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Doug Eberhardt
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Doug Eberhardt is the author of "Buy Gold and Silver Safely" and a broker/dealer selling gold and silver coins and bars at 1% over wholesale cost.
My company:
Buy Gold and Silver Safely
My blog:
Buy Gold and Silver Safely
My book:
Buy Gold and Silver Safely
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  • Current Thoughts 1-27-2015 Midday Report - JNUG And JDST Trades

    When I write my Current Thoughts I mention the words "higher high" in trading the various ETFs. In explaining this pull up a chart of JNUG which you can find here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=JNUG

    Click on the 1 day chart for reference (as shown below).

    The following analysis is based on price action only. No Elliott Wave analysis. No fibonacci, RSI, etc. gobblygook. One can successfully trade these triple leveraged ETFs based on price action and some simple rules.

    (click to enlarge)

    The higher high came twice on JNUG, once at $39 and again at 9:47am EST or again at 10:33am EST at $39.80. Both could have been good short term trades where one could have locked in profit.

    Technically you had one more higher high but it occurred during lunch time which is never a great time to trade.

    If you look at the 3 month chart on JNUG we had 3 higher lows which is bullish. If indeed we are bullish (and gold would have to confirm) then JNUG could go to 45.55. A break of 46 and it's off to the races to possibly 56.

    (click to enlarge)

    On the flip side I wouldn't even touch JDST today till a break of 7.66. See chart here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=jdst&ql=1 A break of 8.07 and it would be a nice trade to 8.50 possibly 9.00. A break over 9.55 and 13.92 might be next stop.

    (click to enlarge)

    Some of these would be swing trades, obviously. But look for the trend and only trade a reversal if gold agrees (and keep in mind yesterday was an enigma and not the norm where we saw gold down and the mining ETFs up nicely).

    What many don't realize is these two ETFs are not opposites of each other and should not be held for too long. JNUG is down 83.79% the last year and JDST is down 74.26%. Why would anyone in their right mind put money into these? The answer is, if you are on the right side of the trade, you can earn 10% in one day. But if you guess wrong, you can lose 10% or more in one day. That's why you keep stops!

    JNUG is up 9.88% today and JDST down 10.14%. UGAZ up 6.28% and UWTI 5.84%, two that I mentioned I like yesterday.

    Dollar was down big earlier today with market. Fear trade was on I think and gold benefited. But the stock market is coming back down less than 200 points at present.

    From this point of time in trading today I would look at the above prices for the right trade based on the trend and with an eye on gold prices as well as the potential for reversals. If a trade goes to a higher high and then reverses below where you got in, a stop should be in place so as to not let the trade turn into big losses. On the flip side, move your stops up on a profitable trade and don't marry these ETFs for too long. TAKE PROFIT! Another trade is just around the corner.

     

    Gold and Silver Stock Mining Package

    We will be coming out with a mining package where we pick what we believe to be the best mining stocks to buy based on my research the last 8 months. We have been patient in releasing this because of the timing in purchasing these mining stocks can be tricky. We were one of the only one's who recommended selling mining stocks in September of 2010 when the HUI was trading at 512.56. Much has transpired in the mining industry since that call with many companies disappearing or being taken over. Today many companies are struggling and if we do get a further pullback in the price of gold and silver, more companies will go bankrupt. Knowing which companies have the best opportunity moving forward will be key to you getting returns that we believe will be in the 100% to 500% range, and possibly much higher for some of the miners. This package will be released in the next few weeks and we will announce it on the site.

    If you are interested in this Gold and Silver Stock Mining Package let us know by clicking this link below and completing the form.

    Gold and Silver Stock Mining Package

    Disclosure: The author is long UWTI.

    Additional disclosure: I trade JDST and JNUG from time to time based on these price targets which adjust daily.

    Jan 27 3:00 PM | Link | 11 Comments
  • Gold And Silver Current Thoughts 1-25-2015

    I have decided to write my Current Thoughts once a week as an Instablog every Sunday and post it here on Seeking Alpha.

    In Thursday's Current Thoughts I said I lean towards JDST and it turned out to be the start of the day up 14.94% as gold took a hit. The daily red arrow for GLD and the mining ETFs was triggered but SLV is still green.

    The Greek vote came in with the anti-austerity Syriza party winning the election but falling short of the percentage needed for an outright majority.

    Tsipras, 40, will lead the first eurozone government to openly oppose bailout conditions imposed by the European Union and International Monetary Fund, seemingly setting Athens on a collision course with Brussels and particularly Berlin. The result had "made the Troika [the EU, IMF and European Central Bank] history," he said.

    In Asia gold has opened up a few dollars and silver up 10 cents.

    Will be an interesting couple days on Wall Street as a big snow storm could keep many traders working from home. I expect to see light volume all the way around with no real U.S. data to trade coming out until Tuesday when we get Durable Goods, Services PMI, New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence. Then on Wednesday we have another Fed meeting and statement. Will this be the time they finally raise interest rates?

    Personally I think the Fed will raise rates here at some point, possibly not this meeting but the next one as long as the stock market is doing well and the 10 year treasury rate is under 2%. It's yielding 1.76% now and has fallen for 4 straight weeks. Doug Short has a great chart that shows how the Fed has kept rates artificially low since the financial crisis ended and the various Fed interventions in their attempts to stimulate the economy. The problem is, if the economy is doing so well, why are they keeping rates so low? Could the answer be that the economy isn't really doing as well as people outside of the cheerleaders at CNBC think it is? I will be analyzing this more closely in my next article I will be putting up on the site this week.

    (click to enlarge)

    I also wrote in Thursday's report " I have lots of questions on being so bullish with some unknowns over the weekend, so I would probably take profit for now and sit the weekend out. This is especially true if we gap up tomorrow." If you sold TNA in the morning, you locked in some profit. TNA closed down a bit on the day where the DOW lost 141 points.

    It will be interesting now to see how the ECB deals with Greece. For now, the Nikkei stock market has opened down and U.S. futures indicate a nice drop for the open. I will need to see how Monday trades before I get too bullish and advise to buy the dip. Too many unknowns right now.

    UGAZ got a daily green after having a nice day on Friday finishing up 8.04%. We may get a continuation of this trend with the blizzard hitting the Northeast but the left half of the nation has had some nice warm weather so I wouldn't marry the position.

    UWTI hit lower lows again as the death of the Saudi King and evidently listened to Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal comments that "oil will never see $100 again." He assured CNBC listeners that Saudi Arabia is not lowering the price on purpose to hurt the fracking industry here in the U.S.

    Gold and Silver Stock Mining Package

    We will be coming out with a mining package where we pick what we believe to be the best mining stocks to buy based on my research the last 8 months. We have been patient in releasing this because of the timing in purchasing these mining stocks can be tricky. We were one of the only one's who recommended selling mining stocks in September of 2010 when the HUI was trading at 512.56. Much has transpired in the mining industry since that call with many companies disappearing or being taken over. Today many companies are struggling and if we do get a further pullback in the price of gold and silver, more companies will go bankrupt. Knowing which companies have the best opportunity moving forward will be key to you getting returns that we believe will be in the 100% to 500% range, and possibly much higher for some of the miners. This package will be released in the next few weeks and we will announce it on the site.

    If you are interested in this Gold and Silver Stock Mining Package let us know by clicking this link below and completing the form.

    Gold and Silver Stock Mining Package

    Disclosure: The author is long UWTI.

    Additional disclosure: Author sells gold and silver coins and bars

    Jan 25 8:55 PM | Link | 4 Comments
  • Is This The Bottom For Gold And Silver? - My Last Article On Seeking Alpha

    AUTHOR's NOTE: I have decided to no longer write for Seeking Alpha because of their lack of professionalism and control of content that goes against what I believe in and have written about in my book, Buy Gold and Silver Safely. They have been forcing authors to include paper stocks, ETF's or Mutual Funds as alternatives to physical precious metals for one's portfolio in every article when my company specializes in the physical delivery of metals to my clients and doesn't even sell paper assets. I have battled with the Seeking Alpha editors for years, well before they even had a Gold and Precious Metals category (which I believe I forced them to do). I gave them one last chance to post this current article you are reading as it was a timely piece based on current market action, and over 8 hours had gone by waiting on their review before I finally had to give up on them publishing it.

    If you like what I have written on Seeking Alpha or elsewhere, please sign up for our newsletter to continue reading my articles and check out my latest article;

    Is This the Bottom for Gold and Silver?

    http://bit.ly/14bkOpZ

    Thank you,

    Doug Eberhardt

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Precious Metals Broker selling gold and silver at 1% over wholesale.

    Jun 27 6:55 AM | Link | 8 Comments
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