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Doug Meeks

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  • mREITs Are The True Dividend Champions, And Safer Than You May Think [View article]
    Gene, that leverage implies some risk, it's well understood, except by the author and others who think that high yield is not high risk.
    Mar 6 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Are The True Dividend Champions, And Safer Than You May Think [View article]
    Big, thanks I understand the rate markets and spreads that NLY and other mREITS are using. I don't think talking about rate direction has much at all to do with the risk in NLY. What about BV? And what about the reduction in leverage they are using and the hedges that are in place and the cost of hedging, mREITs are flat out amazing pieces of finance. Some of these are run by debt market geniuses. They have real earnings, those earnings are at real risk in the market like all earnings. This article is poorly done, you can't say.....look NLY has paid a ton of dividends so they are safe. Why is it safe?

    Is the price safe? Is the dividend safe? How do you value the future stream of income that you would get at these prices? Why did it drop last year, why did they cut the divs, how did they fix that?

    I mean this article has nothing to help here, the facts are not right about JNJ and Realty Income (who has a better CAGR than NLY , 13.3% vs 10.9% not re-invested over the last 15 years).

    I appreciate the clarity you are posting about bonds, but what about leverage (dropping)? spreads (crazy)? hedging (expensive)? and BV (in trouble). I guess I'm spoiled by some of the writers who have looked closely into the mREITS here on SA.

    This article is simply pointing out NLY's history and effectiveness (wow) at churning out profits on these spreads. I see that NLY has done well, I see that they have ensured their survival as well as possible in this environment, but at what cost? How are they safer than we think? Is this where we say a high dividend means they are safe? I disagree.
    Mar 6 07:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Are The True Dividend Champions, And Safer Than You May Think [View article]
    You say that these are safer then we think? How so? This was not addressed in your article.
    Mar 6 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Are The True Dividend Champions, And Safer Than You May Think [View article]
    Chart 3? annual income from Realty Income dropped in 2009? I'm not sure that is the case, I just checked and that is not the case at all. Please check the dividend history for Realty Income and correct that chart. Am I reading this wrong?
    Mar 6 04:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Are The True Dividend Champions, And Safer Than You May Think [View article]
    I don't understand the average monthly income chart. JNJ has increased the dividends for over 50 years with no drop, Realty is on a 19 year streak of growing income, but it looks like your chart is showing a dropping monthly income for both?

    Perhaps that is the income had you bought at each of those time frames?

    Measuring only the single day/price number for investment income is not relevant, you have to hold an investment over time to realize income, the longer you hold JNJ the more you make, same with O. Nothing wrong with NLY or AGNC, it's just a different risk or business structure than JNJ or O. That chart lacks validity here.
    Mar 6 04:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Helmerich & Payne Announces Contract Awards in Argentina [View article]
    These guys are the best. Long HP.
    Mar 5 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Matter: A Review Of Recent Research [View article]
    Pt,

    The need to mobilize accumulated savings for income is a bigger and bigger more relevant concern. Capital allocated to earn a living is different from total return, it does not take anything away from the importance of growth or a total return idea. It's just different in that it is not measured by price alone.
    Doug
    Mar 4 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Matter: A Review Of Recent Research [View article]
    A little bearish, not a lot bearish. I agree fully that rates just can't be predicted. That's about as convicted as I can get about rates, I have heard for years that we are at the bottom in rates. Meanwhile those seeking higher yield have looked at other ideas. Best of luck as well. Thanks again.
    Mar 4 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Matter: A Review Of Recent Research [View article]
    Larry, I'm just a little bearish on rates so this strategy is starts to worry me with longer term bonds. What I do like is that turn in treasuries at the right time. In fact, from a macro economic standpoint (not technical) I think we are seeing the safety premium in US treasuries right now.

    I'm going to spend some time on the SD in my models, it's pretty low. It is an equity solution for sure, the plan was set at a beta of 0.60 but will need to be back tested, and back testing lacks validity in a stock selection process.

    We do this so very differently but I very much enjoy that you share your experience here, I hope people are paying attention.

    D
    Mar 4 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Matter: A Review Of Recent Research [View article]
    Larry, that was great, thanks. I saw after I posted that your time frame was back to 1970, that is also helpful for validity. I do feel that the need for enhanced yield creates another set of priorities for some investors makes the use of 1 year treasuries less relevant. These needs would have one looking more toward a yield based beta solution.

    I'm not a fan of EM right now. But that's a big topic.

    I seriously appreciate your time here.

    Doug
    Mar 4 01:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Matter: A Review Of Recent Research [View article]
    Dividends over 7% are very risky. My opinion, but a firm one.
    Mar 4 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Matter: A Review Of Recent Research [View article]
    I would be super interested in expanding the bond additions discussion/information. Is this research from the last 20 plus years of favorable interest rates for bonds? I feel like the market is different enough these days that modeling the past rate increase cycles might not be the best way to plan.
    Mar 4 10:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Matter: A Review Of Recent Research [View article]
    Richjoy, good comment. In fact, thanks for jumping in as I have a sporting interest (and more serious interest) in this discussion. SDI's have more emotions as a group than professionals. I would hope that more SDI's can channel those emotions into more education and hard work and not just buying and selling. I would think that SA is not representative of the whole of SDI's, I do feel like many here are channeling those feelings to learning and working on this stuff. I get emails from people about bitcoins and solar stocks, and the next hot stock trend, nothing wrong with making money anywhere out there but a feeling about something can not replace time spent on due diligence. I think Mr. Considine and Mr. Swedroe have tons of knowledge and lot's to share. I lack any kind of conviction that I have the only answers, and I choose to learn where and as I can. Yes, I have ended up as a dividend investor.

    Doug
    Mar 4 10:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Matter: A Review Of Recent Research [View article]
    Mr. Considine,

    Thank you for your work, great read. Dividends are great way to stay in the market when you need income, and from this article... dividends are just a great way to stay in the market period. I loved this article.

    best regards and thanks again for taking time to write.

    Doug
    Mar 4 08:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying A Dip In A Dividend Growth Stock [View article]
    Too funny, Aaron. I would be constantly tempted. Of course if I was a MPT guy I would have 10,000 bottles in my Scotch 'portfolio' and when needed I would just drink 4% each year and hope that I was too loaded to notice that I had less Scotch each year.
    Feb 27 09:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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