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Dr. Duru

 
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  • Why The Aussie/Yen Currency Pair Presents An Interesting Opportunity [View article]
    I agree that this is a great long opportunity. I would reduce the reasons to simply the yen is getting shredded by its central bank, the yield on the Aussie remains relatively high, and the RBA has yet to figure out how to push the currency any lower.
    Nov 14, 2014. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Minor Intervention Scare For The Australian Dollar [View article]
    Excellent point!

    I always find it educational to see when central bankers reveal they are keeping tabs on what traders are doing, planning, and thinking.
    Nov 13, 2014. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bad And The Good News In The Housing Market's Worsening Labor Shortage [View article]
    I understand the skepticism if you consider construction labor low-skilled, but it contains a mix. The Associated General Contractors of America is specifically saying that the wages in other professions are high enough to keep otherwise qualified workers away from the industry for those jobs that require training and higher skills. The issue for them is that margins in the industry in general are so thin that builders currently cannot afford to use wages to attract more workers. We know this is not the case for most of the public homebuilders (from their earnings reports), but they are acting like margins are extremely thin because they have aggressive margin targets to hit as promises to shareholders. They are using healthy margins to demonstrate financial acumen.

    So, the AGCA's solution is the correct one. Take otherwise untrained and unqualified workers and get them the skills needed. Putting all the cynicism and skepticism aside, this is a job opportunity waiting for those willing to put in the time.

    Finally, the main point of discussing the AGCA's survey is to demonstrate that the homebuilders are not blowing smoke on this issue. The rapid drop in the unemployment rate even as the number of employees is well below the lows from the last cycle demonstrates that a lot fewer people are looking for work in the industry - and this makes sense given the housing industry is still a shadow of its former self; it is not nearly as attractive as a place to work as it used to be. Ignoring the difficulties faced by builders in finding qualified labor is to ignore the great economic implications of an overall economy that is strong enough to create these shortages in the first place.

    And note that some of the builders are NOT blaming financial results on this shortage. For example, in the quote above, KBH specifically reassures the street that these shortages and higher costs are NOT impacting their margin. The impact is going to vary from builder to builder. There is not some uniform cry to "blame the rain" for poor results. (Not to mention so many builders continue to generate relatively good earnings results despite all the existing headwinds).
    Nov 13, 2014. 02:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Second Extremely Strong Month For Canadian Jobs Chases Away My Bearish Bias [View article]
    And that is how opportunities are born....
    Nov 10, 2014. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally Stepping In To Start Buying iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF [View article]
    Will do. I have gulped hard. Very hard.
    Nov 10, 2014. 05:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The Real Story Of Why Oil Plunged This Year [View article]
    So are you suggesting oil is about to bounce from these levels?
    Nov 9, 2014. 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading The Breakdown Of The Australian Dollar [View article]
    I rarely ever see currencies "behave" and settle into a stable equilibrium around PPP. I think it is a decent guide sometimes directionally, but it doesn't seem to be useful for trading purposes.
    Nov 6, 2014. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quietly The Swiss Franc Presses The Swiss National Bank's Nerves Again [View article]
    Thanks for mentioning that. In writing this article, I stumbled upon the SNB's position statement against the referendum. I have an outstanding to-do to read through that.

    The reason for shorting is the assumption that the SNB might pro-actively make a move to defend the 1.20 floor. Of course, their hands could indeed be tied by the referendum and in that case AUD/CHF will go lower, all else being equal. Note that at the time I also assumed the Australian dollar would start to strengthen again. I no longer think that is in the cards for the short-term.
    Nov 6, 2014. 01:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Drives Australian Retail Sales, Trade Balance Worsens, And Monetary Policy Makes No Moves [View article]
    I spoke a moment too soon. Looks like the USD is finally getting strong er enough to push AUD/USD through support. I will wait for follow-through before concluding the big breakdown may finally be underway...
    Nov 5, 2014. 05:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Potential Opportunities Ahead For Ageing Populations [View article]
    You're welcome. Thanks for reading. I thought it was a relatively fresh perspective worth at least consideration.
    Nov 5, 2014. 01:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Drives Australian Retail Sales, Trade Balance Worsens, And Monetary Policy Makes No Moves [View article]
    It sure is! I had to blink twice when I saw that little tidbit in the retail report!
    Nov 5, 2014. 01:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Drives Australian Retail Sales, Trade Balance Worsens, And Monetary Policy Makes No Moves [View article]
    I would be too. But the traders who insist on staying long the Aussie have proven exceptionally stubborn! The bottom may not break until the RBA actually does something to force the issue...
    Nov 5, 2014. 01:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Shiller P/E Is Useless [View article]
    Great work. I have had in the back of my head a to-do to look for work showing that Shiller's P/E ratio is useful. I have only seen it presented as being "intuitively" sensible but not analytically useful. This was a great critical review and thanks for the additional references.
    Nov 3, 2014. 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Still Room For Upside After The S&P 500 Survives Its Most Dangerous Months Of The Year [View article]
    I am not sure of your point. Are you saying there is point in doing analysis (technical and/or fundamental?) because the market is destined to keep going up? Don't you need analysis to claim that the market is overvalued or to determine the implications of margin debt like how high is too high?
    Nov 3, 2014. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still Room For Upside After The S&P 500 Survives Its Most Dangerous Months Of The Year [View article]
    That's a lot of ifs. For these kinds of analyses, I don't deal with the counterfactuals and prefer to deal with what is happening in front of us. I did not predict more stimulus from the BoJ, but it happened. Now that it has happened, I have to throw it into the pot of supporting indicators.

    You did not mention what conditions or indicators would make you "believe" the market.

    Also note I did not make an assumption that September or October is when a crash must occur. I noted that history tells us the months of August through October have the highest likelihood of a significant drawdown. A drawdown does not need to equal crash, like this October delivered a significant drawdown but the market did not crash (I believe typically considered a rapid plunge of 20% or more). And yes, a sell-off/correction/crash can happen at anytime for all sorts of reasons.

    Ultimately, I consider it most risky to fight the market for extended periods of time. If a trader prefers to stick to a particular belief, best to wait for the market to signal it finally agrees (or at least seems ready to agree - however that is determined).
    Nov 3, 2014. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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