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Dr. Duru

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  • Buy The Dip On LGI Homes [View article]
    Thanks for the additional insight. I am getting ready to make my second purchase soon. This is clearly a stock the market has "forgotten."
    Dec 18, 2014. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency Markets Once Again Force The Hand Of The Swiss National Bank [View article]
    The linkage I am claiming is in carry trades. Today's rally in stock markets may be partially attributed to that...
    Dec 18, 2014. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Parabolic Moves In The Ruble And Turkish Lira May Foreshadow The Same For The Australian Dollar [View article]
    Just the Fed today. Arguably, there has not been any catalyzing news for FXA since the string of economic reports in the first week. Perhaps there was enough bad news in there to maintain the downward momentum.

    The interesting thing about all this is that parabolic moves (accelerations of a trend), typically mark the END of something big. Seems like USD/TRY cooled off a LOT today. Not sure about ruble.
    Dec 17, 2014. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Parabolic Moves In The Ruble And Turkish Lira May Foreshadow The Same For The Australian Dollar [View article]
    It definitely has the look of a contagion effect...but it is moving relatively slowly...
    Dec 17, 2014. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swiss National Bank Revises Forecasts Downward For Negative Inflation In 2015 [View article]
    Well, they have anchored themselves to a declining currency, definitely. The deflation will/could get *worse* if the SNB allows the franc to float freely again. While the SNB thinks the currency is very over-valued at current levels, investors, traders, etc.. do not. In fact, the franc could be at parity or stronger with the euro given the popularity of the franc as a European "safe haven." The much stronger currency would likely dampen exports. However, I have noted that Swiss exports seem to be doing fine right now, so I consider it an open question as to whether the economy overall would suffer greatly from an even more over-valued currency. Certainly, some industries are suffering...
    Dec 14, 2014. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Uncertain Impact Of Lower Oil And Gas Prices On Consumer Spending [View article]
    Something else I did not have time to address is that we need to carefully think through what consumers might purchase with their surprise "dividend." In the current recovery, I am doubtful consumer will splurge on non-essentials. It could be better to think about pent-up demand. What is it that consumers have REALLY wanted but have so far not felt comfortable buying or unable to buy until this dividend came along...?
    Dec 13, 2014. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Uncertain Impact Of Lower Oil And Gas Prices On Consumer Spending [View article]
    Thanks for reading and the kudos.

    My main point is that we cannot assume lower gasoline prices will translate into increased consumer spending on retail or anything else. The money DOES have to go somewhere, but it could easily go into paying down debt or savings used for future consumption (like HIGHER oil prices!). We simply don't know, and I think there is enough uncertainty about it to make me circumspect about counting on it.

    I like to put it another way: increasing gasoline prices FORCE economic choices. Decreasing prices do not.
    Dec 13, 2014. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Convergence Of Positive Momentum Continues Its (Quiet) March For Home Builders [View article]
    That's an intriguing combination of catalysts. The continued rise in rental rates should make buying a home increasingly attractive for those who are able to obtain credit.
    Dec 13, 2014. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Black Friday Trading Update: Little To Celebrate But A Rare Combination With All-Time Highs [View article]
    That would be an interesting switch. I would love to check out the data on that. If you want to flee IWM, seems better to just sit in cash for a while.
    Dec 8, 2014. 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bank Of Canada Confirms A Potentially Important Turning Point [View article]
    I haven't come up with a revised price target for Loonie. I am still half-wondering whether my current upside target on USD/CAD of 1.16 will get hit in the next month (right on time). Regardless, I think over the course of time, USD/CAD will drift back toward parity. Stay tuned on this one. Thanks for reading. (Now I need to review the latest Canadian jobs report!).
    Dec 6, 2014. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bank Of Canada Confirms A Potentially Important Turning Point [View article]
    Doubtful that resources will continue to contribute to the economy at the current level (or share), but I was impressed (and surprised) how sotrng it remains right through the current price decline. I will just "wait and see" what the numbers look like "post-OPEC" decision...
    Dec 5, 2014. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Dip On LGI Homes [View article]
    It's the nature of the market right now. They are a relatively small company inside a very large market opportunity (primarily Texas). I expect the growth rates by next year to settle down to something more "reasonable", especially given the tougher comparisons. Any slowdown that cascades from the oil patch may also impact them. Otherwise, I still like the valuation and the longer-term play here. Staying patient as I think it will still take smoe more time for the selling pressures to subside.
    Dec 4, 2014. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: What To Do After Friday's Massacre [View article]
    I went back to your last article on LINE. I am surprised you are not even blinking at the possibility that LINE is particularly getting crushed because investors now feel LINE way overpaid for those energy assets from Devon. While LINE has been clobbered again to prices last seen in 2009, DVN cheerily participated in oil's one-day relief rally today. The RSI oversold indicator does not mean much here as oversold can get more oversold until the panic ends and/or someone demonstrates how the numbers now add up if oil remains at these prices a lot longer than any oil bull is anticipating... Moreover, RSI is mainly good for short-term trading. It can't support a longer-term thesis for holding on for dear life until oil markets recover.

    A related example is HAL. It too failed to participate in oil's nice bounce today. It recently purchased BHI right before oil's recent collapse.

    Having said all that, LINE is on my watch list. But I am in no rush here...
    Dec 2, 2014. 12:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gafisa: One Of The Cheapest Stocks In The World [View article]
    Thanks to John for making the commentary and alerting me to this article. Great stuff. I have been in and out of GFA like a trader as it has worked with the steep dips and sharp rallies. Seems like I should *finally* put down roots for a while.
    Dec 2, 2014. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Chocolate Scare - This Time Contrasting With Cocoa Price Action [View article]
    Yeah, the "oil curse." I am not sure of the situation in Ivory Coast, but I Ghana is still relatively new and is ramping up. I am betting the government has already incorporated a lot of very optimistic revenue forecasts that will now need to get tossed overboard. Net-net, lower oil should reduce costs for cocoa farmers. But the price of cocoa can easily get caught up in the general sell-off in commodities as big funds and institutions are forced into margin calls and generally flee these investments. I think it is an investment/trading opportunity for any commodity where demand remains strong on a long-term basis - like cocoa.
    Dec 1, 2014. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment