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Dr. Duru

 
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  • There Is Nothing Unusual About The Latest (Sharp) Rally [View article]
    Your first question is hard to answer because of the overlap. If the S&P 500 gains 6%% in 2 days and then including those 2 days plus another 2 days it gains 4.7% overall, do I count that once or twice? So, your first question seems a lot more complicated than answering the question I answered in this piece.

    I don't have an answer to your second question because of a lack of data. But if you can point me to S&P 500 trading data that far back, the question is easy to answer....although I am not confident in the relevancy of stock market price trends before World War II. Something I think going back to 1950 is a stretch but some people like to see many decades of data before believing anything.

    Per my article, analyzing point gains don't make sense to me. Only percentage gains make sense.
    Aug 31 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Splunk: Paving The Way For IBM [View article]
    Always dangerous to short a (former) momentum stock before earnings. Today looked like a massive short squeeze on just enough good news to make SPLK look cheap when just compared to where it's been. However, only 4.6% of the float is short! Very surprising. If the general stock market keeps going higher, SPLK will likely continue getting support. Plenty of overhead resistance from July's high and then the 200-day moving average after that. Still, the tide could be turning for the stock until the next earnings announcement...
    Aug 29 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How NOT To Report On Demographics: Millennials Blamed For Taking Down McDonald's [View article]
    Thanks for the kudos and thanks for reading.

    Great anecdote! Personally, my kids eat McDs much more than I did as a kid. It honestly drives me nuts. Part of it could be access. When I was growing up, going out to eat was an infrequent treat, and MCDs was the pinnacle of "eating out" as a kid. My kids seem to feel the same way and will almost always pick McDs if given the option. My wife and I have been much more diligent lately in mixing things up more. Granted, sometimes that option is cooking chicken nuggets and fries at home. :)
    Aug 28 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How NOT To Report On Demographics: Millennials Blamed For Taking Down McDonald's [View article]
    I hear you, acesfull. It is always useful to check on life expectancy statistics when talking about health issues. If you look too closely at headlines, you would think we are all dying faster and living worse and worse lives.

    However, as life expectancies get ever longer, I am thinking quality of life (and health care cost?) stats for the final years would be very useful as an additional reference.
    Aug 28 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How NOT To Report On Demographics: Millennials Blamed For Taking Down McDonald's [View article]
    That is a great question: another piece of data missing from the WSJ piece. Seeing other fast food chains decline in popularity with millennials could provide more convincing evidence that some type of trend is underway.
    Aug 28 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Nothing Unusual About The Latest (Sharp) Rally [View article]
    Now THAT is definitely unusual. 2013 was certainly an outlier in terms of annual performance. But looking at the pace of this current rally - the numbers say there is nothing unusual about its magnitude or pace.
    Aug 28 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Single-Family New Home Sales Jump 12%, Market Back In Balance [View article]
    I addressed cancellation rates in another similar question you posed on another post. I used KBH as an example - their cancellation rate was about as high during the peak of this current cycle as it is now. I know people have issues with seasonal adjustments, govt data, etc...when it doesn't agree with their own notions. But these are the official statistics accepted in the economic community.

    In my post, and in others, I also acknowledged the current under-performance of ITB vs the S&P 500 whereas earlier this year I had thought (hoped) the general market would be a tailwind. I think of the current divergence as an opportunity for now.
    Aug 27 10:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency Volatility Firming [View article]
    What do you think of the claim by several major Central Banks that extraordinary easing of monetary policy is not to blame for low volatility levels? I have found it hard to accept....
    Aug 27 03:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Struggling To Understand The Resilience Of The Australian Dollar [View article]
    That's correct. The miners are certainly having no trouble exporting everything they produce even as it just stockpiles in China. What they are getting in lower prices, it seems they can still make up in volume. But this is not helping employment and the terms of trade are still declining. These dynamics should be driving the Aussie down according to Stevens.
    Aug 25 07:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Struggling To Understand The Resilience Of The Australian Dollar [View article]
    I was wondering too why he thought taking into account rate spreads couldn't explain the on-going attraction of the Australian dollar. But I guess he is making a strong assumption that the differential is not enough to compensate for the downside risks.

    Stevens definitely seems to be on the side of "only act when/if absolutely necessary." With unemployment rising, the RBA probably doesn't want to do anything that acts against economic activity. I haven't seen the RBA talk seriously about macro-prudential policies, so could be a very long time before that gets on the table!

    You know, this reminds me that there is a study posted on the RBA site on Australian housing prices...asking whether there is a bubble. I have yet to scan through it. I really need to...but it is massive study, and I have not had the time to dare to jump in.
    Aug 25 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar Is Stretched, But Will It Correct? [View article]
    So I take it that you are leaning toward the dollar NOT correcting?

    As far as the over-hype about the Fed missing the boat on inflation, that ready acceptance of that claim seems very consistent with the stubborn strength of the Australian dollar despite said declines in commodities... However, wouldn't the US dollar decline if the market truly believed the Fed was ready to stand aside and allow inflation to run wild...?
    Aug 25 01:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Rides High [View article]
    Gosh. 4 years ago?!? I lost track then! That is indeed an eternity ago given the current cycle.

    With the U.S. dollar soaring against the pound in recent weeks, I am wondering whether "consensus" is starting to shift on who will jump in the pool first....
    Aug 21 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Rides High [View article]
    I assume you meant the BoE is likely to be the first of the major central banks to hike rates *next*. Carney of course led rate hikes at the Bank of Canada a little while back....
    Aug 20 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Splunk: Paving The Way For IBM [View article]
    I am curious to read/hear more about those trends. At first read, I thought this was a pretty good analysis painting the broad picture of the opportunity (or lack thereof) here...

    The trend to use machine learning is definitely well-established. I think the author's main point is that Splunk is not doing anything that protects itself from competitive pressures...which I assume will only increase as current trends continue to evolve...?
    Aug 19 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Continues For Home Builder Confidence Even As Affordability Continues Its Decline [View article]
    I have posted before that this measure of confidence is not a leading indicator. Instead, it has performed as a confirming indicator where the momentum and direction provide the signal, not the absolute level.

    I am not sure what builders you are looking at for inventories, but I see KBH last reported a value of inventory of $3B. The same as of end of Nov, 2007. That was down from $5.8B Nov, 2006. I suspect a big drop in inventory will be more of a bearish signal than an increase. Especially with overall housing production just barely above recessionary levels.
    Aug 19 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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