3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
Nipson: Many thanks for your comment. It surprises me as well that more "pros" do not look deeply into their investments. Part of the reason is investment style and a reliance on efficient markets. The majority of institutional dollars, for example, are deployed on a broader basis: sector, industry, index, county, region, technology. There aren't many stock pickers left. Even the "reversion to the mean" players do it with broad groups so no one company hurts them if it moves against them. There is no need, surprisingly, to delve too deeply in any companies if you have a macro view. Traders fall into the broad view category as well. They trade on momentum, reversion to the mean, relative strength, you name it. Most couldn't care less about accounting issues. David Einhorn, for example, started out managing ~$1M. Now he manages ~$8B. He does something not many money managers do - thorough research.
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
What you're saying is that additive manufacturing remains embryonic. I agree. I think one of the hurdles inhibiting rapid adoption in manufacturing is the nebulous and difficult-to-quantify nature of mass customization. Yes, a firm can more rapidly respond to changes in customer tastes and demand, but the benefits of this, like gaining maket share, are accrued over time. It's not as easy as realizing that instead of machining that product for $5, I can print it for $3. Considering the tough economic environment since 2008, it is no wonder that firms are hesitant to spend any money where the payback is not immediately apparent. This why the entrepreneur segment is so important. They don't have the legacy problem. This is where the bulk of the innovation will arise, in my view.
The other aspect of additive manufacturing that is problematic is the modest menu of printable materials. There is only ~100 choices. This pales in comparison to the ~20,000 manufacturable materials.
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
pca: I would love to query DDD management during its next earnings call. I won't be able to do it, though. There are two pools of listeners in earnings calls: the "listen and ask questions" group which are the analysts and the "listen only" group which are individuals like yours truly. The conference operator is instructed to parse the two groups when you call in. I have tried to get into the "ask questions" group several times with other companies, but to no avail. I will not misrepresent myself in order to get into the analysts group.
If you have listened to earnings calls, you know that they are heavily scripted. Management wants to announce good news, field a few softball questions and get out of there. They don't want to be challenged or embarrassed. If an analyst challenges them in a public forum, they would most certainly lose their access. This is job-threatening for the analyst. This is the reason for the poor quality of questions that I have heard. Go back and look at the questions DDD fielded in its last two calls. It's almost like the analysts are just going through the motions so they can update their reports.
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
davison: I was the one that had to read between the lines. I'll let the data speak for itself. I gleaned everything in the article from DDD's SEC submissions.
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
phlabber: That's because most cheerleaders/media pundits rarely take the time to fully research the nuts and bolts of a company. 3D printing/additive manufacturing is the "next big thing" de jour. Look closely at Gartner's hype cycle graph. It is spot on right. The market has over-reached. It always happens. It does not mean that the technology is bogus or that no printer manufacturers will grow to large cap status along with the industry. It merely means that the stocks have gotten ahead of themselves. When a strong secular tailwind is behind a group of stocks, up they go. DDD has capitalized on this by being a serial acquirer as a means to generate impressive growth numbers. It's pure synergy. Even if DDD implodes, a new management team could come in and possibly turn it around. The long term prospects of the technology remain bullish. Timing is everything. The probability is that all the companies associated with this technology are presently overvalued. I will certainly maintain my interest in the area. There should be much innovation in the future.
I'll give you an example of the hype phenomenon: nanotech. I am sure you remember how prominent this technology was in the media and investment community a few years ago. It was going to transform almost everything humans do. What do you hear now? Nothing. The market's chatter machine has moved on. There are great things happening in nanotech. Many of its potential benefits will be realized. It's just that we don't much about it any more. Can you name a large cap nanotech pure play?
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
My side is hurting after reading your question. The SEC's Investigative Division apparently does very little investigating. It's mostly staffed with freshly minted law school graduates who spend a good chunk of their time prospecting for jobs with hedge funds. Any alleged malfeasance literally has to bite them in the gluteus maximus to get their attention. And even then, only a small fraction are examined. So, no, I wouldn't count on the SEC awakening from its slumber.
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
Hans: Superb points. The real target for a low-priced 3D printer is most certainly the entrepreneur. Hopefully, one of the manufacturers will get the religion and offer a reasonable way for them to acquire a printer that has the performance specifications they desire. If this happens, there should be an enormous amount of subsequent innovation. This would jump start the professional 3D printer market.
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
The other aspect of additive manufacturing that is problematic is the modest menu of printable materials. There is only ~100 choices. This pales in comparison to the ~20,000 manufacturable materials.
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
If you have listened to earnings calls, you know that they are heavily scripted. Management wants to announce good news, field a few softball questions and get out of there. They don't want to be challenged or embarrassed. If an analyst challenges them in a public forum, they would most certainly lose their access. This is job-threatening for the analyst. This is the reason for the poor quality of questions that I have heard. Go back and look at the questions DDD fielded in its last two calls. It's almost like the analysts are just going through the motions so they can update their reports.
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
I'll give you an example of the hype phenomenon: nanotech. I am sure you remember how prominent this technology was in the media and investment community a few years ago. It was going to transform almost everything humans do. What do you hear now? Nothing. The market's chatter machine has moved on. There are great things happening in nanotech. Many of its potential benefits will be realized. It's just that we don't much about it any more. Can you name a large cap nanotech pure play?
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]
3D Systems: Has The Printer Jammed? [View article]