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Doug Meeks

 
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  • The Rambunctious Relationship Between REITs And Rates [View article]
    BHN, sorry...bad word choice, that means I think new corporate rates will move toward the lower sovereign rates. or that corporate rates will drop.

    I was thinking of the ECB as the center point driving rates lower, and applying even more pressure as a buyer in a QE program. Thanks for bringing that up.

    Doug
    Jul 18 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Dividend Growth Income Is NOT In Danger [View article]
    Mike, have you even thought about all that information on total return, no doubt it's all 100% accurate but how many investors sell at the points that make it work? and in order to use a total return metric it would imply that to maintain 100% accuracy that the investment was 100% sold. As a DGI guy I just look at the checks coming in, yes those are dollars sold out of the market, but not lost.

    like this.....
    Hey look!!! I'm up 15% I beat the S&P!!!..... Did you sell? what do you own now? what about next year?

    It's the shear usability of dividends that drives the idea away from total return. Few people capture market beating total returns even if they have them (for the brief moment in time).

    D
    Jul 18 04:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rambunctious Relationship Between REITs And Rates [View article]
    Adam, I'm seeing that corporate debt could come in on rates under the current conditions, giving some capital lift. The ECB has the rumor mill churning about a eminent QE program to further support a reduction in rates. I'm not looking for anything big but some solid support as the rest of the rate structure moves lower as sovereign rates are influenced by the ECB entering the market, just our Fed did a few years ago. The deposit rate at the ECB is NEGATIVE 0.10% and the tender rate is 0.15%, they are several year behind us in getting to a full accommodative stance. I just worry about the euro weakening, but I'm fairly certain that corporate rates will move in.
    Jul 18 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Dividend Growth Income Is NOT In Danger [View article]
    Love JNJ.....patiently waiting but started to get more interested today. I'm looking at $96 to start buying again. But that depends on the selling pressure at the time it hits $96, but once it gets there I'll be adding it all across the groups, buying will accelerate if it keeps dropping. Looks like some near term resistance at a $100. Would love to see $92, but I'm not taking the chance on that long of a wait, but I will make the most of the opportunity. I have never had a regret getting quality on pull backs. And it's looks like JNJ has crossed under it's long term PE ratio....check the FASTgraph at 15 years.
    Jul 17 08:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rambunctious Relationship Between REITs And Rates [View article]
    AA,

    There are always ups and downs, a good thought process is more consistent and if applied will help navigate. I think you are really helping with that these days. It looks like you gotten richjoy out of retirement, that's important as well.

    Just for fun, I would love to hear your thoughts on the European bond market.

    Doug
    Jul 17 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rambunctious Relationship Between REITs And Rates [View article]
    Adam,

    It's not about the core group holding up well that's a given, CVS and Walgreens and such need a home for sure. The trend toward online shopping is legit and all it has to do is cause some stress around the edges. Barns & Noble and Best Buy are just two that come to mind, things are changing for shopping. Investors should be watching this trend and try to understand it's reach in their portfolios. Diversity here is a good answer, I agree with you 100%. I will go on step further and say exposure to triple net should be done at the highest level of quality and should be a minority part of a REIT group. We are still holding at 11% REIT's and still are holding at that level replacing bond allocations. Although I have started to take baby steps in the European corp bond markets in anticipation of QE from the ECB.

    great work on this one, important work you're putting out here. People are reading these articles and I'm very happy they get to here your thoughts here.

    regards,

    Doug
    Jul 16 09:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Just How Risky Is Dividend Growth Investing? [View article]
    Darren, nicely said. Thanks for jumping in.

    Adam, you rocked this one. Remember that if an individual needs income for expenses (retired or whatever) that person will lose 100% of each dollar of capital spent to pay expenses. This is particularly harmful if enough capital exists to earn sufficient income. Just a thought. Capitalization of expenses is important and the low risk nature of dividend growth blue chip stuff is a good way to capitalize, as the income has enough stability to plan on. Over time not only will the market overcome corrections it can help maintain your earning/purchasing position.

    This is a totally different situation than somebody with a substantial time frame, but it is something that should be considered by those looking at the need for income from their savings. Income is an adjunct to price for this type of individual, income needs can create a case for additional risk, not always.

    Keep these coming.

    Best regards,

    Doug
    Jul 9 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stocks Are Not Expensive And They Beat Cash In The Bank Any Day [View article]
    Approaching 35% cash here. Legacy holdings are in place, new funds are moving very very slowly, time frame just changes my target entry points....the longer I have to meet the goals, the more aggressive I am in buying. Caution is very high, but we are not frozen in place been adding AAPL, STAG and SO, small steps.
    Jul 8 10:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury yields reverse post-employment report surge [View news story]
    Euro central bank has negative fund rate, yes a -0.10%.
    Jul 8 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just How Risky Is High-Yield Dividend Investing? [View article]
    Palladium,

    I watch the yen and I ponder the future of our currency. I will check that post for sure.

    Doug
    Jul 8 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just How Risky Is High-Yield Dividend Investing? [View article]
    Palladium, wow. Thanks for taking time for that comment. I'll add to the discussion only on point 4. Interest rate sensitivity in REIT's is not just a simple part of the operating and lease structure, although there are various impacts that you well discussed. I would add that, as the "risk free" rate of Treasuries rises to better compete with the rates of these REITs the market tends to pay less premium for any equity based yield. This effects higher yielding equities first, as more yield is thought to mean less growth (often does mean less growth) and thus imposes a correlation of the market price with the yield-spread over the risk free rate. Low yielding equities, with the perception (or reality) of growth can hold more premium market price against higher rates, as growth is the greater component of ownership.

    Wow that was a great comment. thanks

    regards,

    Doug
    Jul 8 07:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Warren Buffett Earns $900 In Dividends Per Minute [View article]
    over heard at DC's house.......phone rings...." Honey, it's WB.....something about stevia, can you pick up?"
    Jul 6 08:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just How Risky Is High-Yield Dividend Investing? [View article]
    Mr. Radakovich,

    This is a good conversation about risk, i agree. I also think that each individuals need for capital (either to earn more or to use) at a certain time is an important thing.

    If an investor can live off of 5% yield on the amount of money saved then volatility becomes less a factor, because 5% is pretty doable, right? However, if an investor needs to use the capital at a certain point (a gift, medical, debt retirement, ect...) then timing is very important and volatility is a HUGE part of the risk. So capital use effects the nature and tolerance of risk.

    regards,

    Doug
    Jul 6 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. becomes world's top oil producer, but July 4 gas prices at six-year high [View news story]
    Hell yeah! That's what happens when you raise the price of oil from $12 a barrel to $100. The U.S. is home to the best of the best and not just in the oil business.
    Jul 5 06:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just How Risky Is High-Yield Dividend Investing? [View article]
    Adam, right on. I actually own zero shares of PG across all clients. It was just the example at hand. I build income portfolios all the time, not models, you know that. I talk to people everyday about using the capital they have to generate income that is needed. Many do not have enough capital for 100% of income needs, some do, some even have more than is needed. Tax situations are different, legacies, estates...all kinds of stuff.

    I'm sure I loose clients when I say I will not aggregate above 6% yield. With prices right now even that's a stretch. I FULLY understand the needs of these investors, it's my life. It's not easy to look at a persons life savings and enter the market for them- it gives a prudent man pause to examine anything outside of the market norm. I would go one step further and say that it's even more prudent to be very careful talking about high yield as many readers have need of enhanced yield. This is why I always mention that high yield is high risk, just to balance the discussion. I do love your writing, and you are very fair and balanced. Keep them coming, thanks for the time you put into this work.

    regards,

    Doug
    Jul 5 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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