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Doug Short

 
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  • Household Incomes By Age Bracket: A Disappointing 21st Century So Far [View article]
    Hi Stilldazed,
    Note that the statistics are for households, not individuals. The cohort categories are based on the age bracket of the head of household, but the income would be the total for all earners in the household. So combine your salaries for purposes of comparison.

    Also, note that the data is inflation-adjusted to 2010 dollar values, so your $52K from 10 years ago would be adjusted upward to about 65K.
    Sep 23, 2011. 11:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 21st Century Has Not Been Kind To Equity Investors [View article]
    Here's the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested over the same time frame:
    advisorperspectives.co...
    The dividend difference is less significant than most people realize.
    Sep 12, 2011. 07:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lost Decade For The S&P 500 [View article]
    In response your your remark: "I think it would be more prudent to measure from the long-term avg PE ratio and advise people to avoid the market when it shows signs of 'irrational exuberance'."

    See, for example, this:
    advisorperspectives.co...
    Sep 11, 2011. 07:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recession? No. We're In The Second Great Contraction [View article]
    bigazul -- The quarterly GDP data goes through multiple monthly adjustments by the BEA, and annually (e.g., this past July) the BEA makes further historical adjustments. The employment data series (PAYEMS) is seasonally adjusted -- source the BLS. /Doug
    Sep 2, 2011. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasoline Prices And Sales: What They Tell Us About The Economy [View article]
    SMaturin -- I feature an analysis of the Ceridian Pulse of Commerce Index every month the day it's published:

    advisorperspectives.co...
    Aug 23, 2011. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Snapshot: The Thursday Thrashing [View article]
    Mike, Good question. Here's a sneak peak at what I've been working on this afternoon, which sheds some light on the topic:

    www.advisorperspective...

    What you see here is a much longer perspective than my recent S&P snapshots. And I've included not only the 4% plus declines but also the intraday volatility. The 4% number was a completely impromptu pick, not the result of data mining -- just a round number that resonates. I could fiddle with 5% or 6% or whatever, but the implication, I think, would be much the same: volatility of this degree is by no means exclusive to market bottoms. Over the long haul it appears to have a higher correlation with secular bear markets than secular bulls. The crash of 1987 is a notable exception. /Doug
    Aug 19, 2011. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • World Markets Weekend Review: Bear Cubs Abound [View article]
    The table at the top of the article is the one from last week. Here is the correct table for the week ending August 12th:
    advisorperspectives.co...

    I've alerted the editorial team.
    Aug 14, 2011. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasuries Catch Fire and Yields Implode [View article]
    Well, see the implications here: advisorperspectives.co...
    Aug 5, 2011. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vehicle Miles Driven and the Ongoing Economic Contraction [View article]
    Actually, if you adjust for population growth, gasoline demand has indeed declined, despite fuel efficiency: advisorperspectives.co...
    For this series, I used the total population rather than the16-and-over population i used in the miles-driven series. The reason is that a certain amount of additional mileage is the result of child-rearing needs -- trips to daycare, school, and many other activities requiring transportation that the child-rearing years entail.
    Jul 26, 2011. 11:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taxes, Entitlements and the Federal Debt Crisis [View article]
    LA_CPA -- see the last chart above. Outlays have exceeded revenues since 2002, six years before the unemployment increase of the Great Recession.
    Jul 10, 2011. 12:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Total Return Roller Coaster [View article]
    Thanks for the suggestion. I update this article every 2-3 months. In previous updates of this article I got the same comment from another reader. So the next update I aligned as you suggested, and then I got multiple emails complaining that the should be lined up as in this update. So this is the version I've been doing the last half-dozen or so updates. I think the sense of the correlation is obvious with either alignment.
    Jul 7, 2011. 12:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Valuation Indicators Continue to Signal Caution [View article]
    bbro -- I follow the Ivy Portfolio here:

    Monthly Moving Averages: May Update
    dshort.com/articles/mo...

    Measuring the Performance of the Ivy Portfolio
    dshort.com/articles/20...

    I don't include it with the valuation indicators because the Ivy system is a momentum, trend-following strategy that doesn't take valuation into consideration.
    Jun 12, 2011. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYSE Investor Credit and the Market: Another Caution Signal [View article]
    granger -- the NYSE releases the margin data monthly here: tinyurl.com/5unfp7t

    I've yet to find a calendar for the release dates, so I simply check periodically. I'll be updating the chart in this commentary on a monthly basis going forward on my dshort.com website.
    Jun 9, 2011. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yields Plunge as Treasury Rally Accelerates [View article]
    Thanks, yk -- that's an interesting point: "the PIMCO effect". I like it.
    Jun 2, 2011. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: More Upside Surprise [View article]
    Freddy -- Thanks, it's my pleasure (or as my wife would say, my addiction to visualizing data in Excel). /Doug
    May 27, 2011. 02:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
157 Comments
224 Likes