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Douglas E. Johnston  

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  • Enduro Royalty Trust: Putting A Big Squeeze On Income Investors [View article]
    the cost to short and fear of squeeze is the only thing that keeps price up
    Mar 13, 2015. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calumet Specialty Products: No Fuel For Growth [View article]
    they typically have issued around this time every year, last year excepted. It is the seasonally strong season so the street takes down the paper and then runs it up into June and dumps. Might be worth a short-term piggy back as the they'll probably defend share price here...

    In the past, they issued to buy more "production" now it is to reduce leverage. Depending on results and how quickly they want to get leverage down, they should/will? issue another 7 next spring. I'm still not convinced these guys have their act together (anchor and SOS is going to be bad)....gl
    Mar 13, 2015. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calumet Specialty Products: No Fuel For Growth [View article]
    They finally issued equity. I guess they figured leverage a over 5x is not too smart for a supposed income vehicle. And they do it right as the seasonal strength peaks so that the street can run it up on Q1 results and dump on yield investors for a tidy profit....and the wheel goes round
    Mar 12, 2015. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BioScrip's Turnaround Story Will Turn Around Some Heads [View article]
    I'd also mention, they amended the credit facility so that the 7.25 leverage covenant is in effect for the next year. With the facility down to $140mn out after prefereds, target is 20mn adj EBITDA min. The '14 run rate was 40 with another 15 in cost savings that are "locked" in. Revenue should be $1bn and with 8% margin, target is, call it, $50-75mn in adj EBITDA for '15 (NI any 100% reserve collected). Take mid and 13 multiple with a bit more debt paydown, I see a $7 price fully diluted. There is a big IF in there though...gl
    Mar 12, 2015. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BioScrip's Turnaround Story Will Turn Around Some Heads [View article]
    yes - feeling a bit humbled at the moment, although we did keep powder dry given the likelihood of a poor Q4. The capital raise of $82.5mn, IMO, improves the chances of success and reduces the debt load to call it $350mn. It will add about 20mn shares fully dilutive assuming rights are fully subscribed. We'd note the preferred has a convert of $5.17 and warrants (10y) are struck at 5.30 and 6.60 so all OTM at the moment. Previously, the market put about a 15x multiple on $50mn EBITDA (~6.5/share mid trade range). Using a similar metric full dilution would put at $5.9/share. If we use say $5 for pre-issuance, then cap raise/debt paydown implies a drop to $4.75. So seems like Mr. Market is putting a decent risk-premium into recent announcements - clearly the CFO was whacked because of not being clean with the bad receivables. Either one believes that the bones are out of the closet and the new board and (possibly new) management get the gig or not. The issue I am grappling with now is are the rights a better buy or the equity given current price.
    Mar 11, 2015. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources: Built To Survive [View article]
    reserves for '14 were effective flat although PV-10 went down due to a wider differential (they use TTM average). Of course, with oil down considerable for '15 we will see reserves down and PV-10 by a decent amount i imagine.
    Mar 2, 2015. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources: Built To Survive [View article]
    true - they have floods that are baking that wil come on line but better to keep it in the ground if u do not have a lot of debt to service...unfortunately they have decent interest expense but fortunately no maturities until 2021
    Mar 2, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources: Built To Survive [View article]
    i agree plus they have a decent amount of mature fields that haven't undergone floods that have low declines...i am using about 10% at zero capex...might be a bit high but conservative
    Mar 2, 2015. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources: Built To Survive [View article]
    no plan to increase dividend in 2015 so still at 25c or 3%
    Mar 2, 2015. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources: Built To Survive [View article]
    Just to be clear. When we stated "...additional cost savings (with lag) down to the lower $30s/boe..." those are non-interest cash costs. When including interest ~6/boe and depletion ~22/boe, their "earnings" breakeven will be about $60-62/boe without hedges.
    Feb 27, 2015. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: The Good News Keeps On Floating In [View article]
    rates and earnings were a bit disappointing to me. Rates were below Clarkson average for Q4 and Q1 to date. Revised down my CAD to ~$1.25 for 2015 and earnings 65c/share. So currently trading at about 9-10x fwd PE. I am still using a 20% drop in TCEs for Q2/3 which may not occur with low crude price/tanker storage demand - so playing it conservative. Modestly cheap here still and still maintaining price target of $9 given '16 earnings in the $1+ range
    Feb 24, 2015. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: The Good News Keeps On Floating In [View article]
    i don't know. we're up 100% from the low so doesn't seem like a headache to me.
    Feb 14, 2015. 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: The Good News Keeps On Floating In [View article]
    the seasonality is rough too and the street tries to shake people out during the summer doldrums...I think we are in a multi-year cycle but yes, there are many factors (macro included) that can burn this trade. I don't look for a divvy bump until 2016 as they continue to reinvest cash flow
    Feb 14, 2015. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: The Good News Keeps On Floating In [View article]
    i think we are more in the beginning of the cycle but agree its cyclical in nature. Not sure that the higher TCEs will lead to orders until people see them stick for a while (2-3years) - too many got burned during the last downturn - so I foresee, as many do, a fleet decline over the next few years. This has been and will be nice to own along with some crude names that are survivors...gl
    Feb 14, 2015. 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: The Good News Keeps On Floating In [View article]
    thanks - interesting comments
    Feb 14, 2015. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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