2 Measures of Inflation With a Footnote on Gasoline [View article]
"... gas prices for most people are a minor part of their expenditures."
That's an erroneous assumption. Consider the suburban household with two wage earners with separate commutes, and then look at this chart of the components of the CPI since 2000: dshort.com/inflation/C...
Next, have a look at a quintile breakdown of household disposable (after-tax) income: dshort.com/charts/hous...
The U.S. average price of a gallon of regular has risen 74 cents in 2011. That's about a 45% increase since the end of 2010. For many households, a higher gas price reduces discretionary spending, and for some households, it even means cutting back on grocery expenses.
For households in the top quintile of income, higher gas prices are irrelevant. For the 2nd and 3rd, a nuisance. But for the 4th and 5th quintiles, the 45% increase in gas prices since the end of last year can definitely impact the quality of life.
James -- You get a dramatically different perspective on the health of retail sales if you adjust for inflation and population growth. See the third chart in this item: dshort.com/articles/re...
Whew! I agree about it being long-winded. The Seeking Alpha team accidentally doubled the content but left out the earning table referenced at the beginning. Here's a link to the correct article: dshort.com/articles/SP...
The 'Real' Mega-Bears [View article]
dshort.com/articles/20...
The Real Mega-Bears [View article]
The S&P 500 Loses 1.10% and Slips Below the 50-Day Moving Average [View article]
dshort.com/articles/20...
Inflation Remains Under Control [View article]
2 Measures of Inflation With a Footnote on Gasoline [View article]
That's an erroneous assumption. Consider the suburban household with two wage earners with separate commutes, and then look at this chart of the components of the CPI since 2000:
dshort.com/inflation/C...
Next, have a look at a quintile breakdown of household disposable (after-tax) income:
dshort.com/charts/hous...
The U.S. average price of a gallon of regular has risen 74 cents in 2011. That's about a 45% increase since the end of 2010. For many households, a higher gas price reduces discretionary spending, and for some households, it even means cutting back on grocery expenses.
For households in the top quintile of income, higher gas prices are irrelevant. For the 2nd and 3rd, a nuisance. But for the 4th and 5th quintiles, the 45% increase in gas prices since the end of last year can definitely impact the quality of life.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Holding Steady [View article]
dshort.com/articles/EC...
Is the Stock Market Cheap? [View article]
dshort.com/articles/mo...
dshort.com/articles/20...
Disposable Income per Capita: Spending More With Fewer Real Dollars [View article]
The "real" series I charted is inflation adjusted using the BEA's PCE index.
Measuring the Performance of the Ivy Portfolio [View article]
dshort.com/articles/20...
If you click on the graphic in that version, you'll get a larger version with a complete record of all the trades:
dshort.com/charts/inde...
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index for January [View article]
dshort.com/inflation/i...
Retail Sales Rise Again [View article]
Dividends: A Macro Look at Yields, Past and Future [View article]
dshort.com/charts/SP-C...
Is the Stock Market Cheap? [View article]
dshort.com/articles/SP...
November: 13th Month of 'Mild' Inflation [View article]
dshort.com/inflation/C...
dshort.com/inflation/i...
Unemployment Claims Down 3,000 From Previous Week [View article]
dshort.com/charts/week...
I'll now include this chart as a standard feature in my monthly update:
dshort.com/articles/20...