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Doug Eberhardt  

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  • Whipsawed Gold Is Now 'Data Dependent' [View article]
    Gel, I don't disagree at all. One of my 8 indicators is the the stock market hitting new highs. Regarding bonds though, while some money may flow into stocks, and this last run up as some scared the bond bull is over, I don't think it is. I think lower rates are ahead and the Fed, while they may give us the token .25 increase to maintain credibility and keep the CNBC cheerleaders grinning from ear to ear, is only looking at the employment data and ignoring all other data.

    For stock investors I say enjoy the ride whilst you can. For gold investors, your time to shine will come. For me, there is a reason why over the next month I am concentrating on finishing my next book, "Illusions of Wealth" and getting it out to the public before things reverse course.
    May 17, 2015. 10:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whipsawed Gold Is Now 'Data Dependent' [View article]
    Yes, for the summer months as I have said, but in looking at his charts, he says the low will come in August. I was thinking after summer. We shall see.
    May 17, 2015. 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whipsawed Gold Is Now 'Data Dependent' [View article]
    Hey Ar Dog, my studies show gold/silver doing well over the summer months (with exceptions of course). His chart from last year shows this yet he draws lines showing a decline during these months.

    I think we get declines at some point to lower lows, along with a few others prognosticators here, and we get rallies to suck more people in. They are tradeable and most here do trading not hoarding. It is only the buyer of physical gold/silver that want to try and buy the bottom, but they too need to think about one thing; In 2009, the DOW was at 8,500 and a buyer might have said I am going all in and bought. But the DOW fell to 7,500 and another buyer went all in and got a better price at the low. Today, with the DOW at 18,000+, the buyer who bought the DOW at 8500 doesn't really care they paid more for their investment sitting on an 111% gain. They of course could have got a 140% gain buying at the low, but seriously, does it matter that much? Wouldn't to me.
    May 17, 2015. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whipsawed Gold Is Now 'Data Dependent' [View article]
    Interesting read. He went out of his way to find someone negative on gold (Harry Dent) and used the term "gold bug" which gives an indication of his bias against gold from the beginning.

    I am actually with Dent on the deflationary aspect of what's to come, but what I think Dent doesn't understand is the fact that the Fed will intervene. They have to intervene. Their model doesn't work in deflation.

    The author then says that alternatives to gold are "bitcoin, property, and contemporary art." (I am leaving out shares as those should be bought in conjunction with gold in a diversified portfolio and not viewed as "either/or."

    Of those 3, only bitcoin offers immediate liquidity, but bitcoin has too many issues including problems with the supplier (Mt. Gox/others involved in illegal activities); track record, and volatility (just like gold).

    Your average investor is not invested in any of these. Your wealthy investor my be involved in some of these, but they too will buy gold as insurance. These investors also understand asset allocation and take from what is breaking to new highs (stock market), and put it into what has been beaten down (commodities and precious metals).
    May 17, 2015. 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Gold Now, Wait Until It's Under $1,000 [View article]
    The U.S. also has the world's largest military. It is true the debt will always be perpetual because that's how the system works. That's how the Fed works with our government. That's why inflation is needed and the Fed fears deflation. That's why if we do sink further into deflation the Fed will do more QE. The extreme deflationist's don't think the Fed will react, or they may react too slow (I can agree with the latter as a potential). When/if the Fed reacts, then it's the beginning of the road to perdition.

    The reason the dollar is strong is simply because the Euro, Yen, Pound (somewhat) and Canadian Dollar have been weak (outside of last month).
    May 17, 2015. 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Gold Now, Wait Until It's Under $1,000 [View article]
    "with escalating levels of debt will eventually end – badly. I don’t know when it will happen."

    Understanding the economics and monetary issues and looking at price action and some of my other indicators help me get through the maze of how it will end versus where we are now. While my next book "Illusions of Wealth" will go into more detail with answering this question of "when," one has to realize that "fear" has been used for decades as a reason to buy gold. Harry Browne, Jim Dines, Howard Ruff among others have been peddling newsletters since the 70's on the escalating debt and other issues we have or will have. I can paint an ugly picture too, but I also look at the now and call it like I see it.

    Everyone should have some insurance in gold and silver. Those looking for gold and silver as something else might want to not go all in just yet, but dollar cost average into an allocation and hope we go lower to get an overall price. I just don't see us taking off based on my own research. But if someone read Zero Hedge or read Daily Reckoning every day, I'm sure they would disagree with anything I say. They won't debate me though. :-)
    May 15, 2015. 08:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whipsawed Gold Is Now 'Data Dependent' [View article]
    May 15, 2015. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Gold Now, Wait Until It's Under $1,000 [View article]
    thanks insightful. Yeah, many reasons to be bullish. I personally can't wait to switch gears! I did this once before on the way up, and challenged CFP's, CFA's and others as to their logic when it comes to gold. I tried to do it in such a way that didn't confront them, but educate them. It's not a black and white issue and most have no real understanding of precious metals, and this includes the financial services industry (in general) that I was a part of for 20 years.

    As you know, I write about one article a month for Seeking Alpha. I could write more, but just don't have the time as I write for my own site 5 days a week and do other planning for clients plus, I'm writing 2 books and updating my first book this year.

    Going to be a great few years for all of us! Just need a little
    May 15, 2015. 07:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Gold Now, Wait Until It's Under $1,000 [View article]
    Insightful, none yet. If I really wanted to sell a lot more gold and silver I really should join the gold dealer bandwagon and tell buyers what they really want to hear; dollar crash, hyperinflation, bank bail-ins, etc.

    But that's not me.

    Gold will take off as it has before. My clients and those waiting for me to write my all in article won't miss out. And no, we haven't bottomed.

    And please know that when I type this I may come off as cocky. If you spoke with me on the phone I don't come off this way. I come off as about as real as anyone could ask for. I have many people counting on me being right. I don't want to let them down and they respect my honesty (and good prices!).

    May 14, 2015. 07:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Gold Now, Wait Until It's Under $1,000 [View article]
    ratnamsub, I have been calling for higher prices of late:

    Told clients to go long JNUG at 22.82. It's 25.79 now, high of 27.53. Hard stop of 24.48 but told them to keep moving stops up so some may have already locked in 13% plus profit from 2 days ago.

    Gold was $1,226.80 at the high today and is about $5 lower now. Have we peaked? Don't know. I keep stops and take profit.

    Nothing has changed from my title's article on where the price of gold will go.
    May 14, 2015. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks Recovering Despite Lackluster Gold Action [View article]

    I have a good track record and my indicators haven't let me down. :-)

    "At current levels, silver is a much better value than gold."

    I like silver to double or triple before gold does. But we also have to have demand for its use stay consistent.

    I don't see the ratio going below 35:1 and will recommend a conversion from silver to gold then depending on if silver uses increase.

    I look at history since 1971 for my ratio analysis, not historical references but am aware of them (like 16:1 constitutional).
    May 13, 2015. 02:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks Recovering Despite Lackluster Gold Action [View article]
    622, I am not "hoping" gold will go below $1,000 I am saying it will. I could easily take the other side and sell a lot more gold, but I don't. I know all the reason why gold will go higher, but my economic analysis tells me to write what I write. So far, I haven't been too far off in my predictions.

    Been saying I want to see gold break $1,200 and then $1,215. It did today.
    Long JNUG from yesterday at 22.82. Stop 24.50 now.

    May 13, 2015. 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Gold Now, Wait Until It's Under $1,000 [View article]
    Hi Gel,

    First off, because Bogi watches everything I say, ;-) I said this yesterday in my Current Thoughts: "Mining stocks got a boost today with the rise in the price of gold. I said yesterday that I want to see the dollar below 94 and today we got the first move down and gold up. Now I want to see gold above $1,200. We’ll see what tomorrow brings."

    For my ETF Research Trading Service, we went long JNUG at 22.82 yesterday. Stop is now 24.50. Current price 25.77.

    That said, I am on board with the $900 price and will write my all in article somewhere between $850 and $1,000.

    I like the fact you have your own proprietary indicators. I don't give out all mine either but I do give out quite a few.

    Rogro, I think EW should be used with all your other data you follow. I wouldn't look as much into the reasons for gold (Trillions of debt, eventual stock market decline, derivatives disaster, etc.) but look at the dollar and price action and if you do, you'll see more of a correlation there than anywhere else, given enough time for the analysis to develop.

    If everything is clicking together, it is much easier to predict the micro. There is no way I could look at one thing and make a judgement.


    dverenes, Contrarian and I agree on an overall deflationary scenario for the economy, but not to the extent. We both agree that interest rates will fall and that gold will fall. He says gold will possibly go farther than I do. He also says gold will go much higher which I do as well. The Fed is always reactive. I have said at one point this year that the Fed could possibly raise rates to claim "relevance" but it would be followed by more cuts and more likely additional QE. Remember when Greenspan raised rates? Similar situation. The data tells me this would be a disaster. The Fed, like the stock market it seems, only looks at the employment data and thinks everything is hunky-dory. I beg to differ. See U-6 for example. and this note: " Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data."
    May 13, 2015. 01:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Gold Now, Wait Until It's Under $1,000 [View article]
    Michael, you use prose in a way that compliments (enjoy your articles) but at the same time ridicules (finding suckers). Yes, I sell gold for a living, but I do so with I think better advise than most of the gold dealers out there who push most of the nonsense out there. I have only written one article that is related to hyperinflation barter situations because guess what? It happened with Argentina. While I do have many foreign readers, the majority of my readers are from the U.S. and I do see a bottoming in gold and a move higher (and my indicators will dictate this reversal). If one had your attitude they would have missed the entire run up where gold did better than any other asset on earth.

    My advice to you is to be open to what I write and not be as one sided, except to those who use words like "hyperinflation" and "end of world" in their articles or those who advertise on Fox and right wing radio shows that sell the high commissioned coins.

    May 12, 2015. 12:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks Recovering Despite Lackluster Gold Action [View article]
    My clients are mostly U.S. 622. They are not amused with the current downtrend in the price of gold and mining stocks. I also haven't steered them wrong with my micro advice.

    I do think prices will go much higher. But I see below $1,000 first.

    The demand is mostly from India and China btw and is mostly jewelry related.
    May 11, 2015. 07:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment