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Douglas E. Johnston

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  • Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
    Can u provide me with a reference on your comment on gorilla glass? That HP and many others have already replaced gorilla?
    Feb 7 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
    i try to net out one-offs, like they had a one-off settlement in their favor of $324mn in 2010 and an impairment of $130 in 2011, the delta is about 30c a share. Also, starting in mid-2011 is when all the issues in Hemlock began to start. That said, it has been an environment of declining margin and dividend coverage over the last year and half - from pretty lofty levels. For ex, in '10 they generated $3.6bn in free cash flow up 44% from '09 and only paid out $313mn in divs with no buybacks. So i think 2010 was a bit of a rebound from recession. That said, it is pretty much a call on whether they can stabilize margins and then resume growth. In the meantime, divs are pretty well covered
    Feb 7 01:18 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
    Its hard for me to judge the impact of the asbestos liability other than what the company comments on in their 10k, inc reserves taken and PCC being a seperate corporate entity (BK). An I have no idea how to compare to a different lawsuit on toxic breast implants - sorry....

    As for (2) I mention in the article is will have a big impact in Q1, 9c/share
    Feb 7 01:12 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
    I think I was pretty clear that the immediate future (i.e., Q1 and maybe Q2) are not particularly bright for Corning. It is for a long-term investor. If you have a company that has been as punished as GLW and has it's balance sheet, cash flow, and an 8% distributable cash flow yield, I would love to hear about it. Otherwise, I see oportunity cost near 0, at least that is where my money-market is....thanks in advance
    Feb 7 07:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold Through The Lens Of A Discounted Cash Flow Model [View article]
    U say its worth $47 today but give it a rating of 3 out of 10? Something seems amiss....
    Feb 6 08:20 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
    Thanks....yes, that would be a big deal with big-data centers, which are growing big time...glty
    Feb 6 03:41 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
    succinctly said!
    Feb 6 03:37 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning: A Glass Definitely Half Full [View article]
    Thanks...imo, i'd be hard pressed to see below $10 (macro environment aside)...i looked at selling some puts in April, but the vol is too cheap in my opinion, which I guess validates the thought...good luck
    Feb 6 03:37 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Investment Strategies For Corning In Early 2013 [View article]
    the article was not terribly informative imho
    Feb 5 08:19 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources - Wilbur Ross, Howard Marks All In On This Beaten-Up Stock [View article]
    their stake in TGGT, the midstream, is maybe 500mn - they wanted to sell it recently but I suspect the offers were not that good.
    Feb 5 08:18 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Dividend Stocks That Have Raised Payouts By At Least 8% A Year For The Last 5 Years [View article]
    Thanks for the interesting article. I don't know about the other two but GLW looks pretty compelling. The one negative is that it appears, based on their guidance and $/Yen xchange rate, Q1 will likely be a bad quarter, down 8-10c per share. Even so the coverage ratio and prospects are excellent and we need to look beyond the trough. That said, with weak Q1 there could be v.g. entry points coming....
    Feb 5 10:34 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Investment Strategies For Corning In Early 2013 [View article]
    Q1 will be ugly or to keep with the agriculture theme, manure
    Feb 5 10:24 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Corning Be Cool Again And Break Out Of Its Range? [View article]
    The Yen averaged about 81 last quarter and using recent data and CME futures, it is priced for a 92 average for Q1 or up 13.x% - so lets say 15% for safety. GLW said that they have an 8m/% exposure so $120mn or roughly 8c/share....will make Q1 look even worse - remember seasonality (e.g., gorilla down 30% seq.). Now maybe they hedged more? In fact, looking at $/Y price action, it looks like a stop-out hedge program - shud find out this friday. But, I am leaving some powder dry as the street will complain about Q1 and overall market is a bit frothy....glty
    Feb 5 08:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Corning Be Cool Again And Break Out Of Its Range? [View article]
    Agree, this could be big for big-data centers...and you have willow glass..but the key will be hybrid notebooks (e.g., ultra) which, IMO, is going to shift the space to phablets and tabbooks....later this year....
    Feb 5 08:47 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources - Wilbur Ross, Howard Marks All In On This Beaten-Up Stock [View article]
    If they can make a decent (legal) argument that they are offering a fair price based on current market conditions, then that is all that is needed. I've looked at their 2011 investor presentation, which they went through the value of their assets, and adjusted to today - both in terms of less assets and different NG assumptions, I get a $12 price would be reasonable, $8 would be a low-ball, minimum offer that might sneak by, anything less would probably invite lawsuits....unfortunat... with the big guys (inc Ares who has been around awhile), they have majority and the board so not much little shareholders can do....
    Feb 5 08:44 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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