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Dr. Duru

 
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  • Finally Stepping In To Start Buying iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF [View article]
    I am only counting on the Olympics to generate more optimism heading into the event. I am definitely not making a projection for ultimate economic impact. Good point on productivity. I haven't looked at that although I have to assume it is low given low unemployment hasn't translated into better GDP growth.
    Oct 29 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally Stepping In To Start Buying iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF [View article]
    Good catch. But since BRF rolled out in 2009, it looks highly correlated to EWZ. Are you making a case for divergence going forward?
    Oct 29 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally Stepping In To Start Buying iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF [View article]
    They are two of the most troubling parts of this contrarian play for me. PBR I am betting on a move to fix the issues there with the corruption scandal being the final purge of bad news. VALE is a different story. It has beaten up to a pulp and should keep going lower as long as BHP and RIO are playing mutually assured destruction with iron ore prices. But together PBR and VALE are less than 10% of EWZ. They are a drag, but not the final story.
    Oct 29 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evidence The Real Estate Recovery Is Intact [View article]
    I fully agree. But you should include ITB in your list of real-estate trackers. It is better indexed toward home builders than XHB.
    Oct 28 04:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FXCM, Inc. Follows Through As Volatility Pays Off [View article]
    Hmmm....since you posted this question, FXCM has suddenly sold off. So maybe you are correct after all. That is, the market is betting this reduction in fee income will hurt the top and bottom lines. Volatility has also plunged, so it very well could be that the market is betting again that volatility is on its way down and for a good while! I am inclined to buy this dip, but I will stay patient given it represents a significant technical breakdown (below the 50 and 200DMAs)
    Oct 26 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of England Minutes Help Cap The Pound Within Its Downtrend [View article]
    Thanks for the reminder of the overhang from the election. I agree that technicals are a good guide for trading the pound here.
    Oct 23 04:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Homebuilders Should Fare In A Market Correction [View article]
    Amazing how the housing market just keeps chugging along...
    I think a lot of this move is elated anticipation of another blow-out new home sales number. But that means expectations are high again...
    If they come in just "ok", this whole episode will start looking a lot like 2011 again when housing numbers continued the recovery right through the alarming macro-headlines....
    Oct 21 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For A Housing Recovery, Visit The Doctor: Buy DR Horton [View article]
    Great stuff.

    I have actually preferred to date the builders more concentrated on the housing markets with strong economic fundamentals. (I am also long DHI). Do you have any reason to think that these markets will cool whenever the economic recovery broadens and enables more first-time homebuyers to step into the market? My thinking has been that such a broadening will make the strong states even more attractive.

    The state-specific busts you referenced were still part of a larger economic malaise in the country.
    Oct 21 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo Summarizes The Case For Staying Optimistic On U.S. Housing [View article]
    He had to devote his time to the financial results of his company. As I noted, I have covered the data supporting Stumpf's claims in other posts. I treat his commentary as important given WFC's central role in the housing market. I provided some historical context to make it clear that he has tended to be optimistic during the recovery.
    Oct 21 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FXCM, Inc. Follows Through As Volatility Pays Off [View article]
    I think the timing of the cuts is specifically to help encourage the extra trading volume. Time will tell of course. The cut in fees is also set up to attract new customers.
    Oct 20 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fade The Pros - Buy The Pound [View article]
    I like most of this. The main sticking point for me is the discussion of QE. QE did not stop the British pound from soaring most of this year against all currencies. Economic and future rate expectation proved much more important. Similarly for the dollar on QE3. THe dollar actually bottomed soon after that and has since never gone much lower than that.

    So, I am wondering whether the poor timing of large traders implies that they are using the British pound as a hedge on some other trades?
    Oct 18 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For A 'Texas Hedge'? [View article]
    I also prefer options on this kind of trade. A nice automatic cap on losses no matter what happens.
    Oct 16 04:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Homebuilders Should Fare In A Market Correction [View article]
    I like to read the original DataQuick reports. Honestly, the headlines took me by surprise, but I can't wait to dig in. The full reports are often very interesting and illuminating. I wish I could get my hands on all their raw data.
    Oct 14 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Homebuilders Should Fare In A Market Correction [View article]
    So, I actually agree with Dave on lumber prices. I have simply never been able to tie a reliable relationship between lumber prices and the cycles of the housing market. "All else being equal", it makes sense that higher lumber is a function of stronger order for homebuilding, but the trick is what else is going on in the economy to drive those prices up or down? I also have not seen in the earnings I have reviewed any specific concern about lumber prices (also possible I don't recall right now).

    I continue to be fascinated by the passions that the housing market can incite!

    My bottom-line at this juncture is that I accept the potential downside risks ahead, but I am also quite eager and waiting to accept the market's discount. I know it is hard for to believe in the middle of a struggling recovery, geo-political risks, etc, etc...but at some point in the near future, home builders will be right at the forefront of a massive catch-up period for US household formation. I can't predict when it will happen, I just know I want to be positioned correctly when it does. I am willing to be very patient with these stocks and take out the angst of the bear elsewhere...
    Oct 14 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Homebuilders Should Fare In A Market Correction [View article]
    I don't think homebuilders are a growth story anymore. The moonshot did indeed bake in a lot of good news and now, in my opinion, the downdraft and significant lag o market, is baking in a lot of (anticipated) bad news.
    Oct 14 05:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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