Seeking Alpha

Douglas E. Johnston

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Douglas E. Johnston's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Barrick Gold Corporation: March Long-Term Pick [View article]
    no question that ABX has finally gotten its act together....some think it was an orchestrated short that drove ABX down...others just took a good look at their balance sheet last year and came to the conclusion it was rich....

    but now, they've got so much cash - another $185mn today - that they can start to think of growing...and 1370 doesn't hurt....
    Mar 12 02:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calumet Specialty Product Partners: Do The 2 Recent Acquisitions Threaten The Distribution? [View article]
    @shughes - i went through my numbers and using data to date along with CME futures data and I compute that CLMT's "implied spread" will up 4% from Q4 but pretty much flat to 2013. I compute the spread they earn per boe produced at 12.25-12.75. The midpoint produces EBITDA in the $350mn range and 70% dcf coverage (inc acquisitions). If they issue all shares ~12mn at $25, they will stabilize the balance sheet with ~3x leverage. I'd expect the bulk of the issuance to be in the next 3 months as they show "improved" results due to seasonal crack spreads effect. It will be interesting to see how the street manages this - some pretty big hitters are underwriting
    Mar 12 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    yes div alive this Q. i think it is still in play given cash flow outlook for later this year/2015.....could be a buyout but I am skeptical...the executive contracts to this summer might just be a function of the turmoil at YE (losing miller and cao) - couldn't afford to have others jump ship. good luck
    Mar 12 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calumet Specialty Product Partners: Do The 2 Recent Acquisitions Threaten The Distribution? [View article]
    @shughes -- i use a weighted combination of all of CLMTs inputs including Bakken, WCS, Bow-River, LLS, etc. etc. based on their production numbers. I use those and "match" clmt's results (i.e., their cost vs sales/boe) via a regression that fits well (e.g., it adjusts for potential discounts)...all in all, i am fairly confident - no I am very confident, that our model is as accurate as possible, which is why Adam's numbers seem way off....i will review when I get a chance and potentially write an article with details ....
    Mar 11 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calumet Specialty Product Partners: Do The 2 Recent Acquisitions Threaten The Distribution? [View article]
    maybe you can elaborate on the operating income (base case, prior to acquisitions) you are estimating in 2014 and on what volumes. Your numbers seem outrageously high to me. So either you have volumes much higher than me or your spread between sales/boe and cost/boe are much wider than current crack spreads imply.....we've been using our spreadsheet to predict CLMT's results for the last year with decent accuracy so I am a bit skeptical.....

    today's 300mn in capital raise via new equity is in line with my prior projections and will be used to fund distributions
    Mar 11 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BRT Realty Trust Is Still Cheap [View article]
    i am afraid Robin is right...look at the fees that BRT pays and to whom...totally Gouldish
    Mar 6 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    yes the Buda card is interesting...its very much a wild-cat option given the nature of the play (i.e., natural fracing) but it you can find it its cheap to drill and prolific in year one at least

    one thing that I have never gotten a good answer on - and I've asked - is exactly what does the lease cover
    Mar 6 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Rock Energy: 4 Reasons Why This 12.4%-Yielding Stock Is A 'Strong Buy' [View article]
    Do you realize you only follow one other SA author? and it is yourself? I think you should at least follow a few more to keep up pretenses
    Mar 5 04:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders Are Buying Up General Electric [View article]
    Where would GE be if it was priced like CAT? hmmmmm
    Mar 5 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PotashCorp Prices Offering of US $750 Million of 10-Year Notes [View article]
    its amazing. 10 year debt for only 3.625% refi'ing 5.25%...and its probably callable to boot..... another $8mn saved....god bless the Fed
    Mar 5 08:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    @glf4mny: yes mla99 answered your question. A bit of a nasty dig on my part but I found his (RonB's) comment arrogant and chiding. It got the better of me
    Mar 5 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    @builder - i agree that it is all in the eye of the beholder. One note is that with NG at 4.5, they basically break even on their proved reserves but really need to see it sustained above 5+ for their unproven reserves to be even considered.
    Mar 5 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: An Explosive Growth Story That Is Set To Sail [View article]
    @dave - yes. I think you are confusing TNK with another company. But sounds interesting!
    Mar 5 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    @justy - i looked at the reserves and I don't see the $2bn in unrecognized asset value given where the natural gas strip curve is. At today's prices, i find it hard to get much for undeveloped and unproved reserves given their costs ~2.70ish (inc iinterest, G&A, etc.) and the finding costs of 1.70 per.....I would agree with you that if the tail for the futures curve was averaging more like $5, then there would be value in those contingency reserves - its worth going back to their July 2010 and 2011 presentations to see what they valued it back then against the price deck they used. The other issue is out of their stated 11tcfe of unproven, back then, how much can one expect to still be there in a few years? If it turns out that the NG strip curve is wrong (a negative risk-premium built in), then things will be brighter....
    Mar 4 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    @dirk - are all 3 on the board (s/k)? and do you think they received different information than was originally disseminated to the public?

    and, yes, you are most welcome to write an article...it would certainly be interesting to hear your views...
    Mar 4 08:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,527 Comments
961 Likes