Thanks for your comments. It's true that we don't have any say in how the editors tag the article. And it was originally published on a site primarily read by advisors rather than individual investors. Yet I think the point is somewhat universal and something that all of us who hope to retire (or are retired) want to know--what kind of spending rule will work in retirement?
ECRI's Bold Recession Call: Even Expert Forecasts Can't Be Trusted [View article]
I agree it is too early to know for sure. That's why I wrote "it's possible we won't have a recession at all." On the other hand, it's worth noting that the markets are responding as they typically would in an expanding economy. Bottom line: forecasts are tough to implement in an investment policy, even if they prove to be ultimately right. We'll just have to see how it all washes out.
If you look at the chart, you can see that during some periods of time, less than 20% of the HighRS universe is trading above its 50-day MA.
These periods of HighRS under-performance are periodic and should be expected. No strategy is going to be able to outperform all the time (if HighRS always outperformed, the chart would be a horizontal line at the top of chart).
As far as trying to time when you should be invested in HighRS based on a moving average indicator, please read this post:
Forecasting Expected Equity Return [View article]
ECRI's Bold Recession Call: Even Expert Forecasts Can't Be Trusted [View article]
How The Lowest Average Cost Wins [View article]
Buy And Hold Is A Crock [View article]
When Uncertainty Abounds [View article]
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Relative Strength Diffusion Index [View instapost]
These periods of HighRS under-performance are periodic and should be expected. No strategy is going to be able to outperform all the time (if HighRS always outperformed, the chart would be a horizontal line at the top of chart).
As far as trying to time when you should be invested in HighRS based on a moving average indicator, please read this post:
systematicrelativestre.../
Come to our blog for more detailed posts. Thanks for reading!
The Municipal Bond Crisis Is About to Begin [View article]
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