The True All-In Cost To Mine Gold: Complete 2012 Figures [View article]
i concur. For ABX, 1350 gold equates to operating cf = maint capex. that said, not sure gold miners can react that quick to make a price turnaround. Look at NG producers last year and they were able to kill rigs quickly - not the same potential here to slow down production...and there are little in the way of hedges.
Should You Avoid Buying Barrick Gold? [View article]
The issue I have is I do not have a target for gold prices. So what appeared to be fair value of 25, gold was at 1,600. Now at 1,375 it is much lower - $10-15 - since w/o an asset sale of significant size, the dividend will have to be reduced/cut after Q1 and the dividend increases that were suppose to accompany PL/PV will be delayed until 2016/17. I think at this price level what I am looking for is management to provide realistic guidance on how they are going to navigate through the next difficult two years. I am deeply concerned about the lack of hedges, risk-mgt, and lack of action. In effect, I am waiting for a "reorg" announcement with a (probably fire-sale) asset sale, div cut, capital issuance, and (i hate to say it) some hedging. Then I will "know" it is safe to buy, which I believe you will have ample time to do. Good luck.
PS -> I think 8% of any one name is too large. 2-3% is my limit.
Should You Avoid Buying Barrick Gold? [View article]
KR1527 - that is a rather bold comment given it is your first on SA. Usually one ramps up to such cognitive notions as: "You must be crazy not to buy" and "gold will likely rise over $2000"
But what happens if gold were to go to $1,200 ?
It appears the street is deserting ABX in droves, which usually means we are a decent amount thru the correction, 80% or so but i would not try catching this knife
thanks for the article. - would u mind elaborating on what your "scenarios" are for PER valuation? Based on 10-k (e.g., 1.35bn in undiscounted CFs) it would appear that distributions are going to miss the target by a decent margin....
Cliff Natural Resources: We Prefer The Common Shares [View article]
i agree. I am still wrestling with the fundamentals but thought this was interesting. The bonds trade pretty well, which surprised me, with all the negativity around the name. I've heard quite a few promo's about the preferred so thought this was due attention.
Barrick Gold And The Pascua-Lama Disaster [View article]
I've never espoused that "theme" - merely that PL, like any mine, is risky but, in this case, much of ABX future and pps depends on getting it on line in late '14....and they are very exposed to a declining gold price with significant gamma. I do not think you appreciate the put u are short. but, in the end, its just my opinion....
Barrick Gold And The Pascua-Lama Disaster [View article]
i believe pps is going to $20 or lower. I own puts but I do, on occasion, delta hedge like on a day like yesterday so I can play the game again. On eremmell's comments - i honestly do not care if anyone sells their shares. The price will reach equilibrium regardless of what anyone says....
EV Energy Partners: The Price Is Finally Right [View article]
it doesn't help. especially since its in Stark and Portage and EVEPs got a decent chunk (40k i think) in Stark. I don't know how desperate CHK is to sell but adds another cloud over this stock. It will lift someday. If you value the pieces conservatively -
$25 for existing production (12% yield) $5 ORRI $7.5 Midstream
Then you are talking $14 for their Utica position - if we assume that is discounted out a year then you are looking at a value of 4k/acre in a year's time. At $51, if your patient, I think think its a high probability return. The problem, as I see it, is the specs want immediate gratification (e.g., double the dist), which we are not going to get even with a sale, and the "funds" aren't going to touch it until the growth shows up. So its floating in no-mans land.
The True All-In Cost To Mine Gold: Complete 2012 Figures [View article]
The True All-In Cost To Mine Gold: Complete 2012 Figures [View article]
The miners are little hedged. e.g., ABX has none having paid up handsomely in '09 to lift their gold swaps and go naked ... tides out
SandRidge Permian Trust: A 10% Permanent Yielder? [View article]
The True All-In Cost To Mine Gold: Complete 2012 Figures [View article]
Should You Avoid Buying Barrick Gold? [View article]
PS -> I think 8% of any one name is too large. 2-3% is my limit.
Should You Avoid Buying Barrick Gold? [View article]
But what happens if gold were to go to $1,200 ?
It appears the street is deserting ABX in droves, which usually means we are a decent amount thru the correction, 80% or so but i would not try catching this knife
Barrick Gold: Strong Signs Of A Capitulation Buying Opportunity [View article]
3 Attractively Priced Big-Dividend Stocks [View article]
Barrick Gold And The Pascua-Lama Disaster [View article]
Cliff Natural Resources: We Prefer The Common Shares [View article]
Barrick Gold And The Pascua-Lama Disaster [View article]
EV Energy Partners: The Price Is Finally Right [View article]
Barrick Gold And The Pascua-Lama Disaster [View article]
Barrick Gold And The Pascua-Lama Disaster [View article]
EV Energy Partners: The Price Is Finally Right [View article]
$25 for existing production (12% yield)
$5 ORRI
$7.5 Midstream
Then you are talking $14 for their Utica position - if we assume that is discounted out a year then you are looking at a value of 4k/acre in a year's time. At $51, if your patient, I think think its a high probability return. The problem, as I see it, is the specs want immediate gratification (e.g., double the dist), which we are not going to get even with a sale, and the "funds" aren't going to touch it until the growth shows up. So its floating in no-mans land.