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Dr. Duru

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  • Momentum Stocks Got You Down? Try A Low-Risk Trade On The S&P 500 For A Change [View article]
    Thanks for the feedback. I have admittedly ignored the fallout from the Lewis book because nothing he said is new. We have known those details since HFT first hit the scene in a big way in the financial crisis and particularly during the "Flash Crash." But I could be seriously under-estimating the impact on mainstream market participants.

    Short-term traders and momentum traders don't really care much about bargains. They care more that OTHER people think there are bargains...
    Apr 8 05:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bankruptcy Trade: Coldwater Creek Gets Colder [View article]
    Update: clearly, the trade was NOT over in just one day as day #2 brought even larger gains for CWTR! It closed up another 45% and was over a double at the highs of the day. While I missed day #2, this sharp bounce back is another validation of the strategy described here. But monitoring risk/reward is of utmost importance now: CWTR *could* roll out a concession to the rumors at any time.
    Apr 2 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wix.com Shows More Cracks In Momentum Stocks, Even As Divergent Signals Abound [View article]
    I have definitely been hearing about two related impacts: traders over-leveraged in momentum names getting forced to purge; and some profit-taking to chase other names. "Other names" could become value stocks and other relatively "cheaper" stocks. I noticed that earlier today SPLV managed to crack new all-time highs... Also intriguing for the international commodity/construction... scene: CAT cracked $100 for the first time in almost two years today....

    Thanks for reading and thanks for the feedback.
    Mar 31 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overreaction To Yellen Rate 'Guidance' Drives Fresh Breakout For U.S. Dollar Against Canadian Dollar [View article]
    By the time rates go up, we wont' remember what a rate hike looks like...and perhaps the market will be the one forcing it.
    Mar 21 04:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Settling For Range-Bound Trading In Homebuilders [View article]
    Where indeed are the first time homebuyers. Mostly locked out because of tight credit conditions. The catalyst for loosening will be a healthier economy....which of course might need looser credit conditions as a precursor (part of the nice, endless loop the Fed is playing in rationalizing loose monetary policy). From what I have read in home builder earning reports, the issue is not being addressed head on as an ultimate cap on prospects. But once first-timers come in, I am guessing a next leg up will finally get underway. Could be a while yet....
    Mar 19 05:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Settling For Range-Bound Trading In Homebuilders [View article]
    Sounds basically like an argument for playing pairs trades. I don't see housing anywhere near a euphoria point yet. Inventories are tight in metros with strong economies, homebuilding activity is still not far off from depression-like levels, lots of people continue to delay and postpone household formation - creating some as yet unknown backlog for the future.

    So, generally, I agree with you that in the sputters and spurts there are short-term trades to be had. For now, I prefer to hold a core position, add when the market gets overly negative, and in-between be opportunistic as you describe..if I can!
    Mar 19 05:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Growing Collection Of Bearish Signs Looking For Confirmation [View article]
    Well, at least I have come around to thinking the market has put in a top here for now: http://bit.ly/1fZeJ8E

    It will be interesting to see at what point the US dollar rejoins the "safety" trade. Perhaps when traders stop betting on the euro for "safety"!? But I see your point that the market may also be anticipating increasing economic weakness as QE support declines...he narrative however was much different last year. QE wind-down was supposed to support the dollar and signal economic strength!
    Mar 16 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Get Distracted By Massive Insider Stock Sales At Toll Brothers [View article]
    Yes, I looked at the facts of the case and that's where my assessment came from. I believe Robert Toll happens to be one of the richest of the homebuilder owners. I don't think any other exec even comes close to his level of ownership. So, he is a fat, rich target for these kinds of suits. He is also known for making definitive commentary on expectations for the housing market, making him even more vulnerable to the slightest of slip-ups. Note that the lawsuit has not stopped the selling because there is nothing illegal about the sales. And as I mentioned, it is impossible to correlate these sales to anything in the housing cycle because the sales occur at low and high points for the stock. The executives also still give market commentary, perhaps it is more guarded and less useful than it used to be (I don't know for sure, just a guess).

    The stock is indeed expensive, but for a reason: margins, sales, and operational excellence. However, I am coming around now to thinking the stock is not going to break out any further for a while from here.
    Mar 16 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Draghi (Finally) Jawbones The Euro, Putting A Reversal In Sight [View article]
    Jawboning is definitely an attempt to manipulate markets. But it is the one way central bankers can do it within the currency agreements that supposedly prevent them from direct intervention. It does not work in the long-term because the markets eventually respond to action, not words. The Australian dollar was/is the best example - the market will keep daring the central bankers to back up talk with the walk... In the case of the ECB, I think this jawboning is setting the stage for action. Especially if EUR/USD goes above 1.40, I expect "something" to start warming up....
    Mar 16 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Draghi (Finally) Jawbones The Euro, Putting A Reversal In Sight [View article]
    Perhaps traders are betting that *because* they foresee low inflation, deflation even, the euro should be stronger....
    Mar 16 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading The Ranges In M.D.C. Holdings And Tri-Pointe Homes [View article]
    I am now on my second trip on this trade. This was a good catch!
    Mar 16 01:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Draghi (Finally) Jawbones The Euro, Putting A Reversal In Sight [View article]
    Seems as with many other jawboning campaigns, the market is likely to force action over talk. The euro, at least so far, is already rebounding sharply.
    Mar 14 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Growing Collection Of Bearish Signs Looking For Confirmation [View article]
    Yep! One of the red flag. But since your post, the dollar has recovered smartly. We have countervailing winds from Mario Draghi FINALLY trying to talk the euro down. So my USD signal is going to get very complicated if the ECB has finally decided to actively engage in jawboning....and even more importantly, direct intervention with even loser monetary policies.

    Check out the Australian dollar vs the Japanese yen as a good enough substitute indicator in forex....
    Mar 13 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Growing Collection Of Bearish Signs Looking For Confirmation [View article]
    Thanks ITB is *definitely* contrarian to the bearish winds I now see. My position was a play of what I thought was a breakout to lead to a fresh rally. Very wrong on that!

    However, I remain overall bullish on the housing sector and these shares will be some of the first I buy (and/or add to) whenever the market flips to an "oversold" condition.

    Stay tuned!
    Mar 13 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Growing Collection Of Bearish Signs Looking For Confirmation [View article]
    That's another great perspective. I think consensus has been an expectation for a 10% downdraft at some point this year, presumably from last year's close. But timing is everything for fresh entries. If the market gains 8% and then loses 10%, much different of course than losing 10% now, and gaining 8% afterward. On balance, risk/reward is poor.
    Mar 13 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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