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Douglas E. Johnston  

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  • Will EV Energy Partners Soon Catch Up On Its Distributable Cash Flow Shortfall? [View article]
    looks like n. utica took another blow with BP dumping Trumbell co. acres they bot a few years back for 4.5k or so....i am really surprised they don't find a JV partner for drilling in some of their better spots, like Carrol co. - I am guessing the infrastructure is booked with CHK/TOT ...

    without sales, another secondary is a decent bet given their capital spend needs....that said DCF coverage is getting better...
    May 2, 2014. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust I: A Gamble, Not An Investment [View article]
    just buy SD then - why would u take the risk on SDT's wells?
    May 2, 2014. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp.: Improved Potash Prices And Dividend Growth To Drive Upside [View article]
    "What gives ???"

    Expectations
    May 1, 2014. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust I: A Gamble, Not An Investment [View article]
    Good stuff as usual....one thing to consider is the cost to short, or the special rate to borrow securities if u can....and the option of being called in....still it would be hard to justify the price
    Apr 30, 2014. 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hologic, Inc. beats by $0.04, beats on revenue [View news story]
    We own it and like it. Worth min $25 today but see a double over next two years.
    Apr 30, 2014. 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continued Operating Weakness, Macro Risks, And Premium Valuation Make Caterpillar A Sell [View article]
    all you have to know is they bot $1.7bn worth of shares in the market Q1 and have authorized for another $10bn. The fact that a lot is being financed with debt (effectively) and sopping up executive options does not seem to matter. If the music stops, it will get ugly, but until then they just keep on dancing....that reminds me of something I heard before..hmmm
    Apr 30, 2014. 10:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: Oil Volumes Disappoint [View article]
    @FA - yes - looks like they had a back up of completed but not on line maybe due to weather so this quarter (Mar thru May) should see maybe 15-16 wells come on line
    Apr 30, 2014. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust I: From Weak To Worse [View article]
    check again...Cramer is bulled up on SD...world of difference
    Apr 28, 2014. 03:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust I: From Weak To Worse [View article]
    @Pablo - the other thing to consider is that SD, once drilling is complete, can "make" the trust sell some of the Royalty Interests (at "fair value") so that SD can sell properties unencumbered. There is a limit per annum (5mn i think) but still another option that SDR trust holders are short....
    Apr 28, 2014. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: Oil Volumes Disappoint [View article]
    Anyone who tries to compare a mature E&P company, like Whiting Petroleum e.g., that has near 4,000 producing wells and prospective acreage, to SDR with 273 wells that have been shown to be poor and no more locations using a metric like EV to current b/d production is ....
    Apr 28, 2014. 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: Oil Volumes Disappoint [View article]
    @FA - just a note they have four months to finish up the drilling of 17.4 wells. They've been averaging 11 and change per quarter during bad weather so I suspect they will be done by June 30. Will give a bit of a boost reducing declines to ~5% for next two Qs according to my calcs but then comes the drops 15%+ per
    Apr 28, 2014. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: Oil Volumes Disappoint [View article]
    @user - that would be rather severe. I think it is hard to use PERs #s exactly because there is the decline curve in there too. I (re)fit SDR's well results and see maybe a 2% hit due to weather. There should be a rebound in wells coming on line too making next Q more like a 4-5% decline.
    Apr 28, 2014. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KKR Financial: KKR Should Pay More For Us [View article]
    txu should be fairly clean and the senior debt is near 100% covered with assets. The only thing to work out is some tax issues. Its the other side that is quite complicated. Given this has been going on for quite some time (its no lehman or enron), i suspect TXU will be done within a year
    Apr 28, 2014. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: Oil Volumes Disappoint [View article]
    @josh - certainly one could sue, if you can prove, but I do not believe it is illegal as in criminal. But, showing bad numbers would be a crime.....but I am not a lawyer so who knows....my point - or my opinion - is I really do not believe anything insidious is going on. I just think the wells stink. Really stink.
    Apr 25, 2014. 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: Oil Volumes Disappoint [View article]
    According to the very basic "oilman", he will pay 150k per b/d using last quarter's production numbers. Apparently, his price depends not on the future, only on last quarter. This is about 8.34 a share after the dividend. This "analysis" assumes that the price per share will decline at the same rate as production. Even if we hold today's distribution constant over the next four quarters (NOT!), then this implies that production must decline by less than 27% over the whole of next year. Given SDT's numbers, which as Richard showed have been down 20+% each quarter, it is hard to believe that SDR's wells are suddenly going to behave miraculously especially as drilling ends soon. More likely, production will be down 40% by 1Q15 and the "oilman" will be back saying he's waving them in at $5/share.
    Apr 25, 2014. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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