Stocks: Why One More Major Correction Still Lies Ahead [View article]
Great idea, Paul. But can I ask you for more details? For example, say the null hypothesis holds and that there is no relationship amongst the three corrections over time. How does this result translate into a null hypothesis that three corrections must occur before every bull market? Or did I misunderstand your approach?
Also, are you implying that because of these changes in index composition over time that we also should not expect long-term historical returns to hold? In particular, the long-standing assumptions about things like stocks beating bonds in any 20-year period, retirement calculators that assume whatever is the current assumed long-term return. At first blush, I was thinking Eric's thesis is independent of index composition as long as there are no dramatic changes between bull markets. Or at least the changes that occur continue to be made to reflect the overall market and/or economy...that is, the bias in index construction remains constant over time.
Time For Yet Another Pairs Trade As Juniper Networks And Cisco Systems Plunge [View article]
Interesting! I did not see that news. So reduced dilution, right? But could it also reflect reduced confidence in the ability for the shares to hold their value?
Ah, I see. Well, it all depends on the timeframes. As long as fear dominates in the financial markets and the global economy is grinding down, the pound should have a disadvantage against the U.S. dollar. I agree that the pound gets the advantage on the other side of their austerity program.
ReneSola Will Survive A Solar Recession [View article]
...and insiders keep buying this stock on the cheap! I haven't looked at SOL in a while, but I will be doing so again soon to check whether my expectations for survival through a solar recession are proving accurate.
Positioning More Bearishly Vs. The Australian Dollar As It Loses 2012′s Gains [View article]
I agree with you. LNG is a longer-term play though. In the short-term, the slowing global economy is putting constant downward pressure on the Aussie. I currently think it SHOULD stabilize around parity with the U.S. dollar. From the low 90s on down, the Australian dollar becomes a great buy for a longer-term play.
As Gold And Silver Reawaken, It's Time To Buy Especially Cheap Miners [View article]
Hi Maher - not sure what happened. As GH mentions, it was probably a technical glitch. I believe I have answered your questions in email. Now that your comment made it, we should continue the discussion here, so that others can contribute to the discussion if they so choose.
To that end, here is my first response in our exchange for anyone interested (also posted here: http://bit.ly/JMRI95): -- --- --
Woah – ok. The comparison to the NASDAQ bubble is pretty compelling for silver, but gold is not quite following the pattern, right? I hate to get too technical for gold and silver because I have very fundamental reasons for wanting to stay in both. With Fleck as confident as ever, I am even more loathe to depart from the gameplan. I do agree with you that a break to fresh lows (a break of support) WILL be a technically important event and cause me some consternation as well. Until that happens, I am full steam ahead. One option to consider is hedging a bit with something like a little ZSL or even selling calls (or buying puts) against existing positions.
I would love to hear Fleck’s gameplan if China collapses into a deflationary funk. It seems to me such an event could be very destructive for gold and silver in the short-run but incredibly bullish after the collapse, just like 2008-2009…
As Gold And Silver Reawaken, It's Time To Buy Especially Cheap Miners [View article]
As I mentioned, even for people who already have positions, this is a good time to add to positions. Hopefully, no one commits 100% of capital to these plays (or even a majority of it).
I wish this piece could be the alarm clock though. :)
Correlations Are Broken But Australian Dollar Still Leads The S&P 500 [View article]
Stocks: Why One More Major Correction Still Lies Ahead [View article]
Also, are you implying that because of these changes in index composition over time that we also should not expect long-term historical returns to hold? In particular, the long-standing assumptions about things like stocks beating bonds in any 20-year period, retirement calculators that assume whatever is the current assumed long-term return. At first blush, I was thinking Eric's thesis is independent of index composition as long as there are no dramatic changes between bull markets. Or at least the changes that occur continue to be made to reflect the overall market and/or economy...that is, the bias in index construction remains constant over time.
Time For Yet Another Pairs Trade As Juniper Networks And Cisco Systems Plunge [View article]
Siemens AG Trades On The Edge As German Manufacturing Continues To Contract [View article]
The Pound Continues To Break Down [View article]
ReneSola Will Survive A Solar Recession [View article]
Positioning More Bearishly Vs. The Australian Dollar As It Loses 2012′s Gains [View article]
The Pound Continues To Break Down [View article]
As Gold And Silver Reawaken, It's Time To Buy Especially Cheap Miners [View article]
To that end, here is my first response in our exchange for anyone interested (also posted here: http://bit.ly/JMRI95):
-- --- --
Woah – ok. The comparison to the NASDAQ bubble is pretty compelling for silver, but gold is not quite following the pattern, right? I hate to get too technical for gold and silver because I have very fundamental reasons for wanting to stay in both. With Fleck as confident as ever, I am even more loathe to depart from the gameplan. I do agree with you that a break to fresh lows (a break of support) WILL be a technically important event and cause me some consternation as well. Until that happens, I am full steam ahead. One option to consider is hedging a bit with something like a little ZSL or even selling calls (or buying puts) against existing positions.
I would love to hear Fleck’s gameplan if China collapses into a deflationary funk. It seems to me such an event could be very destructive for gold and silver in the short-run but incredibly bullish after the collapse, just like 2008-2009…
Thanks for dropping this note!
As Gold And Silver Reawaken, It's Time To Buy Especially Cheap Miners [View article]
But it was out-performing for the first several months of its existence.
So, hard to tell what to do on this one!
As Gold And Silver Reawaken, It's Time To Buy Especially Cheap Miners [View article]
As Gold And Silver Reawaken, It's Time To Buy Especially Cheap Miners [View article]
I wish this piece could be the alarm clock though. :)
As Gold And Silver Reawaken, It's Time To Buy Especially Cheap Miners [View article]
How To Play The End Of Google's 'Nine Lives' Around $600 [View article]
How To Play The End Of Google's 'Nine Lives' Around $600 [View article]