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Doug Short

 
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  • World Markets Weekend Review: Deeper In The Red [View article]
    The 4-week table is a carry-over from last week. Here's a link to the correct table: http://bit.ly/rrdldq

    I've asked the editors to make the correction.
    Nov 20, 2011. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation: A Five-Month X-Ray View [View article]
    Yes I think the CPI is reasonably accurate. See the comps with MIT's Billion Prices project: http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/

    However, as I've pointed out elsewhere, individual households can have very different exposures to inflation. More here:
    http://bit.ly/tFrjJa
    Nov 17, 2011. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Intervention And The Market: A New Update [View article]
    You might consider keeping an eye on these for the yield-to-interest correlation:

    CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year T-Note
    http://yhoo.it/sbkK1t=^TNX <= copy the link and paste

    30 Year Treasury Yield
    http://yhoo.it/sbkK1t=^TYX <= copy the link and paste

    I follow mortgage rates here:
    http://bit.ly/uGibr3 (weekly)
    http://bit.ly/tieEP4 (daily)
    Nov 8, 2011. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Intervention And The Market: A New Update [View article]
    It's an effort to drive yields lower as a means to lower interest rates in general (e.g., apparently the Fed doesn't think the current 30-year fixed rate mortgage of at 4% is cheap enough).

    Here is a verbatim quotation from the Fed's website on operation twist:

    "By reducing the supply of longer-term Treasury securities in the market, this action should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, including rates on financial assets that investors consider to be close substitutes for longer-term Treasury securities. The reduction in longer-term interest rates, in turn, will contribute to a broad easing in financial market conditions that will provide additional stimulus to support the economic recovery."
    Nov 7, 2011. 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Q Ratio And Market Valuation [View article]
    You've nicely summarized the opposing views. As someone who has been following the market for several decades, I'm skeptical that intangible values have increased significantly over time. Ford had intangible assets in the 1930s. So did IBM -- both with us today -- as did RCA, which has long since lost its distinct market identity.

    Perhaps "intangible" book value has some merit, however slight. On the other hand, perhaps "intangible" book value is in fact "not tangible" in the world of valuation.
    Nov 2, 2011. 08:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecasting the Market: A Thought Experiment Revisited [View article]
    Nicely put. That was the implied point of the guest contribution by Chris Turner.
    Nov 2, 2011. 08:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Q Ratio And Market Valuation [View article]
    See the footnote in the original article, which SA didn't include:
    http://bit.ly/rR8Gdc
    Nov 2, 2011. 03:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Flat Friday Caps A Fine Week On The S&P [View article]
    Skookum, a number of websites syndicate my charts. Some request the MAs, others expressly request that I not include MAs. So I do it both ways.
    Oct 29, 2011. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP Q3 Advance Estimate: 2.5 Percent [View article]
    WestCharlie, Today's 2.5% was the real GDP (inflation-adjusted with the GDP deflator). Nominal GDP (without the deflator) was 5% (5.04% to two decimal places).
    Oct 27, 2011. 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economists' GDP Forecasts: 2.1 In Q3 And 2.0 In Q4 [View article]
    Hypnos7, actually that's a good question. The headline GDP number from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is for real (inflation-adjusted) GDP. In fact, the BEA calculates its own deflator to make the adjustment.

    The economists surveyed by the WSJ understand that their forecasts are judged on how close they are to the real GDP numbers of the BEA. So, yes, they are making real GDP forecasts.
    Oct 24, 2011. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tuesday 2% [View article]
    I've alerted the SA editorial team that they have posted charts from two weeks ago with this commentary. For the correct charts, see the original on my Advisor Perspectives website:
    http://bit.ly/nJLfB3
    Oct 19, 2011. 07:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500's Standstill Tuesday [View article]
    Seeking Alpha has erroneously posted a old chart for this commentary. The correct chart, updated daily, is available on my website: http://bit.ly/o5IvXR
    Oct 11, 2011. 10:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3-Day Rally Ends For S&P 500 [View article]
    Yes, here's a longer timeline, courtesy of Stockcharts.com:
    http://bit.ly/nNUpHl
    Oct 8, 2011. 01:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3-Day Rally Ends For S&P 500 [View article]
    Seeking Alpha posted old charts with this article. Here is the article on my website with the latest charts:
    http://bit.ly/nJLfB3

    Note: Unless traveling, I overwrite these charts virtually every market day with the latest data.
    Oct 8, 2011. 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Unemployment Claims: Good News, Down 37K to 391K [View article]
    Which is one of the reasons why I included a 52-week moving average of the NSA data.
    Sep 29, 2011. 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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