Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Dr. Duru  

View Dr. Duru's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • - Investors Applaud The Purchase Of Endicia [View article]
    Thx for the reply...
    Mar 28, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • - Investors Applaud The Purchase Of Endicia [View article]
    Sounds like you are itching to issue a sell recommendation. :) At a minimum, the price now provides zero room for error. Since it seems the company must acquire growth, shouldn't we expect a stock issuance at some point?
    Mar 27, 2015. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Had To Happen - An Outright Call For Iron Ore Collusion [View article]
    When you put it that way, an export tax makes sense assuming the government believes that the resources will garner more value on a longer time horizon. But does the government have any better insight on that than anyone else?
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The IMF Promotes Policy Easing For Switzerland As Speculators Turn Bullish On The Franc [View article]
    That is indeed another good way to put it. Interestingly, this revival in Swiss franc strength has occurred while the euro has gone on a strong counter-trend rally. I wonder what will/can cause a new divergence in performance....
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • February New Home Sales Confirm Strong Sales Reports From Home Builders [View article]
    Thanks for the note! Yes - the headlines sound a lot better when they are negative about housing because a lot of deflationist psychology remains after all these years. And certainly the pain of the housing bust remains as fresh as ever for many. Moreover, housing is still not anywhere close to performing as one would expect in a housing recovery....and of course those of us trying to hold onto the bull by the tail see this as the nice upside opportunity over the horizon...
    Mar 25, 2015. 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Start Shorting The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    Agreed. Any fundamental analysis can sound good in theory. But when price action has been going against a theory for an extended period of time, it is time to at least get cautious not lever up the bet. Defining some kind of level that signifies a trend break is a better managed risk approach to being a contrarian in a market that could zoom much further than anyone might expect sitting here now.
    Mar 25, 2015. 12:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecasted Inflation Tanks As Swiss Franc's Run Of Weakness Takes A Pause [View article]
    You're welcome. I was surprised major headlines weren't screaming about this either. I guess since it didn't come with a major currency move, mainstream financial media assumed it wasn't too newsworthy?
    Mar 24, 2015. 12:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Australian Dollar Holds Recent Bottom Despite Surge In Rate Cut Expectations [View article]
    Someone just recommended AUNZ. I am still shorting the Australian dollar so I wouldn't go into an Australian bond fund. It is also not quite clear how much further the RBA is willing to cut rates at this point. Maybe 1 or 2 more max? Then again, who would have predicted one country after another in Europe going negative....
    Mar 23, 2015. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources CEO Yearns For Iron Ore Collusion, Uh, Cooperation [View article]
    I am guessing miners would fight the export tax tooth and nail. It could send some marginal miners out of production even faster.
    Mar 21, 2015. 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources CEO Yearns For Iron Ore Collusion, Uh, Cooperation [View article]
    I don't think I have made any distinctions between short-term and long-term as I have no insight into the exact timing of how these market dynamics play out. My main assessment is that observers have consistently been wrong about how severe the price declines would be in iron ore.

    I am not clear on your point about cost-cutting. All the miners are forced to cut costs to stay competitive. They are preparing and buffering themselves from on-going margin pressure from declining prices.

    I am surprised to learn that the miners have scheduled such aggressive supply expansions with such inaccurate estimates of port capacity. Then again, it could just be part of the same poor assessments of how quickly higher cost production would exit the market.
    Mar 21, 2015. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Divergent Regions For Housing Starts And Divergent Bets Against Homebuilders [View article]
    Looks like Yellen and company have successfully stalled yet again... :)
    Mar 20, 2015. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Critical Juncture For The British Pound [View article]
    Now that is an exotic pair! Good luck on that. I don't think my brain can handle yet one more country's monetary policies. :)

    As I am typing, the British pound is launching bigtime off the lows against the U.S. dollar. Played out much better than I could have expected. But now it is time to step aside and be a lot more tentative with sterling trades until post-election.
    Mar 18, 2015. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Race Against Volatility And Bearish Sentiment For The United States Oil ETF [View article]
    I think this requires a few diagrams! :) I get your point. I am a little late to the game considering the various strategies. To-date, I have been buying ERY on dips and selling on rips. But I think that trade is getting played out as ERY keeps making lower highs since the Dec peak.

    One of my favorite trades is to jump in on a surge of sentiment, whether bullish or bearish. Looks like oil is finally heading for another swoosh of negativity. But on the fundamental side, I would still like to see at least SOME sign that inventories can actually go down again!
    Mar 18, 2015. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Race Against Volatility And Bearish Sentiment For The United States Oil ETF [View article]
    In options, that is something like that big January 2017 options trade. If you are directly talking about the bid/ask spreads on futures, equity, or options, that kind of game is for high frequency traders and market makers and others who can get very low trading costs.

    If you are talking about selling both call and put option spreads, then that is a trade that can be very robust. The downside is capped (unlike the Jan 2017 trade discussed here) although the upside is similarly very limited. You will basically want to sell spreads a little away from the money in anticipation of USO settling somewhere in between your strikes. it could require several repositionings which will of course further reduce the upside potential.
    Mar 18, 2015. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Race Against Volatility And Bearish Sentiment For The United States Oil ETF [View article]
    The amount of bottom-fishing, at least as suggest by the articles and market headlines I have seen in the past several months, turned out to be a classic contrarian signal. I am most fascinated that it was the OPEC meeting that finally and definitively changed the trading character to the bearish camp. Yet, bottom-fishing has continued apace as well. It is quite a mi of opinions and trades - it is a big reason why I am most intrigued by trades which bet on a longer-term range once this all finally settle out...
    Mar 18, 2015. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment