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Dr. Duru  

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  • The Reserve Bank Of Australia Is Content To Wait For The U.S. Federal Reserve [View article]
    I don't have the historical knowledge going back that far. But it IS instructive to note that around 2003-2004 was the beginning of the big run in commodities.

    I do seem to recall that the Australian economy was struggling back then and the big China engine that lifted their boat had not quite kicked in it. The danger for Australia is that if China reverses significantly, Australia has very little in terms of a fallback plan.
    Sep 1, 2015. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Reserve Bank Of Australia Is Content To Wait For The U.S. Federal Reserve [View article]
    I forgot to mention, I would not get faked out by oil. That was some vicious short-covering. I wrote about my short-term opinion a bit here: http://bit.ly/1FeCwJO
    Sep 1, 2015. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Reserve Bank Of Australia Is Content To Wait For The U.S. Federal Reserve [View article]
    Really hard for me to call the odds on the GDP report. Even harder making a specific play on it. I am going to instead choose to take down some of my shorts and try to react fast after the report.

    In times like these, laying out some simple rules is best.

    But I like your thinking in terms of maybe the RBA is so calm because it is relatively confident in the coming economic numbers. I am VERY doubtful though!
    Sep 1, 2015. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carney Attempts To Declare Monetary Independence From Global Turmoil [View article]
    Pretty interesting that the BoE has made a strong habit out of "looking through" whatever is the existing pressure on inflation (up or down). It seems like a huge recipe for inaction. I have had a good chuckle over the number of times Carney has claimed the BoE is *acting* to support the domestic economy when what is really going on is the *lack* of action and comfort with leaving rates low...
    Aug 31, 2015. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carney Attempts To Declare Monetary Independence From Global Turmoil [View article]
    Let's see what the RBA has to say tonight. I think Aussie short is still good, but I agree risk/reward is not nearly as good as it was a few weeks ago.
    Aug 31, 2015. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carney Attempts To Declare Monetary Independence From Global Turmoil [View article]
    The irony is that Carney actually manage a rate hike while running the Bank of Canada. So his insistence last year on a rate hike had a lot of credibility.
    Aug 31, 2015. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Time To Buy Housing Stocks: iShares U.S. Home Construction [View article]
    The interesting thing with homebuilder stocks, as in real estate in general, is that most people are most reluctant to buy when these assets are cheap. Instead, low prices cause fear and projections of apocalypse. And then, when prices recover, the hesitation continues because of the fear imprinted from the last trough that says that the recovery can't possible be real or last.

    Just look at some of the extremely bearish articles printing when housing was struggling at its very bottom.
    Aug 30, 2015. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Time To Buy Housing Stocks: iShares U.S. Home Construction [View article]
    Homebuilders are going to benefit greatly from the cyclical downturn in commodities. That is yet one more positive tailwind coming down the line.
    Aug 30, 2015. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Time To Buy Housing Stocks: iShares U.S. Home Construction [View article]
    Take your pick, that's all good! Investing in housing over the long-term America should be a winner given the country is under-producing relative to future population and economic growth. I understand your hesitation given homebuilders have had nice run-ups from their bottoms. I still prefer to buy/add on dips, not chase.

    The regional builders are still very cheap though. I have written about them in previous pieces.
    Aug 30, 2015. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Time To Buy Housing Stocks: iShares U.S. Home Construction [View article]
    I have been hearing about the looming threat of shadow inventories ever since the bubble popped. It was one of the biggest bearish arguments applied when I made the case for a housing bottom. I even had to write a piece addressing the rumors of all that shadow inventory. Sounds like I need to write another one, but I am even more curious about the evidence since you say it is well-documented. Where can I find it?
    Aug 30, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why You Should Stick With BHP Billiton In The Downturn [View article]
    I agree. My read is that there are plenty of reasons to continue to stay away until the industries BHP plays rationalize and stop over-producing into weakening demand. The next blow could come from a cut in the dividend. That would hurt short term but longer term it will save resources for making key acquisitions and/or keeping the company fit to ride out what could be an extended period of slower growth in China.
    Aug 30, 2015. 11:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once Again, Buy The Euro [View article]
    Over what timeframe and currencies are you taking about strengthening? For example, the euro still trades lower against the dollar relative to the ECB's official QE news. Ditto the pound. The more salient narrative right now is that the strength of the euro during the recent crash was all about carry unwind, not a safety trade.
    Also, going forward, you seem to imply that the inflation numbers presage a significant strengthening in the euro zone economy. Is that correct? Given China is a major trading partner with the euro zone, doesn't the yuan devaluation threaten to slow the eurozone's prospects?
    Aug 29, 2015. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Second Quarter Earnings, Splunk Or Tableau Are No-Brainers [View article]
    I was wondering a similar thing. The companies are not direct competitors so I didn't get the direct head-to-head comparison. Given the data here, a portfolio-based approach could work although I would still like to see more profitability.
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley's 27 stocks to buy on the dip [View news story]
    Liking the domestic-based businesses like homebuilders.
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn Takes Large Stake In Freeport - Sign Of Mature Mining Bear? [View article]
    Thanks for that info. I was going to ask why we should assume the commodity bear is mature just because a guy with a lot of money throws some money at it.
    Aug 28, 2015. 08:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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