Is Exelon Dividend Cut Enough To Generate Buy Recommendations? [View article]
Spiker - i read thru 10q, cc and recent EEI conference. My understanding is that there will be pension contributions of roughly 550 mn over the next few years to top up the pension funds that are currently underfunded (even with the recent "win" from Illinois). Listening to their CC it seems this will come off the top of cash flow, so instead of $6bn in '13 more like 5.5 - do u read it that way?
Is Exelon Dividend Cut Enough To Generate Buy Recommendations? [View article]
if u add in the $$$ that GLW spent on buyback, the yield is much higher....can't say about what happened with it two years ago, talking today....i looked at EXC, and while they are in better shape than 6 months ago, I sill see them spending quite a bit this year, leaving them with a need to increase debt further, although it looks like they are getting some gov't loans...I no longer think it is an obvious short but, until I do some more digging, I can't say its a buy --
Is Exelon Dividend Cut Enough To Generate Buy Recommendations? [View article]
decent balanced article but I am still unclear why one would invest here vs say INTC or GLW, who both yield more, have better cash flow, have much better balance sheets and trade at lower P/B and PEs....I feel there is still a ton of risk around this name as "new" dividend looks barely covered after reduced capex and increased debt in '12. And they look like they are going to increase debt further in '13 to maintain cash balance, + pension issues, reliance on Nuke stream, etc., etc....feels like a hold at best -> Id have interest in the mid 20s.....
Exelon: Buy For The Dividend, Stay For The Growth [View article]
I wudn't cite one days move in the market as acceptance especially since, after the first pop, it slide down all day long on good volume. And much of the 41 cents up-move is due to they did not immediately cut the div, for whatever that is worth. Not everyone reacts on day one and I suspect people will be looking to get out on pops - many trapped longs from "when the dividend is rick-solid"
Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
I learned a long time ago not to try to predict FX outside of the one that has easier monetary policy tends to weaken and vice-versa although even that blows up in a currency crisis (e.g., sweden early 90s).
As one commenter pointed out it does help alleviate a bit of pricing pressure as the yen manufacturers can lighten up a bit. I need to find out if they GLW are just under hedged or if it is slippage. Hopefully, they will talk about it this morning..cheers
Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
Moon - I am still trying to get info related to your claim that gorilla glass has already been replaced by "HP and many others"... with what, dragontail, or schott....i see that HPs new elitebooks are using gorilla...can u give us evidence to your comment?
We were ultimately vindicated but I still see this company having cash flow issue in '13/'14 but will have to update my analysis...
I don't really see any fundamental analysis in this article...it all seems to be predicated on your belief that electricity prices are going higher but I am not sure the forwards agree with you...
I believe they should have a higher dividend than the basket, like 4.5% say, meaning we are fully priced here IMHO
Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
no problem...we all have thick skins....at a minimum, you made me investigate and learn about "injunctive channelling" and "insurance neutrality"....seems like PCC is close to a reorg with GLW having already posted 650mn on the balance sheet as non-current liability, which should >< satisfy all...seems like a few parties are squabbling about the detailed language but seems resolvable with a few $mn in lawyer fees ;-0....i find it difficult to believe after 10 years, they don't have this all reserved up but maybe for safety, take 50c off the bv/share....cheers...u... I can't make it into city tomorrow o.w. we could have met up....glty...lemme know what u learn
Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
well i sense you might be trying to incite fear...
a) More than 2/3 of the 50k claims are back by insurance - but, as you might imagine, the insurers are balking a bit.
b) GLW only owns 50% of PCC
c) The recent BK plan, including asbestos settlement, was approved by more than 99% of asbestos creditors
d) The plan would put GLW on the hook for ~$300mn over six years, which I believe is properly reserved for
e) The plan was "rejected" by the court but the court "..rejected some objections to the Amended PCC Plan and made suggestions regarding modifications to the Amended PCC Plan that would allow the Plan to be confirmed"
I am not a lawyer, but it sounds like they are almost there. Here is the recent court decision from 2011:
Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
Yes, to the degree that a yen devaluation takes a bit off the pricing pressures they have felt recently, it would help but net it is still a drag. They did mention in their CC that part of the pricing pressures they've felt recently was root caused by a strong Yen.
I agree that buybacks are a big factor as witnessed by my discussion on distributable cash flow yield, which is what investors should focus on
We tend to be very conservative in our projections and, if the story still passes our IRR hurdle, then we buy. If not, pass. If it turns out your conjectures on demand are better than ours, we will both be happy.
Lastly, why do you suggest I am comparing INTC to GLW?
Barrick Gold Through The Lens Of A Discounted Cash Flow Model [View article]
Miners over-leveraged themselves with costly acquisitions and capital expenditures over the last few years and now it is haunting them. e.g., ABX bot a copper mine in Saudi Arabia that was suppose to be running but now apparently they do not have the proper permits to store explosives and it wont start up till '14. Go figure that one. A gold price decline would be very painful for these guys (think natural gas in 2012).... I think with ABX, it lasts for at least another year or so - so if u want to bet gold, bet gold.....jm2c
Is Exelon Dividend Cut Enough To Generate Buy Recommendations? [View article]
Is Exelon Dividend Cut Enough To Generate Buy Recommendations? [View article]
Is Exelon Dividend Cut Enough To Generate Buy Recommendations? [View article]
Dividend Cut Overhang Removed, Exelon Set To Fly High [View article]
Dividend Cut Overhang Removed, Exelon Set To Fly High [View article]
Exelon: Buy For The Dividend, Stay For The Growth [View article]
Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
As one commenter pointed out it does help alleviate a bit of pricing pressure as the yen manufacturers can lighten up a bit. I need to find out if they GLW are just under hedged or if it is slippage. Hopefully, they will talk about it this morning..cheers
Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
Exelon: Buy For The Dividend, Stay For The Growth [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
We were ultimately vindicated but I still see this company having cash flow issue in '13/'14 but will have to update my analysis...
I don't really see any fundamental analysis in this article...it all seems to be predicated on your belief that electricity prices are going higher but I am not sure the forwards agree with you...
I believe they should have a higher dividend than the basket, like 4.5% say, meaning we are fully priced here IMHO
Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
a) More than 2/3 of the 50k claims are back by insurance - but, as you might imagine, the insurers are balking a bit.
b) GLW only owns 50% of PCC
c) The recent BK plan, including asbestos settlement, was approved by more than 99% of asbestos creditors
d) The plan would put GLW on the hook for ~$300mn over six years, which I believe is properly reserved for
e) The plan was "rejected" by the court but the court "..rejected some objections to the Amended PCC Plan and made suggestions regarding modifications to the Amended PCC Plan that would allow the Plan to be confirmed"
I am not a lawyer, but it sounds like they are almost there. Here is the recent court decision from 2011:
http://bit.ly/11RbVTq
Please don't yell "fire" at tomorrow's meeting
Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
I agree that buybacks are a big factor as witnessed by my discussion on distributable cash flow yield, which is what investors should focus on
We tend to be very conservative in our projections and, if the story still passes our IRR hurdle, then we buy. If not, pass. If it turns out your conjectures on demand are better than ours, we will both be happy.
Lastly, why do you suggest I am comparing INTC to GLW?
Barrick Gold Through The Lens Of A Discounted Cash Flow Model [View article]