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Dr. Duru  

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  • If This Is A True Sell-Off In Biotech... [View article]
    Look at daily and hourly on IBB. Plenty of selling volume. In fact, daily selling volume has far out-weighed buying volume over the past month. Today, there was a surge in selling volume in the first hour. Looking back now on the subsequent bounce, THAT looked like a potential washout. But only time will tell.
    Apr 28, 2015. 07:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Trade The Change In Narrative And Momentum For Iron Ore [View article]
    The Chinese are definitely committed to preventing market capture by the majors. In the meantime, stockpiling iron ore on the cheap is also helps keep their steel mills in better shape. I am sure it is an on-going tension amongst the central planners...
    Apr 28, 2015. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Trade The Change In Narrative And Momentum For Iron Ore [View article]
    Clarification on VALE position: this is the remnant of a previously mistimed bet that was more about Brazil and did not take full account of what was happening with iron ore. I *might* finally add to the position on a pullback, but definitely will not chase it higher if the run-up continues from current levels.
    Apr 27, 2015. 12:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto Plays Its Part In The Supply Glut; Mr. Market Is Over-Optimistic [View article]
    Thanks for the info. I was looking and looking and looking...! :) I think it is premature to connect those dots. BHP will certainly still strive to achieve its long-term targets and its increased efficiency shows it has the ability to do so.
    Apr 26, 2015. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RBA Governor Stevens Talks Risks As The Australian Dollar Again Fails To Respond To China Accommodation [View article]
    Thanks for reminding me of this timeline. It is actually not too far off from the ECB's premature rate hike. But at least Australia has more or less strong economic fundamentals to stay resilient in the face of central banking adventures.

    I take stock of Stevens not for the economic forecasting but more for the potential impact on the Australian dollar and how to trade it.
    Apr 24, 2015. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP And Rio Have Changed Little For Iron Ore Except The Slope Of The Path Downward [View article]
    I fully agree. Note I have a hedged position: calls and puts. Specifically, I wrote a piece earlier providing a partial timeline of the rumor/talk of a Glencore acquisition of Rio. That alone made me decide to hedge the bets.

    Regardless, this trade is definitely not one to chase to the downside, much better to fade premature enthusiasm for the bottom.
    Apr 24, 2015. 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto Plays Its Part In The Supply Glut; Mr. Market Is Over-Optimistic [View article]
    Well said. I happen to have a related article that SA will release soon. One question - where are folks getting the info on BHP 2017 adjusted volumes? I didn't see it in the production report. Not sure how I missed it...
    Apr 24, 2015. 02:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanity Prevails: BHP Billiton Stops Hurting Itself [View article]
    Your piece missed the demand side of the story. The companies were not just battling to kill each other. They, along with Vale, the biggest producer, and even smaller ones like Fortescue all assumed China's insatiable demand would extend for a long stretch of time. The capacity expansions and ramp in production made perfect sense in that context. Now, those investments need to be monetized. In the case of heavily indebted Fortescue, they must produce or else be left unable to service debt.

    So, I strongly suspect the spike in iron ore was just quick-trigger short covering. Very little of the fundamentals have changed even as investor outlook may have changed for the better...which could be enough to keep the stock prices afloat even if iron ore begins its descent anew...
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pent-Up Housing Demand Meets Reticent Supply: A Focus On Oakland, CA [View article]
    More supply, especially in affordable areas of the Bay Area, would go a long way to offering more home ownership opportunities. However, I am writing here about the people who CAN afford homes but are shut out because there is no inventory to buy (or at least the inventory they want). Oakland's one-month of supply is not healthy.

    The lack of housing supply is also helping to drive rents sky high...
    Apr 22, 2015. 01:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RBA Governor Stevens Talks Risks As The Australian Dollar Again Fails To Respond To China Accommodation [View article]
    And thanks for reading...
    Apr 21, 2015. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Employment Gains In Australia Translate Into A Firmer Bottom For The Australian Dollar [View article]
    And thank you for reading!
    Apr 19, 2015. 01:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilder Update: Mixed Trading As Lukewarm Starts Reverse Good Sentiment Cheer [View article]
    Very true! We writers do sometimes feel a rush to comment on the latest news before it becomes stale. In this case, I wanted to put some perspective on the lukewarm starts. Unlike previous posts, I did not feel like I had enough to speculate on sales except to reference earlier posts on home builder earnings.
    Apr 16, 2015. 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Start Buying Canada [View article]
    Thx. 1.24 is probably one of the most watched technical lines in forex. Maybe second only to 120 for USD/JPY!
    Apr 16, 2015. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Start Buying Canada [View article]
    My expectation is an new trading range. IF, and this is a BIG if, Canada's economic numbers continue to strengthen and/or the Fed makes it clear a rate hike is off the table for 2015, USD/CAD could drop toward 1.10 very fast. I plan to be OUT my long USD/CAD well ahead of such a prospect as I have a very tight stop on what SHOULD be my last long USD/CAD position for a very long time.
    Apr 16, 2015. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China May Drop The Next Shoe On Iron Ore [View article]
    Yes - I am currently most interested in RIO given its concentration in iron ore. The story certainly changes significantly if other commodities suddenly rise. Of course, such an event will make RIO an even more fierce competitor in iron ore. Support around $40 is holding tough and the stock seems more and more detached from the spot price changes. I assume that means a lot of investors are pricing in a much better future somewhere around the corner...
    Apr 12, 2015. 12:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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