Doug Poretz

Markets Have Hit a Bottom, But Is It THE Bottom?

Your article is excellent but it is based virtually entirely on looking at the economic/market crisis as solely an economic/market crisis -- I don't think it is. I think this is primarily a cultural problem of widespread irrationality from all quarters (governments, individuals, institutions and the investment/finance community as a whole). As such, cultural change will be one of the results -- among the cultural changes will be a much more conservative consumer, and that will be important because the consumer accounted for somewhere around 70% of our economy at the peak. In addition, it is becoming increasingly clear that the world is on the precipice of major political issues -- take a look around the world (see this narrated, self-running PowerPoint for details: tinyurl.com/daaua9) -- what will happen to markets worldwide if any of the massive protests erupt into something more than just "ordinary" protests? If you missed it (which wouldn't be difficult given the US mainstream media virtually totally ignoring it), 3 million people protested throughout France last week -- and look for major events at the G20 meeting coming up. The threat is very real and growing as the recession spreads. Then there are the issues of a globally interconnected financial market. And there is also the turbulence that comes from the transition from a manufacturing to a knowledge economy. And volatility not only in the price volatility but the access to basic commodities such as oil and food. So, the analysis of whether we are at a bottom that is based on economic and capital markets issues is enlightening but too shallow. Personally, I am not worried about whether the market is at a bottom of not at this moment -- I am much more worried about non-economic news that could blow away the entire cocept of a bottom.