Seeking Alpha

Douglas E. Johnston

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Douglas E. Johnston's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • PotashCorp Prices Offering of US $750 Million of 10-Year Notes [View article]
    its amazing. 10 year debt for only 3.625% refi'ing 5.25%...and its probably callable to boot..... another $8mn saved....god bless the Fed
    Mar 5, 2014. 08:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    @glf4mny: yes mla99 answered your question. A bit of a nasty dig on my part but I found his (RonB's) comment arrogant and chiding. It got the better of me
    Mar 5, 2014. 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    @builder - i agree that it is all in the eye of the beholder. One note is that with NG at 4.5, they basically break even on their proved reserves but really need to see it sustained above 5+ for their unproven reserves to be even considered.
    Mar 5, 2014. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers: An Explosive Growth Story That Is Set To Sail [View article]
    @dave - yes. I think you are confusing TNK with another company. But sounds interesting!
    Mar 5, 2014. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    @justy - i looked at the reserves and I don't see the $2bn in unrecognized asset value given where the natural gas strip curve is. At today's prices, i find it hard to get much for undeveloped and unproved reserves given their costs ~2.70ish (inc iinterest, G&A, etc.) and the finding costs of 1.70 per.....I would agree with you that if the tail for the futures curve was averaging more like $5, then there would be value in those contingency reserves - its worth going back to their July 2010 and 2011 presentations to see what they valued it back then against the price deck they used. The other issue is out of their stated 11tcfe of unproven, back then, how much can one expect to still be there in a few years? If it turns out that the NG strip curve is wrong (a negative risk-premium built in), then things will be brighter....
    Mar 4, 2014. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    @dirk - are all 3 on the board (s/k)? and do you think they received different information than was originally disseminated to the public?

    and, yes, you are most welcome to write an article...it would certainly be interesting to hear your views...
    Mar 4, 2014. 08:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    There is nothing wrong with such macro thinking and long-term thought process. But behind that needs to be analysis. For example, what is a reasonable price for North America NG once exports begin? Obviously, there are costs to transport, etc. . What are the other sources for natural gas? For example, China (& mideast) has plenty of shale gas, they just need to replicate our success, which they have been able to do quite readily it seems in other areas. What will be the price impact of those other sources - e.g., once Russia has competition, would there price stay the same? And what would be the impact on production here? Lastly, one has to ask oneself, why isn't the market today reflecting a natural gas price increase? Unless one can seriously answer those questions, they risk being the fool at the poker table.

    and then ultimately, one has to decide what is the best way to play it
    Mar 4, 2014. 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At El Paso Pipeline Partners' Distributable Cash Flow As Of Q4 2013 [View article]
    i suspect KMI will take equity for dropdowns (maybe 100%?) and that way IDRs as a % of total distribution declines...its good to be the king!
    Mar 3, 2014. 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect's Growth Hides Bad Underwriting [View article]
    I have to admit that I had a good laugh when I read your interesting article and then, at the end:

    "I express no opinion on what current Prospect shareholders should do with their shares."
    Mar 3, 2014. 05:22 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    that was our thinking when we bought the bonds which, originally, was much higher in yield. We are at a fairly small position now. I think the basic idea still holds although they recently issued a secured loan and they are likely to secure up the KKR properties when its time to pay, subordinating the bonds a bit more.
    Mar 3, 2014. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Day, Another Major Shale Discovery [View article]
    You aren't seriously stating that because Americans view climate change last as a priority that it isn't serious?

    And you statement that "fighting climate change is a luxury item" is patently ludicrous
    Mar 3, 2014. 01:11 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At El Paso Pipeline Partners' Distributable Cash Flow As Of Q4 2013 [View article]
    good article as usual Ron--- i suspect DCF coverage will remain above 1 with the help of the dropdowns. Overall share count is likely to increase - i see 20-25mn shares issued to public to fund drop downs and LNG capex (with KMI taking an equal amount)...and with that we should see DCF grow to $650 -- so coverage will be about $2.7/shr (on average shares) and debt gets up to 4.9bn (3.8x leverage).....but in the end all of '14/'15s distributions need to be reinvested ....agree wouldn't sell, maybe nibble but should have opportunity to add during SPO process(es) over next year or two....
    Mar 3, 2014. 01:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    thanks chris and always good to hear from you....yes, stock may actually bounce on a div cut.......i agree for the most part although XCO really needs to see the back of the NG curve get a lift...mid 2015 contracts are still ~4 and 2014 they have hedges in place, including short calls...i like the NG idea just seems like XCO is a risky way to play it....i am concerned about their ability to hold the Marcellus acreage as well as to its ultimate viability given disparate acreage....i do think they have a nice spot in the Haynesville but we need to see sustained hedgable 5-6 NG for that to work...ttys
    Mar 2, 2014. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    I used the strip curve with a bit higher oil price on the tail ~85
    Mar 2, 2014. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    @gamcap - thanks...we too own some NG exposure both outright in the futures market and with some other names....we also own some utilities that should benefit as well
    Mar 2, 2014. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,743 Comments
1,076 Likes