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Douglas E. Johnston

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  • EXCO Resources: Why We Are No Longer Bulls [View article]
    justy - i too have followed XCO for some time and i think the list of reasons the stock is down here is a bit longer than you surmise. For example, may i remind you of their past conference call discussions about their Marcellus acreage vs what they have stated recently. It seems those 300k or so are worth a lot less than originally touted. Also, listen to the previous call where there was discussion about equity infusion and Doug Miller stated that those same investors you mention are itchin to get a private placement.
    Nov 14 04:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enduro Royalty Trust Is A Good Investment [View article]
    well i thought i might have missed something in the filings regarding probable or possible reserves (P2/3).....i consider any prove-ups as options that, if i can buy for free, great. o.w., I am looking for a decent risk-adjusted return - for royts, i think 10% using conservative NPV calcs is a decent start...but thats just me....

    can u give me an example of a trust that has had reserve write-ups and low declines...so far, what I have seen, has been less than impressive
    Nov 14 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enduro Royalty Trust Is A Good Investment [View article]
    you state

    "The number of wells will continue to rise over the next few years and production numbers will increase. As the earlier wells begin to reduce their production over the years the follow on wells will produce."

    is there data to support that statement? Looking at there reserve report, there is a miniscule amount of proved developed non-producing (i.e., potential wells)....proved undeveloped actually has -tive PV albeit small


    as for why Enduro selling there stake was a positive, you state:

    "The sale was more beneficial to the company to pay off debt for the long term quality of the trust and the unit holders. The cost of the debt would have been at a higher cost later, and the company now allows more unit holders to reap the profits of the trust."

    you lost me there.....
    Nov 14 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calumet Specialty Products: Cheap Shares, 10% Dividend Yield, Downside Risk Remains Minimal [View article]
    would you mind fleshing out your operating cash flow forecast for 2014? sales, cost of sales, rins, op expense....it looks like you are forecasting a 27% increase from 2012 (let's ignore 2013 at 100mn) # of 286mn when crack spreads were at all time wides....thanks
    Nov 14 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enduro Royalty Trust: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    qn- is he talking about the 2 drilled in Q1 that was supposed to uplift in Feb (not the 2 being drilled now due in 1Q14)? He's expecting it to be shutin till 2Q14? If I use 4 new wells coming on line nxt year vs 2, get an extra 20c on PV....i can get to today's price at PV-7 w 97$ oil......

    any way to know if there are other wells to be drilled? Reading thru recent filing, everything is proved develop and producing ... i gather these last wells clean up the non-produc.....i know there is possibility for reworks, infills....but don't really want to count on that
    Nov 14 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enduro Royalty Trust: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    u can trade dec 16s at 84, 1,200 vol; 36kOI...not sure your size but enuf liquidity there for 100 lots (100k barrels) per day....also, big players can get swaps from dealers 10-years out but I have no pricing on that

    at 100-84 = 16*1000 per contract, 100 contracts would get u 1.6mn.....is that what u were looking for?
    Nov 14 03:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KKR Financial Holdings: 20% Upside For 2014 [View article]
    I am looking for 10% return on newly deployed assets, lower growth. It would be a concern if shares were priced in the low teens and were looking for 1.5+ in earnings. given where we are now, the hurdle is low.

    what are your thoughts?
    Nov 14 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enduro Royalty Trust: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    Here are the #s I have for their prod since start of year thru July (last dist) vs what they stated in the prez on page 6. Its been quite a few months of lower than proj. production. In fact, seems we are riding the Base curve w/no uplift....would be good to know if shutins are causing this...if u find out let us know....o.w. seems like wells are declining faster than marketed (which would not surprise me)...thanks

    Actual Pred Delta %
    2,472 2500 -28 -1.13%
    2,458 2475 -17 -0.70%
    2,449 2550 -101 -3.96%
    2,378 2575 -197 -7.67%
    2,382 2580 -198 -7.66%
    2,360 2585 -225 -8.72%
    2,399 2590 -191 -7.36%
    Nov 14 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enduro Royalty Trust: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    Great work...like u i see PV-10 much lower than current stock price - PV-10 like 8.2...if u want to ignore the futures curve and permian differentials to wti, and go with $95 flat, then its worth maybe $9.5 on a PV-10 basis.....i do not believe the decline in the futures curve should be ignored totally given the estimates for domestic oil production and lowering consumption (unless we start to export)
    Nov 14 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enduro Royalty Trust: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    According to the presentation, daily production should have been about 2570 bbls/d or 233870 for the 3month period (April-June), that is applicable to the last 3-months of sales. But looking at their sales numbers, it was only 215968, or looking at the recent filing 221096 (there is a month slide in there)...but either way it would seem production is more like 2,400 bbls/day or about a 5% miss from their projections back in Feb.....why aren't they getting the uplift production that they forecasted?
    Nov 14 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enduro Royalty Trust: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    the author utilizes the futures market - a liquid trading observable - vs a forecast. Why should he rely on a forecast of a bureaucrats instead of the market? One may find fault with the fact that distant WTI oil contracts are priced at 80 but then go buy them. I only wish I could short the eia forecast and earn the arb! Why take the risk on wells whose decline curve tail and EUR we know nothing about.

    The reason NDRO showed an increase was because 2 new wells come on line....had nothing to do with old wells being spruced....so far the shale revolution has left some wounded soldiers...

    so why did enduro, the parent, controlled by Carlyle, sell a bunch of shares? to pay down a low interest credit line....hmmm
    Nov 14 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: Why We Are No Longer Bulls [View article]
    and from what I see,they paid a pretty price tag ~23k/acre, for that core area 1.....
    Nov 14 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KKR Financial Holdings: 20% Upside For 2014 [View article]
    yes, that doesn't hurt unless he sells...
    Nov 13 07:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: Why We Are No Longer Bulls [View article]
    i sold out of more than half my position north of 98 b 4 earnings post KKR. I've swing traded them (i know they are bonds) from 11 down to 7% last year. They are trading ~95/8.5% yield now, where i bot during last swing so I am flat on my remaining risk. Im holding (my nose) for now although I see recovery is somewhere in the 50-60c range in worst case. They are '18s and probably need to get rolled over when due (note the secured term will get paid off b 4 if they don't refi it in March)....I am not adding, probably give it thought if we were to push back over 10%
    Nov 13 07:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: Third Quarter Results Down, Units Oversold [View article]
    yes - i have them running at 5/month to finish in 2q14. So they are motivated to keep the CU dist in the 50s to divest....
    Nov 13 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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