Barrick Gold And Harmony Gold Can Inflate Your Portfolio [View article]
You state that ABX has 140mn oz. in proven reserves. That is incorrect. Only 29.7 are proven. The rest are probable. You can determine probabilities to assign to each category by matching their balance sheet statement, which I do not think you did.
Bad News Keeps On Coming For Barrick Gold [View article]
i wouldn't use analyst estimates. They've come down over $1 in the last 60 days. More likely lower 2s for this year (include effect of new PV contract) so trading closer to 10 PE. Dividend yield is not a good measure since its not being covered by free cash flow. The bet here is that they will not be forced into extreme measures due to a declining price of gold. Price of gold goes up to 1600 and stabilizes, it probably trades lower 20s, Price of gold goes down to 1200, watch out
Paulson's Big Bets Have Been The Ultimate Contrarian Indicators For 2 Years Now [View article]
Paulson's one hit wonder came with the housing crisis and he was spoon-fed the trade via the street (GS and DB most likely). Now with the scrutiny over the IBs, he ain't gettin the love anymore and it shows....
Use Linn Energy To Build Income Now [View article]
DCF doesn't include a lot like depreciation - i.e., well declines that need to be replaced....or cap-ex....
Bryce is correct as I looked into the same a few months ago and came to the conclusion the game is: issue expensive shares (and low interest debt) to buy distribution growth. It works until it don't.
EPD made the switch to return on capital. Whether LINE can do the same, not sure...i think when the next tide goes out, it will be some MLPs without the knickers
Linn Energy: Don't Believe The (Negative) Hype [View article]
F-P. it will be hard to convince anyone u r not a basher when this is only your second comment and your other was a bash on QRE...I have no view on either but u r far from the naive investor
Halcon Resources: Does This Oily Hawk Still Fly At A Jumbo Jet Altitude? [View article]
devon's utica is well out in the black oil window - immature - they drilled a few tests and then plugged them...doubt they can sell them for other than some verticals there.....
Q1 Results For American Capital Agency Show Mortgage REIT Dangers [View article]
fwiw- TBA stands for to be announced. Basically u are trading MBS that don't exist at the moment but that someone has to deliver to you at a specified future date. They trade 1-3 months out. Usually you dollar roll meaning you will go from the front month (e.g., May delivery) to the next. The reason guys trade these are they are liquid and once you get a slice from a pool, trading is by appointment. You can also trade the dollar rolls themselves so you are placing a bet on the price of MBS to be delivered btw 2 different months. There are many ways to make/loose money from trading these (e.g., taking a view on future supply for a particular coupon) so it is hard to now what happened here but my guess it was a trade gone bad like the roll widened out on them...
SandRidge Permian Trust - Shares Recovering After Differential Disaster Last Quarter [View article]
no because they drilled far ahead of IPO schedule last year. Peak production will be next year - they have to drill 60/quarter just to maintain production. Recent drop off may be explained by the wells drilled in Q4 not coming on line but u shud see that payback next Q
SandRidge Permian Trust - Shares Recovering After Differential Disaster Last Quarter [View article]
that is a pretty steep drop off. but I am probably not seeing your production numbers near term. I can see a +10% pop next quarter if they held back sales recently but after that only 2% type growth as the 60 wells / quarter really just keeps up with decline...so peak production I see as ~400 late next year.
Yes, keep an eye on their drill program - and fwiw, the language is subs convert to common at the end of the 4th full calendar quarter after drill complete so if drilling ends in 3Q14, which i suspect, then subs-> common on 9/30/15 (i was a bit confused with the lingo at first)
PetroLogistics Pops Dividend: 10% Full-Year Yield Is Possible [View article]
yes, go to yahoo and it says that people who viewed PDH also viewed FB. Thats it....tells u something.....
I think for some, the variable distribution and the "one-product" nature of the buz, makes some wary but, i suspect, it is just not on the radar screen...cheers
PetroLogistics Pops Dividend: 10% Full-Year Yield Is Possible [View article]
One thing to note Tim, they are reserving for increasing inventory to mitigate the effects of the turnaround in Q4. Otherwise, my estimate is that last Qs dividend would have been north of 70c (they produced 10mn more lbs of PGP than sold to build inventory). Also, they had 9 days out in Jan which cost a few too.
For next two quarters, I expect a 6c effect with further inventory builds so am looking for low 30s for Q2 div. I think, on a forward basis, $1.5 is a sustainable level but all depends on the vagaries of the propane and PGP markets. I would note that Gulf propane stocks are up even with the increased exports out of EPD..
PetroLogistics Pops Dividend: 10% Full-Year Yield Is Possible [View article]
I believe the delta btw gap net income and ebitda may lie in the vestigial propane swaps that pre-IPO investors are on the hook for but show up in PDH's income statement. In fact, they recently took them off to make the financials clearer. Last quarter, adjusted EBITDA was 100mn vs 83 mn adj NI
As mentioned by Tim, the borrowings paid off their old term loan at a better interest rate. And dividend fluctuates.
Barrick Gold And Harmony Gold Can Inflate Your Portfolio [View article]
Bad News Keeps On Coming For Barrick Gold [View article]
Paulson's Big Bets Have Been The Ultimate Contrarian Indicators For 2 Years Now [View article]
Bad News Keeps On Coming For Barrick Gold [View article]
Use Linn Energy To Build Income Now [View article]
Bryce is correct as I looked into the same a few months ago and came to the conclusion the game is: issue expensive shares (and low interest debt) to buy distribution growth. It works until it don't.
EPD made the switch to return on capital. Whether LINE can do the same, not sure...i think when the next tide goes out, it will be some MLPs without the knickers
Linn Energy: Don't Believe The (Negative) Hype [View article]
Halcon Resources: Does This Oily Hawk Still Fly At A Jumbo Jet Altitude? [View article]
Q1 Results For American Capital Agency Show Mortgage REIT Dangers [View article]
SandRidge Permian Trust - Shares Recovering After Differential Disaster Last Quarter [View article]
SandRidge Permian Trust - Shares Recovering After Differential Disaster Last Quarter [View article]
Yes, keep an eye on their drill program - and fwiw, the language is subs convert to common at the end of the 4th full calendar quarter after drill complete so if drilling ends in 3Q14, which i suspect, then subs-> common on 9/30/15 (i was a bit confused with the lingo at first)
Bill Powers: Pickens And Stansberry Wrong, Shale Gas Production To Fall [View article]
PetroLogistics Pops Dividend: 10% Full-Year Yield Is Possible [View article]
I think for some, the variable distribution and the "one-product" nature of the buz, makes some wary but, i suspect, it is just not on the radar screen...cheers
Bill Powers: Pickens And Stansberry Wrong, Shale Gas Production To Fall [View article]
PetroLogistics Pops Dividend: 10% Full-Year Yield Is Possible [View article]
For next two quarters, I expect a 6c effect with further inventory builds so am looking for low 30s for Q2 div. I think, on a forward basis, $1.5 is a sustainable level but all depends on the vagaries of the propane and PGP markets. I would note that Gulf propane stocks are up even with the increased exports out of EPD..
good luck
PetroLogistics Pops Dividend: 10% Full-Year Yield Is Possible [View article]
As mentioned by Tim, the borrowings paid off their old term loan at a better interest rate. And dividend fluctuates.