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Dr. Duru

 
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  • Struggling To Understand The Resilience Of The Australian Dollar [View article]
    I was wondering too why he thought taking into account rate spreads couldn't explain the on-going attraction of the Australian dollar. But I guess he is making a strong assumption that the differential is not enough to compensate for the downside risks.

    Stevens definitely seems to be on the side of "only act when/if absolutely necessary." With unemployment rising, the RBA probably doesn't want to do anything that acts against economic activity. I haven't seen the RBA talk seriously about macro-prudential policies, so could be a very long time before that gets on the table!

    You know, this reminds me that there is a study posted on the RBA site on Australian housing prices...asking whether there is a bubble. I have yet to scan through it. I really need to...but it is massive study, and I have not had the time to dare to jump in.
    Aug 25 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar Is Stretched, But Will It Correct? [View article]
    So I take it that you are leaning toward the dollar NOT correcting?

    As far as the over-hype about the Fed missing the boat on inflation, that ready acceptance of that claim seems very consistent with the stubborn strength of the Australian dollar despite said declines in commodities... However, wouldn't the US dollar decline if the market truly believed the Fed was ready to stand aside and allow inflation to run wild...?
    Aug 25 01:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Rides High [View article]
    Gosh. 4 years ago?!? I lost track then! That is indeed an eternity ago given the current cycle.

    With the U.S. dollar soaring against the pound in recent weeks, I am wondering whether "consensus" is starting to shift on who will jump in the pool first....
    Aug 21 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Rides High [View article]
    I assume you meant the BoE is likely to be the first of the major central banks to hike rates *next*. Carney of course led rate hikes at the Bank of Canada a little while back....
    Aug 20 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Splunk: Paving The Way For IBM [View article]
    I am curious to read/hear more about those trends. At first read, I thought this was a pretty good analysis painting the broad picture of the opportunity (or lack thereof) here...

    The trend to use machine learning is definitely well-established. I think the author's main point is that Splunk is not doing anything that protects itself from competitive pressures...which I assume will only increase as current trends continue to evolve...?
    Aug 19 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Continues For Home Builder Confidence Even As Affordability Continues Its Decline [View article]
    I have posted before that this measure of confidence is not a leading indicator. Instead, it has performed as a confirming indicator where the momentum and direction provide the signal, not the absolute level.

    I am not sure what builders you are looking at for inventories, but I see KBH last reported a value of inventory of $3B. The same as of end of Nov, 2007. That was down from $5.8B Nov, 2006. I suspect a big drop in inventory will be more of a bearish signal than an increase. Especially with overall housing production just barely above recessionary levels.
    Aug 19 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Quietly Returns To Early 2013 Levels [View article]
    Only time will tell if I get this correct, but I think I am at least pointed in the right direction. A fresh round of euro breakup fears will certainly challenge the SNB's pledge to print at will to devalue the currency. They might have plenty of "firepower' now not having experienced a serious test of that 1.20 level yet....
    Aug 19 01:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Quietly Returns To Early 2013 Levels [View article]
    The tail risks were triumphantly declared past and done with in 2012. It was soon after that I expect the markets to loosen their death grip on Swiss francs. It never happened. So, either the same fears are still roiling under the surface and/or the market has rapidly adjusted to a strong franc. The Bloomberg article I cited quoted one Swiss businessperson who complained it seems the SNB has come to accept 1.20 as an acceptable level. I haven't followed the SNB closely enough in the past year to make that conclusion, but I am definitely going to pay much more attention in the near-term now.
    Aug 19 01:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Quietly Returns To Early 2013 Levels [View article]
    Ah, I get it. Interesting thought process I hadn't considered. The SNB is ready and willing to print as much as it needs to buy freshly minted euros. In fact, my impression is that no country immediately outside the eurozone wants to import the areas deflation. That alone is likely making it all the harder for the ECB to implement monetary policy in a growth-oriented manner. The USD certainly rises above the fray in such a continuous and virtuous circle of anti-deflationary rounds...
    Aug 19 01:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Century Communities: An Economical And Sensible Play On A Rebound In The Shares Of Home Builders [View article]
    Thanks for reading and congrats on getting at least 1/3 in at $20.
    Aug 19 01:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Quietly Returns To Early 2013 Levels [View article]
    I always hesitate to make long-range forecasts on currencies since so much can change in so little time. For the franc, I will say that given its history of trading with a very narrow band, USD/CHF should be much more about the US dollar than the franc. And since the US is much more likely to hike rates next year than the SNB, USD/CHF *should* be materially higher than current levels at some point in 2015. I think that is the most realistic long-range assessment I can give!
    Aug 17 12:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Try At A Bottom For The Teucrium Corn ETF [View article]
    Thanks for the confirmation and the caveats. I purposely left out the potential impact of changes in ethanol production. Seems like that deserves a whole article or two on its own. My underlying assumption in this piece is that supply dynamics are more important than demand dynamics at these levels. I could be wrong of course.
    Aug 17 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Critical Breakdown For The British Pound [View article]
    LOL, thanks - I will be happy to end my Pound bullishness at 1.75.
    Aug 17 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Try At A Bottom For The Teucrium Corn ETF [View article]
    Any particular reason you have $3.17 as a downside target?
    Aug 15 04:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Critical Breakdown For The British Pound [View article]
    I am definitely trying to hit that last hurrah.

    Since a lot of the concern in the UK on housing seems to have been on affordability, I was expecting a softening in prices to lead to MORE sales activity. If that happens, the strong growth scenario could continue longer than expected I would think...
    Aug 14 11:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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