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Douglas E. Johnston  

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  • Cliffs Natural Resources: There's No Bottom In Sight [View article]
    jm2c...its all about perception. they had the chance to issue equity, cut dividend and going all out to support balance sheet. Instead, they decided to keep div and buyback shares.
    Oct 3, 2014. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: There's No Bottom In Sight [View article]
    they are not fixed contracts. they adjust periodically based on the TTM price of IO
    Oct 3, 2014. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: What Just Happened? [View article]
    Richard. ... i wouldn't call it an investment ;-) We bot some long dated lottery tickets. I agree we should not make much of the hedging or lack thereof - they still only have 30-40% of 2015 anticipated prod. hedged depending on how you view their option positions. And the potential KKR oil buys are not hedged. It seems to me that the Wilbur premium finally has come out of the stock. It never should have been trading at $5-6+. I said that a year ago (pat, pat). Leo, the RBC guy, has actually been following the stock for a while and while his comments were a bit loose, the point is fact - they really don't make money at $4 ng. I think the bonds are interesting if u can get them closer to 10% yield. g/l
    Oct 3, 2014. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: What Just Happened? [View article]
    Heh Richard, good article as always. I pin the equity value at somewhere in the $3.5 - $4 range, depending on what pricing assumptions are used. I think the fact that they kept the dividend, when they have cash flow needs, and then hedged NG at the probable lows was really the last straw for some. It's amazing to me the foolish mistakes they've made (although much blame on Miller). We bot some over the last two days as a speculative trade (mostly thru calls). Wish me luck!

    One thing: XCO is not obligated to buy the KKR interests. If they don't then KKR no longer needs to accept XCO future offers. It will be interesting to see what happens. I don't think they can really walk away given the price they paid on the land-equity. On a positive, at least they might not have to buy PV-10 at 100+!
    Oct 3, 2014. 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: What Just Happened? [View article]
    and that's your first comment on SA - u could have done better
    Oct 3, 2014. 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: What Just Happened? [View article]
    good one DVL! :-)
    Oct 3, 2014. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: What Just Happened? [View article]
    they still have a lot of exposure to the '15 NG strip. And remember they have those calls hanging around their neck
    Oct 3, 2014. 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources sinks to all-time lows after hedging against lower gas prices [View news story]
    yeah like selling calls so u cud set the swap strike higher was a brilliant idea...face it, these guys are terrible. They could have hedged when the '15 strips was 4.80 but no, they rolled the dice. They took a play out of Miller's playbook. Now they are hedging at the probable lows. No wonder its a revolving door at the CEO's office.
    Oct 3, 2014. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. Reports on Sustainability Progress [View article]
    glad to hear no "work related fatalities". For investors, a different story!
    Oct 1, 2014. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will A Switch From Natural Gas To Oil Boost Exco Resources? [View article]
    no way this is worth $12. actual book value is probably about $4/share using todays futures strip curves. Maybe someone buy for premium there if u think ng/oil will be 5-6/100+ but unlikely more than $5. Better to focus on fundamentals at this point instead of trying to reverse engineer wilbur's thought process. we bot some today as a spec.
    Sep 30, 2014. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Stuck In A Quagmire [View article]
    yeah - a bit surprised myself how quickly we got to target. Lots of stuff getting massacred. Could be a spec buy here bounce back to 12 but we need to see them actually do something constructive with balance sheet.
    Sep 30, 2014. 03:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EV Energy to sell interest in Cardinal Gas Services for ~$162M [View news story]
    nice sale
    Sep 23, 2014. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Stuck In A Quagmire [View article]
    could be --- still as you commented somewhere else (i think), the buybacks add risk....until we see balance sheet improvement, be careful
    Sep 22, 2014. 02:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar dealer sales fell 10% in latest three months [View news story]
    it was all buybacks @taplinger....and they are getting tapped out
    Sep 22, 2014. 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold: Ultimate Value Or Dud? [View article]
    good grief...you are quoting a report well over a year old and before $4bn in infused capital.

    "ABX could go broke. " got news for you: We all could.
    Sep 16, 2014. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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