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Dr. Duru

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  • Trulia's New 'Bubble Watch' Nudges California And Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory [View article]
    Every house price index is flawed in some way. It is amazingly difficult to come up with a representative price to describe even local real estate markets, much less statewide or nationwide. I suspect this is why Trulia blended multiple indices in its analysis.
    May 17 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trulia's New 'Bubble Watch' Nudges California And Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory [View article]
    Agreed. Thanks for adding that color.
    May 17 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trulia's New 'Bubble Watch' Nudges California And Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory [View article]
    Except that was 6 years ago. Valuations have moved, inflation has continued, rates are way down. It also depends on "true" demand and how those homes are getting financed. Given continuing tight credit conditions, I suspect that area is not in bubble territory but is in "full recovery" territory. Will be interesting to watch how things unfold from here.
    May 17 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trulia's New 'Bubble Watch' Nudges California And Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory [View article]
    I agree with the respondents. You are extrapolating from a corner case to make a general assumption. The research starts with understanding how many single bedroom apartments can you find in SF at that rate. Next, create an equivalent for a home of the similar size/configuration. Not easy. So, the analysis is done in aggregates and ignores a lot of the noise. The most direct comparison is the cost of renting a home vs buying a home.... There are a LOT of rent vs buy calculators on the web. You can try them out. They are relatively consistent with each other.
    May 17 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trulia's New 'Bubble Watch' Nudges California And Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory [View article]
    Do you have some examples in other regions I should look into? I currently think of CA, Phoenix, Dallas, and some parts of Florida as some of the hottest areas.
    May 17 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trulia's New 'Bubble Watch' Nudges California And Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory [View article]
    Amazing. But very consistent with what realtors and friends are telling me.
    May 17 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily S&P 500 Trading: Monday Under-Performance, Tuesday Out-Performance And Other Patterns [View article]
    Market is definitely overbought, but it might not matter. Market can stay overbought for an extended period of time. My analysis seems to agree with yours that an extended run to the upside has a high likelihood here.
    May 16 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Mystifying Rate Cut By The Reserve Bank Of Australia [View article]
    Any thoughts on the budget and why Australia is now going to be in deficit for longer than expected?
    May 15 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Strike Against Canadian Dollar As Public Sector Continues To Lead Job Growth [View article]
    Good luck to us both then!
    May 15 04:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Strike Against Canadian Dollar As Public Sector Continues To Lead Job Growth [View article]
    Yes, I was quite surprised to see how public sector job growth is dominating the employment picture now.
    May 13 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilder Price Performance Diverges In 2013 As Shorts Continue An Uneven Retreat [View article]
    I think TPH has all the lots they need right now. All the builders are still trying to secure additional lots as they see the opportunities stretching out for at least a few years. I wrote about TPH's business model here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 9 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilder Price Performance Diverges In 2013 As Shorts Continue An Uneven Retreat [View article]
    Thanks as always for the additional detail. I have my eye on TPH and I did review much of their IPO filing. I wrote about some of it in an earlier post. I didn't come away from it with as bullish a read as you did, but then again, you were even more bullish on KBH last year than I was!

    I am also keeping an eye on Lennar with its Treasure Island holdings. The Chinese lending did not come through as desired, but I see the state government is keenly interested in seeing LEN succeed. So, they have do indeed have an enviable advantage there.
    May 9 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Infosys And Cognizant Are Buys Here Despite Downgrades And Negative Chatter [View article]
    I should have gone to the results to confirm. SA reported a 6000 reduction in its market currents. An editorial mistake I guess!
    May 9 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Infosys And Cognizant Are Buys Here Despite Downgrades And Negative Chatter [View article]
    Unfortunate timing with this piece. Note that CTSH reported a 6K reduction in headcount last quarter. Where did you get the info that they are hiring at a frenetic pace?

    I do think the INFY poor report and the negative reaction to IBM earnings set up a great buying opp for CTSH.
    May 8 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Mystifying Rate Cut By The Reserve Bank Of Australia [View article]
    Perhaps part of the reason the devaluation is not working as well as they like is that they are not being direct about it. The Swiss complained a long time about their over-valued currency, and the market ignored them until they forced the issue with the floor. It is an interesting dynamic where the market seems to largely ignore the valuations of central bankers until they direct and forceful action.

    Saying outright that they are acting to get the currency lower would be an important first step for the market to believe that the currency is indeed over-valued. Until then, rates will just keeping creeping ever lower toward zero I guess!
    May 7 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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