Doug Poretz

Global Markets in Review: Economy, Markets

Great analysis. But I am waiting for another analysis that I believe is more important and more alarming. How about an analysis of how close we are to the conditions that existed in France prior to the French Revolution? How about economic riots in Eastern Europe? How about protest marches in Japan by the "temp" workers who are losing their housing? How about the large and broad disatisfaction of the middle class? How about the increasing antagonistic divisiveness of hardsh language of class vs class? How would such a revolutiuon occur in the Internet age? Shouldn't we be worried about the prospects of a global economic class revolution where a new type of community can be created on line without regard for time, language., geography or other borders, requiring little money and some basic social media skills? I think it's time to start worrying about much more than an economic crisis -- as dire as that may be, it pales in comparison to what MIGHT be

The Antidote to Economic Malaise: A Culture of Collective Mindfulness

I agree with the need for a culture change -- in fact, I believe we are beginning the process of a culture change, whether we like it or not. But I believe the "culture of collective mindfulness" is more like a tactic than an overall strategy. I think cultures are likely to change largely as a result of an evolutionary action rather than an attempt to put fingers in the dike when the flood of revolutionary forces is already upon us.

I'd like to make two general points.

1. Try thinking of the economic situation not as an economic situation that stands by itself as if it was some sort of cyclical event that we'll work through, but as a subsegment of a more significant situation. See it in the context of a cultural event. Certainly there are cyclical factors at work, but i believe the depth and breadth of this situation goes far beyond simple cyclical economic factors. At the same time we have major economic turmoil, we also are going through the transition from a manufacturing to a knowledge economy (which, on its own merits, will give rise to new business models) ... we are now living in a truly global economy (also requiring new models) ... we are seeing major political/demographic changes, including the eroision of the quality of life for the middle class ... there is incredible volatility as to both the availability and the price of essential commodities (food and fuel) ... and we have a population that has been swamped with "buy this" messages on a very forceful and constant basis since the post WW II expansion, which over the years has transformed "The American Dream" (which is really a World Dream) FROM one based on ideological beliefs and high standards for individual responsibility and opportunism TO one based on buy more, buy newer, buy bigger, buy more expensive, buy on credit what you cannot afford. That isn't just an economic situation. And thus, it won't be changed simply by economic changes -- expect to see some major cultural shifts. I think it is too early to predict those shifts, but it isn't too early to become concerned -- because these shifts are going to occur in a world where individuals can communicate (and coalesce into communities) online 24/7/365, unrestrained by time, geography and (moften) language. How would the French Revolution be conducted in the age of the Internet? You might want to start considering that question, and see if you find some answers emerging in 2009.

2. New Models -- I have some experience here because i have co-founded and helped build a communications firm (as in PR/advertising/interac... al) that has a radical new model, starting with the way we bill: we do not keep time sheets and we do not bill by the hour -- that is a basic difference that sets us apart (our growth and margins also sets us apart). Anyhow, I've written at my blog on the specific issues of extablishing a new model (tinyurl.com/8dvk8g). The suggestion that you should have a mistake-focused culture when dealing with a new model isn't "advice" -- it is an a priori truth. That is because new models have new mistakes. And unlike old mistakes that have become recognizable and defineable over the years, along with the remedy that more or less works, NEW mistakes are not recognizeable and there vare no precedents for what works as solutions. You only see them after they have bit you. That's when you say: "what happened?" Then, it isn't simply an issue of identifying it as a mistake, but you have to define it accurately (and that usually doesn't happen on Try One), and after you define it, you have to develop a remedy (and that usually doesn't happen on Try One either). So, the cutlure of "collective mindfulness" is a great phrase and a very difficult and time-consuming reality, often setting off (by necessity) a whole bunch of new mistakes in its wake. Another thing I have learned is that as you encounter new mistakes, you have to develop new solutions consistent with the core fundamentals of the new model (that is, you cannot use old remedies for an old model to solve new problems in a new model) -- as you do that, your new solutions make your enterprise more and more unique -- so you are going to run into even more mistakes that you won't know are mistakes (again) until AFTER they have hit you. This gives rise to a cultural phenomenon that isn't very nice -- you are correct in that you have to have a culture where everyone looks for mistakes, and that can be a good thing, but it also means that people stay focused on "what's wrong" and that becomes a problem if at the same time you fail to revel in your model, despite everything that is (and will be) wrong about it.

I applaud the effort to point the finger of blame at something bigger than "lax regulation" or "greed of Wall Street," etc. -- It is much bigger yet. It is, in my opinion, cultural -- but still, much bigger than a culture that lacks collective mindfulness. I think this is going to be a much bigger "correction" (or whatever it is called) than anyone currently envisions. And that concerns me. I think, all too soon, if I am correct, that phenomenon will concern us all.