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Dr. Duru

 
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  • Millennials Are Poised To Deliver The Next Critical Juncture For The Housing Market [View article]
    That is indeed another good demographic point. I assume the ranges stay static for convenience so that trends can be compared over time.
    Aug 8 02:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Volatile Cocktail: A Poor July Ahead Of The S&P 500's 'Most Dangerous' Months Of The Year [View article]
    Sure. I have uploaded it to my Google drive. Here is the link:

    http://bit.ly/XEoimq

    Download the file from there. It is called "JulyIsABuy.xlsx" and includes my analysis from the first article. I am eager to get any feedback you might have on improvements, additional twists to try, analytic techniques, etc... You can drop comments directly in the Google doc.
    Aug 6 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Volatile Cocktail: A Poor July Ahead Of The S&P 500's 'Most Dangerous' Months Of The Year [View article]
    That makes sense to me. I have been looking for some real-world linkages to some of the seasonality. In my previous piece on how July tends to be a stronger month of the year, I noted how I decided to look into it after seeing a report on how consumer discretionary tends to be an out-performer in the second half based on anticipation for the Christmas (they could have also noted back-to-school).
    Aug 6 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Volatile Cocktail: A Poor July Ahead Of The S&P 500's 'Most Dangerous' Months Of The Year [View article]
    I was not making a formal claim of statistical significance with the chart showing July's performance in years where the first 5 of 6 months were up. I was just showing the data as supportive of an assumption that July should be an up month. We of course do not know the true distribution of likelihoods here on the monthly basis. We can only make correlations (guesses ) based on historical frequency. For all we know, a reversion to the mean is underway...although making that argument would require some of its own evidence.
    Aug 6 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sneaking Out The Euro Amid A Swirl Of Financial Signals [View article]
    Thanks!

    I have heard/read that the biggest obstacle to large scale asset purchases is a lack of sufficient assets to buy within the eurozone. Draghi *could* look to the UK and conclude that asset purchases could help. But again, even if/when he does, it will be fascinating to see how the decisions get made on which country's assets get purchased. Seems like a huge mess no matter how it gets sliced....
    Aug 6 03:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Forget Your Joy (Global) [View article]
    For diversification, I definitely agree.

    You have me thinking that an even better proposal here is to draw up a pairs trade. Could be very profitable with volatility in the markets ramping up...
    Aug 5 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Millennials Are Poised To Deliver The Next Critical Juncture For The Housing Market [View article]
    Thank you for reading.

    1980-2000 sure makes a lot more sense for defining millennials. I am not sure why the various definitions are so loose from researcher to researcher. Perhaps it is a reflection of a bit of moving the needle to identify something unique about a generation. A lot of hype (and marketing) surrounds these generational archetypes.

    That aside, these studies seem to suggest that folks entering their 30s in the coming decade should exhibit notably different housing patterns than the folks in their 30s now (in aggregate, not micro-segmented for demographic characteristics of course).
    Aug 3 11:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow Tells The Market Not To Go Crazy Thinking About Valuations On Trulia Deal [View article]
    The thin float definitely adds a dimension of extra volatility to the stock. According to Yahoo! Finance though, major funds and institutions are the dominant holders here... http://yhoo.it/1qNbU0r
    Jul 31 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sneaking Out The Euro Amid A Swirl Of Financial Signals [View article]
    Thanks for the kudos. Interesting idea. I honestly just found FEZ in doing research for this piece. It makes a lot of sense to track it against other US-based indices/ETFs. If ECB liquidity makes into the "real" economy, it makes a lot of sense that European companies will buy up a lot of shares in lieu of investing in business and employees if the price/cost environment stays poor...
    Jul 24 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Roundtrip For The SPDR Gold Trust As Market Narrative Reverses On Fed's Inflation Stance [View article]
    Honestly, I have never thought to look up details on its insurance. Please do ping me directly if you find out more. Interesting...
    Jul 22 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Roundtrip For The SPDR Gold Trust As Market Narrative Reverses On Fed's Inflation Stance [View article]
    As i commented in my last piece on this, I think at least 2014's price action implies 2013 printed a lasting bottom for GLD. The stuff with Google Trends is strictly short-term, and I continue to be fascinated with how well the current model works.
    Jul 22 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insurance Policies For Financial Stability: The UK Tightens Housing Policies And Further Tunes Its Warnings [View article]
    They could still do that *once* the tightening cycle begins. Clearly, Carney is the only one of the big central bankers with the stomach for it given he raised rates slightly in Canada without causing a panic. But of course Canada did not suffer nearly as much as the UK, US, or Europe during the financial crisis. Now, it looks like everyone can look nervously to the UK to see whether Carney can pull it off again under different circumstances.
    Jul 21 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RealPage Disappoints As Company Remains Unable To Benefit From Tight Rental Markets [View article]
    Thanks for the additional perspective. I had not thought of RP from the M&A perspective. I agree with you that if execution is the main problem here, then a bigger player will likely step in, buy this company on the cheap, and greatly improve the execution metrics.

    So you have changed my opinion from being so bearish. Thanks!
    Jul 20 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Uses Small-Cap, Social Media Stocks To Display Vigilance On Valuations [View article]
    So far, looks like the Fed scare tactic is working like a scalpel on small caps and the like. I have to believe though that a snapback for small caps is around the corner. So many Fed-inspired moves get an opposite reaction of similar magnitude.Time will tell.
    Jul 18 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Type Two Errors & Stock Market Corrections [View article]
    I agree with the last three comments above. Even the title is misleading. I thought this piece might be some generalized theory on how investors/traders commit type 2 errors ahead of a stock market correction. So I wondered, what type 2 errors could they be...?
    Jul 13 01:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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