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Dr. Duru  

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  • Surprise At Negative U.K. Inflation Produces Buying Opportunity On The Pound [View article]
    SA published this a little late. Addendum is that the Thursday overnight economic reports provided the exact kind of bounce and surge that makes that "buy bad news" strategy so appealing to me. I am currently net long the British pound and decided not to sell into the rally just yet at the time of writing.
    May 21, 2015. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Season Slides Home Builders Back Into Neutral [View article]
    LOL. Yep! I should have finished this one at least a week ago. :)

    I will probably incorporate housing starts in with some other housing news. Those numbers were bang on. And once again shows the poor correlation between changes in the builder sentiment numbers and housing economic data - from month to month anyway.
    May 20, 2015. 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economists Increasingly Disagree With The Market On Fed's First Rate Hike [View article]
    They are trying to reassure markets that they are both serious about raising rates when the economy is strong AND that they are not going to raise them so fast to bust the fragile recovery.
    May 20, 2015. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economists Increasingly Disagree With The Market On Fed's First Rate Hike [View article]
    The caveat to that paper is that later on Bernanke as Fed chair did entertain models for a Fed role in identifying bubbles ahead of time. The housing bust was painful enough to actually make that possible. They never got anywhere with it of course. And to this day, the mantra of central banks is to claim they have little to do with bubbles. Another caveat: macro and now micro-prudential policies that are supposed to contain risks to financial stability from over-heated asset markets. It is a direct way of going after bubbles without saying prices are at Y and should be at X.
    May 20, 2015. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alternatives To Fortescue Metals' Nationalistic Fervor Over Iron Ore [View article]
    If the govt buys into goals like Fortescue's CEO, then an incremental royalty tax will be the way to go, but still not sure overall revenues for Australians will increase. You still have VALE ready to fill the gaps and others are coming in due time...not to mention Chinese mines which become viable again with higher prices....
    May 19, 2015. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alternatives To Fortescue Metals' Nationalistic Fervor Over Iron Ore [View article]
    I think the odds go up that fmg is going to zero, but it will be a long haul. They are working hard to survive even if their company's survival is sub-optimal in the bigger scheme. Now that the Aussie government is getting animated over this nationalism, fmg could ride the wave for a while. I also don't particularly like shorting single digit stocks or stocks that have already been beaten up really good.

    Overall, I still prefer pairs trades in this sector. I just closed out my BHP short into today's follow-through selling. Still have my remaining positions.
    May 19, 2015. 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economists Increasingly Disagree With The Market On Fed's First Rate Hike [View article]
    I will vote for a token increase in-line with market expectations. The Fed will be very loathe to surprise the market when it does raise rates. And just like the Bank of England, it will reassure everyone that the path upward is a gentle slope.

    Also, one correction - the Canadian dollar is the only major currency I am willing to stick with over the coming months against the U.S. dollar. I have written about and explained this position in previous posts. I was formerly firmly bearish on the Canadian dollar.

    Thanks for the feedback everyone.
    May 18, 2015. 08:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman cuts long-term oil price forecasts [View news story]
    Could you provide a reference? I didn't see that in the alst earnings conference call at least.
    May 18, 2015. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economists Increasingly Disagree With The Market On Fed's First Rate Hike [View article]
    Hmmm...I honestly have been pretty convinced of my technical assessment. But it is a stop level. So if you are right, I hope I am not still short!
    May 18, 2015. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To The Basics For The British Pound [View article]
    I agree. The pound is due for a pullback. I have an update that I hope gets published soon. I want to buy pullbacks in anticipation of bounces. I think the 1.60 to 1.62 or so range is the upper extent that can be expected from the British pound against the U.S. dollar in the near-term.
    May 18, 2015. 03:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Weakness In The Australian Dollar Is Likely Ending For Now [View article]
    Thx for reading. You are correct. The resistance on the way down to follow the terms of trade is largely a result of yield differentials. If sentiment was not currently changing in favor of the euro, the Aussie might be even stronger right now. I am not sure what will trigger the next leg down in the Aussie, but a lot of people have spun their wheels betting on the collapse of China these past 5 years or so! Note that sentiment is also turning in favor of iron ore. I can't imagine the Australian dollar weakening significantly as long as all this bullish and hopeful sentiment is spinning for a bottom in iron ore...or in hopes that the Australian government might act in favor of Australian billionaires to prop up the price.
    May 16, 2015. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pigs In China - A Longer-Term Reason To Like Corn [View article]
    I believe so. I am loooong overdue to write an update on CORN. The cyclical thesis for farmers to plant other crops in the face of price weakenss did not play out as expected. Now we have analysts expecting a severe cash crunch for farmers (see downgrade of Deere)
    May 16, 2015. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Weakness In The Australian Dollar Is Likely Ending For Now [View article]
    Sure has. Thanks. Time for the next projections though as even my stretch target has essentially been hit already. Stay tuned.
    May 14, 2015. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Houston Wavers But Texas Housing Still Benefits From Economic Resiliency [View article]
    Let's definitely agree to agree. :)

    The smaller regionals are my favorite of the pack. Extremely under-valued and under-appreciated. Lots of upside potential. I am behind on my coverage and looking forward to digging into CCS and LGIH results soon!
    May 13, 2015. 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To The Basics For The British Pound [View article]
    FYI to readers - this article was published after the Inflation Report. I hope to have an update on the British pound soon that incorporates those results along with the latest economic data (confirming more strength in the UK economy).
    May 13, 2015. 10:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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