Seeking Alpha

Doug Meeks

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Doug Meeks' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Dividend-Growth-Devoid Income Portfolio [View article]
    Counterpoint,

    I worry constantly about rates, I could make a case for the US heading down the Japanese road with sub 1% on the 10 yr Treasury, but the other side could show up as well, as could currency issues in the place of inflation. Tough to call, in a rate rising world the speed at which the rate changes is fairly important, fast rising rates will cause much rotation out of bonds into the market. Anything serving as a proxy to fixed income (BDC, REIT's, mREIT's utes) could get hammered while the broad growth driven market prospers or at least has support. I still think rate issues are out ahead longer than people think. I watch the average maturity length of the Treasury debt, still rotating to the longer bonds, still have a few years of overhang on the medium stuff.

    http://bit.ly/1kT9L0o

    http://bit.ly/1kT9J8I

    this second link has the profile of maturity dates as long as the Fed wants to increase the length of the debt profile there is good reason to think rates will be tame.

    Doug
    Aug 19 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend-Growth-Devoid Income Portfolio [View article]
    User272, You are doing great. RS is a good guy, don't limit yourself to just his list but use that same thought process. Nothing at all wrong with risk, it's important that you succeed in being properly compensated for additional risk.

    My quick thoughts on RS's list....double down on CVX leave out XOM, get GIS instead of PG, forget PFE and Ford, get a midstream pipeline in their places (like HEP or PAA) and a water utility like WTR or AWR, toss in Southern Comp and mix in VZ. You can count on O and OHI too, split allocation to GE between GE and MMM. I don't think I can sleep very well with out BDX. Whew!
    Aug 19 08:06 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend-Growth-Devoid Income Portfolio [View article]
    user, nice balance. I have found that I watch the high yielders very very closely, much more closely than I watch the others. Is you plan to keep re-investing that 40% of the high yield? Why not just de-risk the account?

    I do the same thing as you but I start with the less risky and add the minimum amount of high yield and I'm pretty selective about the high yield.

    best regards,

    Doug
    Aug 19 05:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend-Growth-Devoid Income Portfolio [View article]
    Adam, I agree with you. A blended portfolio is best to extend yield. The great temptation is to look at the capital and think only of how much income it is possible to earn today. Many many many investor do not have enough capital to earn what they need and to do it safely. High yielding equity is so very tempting to these investors, it's just awesome to get that huge paycheck. It is. But I have learned over the years that high yield is high risk and one of those risk factors is limiting growth. Inflation is real risk, muted these years but still very real.

    I see all these comments from the high yield investors and you said it best above.... it's likely not as safe as they think. I'll just add that it is not different this time.

    Blended works and it's not magic, the higher the yield the lower the growth, and most times lower yield has higher growth (and less volatility). I like to think in terms of 6% blended, that's about as far as I will take clients. It's not that I feel that a higher blended yield would not work I just can't elevate risk to that level and feel comfortable.

    My humble, professional, advice is to target a blended rate no higher than 6% as a maximum APY in retirement and to require that yield to grow faster than reported CPI.

    Some contributors also like to talk about a portfolio payout ratio, using something like 60% of your (high) yield and re-investing the rest. This sounds smart but it's odd in my mind to take on the risk, and often pay taxes when income could be lower (lower yield, more qualified yield) and earnings retained as capital.

    I love your last several articles, very important work and a calm voice. Please keep them coming.

    best regards,

    Doug
    Aug 19 04:34 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: How Dividend Income Grows To Staggering Levels By Reinvesting And Compounding [View article]
    My daughter is 8, she knows what I do for work. The other day she let me know it's time to get her some Hasbro stock and some Disney stock, she wants to invest in the company that makes My Little Pony and the Princess' movies like Frozen. She has saved her birthday money and has enough to get 1 share of DIS or about 2 shares of HAS. I will, of course, wave my fees for her new brokerage account. She also thinks it is cool to get mail and is looking forward to her first quarterly report.

    Teach kids about money. It's been said much better than I ever could....."teach a man to fish".
    Aug 18 08:30 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: How Dividend Income Grows To Staggering Levels By Reinvesting And Compounding [View article]
    TF17, I do too but only the good solid quality stuff. MMM mostly, but I started adding some small positions in GE as well.
    Aug 18 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: How Dividend Income Grows To Staggering Levels By Reinvesting And Compounding [View article]
    Pendragon,

    many people, or even most, realize fairly quickly that they do not have enough capital to safely utilized it for income generation anywhere close to what is needed. This is a very very common quandary, and thus the reach for higher yield becomes more and more appealing.

    Doug
    Aug 17 07:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: How Dividend Income Grows To Staggering Levels By Reinvesting And Compounding [View article]
    SMM,

    That's some serious commissions. I hope that reflects a large amount of activity.
    Aug 17 07:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hold Your Nose And Buy Mattel [View article]
    Hasbro has the Disney agreement for Marvel comics (movies) and Star Wars. Boy Toys has been crappy for HAS but with GoG rocking the box office right now and Star Wars VII on the way and other great ideas from HAS, I don't see MAT being the better of the two at this time. HAS is getting it right in the toy space, they have video presence far above what MAT has. HAS brands are far more marketable outside the United States than most MAT brands....."American Girl" is just not going to rock the international sales, and frankly Barbie is not going to either, at least not as much as the very Asian friendly My Little Pony and Littlest Pet Shop ideas.

    Just because one stock is more expensive than another does not mean it's not the better idea, paying for quality has never made me sorry.
    Aug 12 08:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Main Street Capital Q2 results [View news story]
    I'm very comfortable with MAIN, they have surpassed PSEC as my number one BDC holding.
    Aug 7 07:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consolidated Edison beats by $0.12, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Long Con Ed! I almost forget to look at these guys they are so steady on the Divs. If you will look you will see that the payout ratio has been dropping for years.
    Aug 7 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frothy Market, Impending Correction - What's A Dividend Growth Investor To Do? [View article]
    Love the FRIP. Scottrade is the custodian for my firm. I'm there for the FRIP, and the very competitive fees.
    Aug 7 02:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Frothy Market, Impending Correction - What's A Dividend Growth Investor To Do? [View article]
    I have been looking at WAG and even after the 15% pullback, I agree with Chowder here, I'm uncertain, therefore I will not invest.
    Aug 7 02:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frothy Market, Impending Correction - What's A Dividend Growth Investor To Do? [View article]
    I just told an client today that this is great time to do almost nothing with a mature DG portfolio. We trimmed huge chunks of ETE, and have let go of some positions in INTC. Actually picking up (NYSE:SO) theses days, some other stuff, but selling the core DGI's, no. We are still meeting goals, income is growing, projection are met, promises kept. Yes new cash is building on the sidelines, but I'll be moving in time.

    thanks for taking time to write,

    regards,

    Doug
    Aug 6 09:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Preparing For The Unknowns [View article]
    Paul, very nice observation. The trend away from materialistic things is in place, different types of consumptions have become available and productivity has grown. So has the availability of efficient retail, via web shopping, logistics and such. I had a long talk with my wife about the struggling box retail model, she said they need to make enough money to be able to change, and she thought the Dollar Store/Family Dollar thing was going to be the first to go,,, already suffering from lack of store refresh creating a bad shopping experience. Fascinating trend and great great point.
    Doug
    Aug 6 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,126 Comments
1,562 Likes