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Dr. Duru  

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  • The Swiss National Bank Delivers A Spirited Defense Of Manipulating The Swiss Franc [View article]
    I agree. I am definitely not faulting the SNB for the franc's strength. The SNB is doing everything it can to fight off the strength. The persistent desire to own francs is definitely coming from a combination of speculators and those who fear some bigger risk than parking cash in francs...
    Apr 8, 2015. 04:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss National Bank Delivers A Spirited Defense Of Manipulating The Swiss Franc [View article]
    Nice. I like that point!
    Apr 8, 2015. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • D. R. Horton Share Price Well Above Fair Value From Housing Starts [View article]
    I disagree on a causal implication for lumber. Homebuilders prefer lower lumber prices. It is very possible that drop in prices is from lower export demand with stronger dollar and weaker global growth. If you look closer at your chart, you will see periods of sharp divergence that require explanation before trusting in an overall 0.66 correlation.
    Apr 7, 2015. 06:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse: Signs of slowdown creeping in in Houston [View news story]
    That should have read "Just expectations." The caveat of a diverse Houston economy sounds like a major exception to the headline as well.
    Apr 6, 2015. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse: Signs of slowdown creeping in in Houston [View news story]
    And where exactly are the signs of the slowdown? There are no specifics here. S expectations based on time lags.
    Apr 6, 2015. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Rate Cut Pressure As Australian Dollar's Multi-Year Weakness Fails To Curb Trade Deficit [View article]
    Yes. I wrote about RIO earlier. They are clearly positioning the company to be as attractive to investors as possible. The buyback and defending the dividend are great examples. I also can't recall the avg price of the bought shares to-date.

    I almost thought RIO was going to pull it off when it was on the edge of breaking out above its 200-day moving average. After that failed, I went short again. Now, I am impressed with the resiliency in the face of on-going pressure on iron ore.
    Apr 3, 2015. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Rate Cut Pressure As Australian Dollar's Multi-Year Weakness Fails To Curb Trade Deficit [View article]
    I am bracing for just such a scenario. The path lower has been fraught with sharp relief rallies, so I try not to get overly bearish at any given time and I manage positions actively. 50c seems awfully low though! I was thinking more like 65c or so and only then on a big and swift swoosh lower than carves out a bottom.

    I wrote earlier about the RBA's bind given what now appears to be an incipient housing bubble in major cities. It is truly a difficult situation to manage even with macroprudential policies in place to try to limit speculation.
    Apr 3, 2015. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bullish Divergence For Homebuilders Could Signal Start Of Fresh Momentum [View article]
    Thanks for reading. Sounds like we are of similar minds.
    Apr 3, 2015. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iron ore sinks below $50, raising questions about big miners [View news story]
    The pressure for a rate cute is definitely intensifying, but it could also be the last one if the RBA agrees with the iron ore targets of analysts. Iron ore "should be" bottoming sooner than later: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 2, 2015. 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trying Not To Outsmart The Dollar Trend [View article]
    Thx!
    The collection of data seems to just bounce around without a convincing story to tell one way or the other. The most important interpretation is the Fed's and currently it remains optimistic enough to stay on the rate hike course of talk...
    Mar 31, 2015. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stamps.com - Investors Applaud The Purchase Of Endicia [View article]
    Thx for the reply...
    Mar 28, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stamps.com - Investors Applaud The Purchase Of Endicia [View article]
    Sounds like you are itching to issue a sell recommendation. :) At a minimum, the price now provides zero room for error. Since it seems the company must acquire growth, shouldn't we expect a stock issuance at some point?
    Mar 27, 2015. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Had To Happen - An Outright Call For Iron Ore Collusion [View article]
    When you put it that way, an export tax makes sense assuming the government believes that the resources will garner more value on a longer time horizon. But does the government have any better insight on that than anyone else?
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The IMF Promotes Policy Easing For Switzerland As Speculators Turn Bullish On The Franc [View article]
    That is indeed another good way to put it. Interestingly, this revival in Swiss franc strength has occurred while the euro has gone on a strong counter-trend rally. I wonder what will/can cause a new divergence in performance....
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • February New Home Sales Confirm Strong Sales Reports From Home Builders [View article]
    Thanks for the note! Yes - the headlines sound a lot better when they are negative about housing because a lot of deflationist psychology remains after all these years. And certainly the pain of the housing bust remains as fresh as ever for many. Moreover, housing is still not anywhere close to performing as one would expect in a housing recovery....and of course those of us trying to hold onto the bull by the tail see this as the nice upside opportunity over the horizon...
    Mar 25, 2015. 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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