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Douglas E. Johnston  

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  • Teekay Tankers: The Good News Keeps On Floating In [View article]
    rates and earnings were a bit disappointing to me. Rates were below Clarkson average for Q4 and Q1 to date. Revised down my CAD to ~$1.25 for 2015 and earnings 65c/share. So currently trading at about 9-10x fwd PE. I am still using a 20% drop in TCEs for Q2/3 which may not occur with low crude price/tanker storage demand - so playing it conservative. Modestly cheap here still and still maintaining price target of $9 given '16 earnings in the $1+ range
    Feb 24, 2015. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: The Good News Keeps On Floating In [View article]
    i don't know. we're up 100% from the low so doesn't seem like a headache to me.
    Feb 14, 2015. 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: The Good News Keeps On Floating In [View article]
    the seasonality is rough too and the street tries to shake people out during the summer doldrums...I think we are in a multi-year cycle but yes, there are many factors (macro included) that can burn this trade. I don't look for a divvy bump until 2016 as they continue to reinvest cash flow
    Feb 14, 2015. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: The Good News Keeps On Floating In [View article]
    i think we are more in the beginning of the cycle but agree its cyclical in nature. Not sure that the higher TCEs will lead to orders until people see them stick for a while (2-3years) - too many got burned during the last downturn - so I foresee, as many do, a fleet decline over the next few years. This has been and will be nice to own along with some crude names that are survivors...gl
    Feb 14, 2015. 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: The Good News Keeps On Floating In [View article]
    thanks - interesting comments
    Feb 14, 2015. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources Can Be Avoided At Current Levels [View article]
    "According to the company, every $10 decline in oil prices is likely to impact the company's cash flow by $200 million. I therefore believe that the company's revised OCF will be in the range of $600 to $700 million."

    What about hedges? And impact of oil price on cash cost/boe? This "analysis" seems very superficial.
    Feb 13, 2015. 02:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BioScrip's Turnaround Story Will Turn Around Some Heads [View article]
    Thanks for comment. Yes, I recognized that HSP is a bit different - manufacturer vs delivery man. Mentioned it in the article but should have been clearer. That and size is why I think a 20 multiple (buyout) would be quite high for a BIOS type. Those two you mention are also a bit different than BIOS delivering care but a quick look one trades at 11x the other 20x EV/EBITDA (unverified). I guess my main point is if they can get their margins going in the right direction - which seems quite doable - then you could be looking at some serious gains. $100mn in EBITDA does not seem outlandish and at 15x that would be more than a double....thanks again
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BioScrip's Turnaround Story Will Turn Around Some Heads [View article]
    when i say "shenanigans" I don't mean to imply any misdeed. simply a stretching of the rules
    Feb 12, 2015. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BioScrip's Turnaround Story Will Turn Around Some Heads [View article]
    well - a lot of activists are involved with this name so it seemed to me the poor integration of the acquisitions meant the sword for someone. Especially since guys like Shaffer and Gabelli have probably lost patience. Hai never impressed me on the CCs that i've listened to and his resume is not that impressive. He's had time to make this work and my sense is he was in over his head. I'm guessing that the new board wanted him gone. Could there be some accounting shenanigans in there too? Yes, would not surprise me, but in the end its about turning this ship in the right direction.
    Feb 12, 2015. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BioScrip's Turnaround Story Will Turn Around Some Heads [View article]
    The deal by Rite-Aid buying EnvisionRX (PBM) for about 13x Enterprise value. That would put a $17/shr sticker on BIOS if they can straighten out their margins. I think Infusion should have a higher mult. than PBM as its growth. Seems their is big appetite out their for M&A in this sector if mgt. here can just get their act together. We'll see
    Feb 12, 2015. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance Corp.: A Strong Buy After The Company Cut Its Dividend [View article]
    well said eternitus141
    Feb 11, 2015. 01:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hologic: Carl Icahn Pushing For All-Time Highs [View article]
    We are still bullish on HOLX from our original article http://seekingalpha.co...

    Seems that $1bn in EBITDA is in the cards and a 15x multiple, 3bn debt reduction puts this at a low 40 buyout valuation minimum.
    Feb 10, 2015. 03:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Accumulate Fifth Street Finance Shares? [View article]
    gotta love "the first law of holes"!....
    Feb 10, 2015. 03:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KKR -4.9% after taking big marks on energy portfolio [View news story]
    serves them right for "stealing" KFN's energy assets last year
    Feb 10, 2015. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance now off 13.6% after big dividend cut [View news story]
    It was only a matter of time

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 10, 2015. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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