Seeking Alpha

Doug Eberhardt

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Doug Eberhardt's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Gold settles at lowest price this year, miners hit new 52-week lows [View news story]
    filipo, not going to disagree about the break up. I have been Euro negative for some time.

    Here's what I wrote concerning European banks in 2010 (only kept going by Draghi and now of cousre the ECB rate cut): http://bit.ly/nZeJcm

    I'm due for another in depth analysis and appreciate your discourse. Remember, I have stuck with my deflationary outlook all along.
    Sep 22 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold settles at lowest price this year, miners hit new 52-week lows [View news story]
    filipo, While on the one hand it "appears" that all is well, it is disguised via changes, accounting gimmicks, etc.

    You said; "It is also a fairy tale that those toxic assets still are on the balance sheets of the different European banks."

    Is it a fairy tale that here in the U.S. many people still, 6 years after the financial crisis, live in their non-foreclosed homes without paying anything to the banks? Why haven't the banks foreclosed?

    It's a fairy tale to believe that Frank Dodd has solved anything here that isn't controlled by the bank and the same goes for Europe. Derivatives are still masked via accounting and capitalization gimmicks.

    http://cnb.cx/1C67Zxv

    Sure, throwing a few billion at it will help stall things, but much of the underlying issues are still there. Banks get governments to do for them what they want. Legislation has done nothing as things are delayed constantly and the regulators aren't smart enough to know banks use separate sets of books in some cases.

    Central bankers continually push for more lenient capital treatment in order to try and get things going in their economies.

    I do admit I may be less confident than most about the future of the banks in Europe, but I can also bet that I have researched it more than most which I am releasing in my next book.

    I will say this in agreement. The illusion is that all is well. Just like with the guy I know who has lived rent free in Newport Beach and collects rent from other houses he owns and the banks won't foreclose. How can this be if all is well? lol (haven't completed my European studies but I did write an article predicting the issues with the banks years ago refuting the European bank stress tests. Also, the banks in Europe haven't done that well this year and many countries in Europe I think we agree on have some major issues.
    Sep 22 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly ETF Gainers / Losers [View news story]
    otakar, I think you mean SLV. Are you underwater? If so, talk to your CPA and sell the SLV, locking in a possible tax write-off (not sure Canadian tax code but assuming you can get some write off). And simply buy physical silver with what's left.

    Other than that, the prospectus tells you what you can and can't do with the SLV shares as far as convertibility. You can download it here: http://bit.ly/1C5AStV
    Sep 22 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold settles at lowest price this year, miners hit new 52-week lows [View news story]
    filipo, I am talking about the fact that the European banks have not unwound the derivative problem assets (marked down or dumped on others) with their balance sheets yet among other issues like lower revenue. The recent moves by the ECB are going to help them, sure, but I don't have faith its enough.

    PRO (hope):

    http://bit.ly/1C5zszq

    CON (my take):

    http://bit.ly/1C5zqaF
    Sep 22 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold settles at lowest price this year, miners hit new 52-week lows [View news story]
    David, we had a bounce for a few months but we have been in a deflationary credit contraction since 2011. Pretty much every commodity chart or index shows this. Yes velocity is at a stand still (deflationary) and the government is spending to fight deflation. The Fed is winding down their efforts which I think is too soon and has done better than ECB and BOJ.

    But this could be on the table: http://bloom.bg/1C5klG5

    I've been saying watch Europe for trouble for quite some time. You add the fact in that their banks have to adhere to capitalization requirements come January, which I don't think they are prepared for, and I foresee more trouble ahead for the Euro (dollar bullish).
    Sep 22 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bears On Gold ETFs Are Wrong [View article]
    Thanks again intel!
    Sep 22 03:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD Prices Continue Irrational Behavior; Investors Should Seek More Stable Portfolio Additions [View article]
    DanCS, all good points, but it is a known fact that market makers do this for a living (throw people off the train). It's no secret that some of the banks have increased their trading activity in gold and silver as it's included in the OCC reports. Not manipulation mind you, but business as usual.

    For me, deflation explains a lot; http://bit.ly/golddefl...
    Sep 20 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    So far so good Robert. I think $1,000 would be broken, but can't get on the break down to your levels. My last article was on how deflation is kicking gold and silvers butt. The Fed won't let that last though. They are always 2 steps behind so it will be interesting to decipher what they say versus what they have to eventually do.
    Sep 20 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold settles at lowest price this year, miners hit new 52-week lows [View news story]
    Capt, Kirk, In 2011 I suggested those who owned miners to get out of them. I am close to being at the opposite of that advice at this point in time. I do agree that when we get the final smack down, assuming it comes of course, that it will be just an attempt by market makers to squeeze the last drop of blood from the weak hands and get them to sell. They are good at what they do.

    No one will catch the exact bottom, but dollar cost averaging into gold, silver, and the miners makes sense. I have a mining package I am coming out with soon. It should be available on my site. I have spent about 4 months putting it together. In my humble opinion it has some good trading advice in it.

    While I do think we might break $1,000 an ounce on this move down at some point, I do think it will be as you have described, like a rubber band on the rebound.

    Take care and good luck.

    Doug
    Sep 20 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold settles at lowest price this year, miners hit new 52-week lows [View news story]
    dverenes, yes, well aware of Dent. What he is missing is what the Fed "has" to do; inflate. Bernanke did it and the Bernanke clone Yellen won't hesitate in doing whatever is necessary to get inflation going. Otherwise their whole system fails.

    Dent ignores this external factor.
    Sep 19 05:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly ETF Gainers / Losers [View news story]
    I imagine Larry Edelson call for going all in on some miners in June isn't sitting well with his subscribers (at least before his latest call of "hey...maybe the bottom isn't in yet").
    Sep 19 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold settles at lowest price this year, miners hit new 52-week lows [View news story]
    Deflation: Here is my latest article; Gold and Silver Feeling the Deflation Blues http://bit.ly/golddefl...

    Look at the charts of most every commodity. Look at housing report recently and manufacturing. Look at Europe. Look at the dollar.

    This too shall pass.
    Sep 19 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bears On Gold ETFs Are Wrong [View article]
    Thanks intel, appreciate the comment. Here is my latest article; Gold and Silver Feeling the Deflation Blues http://bit.ly/golddefl...
    Sep 19 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold continues to slump; nears year-to-date low [View news story]
    Hmmm Seeking Alpha editors deleted my post above where all I did was link to an article I wrote on May 7th; Why I See Lower Gold and Silver Prices Over the Next 3 to 4 Months.

    They don't like it when I'm right I guess.
    Sep 18 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD Prices Continue Irrational Behavior; Investors Should Seek More Stable Portfolio Additions [View article]
    Investors who bought the DOW stocks when the DOW was at 8000 or 9000 or even 10000 aren't complaining today.

    In my Current Thoughts section I wrote this analogy yesterday.

    "I have used the analogy several times that if investor A bought Apple stock pre-split at $300 a share and investor B bought Apple stock at $400 a share and today Apple was trading at $700 a share, both investor A and investor B would be happy. Yet investor B paid 25% more for their share of Apple stock.
    This is how it is with gold and silver today. Prices could fall and if we break last years low for gold, then the precious metals could fall even harder. Some may buy today and others closer to the bottom at whatever price that is. But every investor in gold and silver has to have the confidence as I do that prices will rise in the future.

    Remember, gold is still in the 2nd and longest stage and this is the stage where the professionals (market makers) will try and throw you off the precious metals train." http://bit.ly/1wr5LFT
    Sep 18 04:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,777 Comments
4,567 Likes