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Doug Meeks  

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  • More on STAG Industrial results [View news story]
    Retention issues are important. Additional scale will smooth that out in time plus I still feel that macro economic conditions are positive enough to allow some turnover in the tenant base. Watch the QoQ per share metrics and tune out the noise, some risk here for sure. A tenant can change without the building/warehouse ever going vacant, not saying that is the case here but I'm giving these guys some room to work. If the payout ratio does not get better I'll be looking for a better value somewhere else but again, I'm holding here in about a quarter more I'll add the stops because of the continued coverage weakness. Some GREAT comments here, look at edgardo-edmondo below..... the real estate market is efficient, if STAG can manage they will succeed in time.

    Doug
    Jul 26, 2015. 02:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on STAG Industrial results [View news story]
    EE, great comment, thanks for getting in the discussion.
    Jul 26, 2015. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on STAG Industrial results [View news story]
    liusing,

    All I'm saying is if an investor is building a portfolio of REIT's that the foundation, first and largest positions should be the highest quality holdings. With VTR in the mid/low $60's I would be topping off that whole allocation before adding STAG, same goes for OHI and O. I'm adding stuff all the time but the balance should be tipped toward the highest quality. On the record here HOLDING STAG, not adding.

    Doug
    Jul 25, 2015. 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ventas beats by $0.02, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Dirk, I swear I got $1.74 for the Nov Put, and I was watching the FEB put on VTR at a even higher level, but that one never made it off the planning on to the books. It was a great full yield replacement write, cash secured (the only option I trade).

    Doug
    Jul 25, 2015. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on STAG Industrial results [View news story]
    Iahdesa,

    Yes these deals are good enough to get them where they need to be. I'm optimistic and certainly have voted with many dollars. Trust but verify, I'm watching them, search out articles by Brad Thomas here on SA, or find him on Forbes, he has covered STAG well. It looks to me like the G&A is structured to handle a vastly larger asset base at STAG, I would expect to that cost center flatten while these deals are added and added. However, a cap rate report at 8.4%, again, needs to be brought into the new complete cost structure to assess how accreative (spelling?) it is for shareholders. I love seeing the 8.4%...... but show me the AFFO payout dropping under 90% and I'll feel better. If you are building a REIT portfolio start with some other guys, like VTR and O (and others), then sprinkle these guys on top of a strong durable base.

    Doug
    Jul 24, 2015. 11:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ventas beats by $0.02, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Dirk, I'm in there too, and Long VTR. Great company.
    Jul 24, 2015. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ventas beats and boosts guidance [View news story]
    Long VTR. Best of the best. Solid quarter, still adding at these prices. Growth adds value protecting a REIT like this from competition from increasing bond rates. Growth makes VTR less a bond proxy than many other slow growth REIT's.
    Jul 24, 2015. 10:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on STAG Industrial results [View news story]
    Cap rate is NOI/Capital Value (paid).

    So if these guys are doing deals aggregating 8.4% then for every $100 they spent in acquisitions they are able to earn $8.4 in Net Operating Income. You have to trust the internals reported and you have to trust them to pass the cap rate origination numbers into the higher G&A, but if they are hitting 8.4% it's good. I have worked many a Due Diligence projects for these real estate deals and above 8% is solid, I did about 50 deals in the mid west in 2014 for 6-9%. I can promise they did not aggregate 8.4%. IRR is not the same as Cap Rate, for Cap Rate to matter you have to know the spread between the borrowing cost (debt+equity) AND the cap rate to see if these deals are creating value. IRR has duration or the time factor of future value of cash flow added in, cap rate is static.

    STAG's trajectory needs to improve, and I think it is improving. Soon scale and 8.4% cap rates should work it's way to FFO, but listen....coverage is tight right now for STAG, I'm nervous and need to see improvement in coverage, below 90% is a must. My urge is to move to STOR or Ventas, because of the price action Ventas is looking good, and STOR (more risk) is heathly at a AFFO payout ratio in a much safer range.

    regards,

    Doug
    Jul 24, 2015. 10:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on STAG Industrial results [View news story]
    Still want to see the AFFO payout ratio dip under 90%, under 85% would be better. I am impressed with the 8.4% cap rate grab, nice quarter. Long STAG.
    Jul 23, 2015. 04:36 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AmerisourceBergen beats by $0.05, beats on revenue [View news story]
    These guys are a growth machine. Nice quarter.
    Jul 23, 2015. 09:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Stalwarts Have Been Issuing Tons Of Shares [View article]
    RAS,

    MMM and BDX have done pretty well, but I think even those guys should be looked at closely, this is a good point made here, trust but verify!
    Jul 20, 2015. 03:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Stalwarts Have Been Issuing Tons Of Shares [View article]
    I think it would add relevance to the argument if one looked at earnings per share growth and acquisitions during these time frames. GIS may have issued some shares to buy 51% Yoplait (2011), Yoki (2012), Annies (2014) (800m mostly cash for Annies but still).

    Revenue PER SHARE at GIS is up from $11.46 to $15.29 in the last three years, free cash flow is up from $3.60 to $4.11, against a massive currency headwind. Earnings per share are down this year but dang the market price has been awesome over the last three years up from $39ish to $58ish. I'm not feeling any pain from GIS management decisions at all, in fact I feel like they are my partners. 114 years and counting of dividends, seem to point to rather good long term management.

    Share counts and repurchases are super important, but they do not tell the whole story.

    Good read, I take exception to the over broad conclusion but great information. I appreciate your time and work here.

    Doug
    Jul 20, 2015. 10:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Store Capital: A Differentiated Net Lease REIT With Superior Total Return Potential [View article]
    AA,

    Nice write up. I like STORE, I had no idea the AFFO payout was that healthy. I have been watching them, but I should have looked deeper. Thanks taking time to put your stuff out here. I need a little more growth in the 4-5% yield bunch, nice lead here.

    I hope you are well.

    Doug
    Jul 18, 2015. 04:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Referendum: No - 61.1%. Yes - 38.9% [View news story]
    Andreas,

    If you go to San Miniato in Firenze you will see a prominent grave stone, stark, plain and in a premier position... the caption on the grave simply says, "un Italiano".

    EU Blender is an interesting idea but cultural roots still seem to give identity to the old cultures. How long before a Greek see's him/herself as a member of EU first and a Greek second? Heck in Texas we have trouble with that one and it's been more than 150 years. Greeks are Greeks.
    Jul 5, 2015. 07:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3M Makes Its Largest Acquisition Ever With Leading Protection Gear Producer Capital Safety [View article]
    Long MMM. One of my favorite companies, hard to ever get a bargain, but averaging in carefully. Historically a seller of quality products and solid margins, also employee centric as they can be. Rock solid. 98 years of dividends is pretty nice as well.

    thanks for sharing your work.
    Doug
    Jul 1, 2015. 12:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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