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Dr. Duru

 
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  • Lost In The Market Angst: A Dramatic Improvement In Canadian Employment [View article]
    The commodity dependency gives me the lingering hesitancy. But notice that job growth was strong in the natural resources sector this past month. So we can't assume commodities are an absolute headwind here.
    Oct 12 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Close Look At Homebuilders And The Future Of Home Construction [View article]
    I agree with the bulk of the critiques. There is nothing obvious about this analysis except to say that if you believe GDP is going down, then housing is going down with it. I think just about everyone, bears and bulls, would agree with that.

    I would recommend you look at over-valued tech stocks if you want highly profitable shorts in a collapsing GDP scenario. It is growth stocks that would hurt a whole lot more.

    Since homebuilder stocks have been stuck in a rut far longer than the stock market's current hiccup, my inclination is to get ready to buy over-discounted home builders in a larger market correction.

    It is always interesting to me that the preference for buying assets is often when prices are soaring and they are expensive, instead of buying when they are selling for a nice discount...
    Oct 11 12:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Corrects A Bit [View article]
    Things changed very quickly from here and into the close. I still see no specific (fundamental) catalyst. A rush to profit-taking? A domino effect of shorts locking in profits on EUR/USD? A lot of reasonable guesses here. One thing seems certain, volatility is back in a big way in forex. I can only assume these sporadic tremors are early signs of something even bigger coming down the way at some point sooner than later.
    Oct 6 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Negativity Accelerating, Time To Bet On CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling ETF [View article]
    Almost on schedule, the British pound soared today as part of a larger, steep reversal in the dollar. It was so parabolic going into the close of US trading I decided to lock in my profits here. I am buying dips going forward though. Volatility is definitely back in forex in a big way. Bears and bull s need to stay on their toes! I have picked 1.58 to 1.59 as my floor of final interest for this cycle.
    Oct 6 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto And The Iron Ore Version Of 'Dancing Until The Music Stops' [View article]
    Update: I just saw the rumor of the Glencore deal and closed out my puts on the severe post-rumor reversal and locked in profits. A spike in implied volatility sure helped preserve most of the value from Friday's close. No need to stay stubborn. I will just watch how things develop and hope to get an opportunity to re-establish my position at a much higher level...like even today's high.

    RIO is a huge chunk of rock for even mighty Glencore to swallow. But it will sure make it even easier for the major iron ore players to drive the market to ever lower levels in coming months and perhaps years.
    Oct 6 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto And The Iron Ore Version Of 'Dancing Until The Music Stops' [View article]
    That's why I focused on RIO. But once BHP executes its "de-merger" there will be a business left heavily focused on iron ore. Perhaps at the exact wrong time!
    Oct 6 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto And The Iron Ore Version Of 'Dancing Until The Music Stops' [View article]
    As I mentioned above, VALE should be able to survive the winnowing process, but I do not think they are as active as RIO and BHP in pursuing a strategy of flooding the market to push competitors out of business.
    Oct 6 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Negativity Accelerating, Time To Bet On CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling ETF [View article]
    Just as I was willing to except your initial fear of the pound rallying to 1.75 before peaking, I am definitely willing to be right on this call over the next month. :)
    Oct 6 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Negativity Accelerating, Time To Bet On CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling ETF [View article]
    I definitely expect the euro to keep weakening. I am like Robson on the pound, I fade all rallies until further notice.
    Oct 6 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Negativity Accelerating, Time To Bet On CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling ETF [View article]
    I still prefer to see a fundamental and notable turn in the data before getting as bearish as you are on the UK economy.

    The wrong call on the pound was fortunately very muted by the extreme weakness in the Japanese yen which I was using to hedge my call. It turned bearish after the referendum ended and was the better for it.

    So, I have basically decided to trade and not sit still for too long. I think the current negativity on the pound (and/or UK economy?) has gotten to a surprising extreme.
    Oct 6 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Negativity Accelerating, Time To Bet On CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling ETF [View article]
    Thanks for the additional info.
    Oct 6 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting A Rule-Based Buy On Hold With Risks Of Steeper Losses In The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF [View article]
    Wow! Sure didn't expect a run-off to result in EWZ soaring like this. Up 7.7% at time of writing from lows as the biggest move of the EEM ETFs. Ironically, the lows of this cycle were right at my typical 20% sell-off buy point. Lesson learned to ignore the news and follow the rules?!?
    Oct 6 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow-Trulia Moves Back To Its Pre-Deal Valuation As The Excitement Fades [View article]
    We can be pretty sure Murdoch has plans to beef up MOVE's competitive position. It is now yet one more risk that should be discounted from Zillow-Trulia. I am currently just looking for a technical bounce.
    Oct 5 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continued Sales Slowdown In Las Vegas Shines Spotlight On Acquisition By Century Communities [View article]
    Colorado is the prime market. CCS has acquired its way into Texas and Vegas. I am waiting for the next earnings report to see just how large of a presence (revenue and units) they have and plan to have in Vegas.

    The stock is indeed getting dirt cheap but I too hate the price action. Staying patient before accumulating more.
    Oct 2 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The Australian Dollar Just Bottom? [View article]
    LOL! Nice....
    Oct 2 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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