Why The VIX Is No Market Indicator Right Now [View article]
I am not so focused on the VIX itself but the tightness of the lags in any apparent feedback loops across Japan - Australia - US. Right now, the steep decline in the Aussie dollar and stock market is also not phasing U.S. investors although in the past this has been a great leading indicator for the S&P 500.
I see the action in Japan and Australia as signs that some kind of top across major markets is in place. We may not (and should not) crash in the U.S., but upside seems capped by recent highs now. I do like buying any steep declines though in the U.S.
Baby Boomers Are Not Likely To Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Part 1) [View article]
That's a great concept. I like it. I was wondering the same thing you are when I read hand-wringing over the inability of selling what can be 40-60 year old homes to a younger generation. Almost all the models I have read so far assume that 100% of these homes are perfectly fine for selling. The one exception is a model that includes transaction costs where transaction costs include some form of maintenance to get a home ready for selling and/or upgrade/upkeep after buying an existing home.
Plunging Iron Ore Underlines Coming Monetary Policy From The Reserve Bank Of Australia [View article]
As I stated, I was bearish and am still overall bearish until the data/trend change. Check earlier posts for reference. I am now positioned for a short-term trade, anticipating a relief bounce, by scaling back most of my bearish position. If the bounce does not happen, I will be fine. Regardless of what happens, I will not stay net long unless there is some big surprise that changes my mind (and I will write about it). I am managing risks, and my remaining positions are VERY small.
I also did not predict AUDUSD would or could fall all the way to 0.6 to 0.62. I stated a rough guess at 0.87 to 0.82 in an extreme sell-off scenario.
Baby Boomers Are Not Likely To Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Part 1) [View article]
American Public Media's business segment on Friday just happened to provide some (incomplete) info on retirees living outside of the U.S. 50,000 Americans in Cost Rica, "many" of them retirees. The # of Americans in Costa Rica collecting social security checks has risen 62% since 2002. Not sure why they cherry picked, but that's what they gave. But clearly the data are out there....
The segment included one horror story and one story of a hopeful retiree getting ready to move from Phoenix. Interestingly, in both cases, the retirees used up their entire life savings to buy property in Costa Rica. Nothing about selling a U.S. home to buy a Costa Rica home.
A Very Large Tree Is Falling In The Stock Market Forest [View article]
Australian dollar and iron ore prices are also plummeting sharply over this time. These two have good leading indicators since the crisis.
I suspect for lumber, the lower prices will trigger a lot of buying if economic activity justifies it. So, perhaps it will take another month or more before we know whether lumber is saying anything about the housing market.
I think existing homes are roughly 85% of all home sales in the U.S.....almost no new lumber needed.
Baby Boomers Are Not Likely To Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Part 1) [View article]
Thank you everyone for all the comments and suggestions (including those who sent me direct messages)! I hope to get a part 2 out in another week or two, but it sounds like this is something that could be a periodic series. Something like "Boom Watch". :)
Baby Boomers Are Not Likely To Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Part 1) [View article]
Interesting! (I also have not heard of Del Webb before. Will have to look them up). But this is the kind of economic opportunity that gets created when major demographic shifts happen.
Baby Boomers Are Not Likely To Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Part 1) [View article]
I agree with BennyProfane. Retirees moving to another country are also separating themselves from a familiar support network and family. That is a TOUGH choice to make when you are getting to an age where those things might matter the most. If I find some stats, I will try to work them into a future article.
Baby Boomers Are Not Likely To Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Part 1) [View article]
And for those young people who choose to stay in homes, there is likely no price that sellers are willing to mark down to get them to move. Even in this last housing crash, we saw how sticky prices can be. Mainly people forced into foreclosure were selling at rock bottom prices. Homebuiders stopped building. People altered life plans and choices before selling into a cratered market.
In other words, i think natural brakes exist that will prevent the generational transfer from being the next housing crisis. I agree it won't look pretty if the general economic prospects of younger people do not materially change, especially for those without college degrees in hot fields like technology and medicine.
Baby Boomers Are Not Likely To Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Part 1) [View article]
That is also my gut feeling. I will see what I can conjure up but you may be pushing me into a part 3! The data from the pieces I reference do not quite get us there for the chart you are thinking of.
Credit Conditions For Housing Continue To Tighten [View article]
I suspect those 3% down deals are only going to the very cream of the market. And if so, then yes, it does not make sense that FNMA/FRE is offering them. Or perhaps they shouldn't be offering them period to anyone!?
Credit Conditions For Housing Continue To Tighten [View article]
I was educated on the problem with the self-employed qualifying for mortgage loans. The CEO of the mortgage investment company I referred to was having trouble getting a home equity loan given the structure of his employment. His story is rich in irony.
Lender Processing Services Completes Its Rise From 'Foreclosuregate' [View article]
It is hard to say until there is an official deal finalized. I would imagine that even if we get the official word soon, the deal will not close for several months. It will be a close call for your September cut-off. I can't be sure of tax implications, but if you are given shares of FNF in exchange for LPS, then a taxable event should NOT be triggered. Again, I am not speaking as a certified tax professional. This is my best guess from prior experience. Either way, LPS as a ticket symbol will cease to exist.
A Canary In Real Estate's Coal Mine [View article]
This article is missing some charts to make the claimed relationships plain. More historical perspective would help as well. From the title, I thought I was going to get an understanding of how the real estate market is potential in peril but instead this was mostly about the general stock market. What is the conclusion you are drawing for the real estate market?
You also seem disturbed that the stock market is rising despite past lackluster numbers and that central bank liquidity is the primary driver. However, if market participants believe that liquidity makes the future look brighter, then the stock market's rise is perfectly rational (even if the premise is debatable). Oddly enough, you begin by suggesting that the stock market is good at pricing in future events. So why specifically do you think the stock market is getting it wrong this time? All the peaks you noted are well behind us now. Were the sellers at THAT time wrong or right?
Why The VIX Is No Market Indicator Right Now [View article]
I see the action in Japan and Australia as signs that some kind of top across major markets is in place. We may not (and should not) crash in the U.S., but upside seems capped by recent highs now. I do like buying any steep declines though in the U.S.
Baby Boomers Are Not Likely To Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Part 1) [View article]
Plunging Iron Ore Underlines Coming Monetary Policy From The Reserve Bank Of Australia [View article]
I also did not predict AUDUSD would or could fall all the way to 0.6 to 0.62. I stated a rough guess at 0.87 to 0.82 in an extreme sell-off scenario.
Baby Boomers Are Not Likely To Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Part 1) [View article]
The segment included one horror story and one story of a hopeful retiree getting ready to move from Phoenix. Interestingly, in both cases, the retirees used up their entire life savings to buy property in Costa Rica. Nothing about selling a U.S. home to buy a Costa Rica home.
This Month Of May Is Not Likely To Hurt - Just In Case, Some Hedging Ideas [View article]
A Very Large Tree Is Falling In The Stock Market Forest [View article]
I suspect for lumber, the lower prices will trigger a lot of buying if economic activity justifies it. So, perhaps it will take another month or more before we know whether lumber is saying anything about the housing market.
I think existing homes are roughly 85% of all home sales in the U.S.....almost no new lumber needed.
Baby Boomers Are Not Likely To Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Part 1) [View article]
Baby Boomers Are Not Likely To Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Part 1) [View article]
Baby Boomers Are Not Likely To Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Part 1) [View article]
Baby Boomers Are Not Likely To Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Part 1) [View article]
In other words, i think natural brakes exist that will prevent the generational transfer from being the next housing crisis. I agree it won't look pretty if the general economic prospects of younger people do not materially change, especially for those without college degrees in hot fields like technology and medicine.
Baby Boomers Are Not Likely To Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Part 1) [View article]
Credit Conditions For Housing Continue To Tighten [View article]
Credit Conditions For Housing Continue To Tighten [View article]
Lender Processing Services Completes Its Rise From 'Foreclosuregate' [View article]
Either way, LPS as a ticket symbol will cease to exist.
A Canary In Real Estate's Coal Mine [View article]
You also seem disturbed that the stock market is rising despite past lackluster numbers and that central bank liquidity is the primary driver. However, if market participants believe that liquidity makes the future look brighter, then the stock market's rise is perfectly rational (even if the premise is debatable). Oddly enough, you begin by suggesting that the stock market is good at pricing in future events. So why specifically do you think the stock market is getting it wrong this time? All the peaks you noted are well behind us now. Were the sellers at THAT time wrong or right?