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Doug Short

 
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  • The Fed's QE2 Intervention: A Disaster in the Works? [View article]
    John -- Well said! I'm also of the Swedish mindset. /Doug
    Dec 9 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Q3 2010 GDP Revision: Fractionally Above Consensus [View article]
    Article is now corrected.
    Nov 23 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q3 2010 GDP Revision: Fractionally Above Consensus [View article]
    Oops! The charts are correct, but the SA team picked up the title and text from last month's GDP update. The correct text is here:

    dshort.com/articles/20...

    I'm requesting the SA team to replace with the correct text.

    Cheers,
    Doug
    Nov 23 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Measures of Our Disinflationary Plunge [View article]
    WACG -- I perfectly well understand your opinion, which is the generally shared view. However, like it or not, the Fed monitors the core PCE price index in making their policy decisions, not the headline number.

    Incidentally, they prefer the PCE over the CPI because it is more closely aligned to the cost of living than the CPI (which measures a fixed basket of goods & services).
    Nov 18 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shape of Market Bubbles, Including Gold [View article]
    Thanks ... Very insightful!
    Oct 21 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Retail Sales: The Stunning Impact of the Financial Crisis [View article]
    CMI Growth is too new to fully comprehend. But two points to consider: 1) CMI metrics are based exclusively on discretionary spending while census bureau sales are a comprehensive sampling. 2) CMI stats are real-time. Census Bureau sales are compiled, analyzed, seasonally adjusted, etc.

    CMI Growth is very intriguing. Let's see what the first revision GDP looks like (at the end of November, after the elections).
    Oct 19 09:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Measuring the Impact of Dividends and Inflation: Comparing the 2000 and 1968 Bear Markets [View article]
    cyclingscholar -- Here's a version that expands to a total return comparison: dshort.com/articles/20...
    Oct 19 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Metrics Institute: Consumer Demand Still Contracting [View article]
    dpilling -- The Consumer Metrics Institute FAQs explains this phenomenon in answer to the question "What is the 'Weighted Composite Index'?"
    www.consumerindexes.co...

    See especially the last two paragraphs in this section.

    Hope that helps clarify!
    Sep 29 11:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Metrics Institute: Consumer Demand Still Contracting [View article]
    Hungry -- Yes, it could be. Here's a closeup of the past year: dshort.com/charts/CMI/...

    The underlying Weighted Composite Index has had a median value of 96.98 over the past 12 days. The latest daily value (Sept. 26) was 96.76. So there's some sideways churn of late.

    Indeed, this morning's Consumer Confidence Index doesn't bode well for a continued recovery in the CMI. This will be interesting to watch.
    Sep 28 12:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Current Treasury Yield Snapshot [View article]
    Michael -- I don't have snapshots of shorter timeframes. However, for a really big picture, here's a link to an article with yield/equities overlays going back to the 1960s: dshort.com/articles/20...
    Sep 24 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Q Ratio Indicates a Significantly Overvalued Market [View article]
    Yes, the balance sheet does include foreign assets of US companies. Unfortunately, the FRB doesn't give any easy documentation that I'm aware of for these two balance sheet items. If you're up for some heavy reading, here's an article by Stephen Wright, a Q-ratio expert, on some of the details: www.ems.bbk.ac.uk/facu...

    Interest rates definitely have an impact on market behavior, and I think they are indirectly reflected in the Q Ratio. Their relevance is not to the calculation methology. Rather, I would say that periods of very high or low interest rates can be a factor in sustaining Q valuation extremes. This seems like a good topic to explore in a future charting exercise.
    Sep 20 05:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Real' Mega-Bears [View article]
    James -- Here's a look at recessions and GDP with some comments on the possibility of a double-dip: dshort.com/articles/20...
    Sep 20 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Q Ratio Indicates a Significantly Overvalued Market [View article]
    Kinabalu -- No it's not timely. However the extrapolations I've been making based on VTI in the months following the last two Z1 releases have matched the subsequent Z1 calculations to within a tenth of a percent. So I've come to feel fairly confident in the ability to estimate a monthly Q for the third quarter of 2010.

    Please understand that I'm making no claims that Q gives us any clue about short-term future performance -- only that it gives us a sense of how the current market is valued via the Q formula in comparison to points in time over the past century or more.
    Sep 20 03:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Real' Mega-Bears [View article]
    I use Japan's CPI for the Nikkei: www.stat.go.jp/english...

    Yes, deflation, for all its problems, does make an adjusted market chart look less grim. Click the two links at the top of this page to compare the contours of nominal and real overlay charts: dshort.com/charts/mega...
    Sep 20 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monthly Inflation Update [View article]
    The Alternate CPI chart is now updated on my website: dshort.com/inflation/i...

    I'll request that the chart above is replaced with the latest version.
    Sep 17 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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157 Comments
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