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Dr. Duru

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  • An Unexpected Drop In Leasing Velocity Helps Reset RealPage [View article]
    RP is up big in just 2 days of a post-recovery bounce. 15% from the lows. I didn't expect gains this large, this fast! I might have to take the profits off the table on Friday (Feb 28) and go back into watch mode on this one!
    Feb 27 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market May Be Starting To Crash [View article]
    So it seems to me that bears and bulls can see what they want to see because there are enough data to fill in anyone's blanks. The public builders are doing the right thing now. They are not trying to sell homes to everyone, everywhere, and anytime. They are about picking their targets. As long as they are focused in the places where the economic fundamentals are sound, and there are plenty of them now, I am betting with them.
    Feb 27 06:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilder ETF Surges To New 52-Week High [View article]
    I agree. Looks like the breakout we anticipated has arrived.The chart is also poetry in motion.
    Feb 27 12:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Unexpected Drop In Leasing Velocity Helps Reset RealPage [View article]
    That is a pretty good explanation that matches a manager's more pessimistic view of the near-term future. But if the rent environment is as tight as RP thinks it is, managers really should be going for higher rents. But, yes, based on their actions, the rental market can't be quite as hot or as good as RP thinks?
    Feb 27 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exactly Nowhere For The U.S. Dollar, Year-To-Date Hides Some Subtle Signals [View article]
    Thanks for reading!

    I agree about the Fed's interventions to help prop up the economy through lower rates. But they are not directly targeting the currency, not yet. I imagine the Fed would prefer a much weaker dollar, not a stronger one, as every major economy is hoping for some rebalancing away from imports and toward exports and domestic industry/demand. The timing of the next disruption will be very tricky. Just need to stay on top of the charts....
    Feb 25 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exactly Nowhere For The U.S. Dollar, Year-To-Date Hides Some Subtle Signals [View article]
    I am still (stubbornly) expecting SSO to decline in the short-term. See here for more details: http://bit.ly/1pmTVKC

    If my theory is correct, a sustained sell-off will feature the dollar breaking support (and presumably some kind of poor economic data point from the US). But, so far, I can't aggressively bet that way. As I noted, I am no longer looking specifically at correlation but instead confirmation. So, if SSO dips without the dollar breaking support, I will assume it is another shallow trip downward. Should be interesting.

    I have been long gold a long time and was in TIP. But TIP more or less follows things like TLT, so I haven't felt compelled to stay in it long. I wrote about gold earlier expecting a new wave downward to get me more gold at cheaper prices. Instead, it has had a nice rally!
    Feb 25 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunistically Invest In Cocoa [View article]
    Thanks for those bullet points. I am indeed in waiting mode right now... I honestly have tried to read through the commitments of traders report before (I assume you mean the public from the CFTC?), but find it incredibly hard to decipher. For example, having some trend data would be very helpful to know whether these traders (and which types of traders) are truly impacting the market. Do you know a good source for getting a time series?
    Feb 25 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunistically Invest In Cocoa [View article]
    I am looking forward to following the cocoa market (and NIB and CHOC) more closely going forward!
    Feb 25 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunistically Invest In Cocoa [View article]
    I am looking forward to following the cocoa market (and NIB and CHOC) more closely going forward!
    Feb 25 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: Veolia could oust CEO [View news story]
    I missed that news being in the U.S. Can you serve up a good link for more info on that?
    Feb 24 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Drop In The Housing Market Index Ends Upward Momentum Of The Recovery, Delays Spring Sunshine [View article]
    The ITB calls I bought after writing this, increase by almost 50% the next day so I had to sell them. The breakout is, surprisingly enough, still intact.
    Feb 23 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: Veolia could oust CEO [View news story]
    The Bloomberg article is not clear and people are not supposed to be talking about it - so very possible this is mainly a political battle.
    Feb 23 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Investment Firm Tries To Nail The (All-Time) Bottom In RadioShack [View article]
    Looks like they have at least enough cash for over a year, maybe two? Plus plenty of credit lines.

    Cash and equivalents was $546.1M in Sept 2012, $535.7M in Dec 2012, $316.4 in Sept 2013. Looks like cash dropped bigtime because RSH repaid $214M remaining aggregate principal balance of the 2013 Convertible Notes at maturity. The remaining debt does not mature until 2016 to 2019.

    Seems like RSH has time and room to stage one last attempt at a comeback.

    Earnings report next month should be interesting to see whether liquidity has indeed remained stable.
    Feb 23 03:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading The Ranges In M.D.C. Holdings And Tri-Pointe Homes [View article]
    I agree. Great stuff. Good balance of reminding us of the underlying fundamental strength with the caveats of the various headwinds. Convinced me to start nibbling on MDC here. I am surprised there hasn't been a deeper drop in home builder stocks to-date, so I can only imagine how strong the breakout will be when (if?) some of these headwinds finally lift.
    Feb 19 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Chance To Buy Corn At A Potential Bottom [View article]
    Thanks or the comment (and reminder!). I have been watching what I think is a base forming, but didn't dare believe for fear of being called twice crazy. Interestingly, several ag commodities have been rallying well in 2014.

    I am also reminded I am long overdue for a mea culpa piece, but maybe my comments here have been sufficient... :)
    Feb 17 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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