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Dr. Duru  

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  • The High Stakes Ahead For Tightening Monetary Policy [View article]
    Glad to hear someone agrees. :)
    Feb 10, 2015. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Solar Attempt To Bottom Together - The Relationship Ends There [View article]
    I think bouncing back and forth is the most likely path for this year. And, yes, traders would love to have well-defined ranges to trade long and short.

    Note that Citi just reached for the award of most bearish analyst around: predicting market dynamics could send oil to $20 before a bottom hits.
    Feb 9, 2015. 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Shock Increases Uncertainty And Reduces Confidence In Switzerland [View article]
    Agreed. Forecasts are already predicting a potential recession this year partly as a result of the over-valued currency.
    Feb 9, 2015. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Shock Increases Uncertainty And Reduces Confidence In Switzerland [View article]
    The SNB does not want that safe haven status and given its apparent on-going tinkering in the currency market, I am willing to bet for now that the franc has seen its peak. Just a matter of picking the currency. I am avoiding EUR/CHF....
    Feb 9, 2015. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Shock Increases Uncertainty And Reduces Confidence In Switzerland [View article]
    On confidence, I am reporting out the data rather than my opinion. I am willing to accept this is a blip in confidence if the data demonstrate that in coming months.

    The SNB perhaps had no choice but to let go of the peg. SNB head Jordan said as much recently. Maintaining the peg in the face of ECB QE was going to get too expensive. In an earlier piece I argued that given the SNB had a scenario where it would unceremoniously and unexpectedly drop the peg, perhaps establishing the peg in the first place was the real mistake. It is of course easy to say all this with hindsight. Regardless, my read is that the SNB did not think the markets would react as violently as they did. Seeing the Swiss franc gradually weaken since that initial shock makes me think the market was too surprised to react in an "orderly" fashion. It will be interesting to see how the SNB's reserves change going forward assuming folks like the Reserve Bank of australia are correct that the SNB is back to intervening on behalf of weakening the franc.
    Feb 9, 2015. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strong Headline Labor Force Survey Fails To Boost The Canadian Dollar [View article]
    Correct. That was part of my point - the headline number was driven by an extraordinarily high number of part-time (and self-employed) workers.
    Feb 9, 2015. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Canadian Dollar Slips On An Oil-Slicked November GDP [View article]
    The yield on US or Canadian bonds?

    For other readers, I am waiting for the US and Canada jobs reports to make follow-up commentary. The very next day after this post the Canadian dollar had a tremendous relief rally that followed the commodity complex.
    Feb 4, 2015. 11:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Good Time To Stop Shorting The Euro [View article]
    The situation with Greece will unfold over time and cause an extra source of risk for trading the euro. Definitely have to be careful. I hope to write another post soon arguing that it is best to just wait until the euro trades either at or above the ECB QE point around 1.16 or for fresh lows. In between should be a LOT of chop. Hedged plays can make sense in the chop as well.
    Feb 4, 2015. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Up To Weaken The Australian Dollar: The Statement On Monetary Policy [View article]
    The market is already changing before the ink is even dry. As usual, I had to lock up my profits after the big move and wait out the next bounce to fade. Even as my head is spinning from the dramatic pounding in the US dollar and soaring commodities as I type, I tentatively rebuilding short positions. The Statement on Monetary Policy will become a much larger decision point than I expected. I also forgot to note that a retails sales report is coming Wednesday.
    Feb 3, 2015. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Shock Drives Currency 'Relief Efforts' Across Many Borders [View article]
    Such rumors will make the next statement on reserves a VERY interesting read! I was reading that the SNB is going for a basket of currencies this time with lots of US dollars. It probably wants to bet where it thinks currencies may actually go up against the franc. Based on the action in the euro at the time of writing (response to Greece agreeing to work with the ECB), the euro may have finally stopped going down for a while. That SHOULD help the SNB.
    Feb 3, 2015. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Shock Drives Currency 'Relief Efforts' Across Many Borders [View article]
    Yes. If the SNB had its way, removing the EUR/CHF floor would not have caused such an extreme show of strength in the Swiss franc. At the end of the SNB statement that removed the artificial floor, the SNB made a vague "threat" that it might still intervene in currency markets if the franc shows too much strength (I provided a link to that statement where I referenced it). The statement suggests even the Bank may have been surprised by the "Swiss franc shock."
    Feb 3, 2015. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Up To Weaken The Australian Dollar: The Statement On Monetary Policy [View article]
    The momentum in stocks has ended with the end of QE. The market is looking for its next catalyst. It IS notable that ECB QE, China surprise rate cut, and Japan turbo-boost QE have all failed to renew momentum in (US) stocks. Something to watch definitely...
    Feb 3, 2015. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Up To Weaken The Australian Dollar: The Statement On Monetary Policy [View article]
    Where did you find that information? It was not in yesterday's statement. That is a valuable nugget and sorry I missed it.
    Feb 3, 2015. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil drops as U.S. refinery strike continues [View news story]
    Exactly. If anything happens as a result of the strike, gasoline prices should go up and oil prices go down. The oil will just pile up for lack of refinery demand and gas prices go up as there less refined product to go around. This all probably still at the margins unless massive amounts of refining capacity get taken completely off-line.
    Feb 2, 2015. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FXCM Reports An Account Loss Of 3%, Leucadia Tightens Its Grip On The Company [View article]
    LUK is definitely in the driver's seat....and they are highly motivated to see a healthy FXCM.
    Jan 31, 2015. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,626 Comments
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