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Doug Short

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  • The 'Real' Mega-Bears [View article]
    For a comparison to 1973-74, you might find this of interest:
    dshort.com/articles/20...
    May 22 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Mega-Bears [View article]
    carlson73 -- Thanks for calling my attention to the label error. I've corrected on my website: dshort.com/charts/mega...
    May 17 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 Loses 1.10% and Slips Below the 50-Day Moving Average [View article]
    Twad -- you might find this post of interest: Real (inflation-adjusted) versus nominal total returns for the S&P 500 since the market peak in 2000:

    dshort.com/articles/20...
    Apr 19 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation Remains Under Control [View article]
    The title was added by SeekingAlpha. Here's the original on my website: dshort.com/inflation/i...
    Apr 17 02:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Measures of Inflation With a Footnote on Gasoline [View article]
    "... gas prices for most people are a minor part of their expenditures."

    That's an erroneous assumption. Consider the suburban household with two wage earners with separate commutes, and then look at this chart of the components of the CPI since 2000:
    dshort.com/inflation/C...

    Next, have a look at a quintile breakdown of household disposable (after-tax) income:
    dshort.com/charts/hous...

    The U.S. average price of a gallon of regular has risen 74 cents in 2011. That's about a 45% increase since the end of 2010. For many households, a higher gas price reduces discretionary spending, and for some households, it even means cutting back on grocery expenses.

    For households in the top quintile of income, higher gas prices are irrelevant. For the 2nd and 3rd, a nuisance. But for the 4th and 5th quintiles, the 45% increase in gas prices since the end of last year can definitely impact the quality of life.
    Apr 17 08:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Holding Steady [View article]
    Here is the latest update, posted today:
    dshort.com/articles/EC...
    Apr 8 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Stock Market Cheap? [View article]
    I feature the use trend-following techniques during periods if cyclical P/E dysfunction:

    dshort.com/articles/mo...
    dshort.com/articles/20...
    Apr 2 08:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disposable Income per Capita: Spending More With Fewer Real Dollars [View article]
    Good question, thanks for asking. The BEA defines it as "total personal income minus personal current taxes." www.bea.gov/regional/d...

    The "real" series I charted is inflation adjusted using the BEA's PCE index.
    Mar 29 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Measuring the Performance of the Ivy Portfolio [View article]
    Hi System X -- thanks for pointing this out. Here's a link to the article with the 2007 start date for the graphic:
    dshort.com/articles/20...

    If you click on the graphic in that version, you'll get a larger version with a complete record of all the trades:
    dshort.com/charts/inde...
    Mar 3 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Personal Consumption Expenditures Index for January [View article]
    See my comments on Shadowstats alternate CPI:
    dshort.com/inflation/i...
    Mar 1 12:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Rise Again [View article]
    James -- You get a dramatically different perspective on the health of retail sales if you adjust for inflation and population growth. See the third chart in this item: dshort.com/articles/re...
    Feb 15 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends: A Macro Look at Yields, Past and Future [View article]
    Good analysis! Here's a more recent version of the first chart:
    dshort.com/charts/SP-C...
    Feb 14 12:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Stock Market Cheap? [View article]
    Whew! I agree about it being long-winded. The Seeking Alpha team accidentally doubled the content but left out the earning table referenced at the beginning. Here's a link to the correct article:
    dshort.com/articles/SP...
    Jan 3 07:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • November: 13th Month of 'Mild' Inflation [View article]
    Here are a couple of links to help you think about the various rates of inflation within the major components of CPI:
    dshort.com/inflation/C...
    dshort.com/inflation/i...
    Dec 16 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unemployment Claims Down 3,000 From Previous Week [View article]
    bbro -- Excellent suggestion! Here it is:
    dshort.com/charts/week...

    I'll now include this chart as a standard feature in my monthly update:
    dshort.com/articles/20...
    Dec 16 12:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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