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Douglas E. Johnston

 
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  • A Closer Look At El Paso Pipeline Partners' Distributable Cash Flow As Of Q4 2013 [View article]
    good article as usual Ron--- i suspect DCF coverage will remain above 1 with the help of the dropdowns. Overall share count is likely to increase - i see 20-25mn shares issued to public to fund drop downs and LNG capex (with KMI taking an equal amount)...and with that we should see DCF grow to $650 -- so coverage will be about $2.7/shr (on average shares) and debt gets up to 4.9bn (3.8x leverage).....but in the end all of '14/'15s distributions need to be reinvested ....agree wouldn't sell, maybe nibble but should have opportunity to add during SPO process(es) over next year or two....
    Mar 3 01:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    thanks chris and always good to hear from you....yes, stock may actually bounce on a div cut.......i agree for the most part although XCO really needs to see the back of the NG curve get a lift...mid 2015 contracts are still ~4 and 2014 they have hedges in place, including short calls...i like the NG idea just seems like XCO is a risky way to play it....i am concerned about their ability to hold the Marcellus acreage as well as to its ultimate viability given disparate acreage....i do think they have a nice spot in the Haynesville but we need to see sustained hedgable 5-6 NG for that to work...ttys
    Mar 2 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    I used the strip curve with a bit higher oil price on the tail ~85
    Mar 2 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    @gamcap - thanks...we too own some NG exposure both outright in the futures market and with some other names....we also own some utilities that should benefit as well
    Mar 2 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calumet Specialty Products: No Fuel For Growth [View article]
    yes---looks like they are back up to 50c....i have them slated for 25-27mn in cost this year but could be higher
    Mar 2 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    @gamcap can u elucidate on "XCO will be well positioned once the LNG exports begin in 2015"....my understanding is that exports aren't going to really ramp up till later in the decade and the price impact is not huge given costs etc

    http://cnb.cx/1cveADH

    Also, does XCO have all the parts in place to actually export?
    Mar 2 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    thanks...i knew I needed checking on Oaktree....I think the transports are going to do quite well on LNG and I think WR will do fine there. In fact, he might be looking at XCO as a cheap dependable source for what he wants to ship....so far the futures market is not pricing in any significant price impact due to exports.

    take a look at EVEP and I still own PDH and am looking at EPB....
    Mar 2 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    1) thanks for the nod

    2) I have to check that covenant but it does sound like something I read on that secured term loan to Invesco....

    3) The reason I say an equity infusion is not to be ruled out is because, while they will get a new credit line secured by KKR-deal PDP wells that XCO is buying, their net debt to ebitda will be moving back towards the high 3s. If they want to get their balance sheet in solid shape and begin looking to grow (let's say they want to develop Marcellus), vs buying PV-10, there will be a need for capital.

    4) Are you talking about the buyout back in '10 or '11? Much has changed since then including reserves, the value of those reserves etc. A note, XCO took a lot of writedowns as NG price decline but no writeups have occurred recently. Also, of note, is that a lot of Marcellus acreage is not HBP. They stated on their recent report that PV-10 using the strip curve was $1.6bn...there is not a lot of shareholder equity at the moment
    Mar 2 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    if that is your only comment on my article, I take it you agree with my general premise
    Mar 2 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    I believe I know Exco pretty well. I never said that I knew them better than the names you mentioned. And as I mentioned, I own the bonds. As for your portfolio. I looked at it Ron and am unimpressed. You own both BRK and Fairhome so you are charging your clients fees on top of fees and many of your individual names are the same ones owned by those two in decent size. I don't see any original thought. It is hard understand the value you are adding.
    Mar 2 09:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    I think Oaktree reduced their position in Jan but check me on that....

    Many investors have used your primary reason for owning XCO and are quite unhappy with the results. In fact, Wilbur himself lamented on CNBC not long ago that he got into nat gas way too early. I honestly think he was hoodwinked a bit by Mr Miller, which is why he quickly got canned once the true details of the KKR deal were unveiled and wilbur et. al. are now trying to salvage their investment. So far, there is nothing in XCO's public statements that suggest this is going to be a big win.

    Do you have any information as to how XCO's properties will get connected to Wilbur's LNG ventures?

    As for IRE, there a quite a few investments that bought during the depths of the financial crisis, have done quite well.

    you might do okay with your average price...we'll see...good luck
    Mar 1 05:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calumet Specialty Products: No Fuel For Growth [View article]
    @frdmhr - no...if anything, last Q was much worse than I expected (i though coverage was going to improve to 50% or so given the significant move in crack spreads etc.....i am not nearly as sanguine as some other authors on the distribution coverage for 2014 or 2015. I think 2014 could see a low 50% type number and I believe they definitely will have to do multiple secondary's to not only raise cash to pay distribution and spending but also to reduce leverage...Their fixed coverage is low and too close to their covenant breech level....all this points to risk which the common unit holders ultimately bear...if things get really bad, the GP comes in with a capital infusion and they get the reward....i think we make new lows
    Mar 1 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enduro Royalty Trust Pays Solid 10% Distiribution [View article]
    What say ye on this month's Feb lower prod and distribution?
    Feb 28 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: An Explosive Growth Story That Is Set To Sail [View article]
    so Rob -> TK's balance sheet is 100% consolidated even thought it only owns ~25% economic interest in TNK so one really needs to dissect it to determine TK's BV....and as i mentioned, they also have the two other "daughters"....finally, i believe details on the drop down will be given next Qs call...my rough calculation is that the sale of the VLCCs would finance the drip easily.....hope that helps
    Feb 28 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: An Explosive Growth Story That Is Set To Sail [View article]
    explosive growth I referred to was growth in ebitda, free cash flow and net income, and presumably share price, which I see doubling this year and up another 66% in 2015. so not explosive growth in their fleet until late 2015 when i see net debt/ebitda at a level where credit line can be increased and potential issuance....two years ago was not a good time to invest in this sector....gl
    Feb 27 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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