Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! [View instapost]
curis....
Most people simply want to beat inflation, so they use the CPI as their guide (government's version of it). Others use the S&P 500.
80% of mutual fund managers and hedge fund managers don't beat the index. So if you are consistently beating the index, then you are doing quite well. You have obviously beat inflation.
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! [View instapost]
IT, you first have to define the two before discussing. Then you have to further see what is involved on the supply/demand curve and who is involved. So it's not a black and white scenario.
When I wrote Chapter 4 of my book you are reading, you'll see that's how I started the chapter (Page 52). This is also where Austrians and others disagree, and even Austrians disagree.
I don't consider deflation and inflation prices, as much as I do the money supply. Where I believe many Austrians have it wrong is they don't consider credit in their definitions. I'm not sure why they don't, but as much QE Bernanke has been pumping into the system, why haven't we had inflation? It's because it's still being swallowed up by the contraction process. Yes, some of the liquidity is reaching other areas (stocks and real estate) but this is only temporary. Bernanke has no choice but to continue QE in my opinion.
At some point, we will see inflation. As Japan has shown, it can be further away than most think. But we are not Japan by a long shot.
Gold Is Not Lower Because Of A Higher Dollar [View article]
September 2011 we saw the most recent gold high of just over $1,900. Check the dollar index then and you'll see it correlated with that high, reaching the low 70's. Since that bottom, gold has taken a hit. See my article here: Hey Gold Bugs! The Dollar Still Matters! http://seekingalpha.co...
"Do you really think risk-averse central bankers are going to try and catch the knife," asks Credit Suisse commodity research chief Ric Deverell about gold. "No" is his answer as this crowd only buys when the price is headed higher. Of reports of heavy physical buying, he's unimpressed, noting investment demand (ETFs) is the gorilla in the gold market. The metal's (GLD -1.6%) within a few dollars of taking out the 26-month low hit in April. [View news story]
Not just that WT, but if you manage a hedge fund right now, you're buying this dip or thinking about buying this dip while selling some profitable stocks. The hedge funds selling gold are possibly doing so because of forced liquidation, but we are ever closer to the bottom.
My next article will be bullish with 80% probability of being correct. I am still dollar bullish though.
Gold (GLD -2.1%), (IAU -2.2%) sinks back below $1,400 as the bounce since mid-April is officially over. At work here, suggests RBC Capital, is the strong stock market. To participate, foreign investors sell gold, buy dollars (UUP is up big in May), and call their stockbrokers. Commerzbank notes gold ETF outflows were another 6 tons yesterday, bringing the total since early April to 230 tons. Silver (SLV -3.1%) tags along. [View news story]
haha....ZH is very repetitious in their articles about gold. I'm usually so late to read their gold articles that anything I say gets lost in the hundreds of responses. Feel free to post anything I write though, lol.
Gold (GLD -2.1%), (IAU -2.2%) sinks back below $1,400 as the bounce since mid-April is officially over. At work here, suggests RBC Capital, is the strong stock market. To participate, foreign investors sell gold, buy dollars (UUP is up big in May), and call their stockbrokers. Commerzbank notes gold ETF outflows were another 6 tons yesterday, bringing the total since early April to 230 tons. Silver (SLV -3.1%) tags along. [View news story]
market, plenty supply of ASE's and everything else except I am limited on 90% silver bags with one supplier and the other supplier is completely out of them still. Premiums have come down a bit on silver. Gold premiums are the lowest I have seen in quite some time.
Gold (GLD -2.1%), (IAU -2.2%) sinks back below $1,400 as the bounce since mid-April is officially over. At work here, suggests RBC Capital, is the strong stock market. To participate, foreign investors sell gold, buy dollars (UUP is up big in May), and call their stockbrokers. Commerzbank notes gold ETF outflows were another 6 tons yesterday, bringing the total since early April to 230 tons. Silver (SLV -3.1%) tags along. [View news story]
IT, thanks...
My next article will shed some light on that. Haven't had time to fully analyze range though, but will.
Gold (GLD -2.1%), (IAU -2.2%) sinks back below $1,400 as the bounce since mid-April is officially over. At work here, suggests RBC Capital, is the strong stock market. To participate, foreign investors sell gold, buy dollars (UUP is up big in May), and call their stockbrokers. Commerzbank notes gold ETF outflows were another 6 tons yesterday, bringing the total since early April to 230 tons. Silver (SLV -3.1%) tags along. [View news story]
pparaska, that is what I am expecting. Want to see that to occur.
Either way my next article will be bullish. First real bullish article I will write in about a year and a half.
I still think we break the lows. And really, if it's not a dead cat at $75 lower from when I wrote that article, it's a pretty maimed cat...
Gold (GLD -2.1%), (IAU -2.2%) sinks back below $1,400 as the bounce since mid-April is officially over. At work here, suggests RBC Capital, is the strong stock market. To participate, foreign investors sell gold, buy dollars (UUP is up big in May), and call their stockbrokers. Commerzbank notes gold ETF outflows were another 6 tons yesterday, bringing the total since early April to 230 tons. Silver (SLV -3.1%) tags along. [View news story]
So what you're saying is, it was a dead cat bounce.
The stronger dollar has precious metals resuming their decline in force (or is the decline in precious metals strengthening the dollar), with gold (GLD) off 2.3% and silver (SLV) off 2.2%. Crude oil (USO) pulls back a bit from its recent big rally, -0.9% to $95.53. [View news story]
Right 95, want the best, but have to face reality. We learned a couple times with the experiments of government money and they failed twice. Read up on Jackson a bit.
"What it is" "is" Utopian if you ignore debt. How do you not address debt in all your posts? You think future GDP will somehow, magically, take care of future debt via growth and the taxes on the debt. This is incomprehensible for anyone who is Keynesian, Krugman or otherwise.
Why don't our kids calculators go to $1 trillion?
Why do Congressmen only compute deficit spending the next 10 years rather than taking care of debt?
How long do you think Keynesian policy can pretend this game has a good solution? Did anyone, and I mean anyone, see 2007/2008 coming?
Be positive all you want about the future man, but do simple math. Pretend GDP will grow with no industry to back it and wages that can't compete. Pretend government spending and future debt is all we need to spark the economy. Then look at Japan, Europe and the UK for what's to come.
I want what's best. You and I both want what's best. We just see the future differently based on our own interpretation of the data. That's ok man. I appreciate the conversation. But nothing backs up a good future for our economy unless we cut, cut, cut. Feel the pain, pain, pain. Unless of course you buy some gold and silver as insurance for such cuts and pain.
But seriously, how am I dollar bullish when I write what I write? How can this possibly be if I sell gold for a living? Riddle me that....
The stronger dollar has precious metals resuming their decline in force (or is the decline in precious metals strengthening the dollar), with gold (GLD) off 2.3% and silver (SLV) off 2.2%. Crude oil (USO) pulls back a bit from its recent big rally, -0.9% to $95.53. [View news story]
So what your are saying 95, is if Greece could print their own money, (via Krugman's views) there problems would disappear, right?
Do you really think printing money for eternity is going to be perceived by intelligent population growth as a good thing? You do know money is printed out of thin air right?
The stronger dollar has precious metals resuming their decline in force (or is the decline in precious metals strengthening the dollar), with gold (GLD) off 2.3% and silver (SLV) off 2.2%. Crude oil (USO) pulls back a bit from its recent big rally, -0.9% to $95.53. [View news story]
95, what websites do you read that gives you such hope?
The "dream" talk isn't nonsense, it's what our government wants for each of us, as if real estate was an investment or something.
While I don't know the amount people are taking out of 401k's, or whether it is 100% for necessity, I can say that many are doing so because they want control of their money, and are worried the Fed/IRS will come in and take it/nationalize it. This is a form of survival, is it not? Depending on one's trust of the system. Not everyone in America has your trust and faith in the future, nor your reasoning to invest/spend/believe in their fellow man. Some people could give a hoot about their neighbor.
Yes, some of those people withdrawing from their 401k's are investing in gold and silver. Others are paying bills. I didn't assume anything except what was written; that the number of people withdrawing are increasing in numbers.
Your last sentence about investing in prosperity hasn't hurt anyone who has invested in gold or silver since 1971, except for a few that have bought here of late, something I have been cautioning about going all-in because I have been dollar bullish. But that time is getting close to an end. My next article will shed some light on that.
Glad you are for world peace. But if one has a positive attitude as you do, and invests accordingly, they should also think about a Plan B if things don't go as expected. That would be prudent (aka asset allocation that includes some gold).
From the Treasuries latest economic data just released: GDP down; rising trade balance for goods and services and a decline in industrial production since 2010; savings rate declining since 2010 as investors search for return in stocks and real estate causing bubbles there.
The stock market and real estate market rebound are the result of Fed interference (deja vu anyone?).
Fed's hands are tied. Any talk of ending QE is premature (see Japan). Any talk of unwinding balance sheet is fantasy at this point. Besides, who will buy?
The stronger dollar has precious metals resuming their decline in force (or is the decline in precious metals strengthening the dollar), with gold (GLD) off 2.3% and silver (SLV) off 2.2%. Crude oil (USO) pulls back a bit from its recent big rally, -0.9% to $95.53. [View news story]
95, you seem to have a general point of view we are hoarding, but the savings rate is down based on the latest treasury data. You can find the data in my latest article; Economic Data Show Potential Of Stock Market Bubble http://seekingalpha.co...
Wouldn't you think this depletion of savings is just, for those who have, putting it from one pocket (savings) into the other (investment)? For those that don't have, they are dipping into their 401k's at a tune of 28% more than a year ago. http://bit.ly/10lAjKY (talk about your human biology and survival).
This to me is a sign of the "real" economy, not one that is hoarding, but one that IS surviving. The Fed in fighting this is a non-event (QE), hence no real inflation in "their" numbers, except for a few industries they like (the stock market, banking, and real estate in some areas where the money has flowed).
The real estate issue you might have made some money on, but you sold. Most don't invest that way. Congrats on making money, but many played that game in 2003-2007 and got burned (those that didn't sell). Most don't buy a home to turn it and sell it. The Fed doesn't demand that low income earners do this. They just want them to obtain the "dream" of ownership. Since when is owning a home any longer the American Dream the Fed and our government still thinks it is? (saying this from the perspective of my read on the real estate market and don't really know yours except that you sold, and I have to assume are just waiting for another good opportunity to buy and sell again)....most don't do that as they don't have the expertise to do it.
I think we both want the same thing overall, based on our discussion. We just read the data differently, which I pointed out in my last reply to you.
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! [View instapost]
Most people simply want to beat inflation, so they use the CPI as their guide (government's version of it). Others use the S&P 500.
80% of mutual fund managers and hedge fund managers don't beat the index. So if you are consistently beating the index, then you are doing quite well. You have obviously beat inflation.
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! [View instapost]
When I wrote Chapter 4 of my book you are reading, you'll see that's how I started the chapter (Page 52). This is also where Austrians and others disagree, and even Austrians disagree.
I don't consider deflation and inflation prices, as much as I do the money supply. Where I believe many Austrians have it wrong is they don't consider credit in their definitions. I'm not sure why they don't, but as much QE Bernanke has been pumping into the system, why haven't we had inflation? It's because it's still being swallowed up by the contraction process. Yes, some of the liquidity is reaching other areas (stocks and real estate) but this is only temporary. Bernanke has no choice but to continue QE in my opinion.
At some point, we will see inflation. As Japan has shown, it can be further away than most think. But we are not Japan by a long shot.
Gold Is Not Lower Because Of A Higher Dollar [View article]
Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
Unless of course you don't believe government statistics...
"Do you really think risk-averse central bankers are going to try and catch the knife," asks Credit Suisse commodity research chief Ric Deverell about gold. "No" is his answer as this crowd only buys when the price is headed higher. Of reports of heavy physical buying, he's unimpressed, noting investment demand (ETFs) is the gorilla in the gold market. The metal's (GLD -1.6%) within a few dollars of taking out the 26-month low hit in April. [View news story]
My next article will be bullish with 80% probability of being correct. I am still dollar bullish though.
Gold (GLD -2.1%), (IAU -2.2%) sinks back below $1,400 as the bounce since mid-April is officially over. At work here, suggests RBC Capital, is the strong stock market. To participate, foreign investors sell gold, buy dollars (UUP is up big in May), and call their stockbrokers. Commerzbank notes gold ETF outflows were another 6 tons yesterday, bringing the total since early April to 230 tons. Silver (SLV -3.1%) tags along. [View news story]
Gold (GLD -2.1%), (IAU -2.2%) sinks back below $1,400 as the bounce since mid-April is officially over. At work here, suggests RBC Capital, is the strong stock market. To participate, foreign investors sell gold, buy dollars (UUP is up big in May), and call their stockbrokers. Commerzbank notes gold ETF outflows were another 6 tons yesterday, bringing the total since early April to 230 tons. Silver (SLV -3.1%) tags along. [View news story]
Gold (GLD -2.1%), (IAU -2.2%) sinks back below $1,400 as the bounce since mid-April is officially over. At work here, suggests RBC Capital, is the strong stock market. To participate, foreign investors sell gold, buy dollars (UUP is up big in May), and call their stockbrokers. Commerzbank notes gold ETF outflows were another 6 tons yesterday, bringing the total since early April to 230 tons. Silver (SLV -3.1%) tags along. [View news story]
My next article will shed some light on that. Haven't had time to fully analyze range though, but will.
Glad you are enjoying the book.
Enjoy the family!
Gold (GLD -2.1%), (IAU -2.2%) sinks back below $1,400 as the bounce since mid-April is officially over. At work here, suggests RBC Capital, is the strong stock market. To participate, foreign investors sell gold, buy dollars (UUP is up big in May), and call their stockbrokers. Commerzbank notes gold ETF outflows were another 6 tons yesterday, bringing the total since early April to 230 tons. Silver (SLV -3.1%) tags along. [View news story]
Either way my next article will be bullish. First real bullish article I will write in about a year and a half.
I still think we break the lows. And really, if it's not a dead cat at $75 lower from when I wrote that article, it's a pretty maimed cat...
Gold (GLD -2.1%), (IAU -2.2%) sinks back below $1,400 as the bounce since mid-April is officially over. At work here, suggests RBC Capital, is the strong stock market. To participate, foreign investors sell gold, buy dollars (UUP is up big in May), and call their stockbrokers. Commerzbank notes gold ETF outflows were another 6 tons yesterday, bringing the total since early April to 230 tons. Silver (SLV -3.1%) tags along. [View news story]
Gold And Silver Dead Cat Bounce And More Carnage To Come Or All In?
http://seekingalpha.co...
The stronger dollar has precious metals resuming their decline in force (or is the decline in precious metals strengthening the dollar), with gold (GLD) off 2.3% and silver (SLV) off 2.2%. Crude oil (USO) pulls back a bit from its recent big rally, -0.9% to $95.53. [View news story]
"What it is" "is" Utopian if you ignore debt. How do you not address debt in all your posts? You think future GDP will somehow, magically, take care of future debt via growth and the taxes on the debt. This is incomprehensible for anyone who is Keynesian, Krugman or otherwise.
Why don't our kids calculators go to $1 trillion?
Why do Congressmen only compute deficit spending the next 10 years rather than taking care of debt?
How long do you think Keynesian policy can pretend this game has a good solution? Did anyone, and I mean anyone, see 2007/2008 coming?
Be positive all you want about the future man, but do simple math. Pretend GDP will grow with no industry to back it and wages that can't compete. Pretend government spending and future debt is all we need to spark the economy. Then look at Japan, Europe and the UK for what's to come.
I want what's best. You and I both want what's best. We just see the future differently based on our own interpretation of the data. That's ok man. I appreciate the conversation. But nothing backs up a good future for our economy unless we cut, cut, cut. Feel the pain, pain, pain. Unless of course you buy some gold and silver as insurance for such cuts and pain.
But seriously, how am I dollar bullish when I write what I write? How can this possibly be if I sell gold for a living? Riddle me that....
The stronger dollar has precious metals resuming their decline in force (or is the decline in precious metals strengthening the dollar), with gold (GLD) off 2.3% and silver (SLV) off 2.2%. Crude oil (USO) pulls back a bit from its recent big rally, -0.9% to $95.53. [View news story]
Do you really think printing money for eternity is going to be perceived by intelligent population growth as a good thing? You do know money is printed out of thin air right?
The stronger dollar has precious metals resuming their decline in force (or is the decline in precious metals strengthening the dollar), with gold (GLD) off 2.3% and silver (SLV) off 2.2%. Crude oil (USO) pulls back a bit from its recent big rally, -0.9% to $95.53. [View news story]
The "dream" talk isn't nonsense, it's what our government wants for each of us, as if real estate was an investment or something.
While I don't know the amount people are taking out of 401k's, or whether it is 100% for necessity, I can say that many are doing so because they want control of their money, and are worried the Fed/IRS will come in and take it/nationalize it. This is a form of survival, is it not? Depending on one's trust of the system. Not everyone in America has your trust and faith in the future, nor your reasoning to invest/spend/believe in their fellow man. Some people could give a hoot about their neighbor.
Yes, some of those people withdrawing from their 401k's are investing in gold and silver. Others are paying bills. I didn't assume anything except what was written; that the number of people withdrawing are increasing in numbers.
Your last sentence about investing in prosperity hasn't hurt anyone who has invested in gold or silver since 1971, except for a few that have bought here of late, something I have been cautioning about going all-in because I have been dollar bullish. But that time is getting close to an end. My next article will shed some light on that.
Glad you are for world peace. But if one has a positive attitude as you do, and invests accordingly, they should also think about a Plan B if things don't go as expected. That would be prudent (aka asset allocation that includes some gold).
The Golden Canary In The Coal Mine [View article]
The stock market and real estate market rebound are the result of Fed interference (deja vu anyone?).
Fed's hands are tied. Any talk of ending QE is premature (see Japan). Any talk of unwinding balance sheet is fantasy at this point. Besides, who will buy?
Economic Data Show Potential Of Stock Market Bubble http://seekingalpha.co...
The stronger dollar has precious metals resuming their decline in force (or is the decline in precious metals strengthening the dollar), with gold (GLD) off 2.3% and silver (SLV) off 2.2%. Crude oil (USO) pulls back a bit from its recent big rally, -0.9% to $95.53. [View news story]
Wouldn't you think this depletion of savings is just, for those who have, putting it from one pocket (savings) into the other (investment)? For those that don't have, they are dipping into their 401k's at a tune of 28% more than a year ago. http://bit.ly/10lAjKY (talk about your human biology and survival).
This to me is a sign of the "real" economy, not one that is hoarding, but one that IS surviving. The Fed in fighting this is a non-event (QE), hence no real inflation in "their" numbers, except for a few industries they like (the stock market, banking, and real estate in some areas where the money has flowed).
The real estate issue you might have made some money on, but you sold. Most don't invest that way. Congrats on making money, but many played that game in 2003-2007 and got burned (those that didn't sell). Most don't buy a home to turn it and sell it. The Fed doesn't demand that low income earners do this. They just want them to obtain the "dream" of ownership. Since when is owning a home any longer the American Dream the Fed and our government still thinks it is? (saying this from the perspective of my read on the real estate market and don't really know yours except that you sold, and I have to assume are just waiting for another good opportunity to buy and sell again)....most don't do that as they don't have the expertise to do it.
I think we both want the same thing overall, based on our discussion. We just read the data differently, which I pointed out in my last reply to you.