Doug Poretz's  Instablog

As readers of my blog DeathOfTime.com may know, I became extremely frustrated over the past few years as I met with experts in new and social media.  The communications firm I co-founded has enjoyed substantial success since we were founded in August 2000, and that, combined with 40 years in the communications business, has led to my ability to meet with lots of people who are well-known and considered experts in new and social media. 

A long time ago, I came to the conclusion that if someone trying to explain something to me couldn’t do it clearly in a relatively reasonable period of time then the problem wasn’t mine – it was theirs because if they couldn't explain it to me, then they didn’t know what they were talking about.  That thought continued to come to mind as I met with these experts.  They could explain what they were doing and how they used their favorite tool or two.  They couldn’t explain how it all fit into the context of achieving specific goals by communicating well-crafted messages and then using whatever distribution channels could get those messages most effectively and efficiently to a specific audience.  That’s what I was concerned about.

Although my own firm has been scoring major recognition (and new business assignments) for the way we have been using social and new media, I was personally not satisfied that I clearly understood what was happening from a 100,000 foot level.  I decided that rather than depending on the perspectives and advice of others, I wanted to see for myself how these tools were being used, and how they could be used, and how they could influence communications in the future.  So, I (with the full support of my colleagues) decided to commit virtually all my time starting January 1, 2009, to immersing myself in enough of what was happening to build the understanding I wanted.  At my blog, I have been writing about my observations since then.

Today’s news includes statistics that only emphasize the phenomenon I’ve written about before:  look at quantitative trends and you’ll be a pessimist but if you look at qualitative trends you’ll be an optimist.  As you read the following, consider these questions:  How long can statistics such as retail sales keep going down while confidence in the prospects of a recovery keeps going up?  At some point, if the quantitative statistics don’t flatten out and start moving north, wouldn’t confidence start heading south?  Alternatively, if confidence keeps going up, will that be enough to pull the economy northward with it?  I think the answer has to do with what is giving rise to the confidence, and that is Barack Obama.

First, today’s quantitative statistics: 

§         Retail Sales:  Seeking Alpha summarized the news as follows:  “Retail sales fell 1.1% in March vs. +0.3% consensus. Y/Y sales dropped 10.7%.  February revised to +0.3% from -0.1%. Total sales for Jan.-March declined 8.8% from a year ago.”

I’m writing this article while watching the President give his “major speech” at Georgetown University on what is needed to do to create a new foundation for the economy.  He has rearticulated how busy he and his administration have been and a number of core beliefs they are bringing to their efforts.  He has suggested five new “pillars” to the U.S. economy:

1.     New rules for Wall Street designed to “drive innovation” and discourage “reckless risk taking”

2.     New investments in education “to make our workforce more skilled and competitive”

People who follow me in Seeking Alpha, Twitter, my own blog or elsewhere know that I am very concerned about political stability throughout the world.  If you are already on twitter, follow this guy -- if not, get on twitter and follow this guy -- real time 140 word missives from the front line of a political uprising:  Moscovici