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Donald Johnson

 
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  • How Apple Gets To $400 A Share [View article]
    Why are Apple's multiples shrinking? Why is its tremendous earnings history suspect and becoming irrelevant?

    Apple is a typical technology stock. It's enjoyed a long run, now it's another Microsoft in the making.

    Another way to look at AAPL is to think about the low multiples on home builders' stocks. They had low PE ratios pre-2009 and will have them forever.

    Why?

    Because speculators know that bubbles burst.
    Jan 14 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Steve Jobs Isn't Sick - Argus [View article]
    I don't know about Steve. Until he makes an appearance where we can see how he's doing, I'm betting on the worst, which is one reason why I sold the stock a couple of weeks ago. The other reason is that despite the busy Apple store I saw a couple of times before Christmas, I think consumer spending will be weak enough to hurt AAPL, regardless of any new products.
    Jan 2 05:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Greatest Idea Yet [View article]
    AAPL is $83.64. PE is 15.57 and forward pe, for what it's worth, is 12.3, which means the very unreliable PEG is a very cheap 0.6. Relative strength on daily charts shows stock is oversold and has been since early Oct. Trading below 50- and 200-dma. Negative sar and macd. Bollinger band width still rising, which is bearish. Point and figure price price objective is $60

    Annual AT&T cost is, what, $1,200? How many out-of-work Apple enthusiasts will spend $1,200 on iPhone, another $1,200 on cable, Dish, etc. and $12,000 to $30,000 on housing, plus transportation, etc. Priorities?

    In this economy, the fundamentals are impossible to forecast. Thus, uncertainty could keep the stock in a trading range for some time, and price momentum is bearish.

    Morningstar estimates AAPL's fair value is $169, but M* has been very slow in lowering its fair value estimates. Stock is selling for only 2.3 times sales per share and for a relatively low 7.78 times cash flow? Why is the market pricing the stock this way?

    Again, uncertainty. I own some AAPL, but I won't buy more until the daily, weekly and point and figure charts are bullish.
    Nov 21 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Biggest Rumor: iPod or Jobs? [View article]
    Good, relevant article. I wouldn't buy the stock because of uncertainty about Jobs' health. But he seemed to resolve that uncertainty with his leak to the NYT that he's ok. Some people aren't sure they should believe him, and that question will have to be resolved by each individual speculator.
    Aug 28 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Problems - Bad to the Core? [View article]
    Good article. I've bought a couple of hundred macs and Apple products since 1986, and they've always been problematic in one way or another, but never the disasters you get with WinTel.

    I'm having problems with my Treo 700 on Sprint and looking to switch to iPhone, but until it's clear that Apple has fixed the 3G iPhone, I'll sit tight.

    The .Mac to MeMobile transistion has been a fiasco. Fortunately, I've been able to work around it, but MeMobile is much more difficult to use as a backup drive, because it has problems transferring several files at a time. I also think its documentation is shallow and, generally, unhelpful. When my seldom-used $400 iPod died, I didn't replace it.

    I'm waiting for the next generation of iMacs and MacBook Pros before I replace my 5-yr-old iMacs. My 18-mo-old HP Pavillion laptop is ok, but I prefer my wife's MacBook Pro when we're on the road.
    Aug 27 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Not to Upgrade to the New iPhone 3G [View article]
    I think I'll still dump Sprint and my Palm Treo for the new iPhone.
    Aug 7 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Steve Jobs Leaked That He Doesn't Have Cancer [View article]
    With people like Al Gore on Apple's board, how could you predict what the company would do without Jobs?
    Jul 28 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: How Big Is the Potential iPhone Market? [View article]
    Apple just released a very buggy upgrade to its operating system. OS 10.5.3 released Friday is causing major problems for many Mac users.

    Wonder when analysts and the media will force Apple to address the problems and fix them. See Apple's support forums.
    Jun 3 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Is All This Angst Really Warranted? [View article]
    Fundamentals are important, but so is price action, which tells you what the market thinks about a company's prospects. Obviously, the market is worried about consumer and business spending declines and their potential impact on Apple. Apple has a much broader market than it used to, and it will be more subject to fads and economic cycles than ever before. In a way, AAPL is an interesting leading indicator for the economy, don't you think?

    Don't fall in love with a stock.
    Feb 25 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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