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Douglas E. Johnston

 
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  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II- Nightmare Turning Into Reality [View article]
    SDR is a royalty trust not an MLP per se. Not all MLPs are poor neither are all trusts. Most of the trusts issued over last 5-years have been disasters - just look at the parents, as they say! but there are some OK ones.....and price is the key
    Aug 15 05:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II- Nightmare Turning Into Reality [View article]
    so would it be reasonable to say, based on price differential SDR vs SDT, that we need to see about $1.75 in distributions over the next year to break even?
    Aug 14 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II- Nightmare Turning Into Reality [View article]
    hi Hugh - 80% first year decline is not atypical. In fact, fitting SDR's actual production, including the aging of older wells, gives a best fit decline of 78% on year 1, 50% year 2... (per well). And then one needs to consider costs which will become a larger % of revenue. All total, these trusts are quite risky and seem to trade at stated current yield.
    Aug 14 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II- Nightmare Turning Into Reality [View article]
    thanks ART - appreciate your compliment - helps to negate the grief one takes for being negative on a stock. That, Dan and I can agree on since he took heat a while back for his prescient SDR/T calls....credit him....I am just a bit more negative on this trust...the wells stink to high-heaven....
    Aug 13 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II- Nightmare Turning Into Reality [View article]
    i think your decline curve is too optimistic. we've fit the historical behavior of their wells and see steeper declines in distributions in the year's ahead. We believe dist will be sub 20c upon sub conversion next fall and fall below 10c before end of the decade. Are you fitting their well performance and are you incorporating costs (fixed and per mCfe)?.....needless to say, we see fair as much lower and current investors will lose money over time....
    Aug 13 10:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Panic Over Lipitor Litigation? [View article]
    dat em reel phunny
    Aug 13 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Panic Over Lipitor Litigation? [View article]
    Hard to believe u are a junior at GWU given the poor grammar in your opening paragraph....
    Aug 11 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will A Switch From Natural Gas To Oil Boost Exco Resources? [View article]
    cashew - they either bot the hedge when NG prices were higher (like mid June), which would have been a good call, or they did it "in the money", which I doubt, as the current strip is $3.99 for 2015 up from about $3.80 a week or so ago.
    Aug 6 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will A Switch From Natural Gas To Oil Boost Exco Resources? [View article]
    betting on putin and the weather....You're a better man than I am, Gunga Din!
    Aug 5 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II Announces Quarterly Distribution [View article]
    even more disappointing than my projections from last Q....the wells continue to indicate poor quality - surprise, surprise
    Aug 1 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will A Switch From Natural Gas To Oil Boost Exco Resources? [View article]
    D/D - that would be nice as we own some equity that should do well in that scenario - of course, betting on putin is an interesting thesis
    Jul 30 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will A Switch From Natural Gas To Oil Boost Exco Resources? [View article]
    AM - for the first six months of the year, XCO lost money when the average HH nat gas price was $4.90 and their hedges were at $4.25. Why do u think the stock is going to go up ~50% if we get to $4.5?
    Jul 30 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will A Switch From Natural Gas To Oil Boost Exco Resources? [View article]
    "penultimate"...second to last?
    Jul 30 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will A Switch From Natural Gas To Oil Boost Exco Resources? [View article]
    DVL - true, there is no evidence of such. In fact, it is more likely that assets are worth maybe $2-3/share given market prices (futures curves). Now some argue that NG will be $6+ and oil $150 in 2015 and beyond. But more likely the rest is the "wilbur premium"
    Jul 30 05:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will A Switch From Natural Gas To Oil Boost Exco Resources? [View article]
    Not hedging implies increased risk. They didn't hedge because they thought the uptick last spring would continue. It did not and now they face a very difficult decision. The trend in storage injections implies we will be back to normal levels by October. And the mild summer is making that a more likely bet. What happens if NG goes down to $2? If u believe that NG is going to 4.5 you can just buy liquid contracts and not mess with a company that has a poor balance sheet. The forward NG strip for 2015 is about $3.85. If the market believed in the export story, it would not be there.

    I am sorry but your article and thesis is not well thought out.
    Jul 30 05:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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