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Douglas E. Johnston

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  • KKR Financial: KKR Should Pay More For Us [View article]
    looked in line to me....PE sector is weak...they made the offer at the right time!
    Apr 9 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These 2 High-Yield Picks Could Supercharge Your Portfolio With Dividends And Capital Appreciation [View article]
    "Even if rates rise, it probably won't be by much,...."

    wow, thanks for that reassurance....lets load up!
    Apr 9 09:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another $800 Million Down The Drain For Bank Of America Shareholders [View article]
    have to admit a prolific author....i count 9 articles on Mar 28'th alone on stocks across the board....impressive...but always concerns me about lack of depth...
    Apr 4 03:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar Inc. Heading Towards The Right Direction [View article]
    I think the grammar is pretty bad in this article and I'm confused by the title "Heading Towards The Right Direction"...does that imply they are in the wrong direction now but changing....
    Apr 4 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Bull Market In Timber [View article]
    Liquidity in DEL is not so good so you really need to be comfortable with your buy-in price. My analysis leads me to conclude that "real" yield is in the 3-4% ballpark assuming a more modest $350 lumber price. Treasury TIPs are 1-1.25% so you are getting 2 to 2.5 points over for equity and single commodity risk (imperfect inflation hedge). Is that good? Not sure. Lumber is down around 325 - i am not seasoned enuf to know if that is seasonal or a reflection of a slowing economy. The end result of my peripheral analysis is that the entry point here is not good.....
    Apr 4 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deltic Timber Corp., A Second Look [View article]
    thank you
    Apr 4 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deltic Timber Corp., A Second Look [View article]
    hi tom - i just started looking at this and, like you, I'm not convinced on upside. I see book value as more like 60 given what they sold/bot acres <= 1,500 but a bit more on real question is more on forestry: Is the southern pine beetle a serious risk?
    Apr 3 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    to be honest, have not really been following XCO that closely for a while. We still own a minor bond position. Nothing much has changed in my opinion and we've been focused on other NG names. It does seem like sentiment in the NG curve has improved with back contracts trading better so it does not surprise me XCO pps has improved. Glad for the longs.

    As Chris says, the statement doesn't mean much - just a shelf. And I take it that Ares is reducing their position, which I thought they did a while ago but please check me on that.....

    as for chris, - i've spoken to him numerous times but before this article. He's a busy guy I would imagine.....
    Apr 3 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Bull Market In Timber [View article]
    Hi Burt - Is that a "lumber" price that you show as in $/MBF? And can you provide a link to the data? Last year DEL earned $384 per MBF breaking the 2005 peak of $369. (The actual "sawtimber" price is stuck at 22 down from 45 in 2005 although it is a transfer price as you state). So its unclear to me if earnings growth will come from pricing or volumes over the next few years.

    Also, the (log-log?) regression I assume uses overlapping 10year windows so you are probably picking up some spurious correlations given the trendy data. Just looking at the raw data in your first chart, I don't see a strong case for "mean-reversion" which is what you value proposition is based on. That said, I am a bit biased towards higher prices long-term.

    I think its an interesting story - and the company seems conservatively run, which I like - but for the value investor in me to get excited, would like to see it selling cheaper....
    Apr 3 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullard sees first rate hike in less than a year [View news story]
    "sees no bubble now": he's too busy getting all the gooey pink sticky stuff out of his hair from the last time around
    Apr 2 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KKR Financial: KKR Should Pay More For Us [View article]
    we need Leon to express his displeasure
    Apr 2 04:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Bull Market In Timber [View article]
    heh Burt - liked your work on Alcoa and we followed u in after some thank -> what is your thoughts around price? Its 30+ PE and 20x on OCF ? I guess its all about the growth prospects...but still seems high no? Any thoughts on what part of capital expend is growth vs recurring and what type ROIC they have....i'm gonna have to saw through this a bit more....thanks for the article
    Apr 2 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KKR Financial: KKR Should Pay More For Us [View article]
    Here is the story around the (TXU) bonds that KFN owns. KKR, which is losing all its ~2bn in equity, will be getting these bonds at 70cents on the dollar if the buy-out goes through. They are senior and worth a lot more, which is another reason why we believe KKR is getting KFN way too cheap...we voted no to the merger!
    Apr 2 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Future reorg plan to nearly wipe out P-E owners' stakes [View news story]
    kkr is buying kfn on the cheap and kfn owns a decent stake in the seniors....surprise, surprise
    Apr 2 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust: The Best mREIT In America Is Firing On All Cylinders [View article]
    another pump right before a secondary
    Apr 2 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment