Seeking Alpha

Douglas E. Johnston

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Douglas E. Johnston's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    I think Oaktree reduced their position in Jan but check me on that....

    Many investors have used your primary reason for owning XCO and are quite unhappy with the results. In fact, Wilbur himself lamented on CNBC not long ago that he got into nat gas way too early. I honestly think he was hoodwinked a bit by Mr Miller, which is why he quickly got canned once the true details of the KKR deal were unveiled and wilbur et. al. are now trying to salvage their investment. So far, there is nothing in XCO's public statements that suggest this is going to be a big win.

    Do you have any information as to how XCO's properties will get connected to Wilbur's LNG ventures?

    As for IRE, there a quite a few investments that bought during the depths of the financial crisis, have done quite well.

    you might do okay with your average price...we'll see...good luck
    Mar 1 05:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calumet Specialty Products: No Fuel For Growth [View article]
    @frdmhr - no...if anything, last Q was much worse than I expected (i though coverage was going to improve to 50% or so given the significant move in crack spreads etc.....i am not nearly as sanguine as some other authors on the distribution coverage for 2014 or 2015. I think 2014 could see a low 50% type number and I believe they definitely will have to do multiple secondary's to not only raise cash to pay distribution and spending but also to reduce leverage...Their fixed coverage is low and too close to their covenant breech level....all this points to risk which the common unit holders ultimately bear...if things get really bad, the GP comes in with a capital infusion and they get the reward....i think we make new lows
    Mar 1 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enduro Royalty Trust Pays Solid 10% Distiribution [View article]
    What say ye on this month's Feb lower prod and distribution?
    Feb 28 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: An Explosive Growth Story That Is Set To Sail [View article]
    so Rob -> TK's balance sheet is 100% consolidated even thought it only owns ~25% economic interest in TNK so one really needs to dissect it to determine TK's BV....and as i mentioned, they also have the two other "daughters"....finally, i believe details on the drop down will be given next Qs call...my rough calculation is that the sale of the VLCCs would finance the drip easily.....hope that helps
    Feb 28 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: An Explosive Growth Story That Is Set To Sail [View article]
    explosive growth I referred to was growth in ebitda, free cash flow and net income, and presumably share price, which I see doubling this year and up another 66% in 2015. so not explosive growth in their fleet until late 2015 when i see net debt/ebitda at a level where credit line can be increased and potential issuance....two years ago was not a good time to invest in this sector....gl
    Feb 27 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe PetroLogistics' Share Price Will Fall [View article]
    Grizzly appears to have gone into hibernation...

    the propane hedges are not part of PDH - they are part of a separate sub owned just by the original owners...so any hedge p/l would not affect PDH
    Feb 27 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calumet Specialty Products Partners Earnings Analysis - Is The Distribution Safe? [View article]
    five articles just yesterday! impressive!
    Feb 27 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: An Explosive Growth Story That Is Set To Sail [View article]
    Even in run-off mode, TNK shares would offer significant value according to our calculations. Liquidity is ~175mn and, yes, as I stated in the article, I expect ~50mn in debt reduction this year (~21mn required). I would not expect them to go on a spending spree.

    I am not sure selling the VLCCs is such a good idea right now given prices are still fairly benign - it might pay to be patient a bit.

    Let's see if TNK overpays for commercial management business - you believe it is a fact beforehand.

    TIL is not buying ships from TNK - they are buying 4 suez (out of 8 vessels) from TK. The investors are Norwegian institutions and "TIL" will list on Oslo in March '14. Why do you think they are and will buy TNK's ships? Eventually, if TIL performs well, and with TNK owning 10% + warrants, it would be a nice payout hopefully.

    I am not sure what TNK could have done - issuing equity at today's level was not really palatable and they don't have the size to bargain. So an equity investment with partner is the closest thing....if the TCEs behave as I suspect, they should have another $25mn and $50mn to invest in '14/'15 (after ~125mn in debt paydowns)...lets see
    Feb 27 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: An Explosive Growth Story That Is Set To Sail [View article]
    TK is the parent of TNK, TGP, and TOO with varied interest. TK has a 25% equity interest in TNK. I believe that TK reports on a consolidated basis but need to confirm. Clearly, like any mother-daughter relationship (e.g., MLP type structures) one has to be sure drop downs are fairly valued. Looking back, the drops of tankers into TNK might be considered fortuitous for TK shareholders given they were financed with share issuance at $12/share, with TK retaining an interest. However, at the time, that was the reasonable value for the vessels. Of course, that price dropped considerably. I do not have any specifics on the current buz transaction at the moment other than TNK did pay nearly 5mn in fees to TK for commercially managing their 28 ships....using back of the envelop, the transaction can result in 15mn or so to TNK along with some for "technical management fees", call it 20-25mn all in...so the multiple that gets paid for that will be the key....

    TKs rebound has much to do with its exposure to the LNG market I believe.
    Feb 27 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: An Explosive Growth Story That Is Set To Sail [View article]
    TK is exposed to the "red-hot" LNG sector as well as offshore storage and shuttles
    Feb 27 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Calumet Specialty Products Be Forced Into A Dividend Cut? [View article]
    this feels a bit pointless, to be honest
    Feb 26 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: An Explosive Growth Story That Is Set To Sail [View article]
    thanks
    Feb 26 04:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: An Explosive Growth Story That Is Set To Sail [View article]
    thanks...i have to imagine, with VLCCs north of 40k per a week ago, they have to be happy. Ultimately, they will sell them I think as they are more of a mid-size operator, possibly into the JV they already have set up or into the new PE (TIL) and get back all interest/cost/prin....so worked out.....interesting they did not discuss the LR2s they had on order with the BK shipbuilder but I suspect that is going by the wayside as they put the $25mn into TIL....
    Feb 26 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: An Explosive Growth Story That Is Set To Sail [View article]
    i admit that it depends on the recovery in the tanker market playing out...signs are good...i think of this as a call option on continued economic recovery as the chart 2 highlights....(i have some shorts on too, some of which have been pains)
    Feb 26 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calumet Specialty Products Partners Earnings Analysis - Is The Distribution Safe? [View article]
    Adam - you've done a lot of work on the last two articles for CLMT - in fact, you've written quite a few congrats - but, i have to say, I was surprised to see that you are not long...are you waiting for a better entry level or just don't have any equity risk on at the moment?
    Feb 26 02:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,527 Comments
961 Likes