Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Douglas E. Johnston  

View Douglas E. Johnston's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Will A Switch From Natural Gas To Oil Boost Exco Resources? [View article]
    DVL - true, there is no evidence of such. In fact, it is more likely that assets are worth maybe $2-3/share given market prices (futures curves). Now some argue that NG will be $6+ and oil $150 in 2015 and beyond. But more likely the rest is the "wilbur premium"
    Jul 30, 2014. 05:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will A Switch From Natural Gas To Oil Boost Exco Resources? [View article]
    Not hedging implies increased risk. They didn't hedge because they thought the uptick last spring would continue. It did not and now they face a very difficult decision. The trend in storage injections implies we will be back to normal levels by October. And the mild summer is making that a more likely bet. What happens if NG goes down to $2? If u believe that NG is going to 4.5 you can just buy liquid contracts and not mess with a company that has a poor balance sheet. The forward NG strip for 2015 is about $3.85. If the market believed in the export story, it would not be there.

    I am sorry but your article and thesis is not well thought out.
    Jul 30, 2014. 05:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will A Switch From Natural Gas To Oil Boost Exco Resources? [View article]
    and it looks like they did not add any hedges for 2015...ouch
    Jul 30, 2014. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will A Switch From Natural Gas To Oil Boost Exco Resources? [View article]
    auto44 - i couldn't agree more
    Jul 30, 2014. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will A Switch From Natural Gas To Oil Boost Exco Resources? [View article]
    its all about cash flow...they had $68mn in operating cash flow vs 100mn in cap spend and 13 in div payments. The only reason that cash did not decline is because debt went up. Note the change (under current liab.) in rev and roy payments and drill advance....money owed....unfortunately, things will not look better and the big IF is whether they hedged 2015 yet because they'd have to lock in at 3.80ish now...lets hope they did o.w., its a real risk...
    Jul 30, 2014. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar - Investors Ignore Low Quality And Financially Engineered Earnings [View article]
    i don't think it is ethical to book sales as revenue when u are financing those same sales but calling it a capital expenditure - totally legal and GAAP but just smells bad to me...
    Jul 28, 2014. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar - Investors Ignore Low Quality And Financially Engineered Earnings [View article]
    i don't things look "gloomy" at all for the stock...seems like there is a balance between the longs and shorts....gloomy would be if this was trading at like a 12 PE...jm2c
    Jul 28, 2014. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar - Investors Ignore Low Quality And Financially Engineered Earnings [View article]
    it is a large member of the dow - so there is the index benefit - and also used (because of size/liquidity) in many index replication strategies where not all 500 or 10000 names are/can be held.
    Jul 28, 2014. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Refiners slide sharply lower after U.S. widens oil export potential [View news story]
    not sure pump prices go down but refining margins should decline as, you are right, they've made a lot of $$$s last few years....
    Jun 27, 2014. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Refiners slide sharply lower after U.S. widens oil export potential [View news story]
    are u kidding me?

    "In the Eagle Ford in south Texas, about 70 percent of it falls into a category called condensates, which are ultra-light hydrocarbons."

    most shale oil is of the lighter variety since crude is hard to squeeze out of rocks
    Jun 26, 2014. 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Refiners slide sharply lower after U.S. widens oil export potential [View news story]
    the only difference btw "crude" and "condensate" is API. < 45 is considered crude; > 45 condensate...its oil, plain and simple, and quite a few refineries use it as input. All oil has "unstable elements" and gasses to be split out. THe winners are the guys that gather...
    Jun 26, 2014. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enduro Royalty Trust Should Be In Your Portfolio [View article]
    wait a month
    Jun 26, 2014. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enduro Royalty Trust Should Be In Your Portfolio [View article]
    much better timing this time around, Tom
    Jun 25, 2014. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Offers Investors A Golden Opportunity [View article]
    please provide proof of your first (rather bold) comment on SA that "ABX has decided to HEDGE its production"
    Jun 25, 2014. 02:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Refiners slide sharply lower after U.S. widens oil export potential [View news story]
    condensate can be simply split from the gasses directly near the well head so it should benefit the gatherers...its the more expensive/complex refining that becomes unneeded. still might be an over reaction but they were ready for the seasonal slump soon anyway
    Jun 25, 2014. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,769 Comments
1,101 Likes