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Dr. Duru

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  • Fade The Pros - Buy The Pound [View article]
    I like most of this. The main sticking point for me is the discussion of QE. QE did not stop the British pound from soaring most of this year against all currencies. Economic and future rate expectation proved much more important. Similarly for the dollar on QE3. THe dollar actually bottomed soon after that and has since never gone much lower than that.

    So, I am wondering whether the poor timing of large traders implies that they are using the British pound as a hedge on some other trades?
    Oct 18 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For A 'Texas Hedge'? [View article]
    I also prefer options on this kind of trade. A nice automatic cap on losses no matter what happens.
    Oct 16 04:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Homebuilders Should Fare In A Market Correction [View article]
    I like to read the original DataQuick reports. Honestly, the headlines took me by surprise, but I can't wait to dig in. The full reports are often very interesting and illuminating. I wish I could get my hands on all their raw data.
    Oct 14 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Homebuilders Should Fare In A Market Correction [View article]
    So, I actually agree with Dave on lumber prices. I have simply never been able to tie a reliable relationship between lumber prices and the cycles of the housing market. "All else being equal", it makes sense that higher lumber is a function of stronger order for homebuilding, but the trick is what else is going on in the economy to drive those prices up or down? I also have not seen in the earnings I have reviewed any specific concern about lumber prices (also possible I don't recall right now).

    I continue to be fascinated by the passions that the housing market can incite!

    My bottom-line at this juncture is that I accept the potential downside risks ahead, but I am also quite eager and waiting to accept the market's discount. I know it is hard for to believe in the middle of a struggling recovery, geo-political risks, etc, etc...but at some point in the near future, home builders will be right at the forefront of a massive catch-up period for US household formation. I can't predict when it will happen, I just know I want to be positioned correctly when it does. I am willing to be very patient with these stocks and take out the angst of the bear elsewhere...
    Oct 14 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Homebuilders Should Fare In A Market Correction [View article]
    I don't think homebuilders are a growth story anymore. The moonshot did indeed bake in a lot of good news and now, in my opinion, the downdraft and significant lag o market, is baking in a lot of (anticipated) bad news.
    Oct 14 05:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Australian Dollar Stands Between Here And A Larger Correction [View article]
    Thanks for the additional background. I don't focus much on the political side of the coin although it seems I have to!

    I actually wrote my own opinion on that speech from Debelle. I was taken aback by how explicit he was in essentially calling for severe market corrections!
    Oct 14 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stern Warnings To Financial Markets [View article]
    You're welcome. Funny - I haven't tracked financials in a very long time. It is about time that I do!
    Oct 14 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Australian Dollar Stands Between Here And A Larger Correction [View article]
    They have been reluctant to pull the rate card I think out of expectation that U.S. tightening would help do the work for them. Should be interesting to see how long they are willing to keep waiting for the rhetoric from the Fed to actually get a tinge more hawkish.
    Oct 13 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Australian Dollar Stands Between Here And A Larger Correction [View article]
    For this trade, I am keeping my eye on the technicals. 200DMA for AUD/JPY looks like a good spot to exit and then watch. My stop is definitely below the lows for AUD/USD and/or AUD/JPY.

    I just saw news that iron ore prices spiked intraday on Monday, so perhaps that will keep some momentum going. Should be interesting.
    Oct 13 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale +4.6% on iron ore rally [View news story]
    Good catch.
    Oct 13 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lost In The Market Angst: A Dramatic Improvement In Canadian Employment [View article]
    The commodity dependency gives me the lingering hesitancy. But notice that job growth was strong in the natural resources sector this past month. So we can't assume commodities are an absolute headwind here.
    Oct 12 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Close Look At Homebuilders And The Future Of Home Construction [View article]
    I agree with the bulk of the critiques. There is nothing obvious about this analysis except to say that if you believe GDP is going down, then housing is going down with it. I think just about everyone, bears and bulls, would agree with that.

    I would recommend you look at over-valued tech stocks if you want highly profitable shorts in a collapsing GDP scenario. It is growth stocks that would hurt a whole lot more.

    Since homebuilder stocks have been stuck in a rut far longer than the stock market's current hiccup, my inclination is to get ready to buy over-discounted home builders in a larger market correction.

    It is always interesting to me that the preference for buying assets is often when prices are soaring and they are expensive, instead of buying when they are selling for a nice discount...
    Oct 11 12:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Corrects A Bit [View article]
    Things changed very quickly from here and into the close. I still see no specific (fundamental) catalyst. A rush to profit-taking? A domino effect of shorts locking in profits on EUR/USD? A lot of reasonable guesses here. One thing seems certain, volatility is back in a big way in forex. I can only assume these sporadic tremors are early signs of something even bigger coming down the way at some point sooner than later.
    Oct 6 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Negativity Accelerating, Time To Bet On CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling ETF [View article]
    Almost on schedule, the British pound soared today as part of a larger, steep reversal in the dollar. It was so parabolic going into the close of US trading I decided to lock in my profits here. I am buying dips going forward though. Volatility is definitely back in forex in a big way. Bears and bull s need to stay on their toes! I have picked 1.58 to 1.59 as my floor of final interest for this cycle.
    Oct 6 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto And The Iron Ore Version Of 'Dancing Until The Music Stops' [View article]
    Update: I just saw the rumor of the Glencore deal and closed out my puts on the severe post-rumor reversal and locked in profits. A spike in implied volatility sure helped preserve most of the value from Friday's close. No need to stay stubborn. I will just watch how things develop and hope to get an opportunity to re-establish my position at a much higher even today's high.

    RIO is a huge chunk of rock for even mighty Glencore to swallow. But it will sure make it even easier for the major iron ore players to drive the market to ever lower levels in coming months and perhaps years.
    Oct 6 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment