Doug Eberhardt

Etf investing
Doug Eberhardt
ETF investing
Contributor since: 2009
Company: Buy Gold and Silver Safely
603, the mark-up is explained in detail in my book Buy Gold and Silver Safely. Typically 1-2% for gold bars (kilo's cheapest) and 3% to 3.5% for gold Eagles/Maples ($28 over spot).
For silver, as I said, the percentages are higher and all over the board. 2% for 1000 ounce silver bars (best pricing) and up to 16% for silver Eagles and Maples (worst pricing). Just subtract 1% from my prices and you'll get an idea of the cost I pay to mint's.
Prices will change with demand too. Silver Eagles and Maples were $5 to $6 over spot a couple years ago and back in November jumped higher too. 90% silver bags I used to get at spot but they have jumped up in price too.
We do guarantee lowest cost and again, don't sell numismatic, proof, collectible, coins. Call other gold dealers and see what they push you towards. Here's a list of them (or just watch Fox News); Goldline (Glen Becks' favorite), Lear Capital, Goldworth, or download my free report here: http://bit.ly/XNDdnv
I only sell what I believe you can make the most profit from.
Hi 603, whatever the mints charge us we add on 1%. This will vary from product to product with the highest cost bullion coins being American Eagles, then Canadian Maple Leaf gold and silver coins.
From there the lowest cost way to buy are rounds and 100 ounce bars for silver followed by 10 ounce bars and 1 ounce bars (unless you bought 1000 ounce bars which are the cheapest and good for IRA's but most don't take delivery of that big a bar.
For gold the 10 ounce and 1 ounce bars are the cheapest but once again you can go kilo's for IRA's.
We list our prices here: http://bit.ly/1IbUGfM
To be specific to your question, all mints are in the business to make money so they mark up from spot price a certain percentage for their labor. Gold is cheaper from spot in this regard than silver.
If I wanted to be rich in this business I would do what most other gold dealers do and sell numismatic or rare coins and charge very high percentages. Since I have some integrity and only sell what I believe in, you will see from that link that I only sell the lowest cost to spot metals and no rare/collectible/comme... etc. type coins.
My book Buy Gold and Silver Safely you can find on Amazon.com explains all this. http://amzn.to/1YkX4fB
I will be updating that book later this year.
good trading greg. I had sold DWTI on Thursday but sat out yesterday's volatility in oil although I thought all day we would get a bounce in UWTI that never came, but we never went long either.
Agree with oil lower but the dollar has been weak and we may get a bounce in oil still. I personally think, outside of the dollar issue, this is OPEC meeting dreaming deja vu from the week earlier where we saw oil climb on speculation of the meeting. That's like trading the Fed rate assumptions all last year till December when they finally did it. Talk is cheap and when things don't pan out (the market wakes up to it) there is a trade to jump on.
paully, you somehow confuse my writing a book helping traders become aware of what my research has shown as a reason to make money. Did you miss the part that said I am a capitalist? Is this a sin or something to you? You judge my intentions in promoting my book as if I only should be relegated to one form of income, my trading account. You do realize that I get up at 4:45am PST every day to help OTHERS make money, not just myself, and you somehow think I should be greedy and must make money for myself. I write books to help OTHERS, and sure I make a little from it, but obviously you know nothing about A. what it takes to write a book and B. how much money is made from books.
As far as my "winning" trades, why don't you come and check out my track record instead of judging me here? Then you can tell everyone exactly how I perform. I write my Current Thoughts 5 days a week and it tells readers exactly what I think. I write my nightly report for my subscribers and it tells subscribers exactly what I think. I gave you what my subscribers have said about my calls. Do you think they lie?

The truth of the matter is, following my guidelines, trading rules, and calls, we are never down x points. We keep stops rather quickly, per the rules I have set. And I hardly promote like crazy here on Seeking Alpha. I haven't even written an article since November. Yet you think it's a crime that the VERY FEW times I have made comments on my trades here on this old article that hardly anyone but a few followers read, and I should be greedy and keep all my calls to myself shows maybe your character, but not mine. I have always been about helping others.
In fact, after this next book is finished I am immediately finishing a Christian/Political book I have been working on for 10 years now called "We the Serfs!" It exposes much of what is wrong with America, addressing all the issues that divide us, while at the same time offering solutions for what I see coming, helping individuals and religious organizations become self sufficient and reframing the minds of those who have wealth to make a difference in this world. But maybe I should just be selfish and do everything for me? Is that what you're suggesting?
dah - and don't step into someone else's life with your preconceived notion of who that person is when you really don't know them. Call me whatever you want. Those who know me understand what I'm trying to accomplish in this world. What have you done to help others? And under what name? Or are you a person with no real name and no profile that is just here to try and criticize people?
correction; 5.49 points in JNUG.
Paully, funny how I run a trading service here on Seeking Alpha where anyone can pop in and see how I'm doing. I rank 14 out of 61 subscription services and I haven't even advertised my services yet because I am finishing 2 books. http://bit.ly/1Gfvwi5
The reviews of my service can be found here; http://bit.ly/1NHjwXy
JNUG up 3.59 now and holding over weekend.
We also trade UVXY for 3 points today.
I personally have traded in the room live 50 points in DWTI since last Friday.
Don't know what you man about giving my book away for free. I'm a capitalist.
smart_investor, I run a trading service and we have caught some of the move higher in miners. If you read my Current Thoughts which I write every day you'll see when I turned bullish gold.
You are confusing my call for the physical metal down to $1,000 with my call on miners. The miners have risen a couple times a good amount. And they have fallen again the last two years. Larry Edelson called the bottom for gold and miners in July of 2014 then when gold and the miners fell he changed his mind. I have been consistent so those following my advice haven't been hurt from it.
We haven't yet entered the real meat of the deflationary contraction that is coming. My Current Thoughts update the data as I see it. We ride the short term waves up in the meantime (up 2.22 on the JNUG trade today).
But if you want to critique my November comments without out knowing what else I have said in the meantime, you have that right.
But no, miners have not bottomed.
smart, I subscribe to Avi and many others. I do my own research though, and especially for my soon to be released book, that solidifies my thinking. I have written before about my 8 indicators and during the last two run ups in gold they kept me in check. They are now as well.
What solidified it even more for me was my interview with John Exter's son-in-law Barry Downs who at age 73 also has a background in gold mining. He confirmed everything I am writing about in the book and we both agree that mining stocks will still get hard with the deflationary contraction, more so than gold.
There is not a shortage of gold now. When gold finally does move higher, you will not find an ask price at some point as no one will want to sell. Will be interesting to see how that exactly plays out with supply, but for now, plenty of gold.
Contrarian, when you use the word consensus, is this from your connections on the street or from some of the prognosticators you have known over the years that you know have good track records. I do read a ton and follow many to get my views, but also do my own research into the economic data. I know your philosophy is to take the opposite side of the consensus (contrarian) and I understand this. Just wondering who your consensus group is. When I say alone, I pretty much am talking about anyone that sells gold, lol. My indicators haven't let me down so far. Just have to sit through these upticks and wait for what you and I both agree will be lower lows, but we do differ on the extremes for gold. Thanks.
Almost there dverenes. And yes, it supports the case for deflationary contraction, stronger dollar, weaker gold for short term (and miners) and then blast off.
I may stand alone on this right now. Been here before. Others I know might be calling bottom. I believe they are dead wrong.
Actually jumping right in to finishing my other book We the Serfs! which I have been working on 10 years now too. But the Illusions of Wealth book I think you'll like the data and message. http://bit.ly/1HEADWw
I think dollar is still going to go higher. Fed will be slow to react to anything as usual. Right now we see gold moving up and guess why? Dollar moving down. I see Euro at par with dollar and by default that will drive dollar over 100 and put pressure on gold.
I can stand alone on this thinking. I've been here before. My book will explain the details.
You missed the point of what gold does in the beginning stages of the "real" deflation that's coming jsIRA. Has nothing to do with the fact hold is higher than the 2008 price right now.
Just look at the economic data here and abroad. Why are central banks everywhere implementing QE? Why didn't the Fed raise rates last meeting. Why won't they in March?
greg, like the Beverly Hillbilly's reference. I have said that DWTI could hit 500 now after calling it to 300 when it was trading in the low 100's. You were on the same page then and I imagine we are on the same page now from what I hear.
I think oil can hit the teens before it is all said and done which means I may be conservative in my guestimate on DWTI. Heck, it's already 30.65. What's another 35%? I can't calculate the price DWTI would be if that were the case, but hope to ride it as high as possible and buy on the dips as you did at 229 and my target was 226 for that dip and we went as low as 220 and called it long on Friday for the ride up to 315 so far. Not easy to hold that long though so I give you credit but easier to do when you are sitting on some nice profit.
jsIRA, you do realize I run a gold business, right?
You said; "If we have 2008 market crash, gold price will hold well.
Check gold price chart in 2007 - 2008. It had a huge run up to March 2008 and then seesaw the whole year. It closed 2008 unchanged while market lost 36%."
You missed the part that preceded the run up in price. It fell from the high in March 17th of 2008 at $1,011.25 to $740.75 on Sept. 11th, a loss of 26.74%.
I am well aware of what gold will do next. It just needs to hit my targets of under $1,000 first and the year you bring up 2008 is a good example of why it should.
And it's not "deflation or not." It's deflation. You just can't discount economic data as an either/or. It's real and I track it probably more than anyone else who sells gold which is why I am still cautioning clients on purchasing gold but at the same time recommending a dollar cost average allocation to the precious metals (not the miners just yet although we did catch some of JNUG and NUGT off and on this last trip up in gold).
I'll take the other side of that gabrielb.
The body of evidence points to economic data that dictates deflation is upon us and we are just in the beginning stages (except for commodities).
Since many are not aware of what deflation really is, I am writing a book in support of it and explaining what happens next; Illusions of Wealth. http://bit.ly/1HEADWw I'm very comfortable with my analysis from the last 2 years in preparation for the release of this book and I have some good people on my side who concur including former Fed board member Richard Fisher and John Exter's son-in-law (expert on what Exter did know and would say today). Still have to interview Fisher though as the last part of my book.
I don't ignore price action mind you and we were long JNUG/NUGT today for a nice trade. I'm not against trading and having a few different macro views (gold below 1000 and then much, much higher where you and I would agree). How we get there we simply disagree. That's ok. I'll still profit on the trades.
It does amaze me how you can screw up a company and come out on top and I'll be have zero regrets to the shareholders.
gab, miners will still get smacked down with the deflationary contraction in my opinion. The market action itself was unwarranted on Friday after a week of disappointments with the Fed, durable goods and GDP.
I do take note that we have not fallen below the levels I thought we would yet but I view this present bounce as very weak and with the dollar moving higher because of my continued views on Yen and Euro weakness (which make up most of the dollar), everything seems on course to me.
Good micro observation gabrielb, but I think we see the pullback in gold as the dollar breaks 100 again once it does. Heck, it is struggling with getting past 1122.
Hi Timmies,
At some point I think gold and the dollar will rise together. Oil has its own supply/demand issues same as natural gas but most importantly are not viewed the world over as money historically.
jsIRA, nice of you to come to this article and post a comment with such sound reasoning. I know you're better than that. Why don't you give us your expectations for gold written 9 months ago. I've been cautioning investors on gold for quite some time. Have I saved them money? I mean I do sell the stuff so it's not like I have a hidden agenda.
Gold got down to just under $1,050. I'd say that's a pretty good call as I wrote that original article when gold was north of $1,200. Now we are at $1,117 and you are saying under $1,100 is out of the question. You do realize we are just in the beginning of the deflationary contraction, right?
Look at what treasuries via the 10 year are doing, one of my 8 indicators that I wrote tell us where gold will go next a few years ago when gold was over $1,400. It's under 2%. Even on a day when normally the stock market, which shot up Friday, and TBT would be up together, TLT was up on Friday. The Fed raised rates in December and I said it would be a one and done and they would have egg on their face because the data doesn't add up to a raise or the 3/4 expected this year and what happened this week with the Fed? No raise in rates?
Gold simply broke out of a trend of $1,050 - $1,100 and is $17 over and you're telling me gold won't fall below $1,100. Take a look at the Dollar Index. It shot up to almost 100 again on Friday. It's going higher and will put pressure on gold to get to the levels where I'll write my all in article.
To call this analysis a "joke" shows you haven't been following along with what I write. And in my trading room we have been off an on bullish on gold and the miners but was neutral on Friday. I think we are topping sooner than later.
I call it like I see and if you want to call my in depth analysis a joke, you have all the right to do so. But you are missing the big picture, and you don't know what I think from a micro picture because you don't follow what I write in my trading room. We got 35 points from DWTI on Friday. Here's what other people say about my ability to make good calls (no joke); http://tinyurl.com/z6b...
Peter, I wrote a book that included history on the Fed if you care to read it. http://tinyurl.com/zx5...
You can click on the book using the "Look Inside" option with Amazon.com and see the Table of Contents.
What you try to do is take my calling the Fed members incompetent and twist it into the Federal Reserve System. Not my intent to address the "system" which I do however address in my first book above and my next book Illusions of Wealth. Thank you.
Not any maestro but call it like I see it. I can take the heat and still stick with what I see. So far so good is all and I hope to continue. I do read a lot. :-)
Writing about REIT's in my book filipo. Good dividends there. But check out how they did 2013 on the charts. As long as interest rates in your favor, and I do think we move lower and have favored TLT on buy the dip all last year and into this year, then we can make the REIT game last a bit longer. 2013 will repeat but worse though. In time.
Re: gold I have said "this year." I didn't say that last year. I don't really have to give a time frame for buyers as I simply tell them to cost average in. The goal is to allocate your last purchase to the bottom. But I do have some waiting for my all in article. That is their choice. Only ones who care about time are option traders. In the meantime, we make a killing trading the leveraged ETFs. The reviews are coming in; http://tinyurl.com/z6b...
filipo, nothing has changed. Fed is fighting deflation and they don't admit it but now we see the effects of their decision (raising rates before their time). You don't drink a fine whiskey before it's time and you don't raise rates until the economy is ready.
In my trading room I have said I am gold bullish for a couple days now and same with oil beginning yesterday when we went long UWTI. Sold all oil today and the gold jury is still out as I like the fact the Fed decision tomorrow will show more of Fed incompetence and gold should like that. Then we see dollar begin to rise again and gold to fall. Gold has been in range of $1,050 to $1,100 and we broke out of range yesterday.
You have followed me long enough to know I call it like I see it on the short term. Doesn't affect the more macro call of under $1,000 or the fact we will hit all time highs again. That's not playing both sides and claiming victory. That's playing all sides correctly in my humble opinion.
It's a dollar decline move and a Fed incompetence move. Nothing more. We traded it long. http://tinyurl.com/hem...
airhalli,
Any discussion on inflation/deflation has to start with definitions or you get stuck in a maze of disagreements. I put that definition in my articles and in this article which jason didn't evidently read as I didn't use the word "price" once. I do this to refrain from discussion that goes off track from the points I make like prices of things as there is much more involved than the price alone.
For example, a big one is the prices paid for groceries;
I still maintain the food prices are propped up by greedy food companies taking advantage of the government footing the bill. The costs increased 20% annually from 2007 to 2012. The average monthly benefit is $256 a month times 45.368 million people or $65 billion a year from $28.6 billion in 2005. You give my industry billions more a year why would I lower prices?
Yet look at any grain chart and it's a crash in prices.
Price alone isn't the issue and as I said in my opening comment to jason, "many use a rise in prices as inflation." I did not. My case is made with the entire article which seems to be ignored.
What you say is true though; it is a ponzi scheme. I address it fully in my book. The contraction will affect every asset, including gold and miners. Miners have a way to go south. Gold will rebound faster. I'll write my "all in" article and that's it. :-)
jasonjones, you are right, I am a capitalist. So is Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch and anyone else who sells investment advice or products. What's your point? I said "we can agree to disagree" because I cannot and know I cannot convince you of my point of view. But you want to bring in "can't eat gold" when that wasn't the issue we were even discussing. I decided (free will that you have too) to not converse with you any longer but you claim "it's reality" as if you are some sort of god or all knowing person or something. You have your own agenda and I chose not to get into it with you because it would lead to this exact thing. Move on man. Be right in your own mind and I'll be right in my own mind and help investors make money from what I do. As quickly as you are replying it's like you're stalking me.
Your reality is different than mine. People make money on my reality.
Jason, thought we were talking about deflation? Now you bring into the conversation "you can't eat gold?" Do you eat your paper dollars and coins too?
I've responded to you in past articles and your story/agenda doesn't change. Let's agree to disagree and people can still follow what I say and make money. That's all that matters to me.
http://bit.ly/1NHjwXy
Jason, based on your comment, your definition is similar to many others that look at price as their reasoning as to whether we have deflation or not. Naturally I could point to gasoline, oil, gold, natural gas, silver, platinum, palladium, and grains like wheat, and corn, many "real" things that you need to live.
But prices are kept high or stay higher for several reasons, but most of these reasons are the government is involved;
1. health care costs - government pays the bill for medicare/medicaid and more costs for Obamacare. No incentive for providers to lower rates except in few states that have caps.
2. postal rates - government run
3. student loans - government guarantees the loans giving colleges incentive to keep increasing costs.
4. SNAP benefits (formally food stamps) where millions more are receiving handouts giving grocery stores no incentive to lower prices as demand is constant or increasing with the extra money in people's EBT cards.
But what you are also missing is the economic data. Take a look at manufacturing data, production data, Baltic Dry Index at record lows, etc. etc. Not just here in U.S. but everywhere. There's deflation in the interest rates you earn on your savings (that's real, right?).
The contraction that is still to come is just getting started. What accidentalcapitalist speaks of to very little money velocity is a key ingredient to inflation. You won't see real inflation until money starts flowing again. Right now it's being hoarded and business activity contracting as well as the entire economy.
Hi paturir,
I write a nightly report 5 days a week which gives the trends and if you trade those only you would do well. But I don't understand how you can place trades after hours only. Can you not trade on your cell phone via an app, at lunch or on a break from work? Or perhaps your work doesn't allow, which I understand.
There is a 2 week free trial and you can check it out to see if it fits. We caught most of the DWTI move and switched to UWTI a couple days ago. Many others like EDZ, RUSS and YANG past few weeks as well. Switched course though. That's the beauty of trading; finding the right time to sell and play the other side. Don't really care if market is up or down but just give me a trend. http://bit.ly/1SHY9t1
Hi Wealth,
Went to their site and didn't see any prices.
Simple thing we do is check our competitor prices and undercut them each week. Tell us what you want to pay for bullion prices and we will beat.
We only sell bullion products, lowest cost in the nation. Simple concept.
Doug