first reactions to an interesting piece.
Wal-Mart's (WMT) stock has become as discounted as its merchandise, writes Barron's. At a recent $49.43, its shares are cheap compared to rivals, even before factoring in ambitious earnings estimates. If the company can boost U.S. traffic, shares could rise more than 30%. [View news story]
Why don't IR people use Seeking Alpha? [View instapost]
What has bugged me is that investors relations people won't take calls from bloggers who are writing about their companies and stocks. They prefer to talk to Reuters, Bloomberg and Dow Jones/AP as well as buy side and sell side analysts. This is even though whatever those organizations write about the companies gets as "buried" as anything that is written about a company for a blog or Seeking Alpha.
What IRs don't realize or care about is that bloggers have more time, expertise and space to write about a company than the mainstream and financial media do. And their articles are read by more people than a lot of analysts' reports are. Also, some bloggers are a lot less conflicted and more objective and fair than the analysts are.
In my experience, many IR folks are very smart and very good writers. They're also used to playing by the rules, protecting their bosses and staying out of trouble. They're pretty risk averse.
Executives write articles for trade pubs all of the time. Those who write such articles tend to be strong, bold and proud of what they are doing. They are good writers and clear thinkers. Not all executives can write or like to write. Not all are used to talking straight with anyone, and many are where they are because they are good corporate politicians, not good entrepreneurs or leaders.
So SA's challenge is to seek out executives who are known as people who like to communicate and sell. It also could figure out a way to help its contributors who aren't analysts or money managers get through to IR folks and CEOs, etc.
The best kind of articles that corporate executives can write are those that talk about new technologies, market trends and the impact of new laws and regulations on their industries. If an executive shows expertise and analytical skills, I think that will help the executive's career and company.
And, no, I don't think I ever published an article by a PR person except when they wrote for my marketing and pr publications.
Betting on Diesel Technology [View article]
Sorry, but this is another case of Colorado Democrats getting Obama to subsidize a green company that can't make it on its own.
Flash! Steve Buries Adobe Cash Cow [View article]
Adobe's handling of Flash is as horrible as J&J's handling of the Tylenol disaster was a classic in crisis management. I'd never buy the stock of a company as out of touch and disingenuous as Adobe is.
Healthcare Reform Brings New Opportunity to Pharmacy Benefit Managers [View article]
Sales of prescription drugs depend on how many patients see their doctors for wellness and preventive care. If people drop insurance, which irrationally covers part of the cost of such visits, visits will drop. Fewer prescriptions will be written. Fewer lab tests will be done and fewer people will be admitted to hospitals. And, no, it's not certain that if patients don't take maintenance drugs they'll spend more on drugs later.
ObamaCare also creates a $500 million program that will evaluate drugs and procedures as never before. Marginally improved drugs that pharmas have promoted to extend their patents won't be approved. There will be more generic drug sales. As generics gain share of market and prices drop, PBMS will see their revenues and profits drop.
Also, if ObamaCare drives as many physicians into early retirement as seems likely, there will be fewer prescriptions written, which will hurt pharmas, PBMs and drug store chains.
Both Republicans and Democrats are in the habit of making health care businesses as unprofitable as possible. If they decide PBMs are the useless middle men that they are, they'll impose new regulations that will hurt their profitability.
Even if the GOP regains some power in Congress, the political environment for the hospitals, physicians and pharmas that supported ObamaCare will be toxic for a long time.
Healthcare Reform Brings New Opportunity to Pharmacy Benefit Managers [View article]