Dr. Duru

Research In Motion Not Likely to Spend $1.2B on Share Repurchase Program

Just a quick point of clarification, as this issue came up in an email exchange I had. I purposely excluded counting long-term investments on the balance sheet. *Typically*, long-term investments are not considered liquid. Unless the monies were specifically set aside for future repurchase programs, a drawdown of these funds for such a purpose could be considered a red flag about the financial health of a company.

A Last Chance for VXX

Yep. Every dip continues to get bought. Wednesday's included! Like I said "last chance for VXX" for me...

Do Not Expect an Encore from Intel

Day #2: INTC has completely lost all of its post-earnings gains. Not a great start to the massive upgrade cycle.

My main point was that we should not expect the kinds of huge upside surprises INTC has delivered this year for the near-term (like next several quarters).

Thanks anyway for the attempt at providing constructive criticism.

On Oct 14 10:25 AM analysis101vp wrote:

> You're clueless. Intel is on the verge of a huge upgrade cycle and
> their current stellar results came in during a very tough economic
> cycle. Intel will surely prove you wrong and stock will go much
> much higher from here. YOU KNOW NOTHING!

Cramer's Stop Trading! Costco Comes Back (10/7/09)

Interesting that COST is also showing a spike in healthcare costs: inflationwatch.wordpre.../

Costco Earnings Surpass Estimates

Interesting that COST earnings are also showing a spike in healthcare costs: inflationwatch.wordpre.../

Which Contrarians Are Correct About the Stock Market?

Thanks for the kudos and great adds everyone.

And regarding the dollar, yes, I should have said a "weakening", not "weak" dollar.

--- Dr. Duru

On Sep 25 04:44 AM Does nobody understand what long term actually means? wrote:

> What a fantastic piece. Feels like you are looking into a pair of
> facing mirrors with your own reflection disappearing into infinity.
> Not sure about the idea of hedge funds representing the dumb money
> though. Anybody that can get somebody else to pay them 2 and 20 can't
> be that dumb.
>
> Maybe the market's evolution from here will be about facts rather
> than sentiment because the latter is resolutely split. If that is
> the case then I jump to the bear side because the economic background
> is highly likely to worsen as stimulus fades. I guess that makes
> you a little bit more bullish.

As Expected, First Solar Disappoints

Hi jimp,

I am not sure whether I like TSL for the long-term. I honestly do not know a whole lot about the Chinese solar companies. But based on the impressive short-term set-up on TSL, I am committing myself to learn more.


On Aug 02 07:38 AM jimp wrote:

> Dr. Duru,
> For the "long term," do you like Trina solar?

Prepare for a (Weak) Oversold Bounce

Thanks for the comments folks. I think today (Monday) is the bounce I was looking for. At least I was positioning for at least a 2-3% move. The higher this goes from here, the more caution is needed for short-term traders trying to go long. Lots of overhead resistance from here...

Michigan Confidence at Highest Level Since January 2008

I should have added that I wonder whether it is the rate and direction of change that matters more than the absolute level?


On Jun 27 08:19 PM Dr. Duru wrote:

> I agree with the folks who point out that a valid perspective on
> these numbers is to wonder why confidence was so high right before
> things got so bad. We cannot say that these confidence numbers are
> BOTH backward-looking and forward-looking depdending on the spin
> we prefer.
> I would love to see some study that shows to what these confidence
> numbers are supposed to be correlated. For example, before this recession,
> I believe it was accepted that there was litlle to no correlation
> between consumer confidence and spending.

Michigan Confidence at Highest Level Since January 2008

I agree with the folks who point out that a valid perspective on these numbers is to wonder why confidence was so high right before things got so bad. We cannot say that these confidence numbers are BOTH backward-looking and forward-looking depdending on the spin we prefer.
I would love to see some study that shows to what these confidence numbers are supposed to be correlated. For example, before this recession, I believe it was accepted that there was litlle to no correlation between consumer confidence and spending.

Major Retailers Report Poor Earnings: Why Are Their Stocks Up 60%-100%?

In addition to AJB7's comments, I would add short squeezes (or attempted short squeezes). Check out the stats just on the % of of float sold short (currently):
JWN: 18%
JCP: 11%
ANF: 19%
These are extremely high %s and create big targets when the market mood turns as it has since March.

Dollar Appears to Be Topping Out...Again

I should have said more accurately that rising oil prices are a potential confirming signal of a weakening dollar. An effect, not cause.

Now I'm a Lagging Indicator Too

Thanks, JAC!


On May 08 09:41 AM JAC wrote:

> Well best of luck in the new endeavours. I am sure you will do well
> (your postings which I follow, show you have the smarts, diligence
> and patience to do well).

CAT's Out of the Bag and Rebounding Fast

Don't forget that CAT stated in its conference call that its 2009 outlook likely represents the bottom of the downturn. I guess that thesis is now heavily dependent on Chinese stimulus?

Is a New Market Bull Around the Corner?

Should be a wild ride either way. (P.S. - SA changed the title on me. These days, I try (imperfectly) to avoid making broad statements in my titles like the coming of a new bull or a new bear market).