Donald Johnson

Is Something Brewing at Archer Daniels Midland?

The profit taking thought makes sense. ADM's core competency is trading. So it has made a bundle on shares that it bought back, and it's selling.

Talk about insider selling!

Is Something Brewing at Archer Daniels Midland?

How serious is the growing political backlash against ethanol in the U.S. and around the world?

Is it possible that ADM and its peers may find themselves sitting with unused ethanol capacity in three, five or 10 years?

Are investors appropriately evaluating the risks that political ethanol subsidies could be taken away and even replaced by taxes?

What are the chances that corn ethanol can be replaced by non corn ethanol, and are those expectations too optimistic? Why or why not?

Who will buy into the ADM offering? Smart investors or naive ones?

It's Now 'Official': Ethanol Is a Scam

For speculators, the questions are:

1. Will the Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee wrest control of the presidential primaries from Iowa, or will that state be able to continue to black mail the rest of the country by forcing the candidates to pledge continued support of ethanol?

2. Will consumer anger over high food prices and rising inflation exceed their concerns about the environment, dependence on foreigners for oil an Al Gore's phony claims that humans are affecting global warming? What will be the tipping point between voters support of the ethanol farm subsidy and their demands that politicians relieve rising food prices and starvation in third-world countries?

3. John McCain is anti-ethanol, but Obama and Clinton swear by it. Will this be an issue in the 2008 general election, and who will win?

4. At what point will ADM and its ethanol-producing competitors decide that the future of ethanol is dim and begin cutting back on capital expenditures in ethanol plants?

5. Will coal and nuclear power gain followers as ethanol loses support, and when is that likely to happen? Don't hold your breath.