Seeking Alpha

Dr. Duru

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Dr. Duru's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • A Critical Breakdown For The British Pound [View article]
    50/50 essentially means anything can happen, which is not bearish except relative to about a month ago or so when the pound looked unstoppable. What have you observed that suggests growth has peaked?
    Aug 14 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Contrarian Plays In Housing [View article]
    Thanks for the quick write-up on UCP. I too have been accumulating shares for the same reasons. Amazingly cheap on a P/S and P/B basis, and little known...perfect contrarian play. I am watching closely though for the numbers when they do start to turn in a profit...
    Aug 9 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unemployment And Commodity Prices Are Working Against The Australian Dollar [View article]
    From their commentary, it does seem to me that the RBA has been expecting interest rates to rise in other major economies. And in turn expecting those rate hikes to push down the attractiveness of the Australian dollar. It is almost like a game of chicken...not sure how much longer the RBA can hold off another round of historic cuts....
    Aug 9 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Millennials Are Poised To Deliver The Next Critical Juncture For The Housing Market [View article]
    I agree a coiled spring is a bit away and is highly dependent on the labor market. In the shorter-term, rents are going to keep crimping budgets as supply struggles to keep up with demand. This is of course a typically perfect condition for buying a house, particularly as a protection against rental inflation. The JCHS paints a grim picture of living affordability for those at the lower income scales who are suffering BOTH from lower wages and higher rents. They are very much stuck.

    One group you did not mention are those younger folks who can afford a home mortgage but can't qualify for loans due to extremely tight under-writing standards. They too are trapped into paying higher rents which in turn further crimp their ability to save for a down payment.

    It is an on-going irony that in housing, cheaper does not necessarily equate to greater demand. Instead, the more expensive, the faster prices move up, the more people assume that housing is a must-buy. An inverse price-demand curve....
    Aug 8 02:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Millennials Are Poised To Deliver The Next Critical Juncture For The Housing Market [View article]
    Looks like the latest generation is getting called "Generation Z", surprise, surprise. (Makes me wonder whether the one after that is AA, AB, etc...). I assume a catch label gets defined when some of the idiosyncrasies, likes/dislikes/ behavioral patterns get clear enough. Probably not until the leading edge enters early adulthood.

    There is a lot to be said for defining generations around major economic events AND political events. I think the generations that lived through the first two world wars and Depression still hold the mantle for greatest earth-shattering moments relative to what came before.... I also think that the Baby Boomers have the clearest and most well-defined time range and identity of all these demographic labels.
    Aug 8 02:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Millennials Are Poised To Deliver The Next Critical Juncture For The Housing Market [View article]
    That is indeed another good demographic point. I assume the ranges stay static for convenience so that trends can be compared over time.
    Aug 8 02:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Volatile Cocktail: A Poor July Ahead Of The S&P 500's 'Most Dangerous' Months Of The Year [View article]
    Sure. I have uploaded it to my Google drive. Here is the link:

    http://bit.ly/XEoimq

    Download the file from there. It is called "JulyIsABuy.xlsx" and includes my analysis from the first article. I am eager to get any feedback you might have on improvements, additional twists to try, analytic techniques, etc... You can drop comments directly in the Google doc.
    Aug 6 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Volatile Cocktail: A Poor July Ahead Of The S&P 500's 'Most Dangerous' Months Of The Year [View article]
    That makes sense to me. I have been looking for some real-world linkages to some of the seasonality. In my previous piece on how July tends to be a stronger month of the year, I noted how I decided to look into it after seeing a report on how consumer discretionary tends to be an out-performer in the second half based on anticipation for the Christmas (they could have also noted back-to-school).
    Aug 6 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Volatile Cocktail: A Poor July Ahead Of The S&P 500's 'Most Dangerous' Months Of The Year [View article]
    I was not making a formal claim of statistical significance with the chart showing July's performance in years where the first 5 of 6 months were up. I was just showing the data as supportive of an assumption that July should be an up month. We of course do not know the true distribution of likelihoods here on the monthly basis. We can only make correlations (guesses ) based on historical frequency. For all we know, a reversion to the mean is underway...although making that argument would require some of its own evidence.
    Aug 6 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sneaking Out The Euro Amid A Swirl Of Financial Signals [View article]
    Thanks!

    I have heard/read that the biggest obstacle to large scale asset purchases is a lack of sufficient assets to buy within the eurozone. Draghi *could* look to the UK and conclude that asset purchases could help. But again, even if/when he does, it will be fascinating to see how the decisions get made on which country's assets get purchased. Seems like a huge mess no matter how it gets sliced....
    Aug 6 03:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Forget Your Joy (Global) [View article]
    For diversification, I definitely agree.

    You have me thinking that an even better proposal here is to draw up a pairs trade. Could be very profitable with volatility in the markets ramping up...
    Aug 5 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Millennials Are Poised To Deliver The Next Critical Juncture For The Housing Market [View article]
    Thank you for reading.

    1980-2000 sure makes a lot more sense for defining millennials. I am not sure why the various definitions are so loose from researcher to researcher. Perhaps it is a reflection of a bit of moving the needle to identify something unique about a generation. A lot of hype (and marketing) surrounds these generational archetypes.

    That aside, these studies seem to suggest that folks entering their 30s in the coming decade should exhibit notably different housing patterns than the folks in their 30s now (in aggregate, not micro-segmented for demographic characteristics of course).
    Aug 3 11:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow Tells The Market Not To Go Crazy Thinking About Valuations On Trulia Deal [View article]
    The thin float definitely adds a dimension of extra volatility to the stock. According to Yahoo! Finance though, major funds and institutions are the dominant holders here... http://yhoo.it/1qNbU0r
    Jul 31 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sneaking Out The Euro Amid A Swirl Of Financial Signals [View article]
    Thanks for the kudos. Interesting idea. I honestly just found FEZ in doing research for this piece. It makes a lot of sense to track it against other US-based indices/ETFs. If ECB liquidity makes into the "real" economy, it makes a lot of sense that European companies will buy up a lot of shares in lieu of investing in business and employees if the price/cost environment stays poor...
    Jul 24 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Roundtrip For The SPDR Gold Trust As Market Narrative Reverses On Fed's Inflation Stance [View article]
    Honestly, I have never thought to look up details on its insurance. Please do ping me directly if you find out more. Interesting...
    Jul 22 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,385 Comments
382 Likes