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Doug Short

 
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  • Value vs. Momentum Chart of the Day [View article]
    Thanks for the feedback, David. I highly value your opinions!
    Sep 11 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Ticks Up [View article]
    Interesting, and I especially like the market overlay. For anyone interested in a longer-term perspective on the correlation between the WLI and GDP, here's an overview with a couple of visuals based on the ECRI's published data back to 1967:

    dshort.com/articles/EC...
    Sep 11 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Value vs. Momentum Chart of the Day [View article]
    "Still, I would have loved to see a third line, showing the results of a simple buy-and-hold strategy. Sometimes the easiest things to do are also the most profitable of all."

    I don't have the raw data for the chart above, so I can't reproduce it with the buy-and-hold third line. But I can give you the approximate returns over the same timeframe.

    Using the S&P Composite as the investment vehicle, $1 invested in 1880 would have the following total return2 (dividends reinvested) at the end of last month:

    * Nominal Return = $15.86
    * Real Return = $7.18 (estimate based on CPI and its predecessor)

    For those unfamiliar with the S&P Composite, you can find some background information here: dshort.com/articles/20...
    Sep 11 09:14 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Eerie Implications of Market Volume and Mutual Fund Flows [View article]
    Frosty -- I understand. I wish we had a statistical breakdown of the ratio of HFT over the past few years so we could evaluate the volume without this skew. For example, since 2007, if you excluded HFT in addition to the panic volume you reference, would you still see linear growth?
    Sep 10 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Eerie Implications of Market Volume and Mutual Fund Flows [View article]
    The CNBC item below was posted about 90 minutes after my "Eerie Volume" piece appeared at dshort.com:

    Why Volume Is Still So Light
    www.cnbc.com/id/39082849
    Sep 10 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Perspective on Chicago Fed National Activity Index: An Interesting Indicator In Light of Double-Dip Debate [View article]
    Freddy, Thanks -- that's a persuasive explanation. Nice chart!
    Sep 8 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bob Bronson on Chicago Fed National Activity Index [View article]
    OilFinder -- I think Bob puts the start Supercycle Bear in September 2000, which coincides with the real (inflation-adjusted) peak in the S&P 500. More here: www.financialsensearch...

    Bronson's detailed analysis in the PDF file linked above is a close match to this simple chart that I update monthly: dshort.com/charts/SP-C...
    Sep 8 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Real' Mega-Bears: Update [View article]
    See the '66-'82 segment in the first chart in this link. I used to publish an overlay chart of that period with the 2000-to-present sequence. Maybe I need to find that chart and do an update.
    Sep 6 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Latest ECRI WLI Decline: Leading Recession Indicator or False Negative? [View article]
    Hi Flash -- I sent both kids to UNC, and my granddaughter is named Caroline.
    Sep 6 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regression to Trend: Secular Bull and Bear Markets [View article]
    Frank -- Sorry. The SeekingAlpha reprint has the wrong first chart. See the correct article here.

    dshort.com/articles/re...

    I'll ask the SA staff to make a fix to this version.
    Sep 2 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regression to Trend: Secular Bull and Bear Markets [View article]
    The chart has a base 10 logarithmic y axis. Thus the vertical distance for a 100% gain when the index is priced at 100 is the same as a 100% gain when the index is priced at 1000.

    The line is an exponential regression drawn by Excel. It divides the data points using the "least squares" technique so that it splits the data -- half above, half below.
    Sep 1 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Is Stock Market Cheap? [View article]
    bbro -- I calculate the TTM P/E using the monthly average of daily closes for the price. Since the earliest data I have for the spliced composite since 1871, the TTM P/E is 15.48. The same calculation since 1926 is 16.67. Changing the time slice, naturally, produces different results.

    As for the extreme years, yes. That's why many of us prefer a 10-year real average of earnings denominator to smooths aberrations.
    Sep 1 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Is Stock Market Cheap? [View article]
    eludog -- According to the latest Standard & Poor's spreadsheet, financials accounted for 10.37% of the Q2 index earnings. If that were zeroed out, the TTM P/E would be around 18 instead of the 15.3 I calculated based on yesterday's close.
    Sep 1 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What the 2-10 Treasury Yield Spread Indicator Is Telling Us [View article]
    Cliff -- Here's a link to the complete data series, courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve:
    research.stlouisfed.or...

    There have been brief periods of low FFR in the late '50s and early '60, but nothing like the extended low rates we've experienced in the wake of the Financial Crisis.
    Aug 30 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • World Markets Update [View article]
    Good suggestion! Here's the same chart going back to January 2000:
    dshort.com/charts/Worl...

    This one excludes the Shanghai Composite to show better the spread between the other five:
    dshort.com/charts/Worl...

    The Hang Seng hit its 2007 high about 3 weeks after the S&P 500.
    Aug 29 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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157 Comments
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