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Dr. Duru  

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  • The Bank Of England Will Act - It's Time To Short The Pound [View article]
    Well, I enjoy you are trying to look for the contrary loophole in the consensus view. I just listened to a podcast (Hard Currency) where once again the analyst talked about the "race" between the BoE and the Fed for starting rate hikes. Carney's commentary this week has generally been seen as firming up further the rate hike story by end of this year...
    Jul 17, 2015. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Positions To Stay In The Euro At Any Cost [View article]
    I think Iceland is a great example. And like the Icelandic people, the Greek people seemed prepared to default and take the pain now. The politicians have weakened. Your post is a reminder to me that I need to read a comprehensive history on how Iceland righted its ship. Any recommended sources?
    Jul 16, 2015. 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bank Of England Will Act - It's Time To Short The Pound [View article]
    Your opinion stands in direct contrast to what I thought was an increasing sense that the Bank of England would act to RAISE rates soon. The BoE has said earlier it is looking past this drop in inflation and has neatly explained the temporary factors behind it. Why do you not believe the factors behind low inflation are temporary and why should the BoE act contrary to what is an overall strengthening in the economy?
    Jul 15, 2015. 02:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Positions To Stay In The Euro At Any Cost [View article]
    Agreed. Amazing how this issue has simply been kicked and kicked and kicked down the road all the while pretending another solution will emerge...
    Jul 14, 2015. 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Positions To Stay In The Euro At Any Cost [View article]
    Called the bluff big time. Very embarrassing for Tsipras.
    Jul 14, 2015. 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale’s "cut" not likely to improve iron ore prices [View news story]
    This was all clear in VALE's original statement. I am surprised the original reporting did not catch this. It shouldn't have taken the major analyst houses to point this out. The price action is now mainly sentiment driven and is really jittery....
    Jul 14, 2015. 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shrinking Australian Dollar [View article]
    Definitely stick to your knitting and your comfortzone. But I STILL like buying USD/JPY on dips. Just sold my latest trade on that. The interest in "Safety" in the yen will eventually end, and when it does, the yen should resume its prior weakness with a vengeance. In the meantime, I focus on "singles and doubles." ON a chart basis, USD/JPY is at a critical juncture now that it has completely reversed the last big breakout to multi-year highs (see May 26th).
    Jul 10, 2015. 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shrinking Australian Dollar [View article]
    Chinese investment in Australian real estate has been a hot topic for a while. It will be interesting to see whether decreasing liquidity in Chinese markets will make wealthy Chinese MORE interested in parking their money overseas in more stable places like Australia. Perhaps the Chinese government will eventually establish controls on such investments as well.
    Jul 10, 2015. 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shrinking Australian Dollar [View article]
    Not yet ready to throw up the deflation flag, but, yes, China's pullback is pressuring everything related downward.
    Jul 10, 2015. 01:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shrinking Australian Dollar [View article]
    And I have an obvious addendum - with iron ore sinking 10% today, the outlook just got even bleaker...

    http://bloom.bg/1D1kIkk
    Jul 8, 2015. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Australian Dollar Stabilizes In The Wake Of A Copy And Paste Monetary Decision [View article]
    Thanks for the detail on NZD. I don't follow the market there at all.

    I think you are correct to at least be suspicious. The central banks are probably more nervous than we are, and it will lead to some unexpected and/or bizarre behaviors down the road. How else can we explain, for example, the on-going warnings about markets taking on too much risk and exhibiting too little volatility on one hand, and then on the other hand working fast to calm volatility and reassure markets whenever the slightest thing is awry. It is a recipe for bouncing off the walls! :)
    Jul 8, 2015. 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Australian Dollar Stabilizes In The Wake Of A Copy And Paste Monetary Decision [View article]
    I should have! But I thought I could bide time with my hedges. As I wrote here: http://seekingalpha.co..., I never fully accounted for the impact of the on-going worsening financial drama in China. The lack of response to all those rate cuts in China was a telling sign.
    Jul 8, 2015. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar stocks off sharply after oil plunge, Greek "no" vote, Chinese tech selloff [View news story]
    Instead of implying there really is a correlation between solar and oil, how about just titling this a sell-off in the energy sector?
    Jul 6, 2015. 04:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit As The Spread Widens Between The U.S. Dollar And Turkish Lira [View article]
    The Turkish lira is already at historically weak levels against the U.S. dollar. I assume you are saying that more records are to come?

    I also noted that your Fed Watch pie chart seems dated with forecasts included for the past 9 months. For an update, you can see my piece here: http://seekingalpha.co...

    Finally, I am not sure why a mobile company will necessarily be hurt by the forces you mention. Will people actually cut off their cell phone service if economic conditions deteriorate? Are there options for going minimal whereas now many are still buying premium packages, etc...? Looking at the chart for TKC, I see a trading range developing over the past few months that could be the basis for a bottom. So perhaps TUR is the better (meaning more efficient/effective), less risky, way to short Turkish equities if a trader chooses to go that route.
    Jul 6, 2015. 10:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be A Contrarian And Buy The Australian Dollar [View article]
    I would have to agree here. If Australia is indeed entering its first recession in 25 years at a time that is counter other major economies like UK and the US, then you have to expect a lot more downside in the currency. Moreover, it is best to take into account what is happening on the US side of the ledger. Part of the big move down is the policy divergence between the US and Australia.

    So, I appreciate the attempt at a contrarian perspective, but I think after connecting the dots, it is hard to take a long-term bullish perspective until at least some more positive nuggets show up. For forex, I prefer a shorter-term perspective since things change so rapidly (with SOME exceptions). I think AUD/USD is oversold in the short-term, and am playing it that way. Beyond that, I hesitate to make any prognostication.
    Jul 6, 2015. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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