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Doug Meeks

 
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  • Team Alpha Portfolios: Buying 2 Dividend Champions On This Dip [View article]
    I feel fairly aggressive adding JNJ at $87. AT&T is a different matter, I have been adding in this area for income, now my needs for purchasing are dependent on client needs, but I am comfortable getting AT&T here in small steps. I lack enough conviction at $34 for T and $87 for JNJ to purchase in full size allotments. I would be a conviction buyer of JNJ at $80, which is still above the 5 year average PE ratio, but some growth premium is added in and JNJ is coming out of a ten year sideways run. Some decent pharma in the pipe for them as well.

    Thanks for sharing and taking time to write, I spend much more time on my higher risk holdings than the companies that I don't worry about, like these two. Long JNJ and T with no desire to sell ( I did trim some JNJ earlier in the year, but we got much of it back).
    Dec 6 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs And Rising Rates, What A Fool Believes [View article]
    zach,

    I talk to people often that sold at big losses in 08-09 and never got back in the market. So very painful to hear those stories, I have always been a DGI guy, and now I do DGI as a professional, these stories are very hurtful and often are not told. Many many people have been sold on growth but not sold on how to exit a market or even that those savings can earn a growing income. I had a guy ask me the other day..." what is a dividend?" Thanks for commenting and getting in the discussion.
    Dec 5 06:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs And Rising Rates, What A Fool Believes [View article]
    Be here,

    It is very possible, and probable for serious investors to not qualify to participate in an IRA, and or for income out side of tax sheltered accounts to far exceed the IRA,ROTH, 401K holdings.
    Dec 5 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is On Fire [View article]
    En Fuego
    Dec 5 11:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is On Fire [View article]
    Long AAPL.
    Dec 5 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs And Rising Rates, What A Fool Believes [View article]
    "famous last words"

    rates rising due to the tapper is different. I agree with you, but my convictions are fluid. The tapper does not have a rotation component but it has created the capacity for more credit in the private/semi-private sector. So perhaps it's rotation component will be money velocity. Inflation? Is that totally contrary?
    Dec 5 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs And Rising Rates, What A Fool Believes [View article]
    RW, Great point. People need to know the details of the REIT business models. Triple Net leases are a great example. Escalation is an important example as well, and a very important part of a long term tenant contract and thus super important to evaluating the meaning of those average lease terms.
    Dec 5 09:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs And Rising Rates, What A Fool Believes [View article]
    That's just it TakeFive, I don't think this is the same as rising rate markets in the past several cycles. Rates are going to rise because of the exit of a bond buyer that does not care about profits in other markets, the corresponding upswing in the anti-rate broad market will not be as correlated because that $85 billion a month (QE) wont move to some other place it will just stop (tapper).

    I think it will have some relation but not as much as the recent rate rise cycles. It will relate because the tapper should be happening at the same time that labor and other LEI's are improving which will be related to a rate rising cycle but QE is bending our historical knowledge.
    Dec 5 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs And Rising Rates, What A Fool Believes [View article]
    Over the next few years I think REIT's that have a stronger growth trajectory will be a good place to be. Earnings growth, capital base growth and healthy dividend growth will be important against the head winds from rates. Also, the more organic rise in rates in a healthy market like the late 90's or the 2007 time frame are a little different than the rate pressure we are looking at the the long bond market.

    A drop in coverage ratio at a bond auction simply because the FED is exiting the auction IS different than a coverage ratio drop because investors are just moving away from the "safety" trade in treasuries and in to other investments. Does that make sense? Regardless I feel like the capital erosion risk in REIT's to be less than in bond funds, with growing income it has been easy to move bond allocations to equity REIT's (Nov 2012).

    Great read Brad, we are adding O at these prices. Thanks for taking time to write, 400 thank you's.

    Doug
    Dec 5 07:36 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: Sustainable High-Yields? Part 1 [View article]
    learning,

    I pick up PSEC below $11.00 around 10.91 or so...... some of it depends on volume and over all market sentiment and direction. I hold small allocations around 3-4% of any given portfolio. Most PSEC is in accounts designed for maximum current income. I consider PSEC to be a great choice for high yield, but remember high yield is high risk, it's just a fact.
    Dec 4 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: Sustainable High-Yields? Part 1 [View article]
    Buzz, Thanks for taking time to write. This was a great read and worth reading a second time. These articles are important. Many investors today are looking for income, and high yield draws many of them to holdings without enough information. PSEC remains our only core high yield holding, and I worry about it just because it has been so great! It's hard to know if VNR should be counted as high yield but the two are hard to compare. Long PSEC, carefully long. Thanks again for your work.
    Dec 4 07:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Team Alpha Portfolio Updates: Selling Several Losing Positions And Performance Reviews [View article]
    Chowder, I had a guy tell me one time during this type of discussion that, "more is more".

    Ha! I have never forgotten it.
    Dec 3 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Way Forward For Mortgage REITs And Interest Rates [View article]
    Nice first article, so much pain in the mREIT sector. I think the bond market is going to be harder to sort out while we enter that time when people are calling for an "end to a 30 year bond bull market". PIMCO released that statement and I read it in the WSJournal. But it is very hard to call a bottom or a top, does PIMCO have it right?. I can not imagine the strain on a leverage structure like an mREIT when it's hard to tell what direction we are going to go with rates. We could still have a surge in the bond market driven by even lower rates. The Yen 10-year note is at 0.62%, are we going down that road? Look at the US 10-yr note rate chart, is that a decisive upward breakout? I don't know.

    Uncertainty is bad for a market, mREITs are part of the rate market. A leveraged part, risk is high. High yield is high risk. I think the market is pricing in the increased risk in the rate market, it does not seem overdone or finished yet. mREIT's remain a speculative investment, for some that may mean opportunity. This is no place for retirement funds or any investors seeking stable income, which sadly was many of the investors over the last year.

    Thanks for taking time to write, nice work. We differ on the importance of some of your points but all are relevant and well made.
    Dec 3 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Team Alpha Portfolio Updates: Selling Several Losing Positions And Performance Reviews [View article]
    Chris, divs are new capital from earnings (or should be) and a loss is a loss. For an income investor it is essential to preserve (hopefully grow) capital and receive income. There is a debate that comes up here on SA about dividends lowering your cost basis in an investment, but that is not true. Dividends are new money ( they can have some ROC). That new money can be spent or re-invested but in both cases it should not be looked at verses your cost basis. It can be looked at for total return, I just prefer that it be looked at as a different capital item. This is a better way, more demanding, and trust me, if you are living off your investment income, it is VERY important to never confuse this issue.

    Doug
    Dec 3 07:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Team Alpha Portfolio Updates: Selling Several Losing Positions And Performance Reviews [View article]
    Tom,

    I think your input on Twitter would be super great. I'm so very hesitant with an investment like that. What do you think will keep them alive long term? Trust me, I need fresh perspective on these social media stocks.

    Doug
    Dec 2 10:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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