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Dr. Duru

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  • A Growing Collection Of Bearish Signs Looking For Confirmation [View article]
    I will have to steal that "intellectual eye candy" phrase one day! Thanks for reminding me about traders who might sell just to get ahead of sell in May. Although sell in May works almost as poorly as the January barometer in terms of anticipating sell-offs, when the summer DOES perform badly, it is pretty extreme. This, I can understand the abundance of caution traders take with May.

    I should look at the historical data and see whether the May + Summer performance is any different when the market is at or near all-time highs...
    Mar 12 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Skullcandy's Recovery Has Arrived - Stock Goes Berserk On The Recognition [View article]
    I thought it was a short squeeze as well until I saw how much short interest has shrunk. Hard to imagine this was all a squeeze when trading volume was 13M and short interest isn't even up to 1M shares.
    Mar 11 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Investment Firm Tries To Nail The (All-Time) Bottom In RadioShack [View article]
    That was definitely an ugly earnings call. Company is definitely rushing to plug the holes in the ship....Stock is stabilizing post-earnings for now...
    Mar 5 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Absurd Bubble Talk [View article]
    Thanks for supplying these links!
    Mar 4 11:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beyond The January Barometer: A Nuanced View Of Monthly Vs. Yearly S&P 500 Performance [View article]
    A rebalancing is as good an explanation as any. It would be interesting to see whether January's have been similarly weak after other strong runs in stock market history. Sample size will be pretty small though...!
    Mar 3 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Same Euro Inflation, Same Euro Unemployment, But A Reverse Reaction In The Euro [View article]
    I guess the yapping shorts are as resilient as the euro's rally. Don't worry. I have the staying power (I think!). I am not betting the farm, and I am scaling in. Was fortunate to close out the last position when I did.

    The resilience of the euro is starting to remind me of how stubbornly resilient the Australian dollar was...the market simply likes to try to force the central bankers to back up their talk with action.
    Mar 3 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Campbell Soup: How To Identify A Post-Earnings Recovery [View article]
    Agreed. The risk/reward ratio is definitely not nearly as good as it was just a little while ago. But I don't want to drop this one from my radar again!
    Mar 2 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Campbell Soup: How To Identify A Post-Earnings Recovery [View article]
    Do you know why they closed the plant and perhaps why products were made there?
    Mar 2 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Get Distracted By Massive Insider Stock Sales At Toll Brothers [View article]
    That lawsuit is related to the housing bubble and that article is from late 2012. It is easy to nail a lot of companies during the housing bubble because the bubble itself was about convincing people that what was clearly abnormal was actually rational.

    I would flip around any bearish interpretation of this settlement and state that TOL has likely been even more careful in their statements in earnings reports. Regardless, it changes nothing about the program of regularly selling stock. Since the selling is constant and on-going, essentially regularly scheduled, it is impossible to extrapolate any meaning from the sales regarding timing the housing cycle. This is my main point. I have seen too many people look at these sales without the larger context and come to bearish interpretations.

    Moreover, this is a key part of the settlement: "As part of the settlement, the defendants denied they traded on any non-public insider information about the company, breached their fiduciary duties or made misleading statements about the company." Essentially, TOL found it easier, cheaper, and more practical to settle than to drag this out into a full court battle. Trial lawyers are good at finding this kind of easy money...
    Mar 1 06:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Absurd Bubble Talk [View article]
    Where do you get the data on S&P 500 operating earnings?
    Mar 1 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RMB Weakness Accelerates And Steady EMU Inflation Drives Market At Month End [View article]
    Interesting! That is a great way to describe it. I am guessing though the SNB would prefer a more normal relationship where a stronger euro leads EUR/CHF higher. It seems like the SNB may "never" get its wish for a much weaker currency at this rate.
    Mar 1 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RMB Weakness Accelerates And Steady EMU Inflation Drives Market At Month End [View article]
    I am wondering why the Swiss franc tends to strengthen when the euro strengthens. For example, on Friday's big move up in EUR/USD, EUR/CHF actually traded lower to multi-month lows. Any thoughts on how to explain that?
    Mar 1 01:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2014 Homebuilder Breakout Begins Early With A Very Bullish D.R. Horton [View article]
    Very good point. I have not made use of selling puts as much as I should. It especially made sense when the stocks were bouncing around in that earlier consolidation phase. I own shares now. So I am good. I bought on this same day when the stock slipped a little. I realized that based on my own writing, it made much more sense to get a position in play than to hope for cheaper prices....
    Feb 28 01:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2014 Homebuilder Breakout Begins Early With A Very Bullish D.R. Horton [View article]
    Thank you, sir.
    Feb 28 01:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2014 Homebuilder Breakout Begins Early With A Very Bullish D.R. Horton [View article]
    Exactly, oh well! I had a different read on them. Still holding DHI. I sold MDC into the current pop as an opportunistic trade on its current range. But always ready to buy it back on another dip....
    Feb 28 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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