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Dr. Duru  

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  • The Commodity Crash Takes A Pause: An Attractive Trade On Coffee [View article]
    I looked at a few contracts through StockCharts.com. The market is indeed in contango at least through the March contract. It is not steep though.
    Aug 20, 2015. 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Commodity Crash Takes A Pause: An Attractive Trade On Coffee [View article]
    So far, the drag does not seem to be showing up in consumption growth...
    Aug 20, 2015. 01:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Commodity Crash Takes A Pause: An Attractive Trade On Coffee [View article]
    Wow. That's exorbitantly expensive. Where did you get the info?
    Aug 20, 2015. 12:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Commodity Crash Takes A Pause: An Attractive Trade On Coffee [View article]
    I haven't spent too much time differentiating the different coffee beans since the JO ETN doesn't allow for such investing/trading. I also understand contango can be an issue. I am basically making a bet that price can appreciate fast enough in the short-term to make that a non-issue.

    Aussie has definitely been treating me well - primarily with the long GBP/AUD cross. Great uptrend still in place.

    As I say in my "Commodities Crash Playbook", I long ago stopped building trading plans on the collapse of China's economy. It has been much anticipated but I guess a lot of years in the making. I think any notable slowdown in China will cause global shock just because of the very optimistic growth assumptions that are built into a lot of models from the World Bank to the IMF to all our central banks and on and on...!
    Aug 19, 2015. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Enter Alibaba, Baidu After Soros Departure? [View article]
    So what specific valuation metrics (ranges are fine of course) are you targeting on these companies?
    Aug 17, 2015. 06:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks rebound from early loss with homebuilding a bright spot [View news story]
    So if the market closed down, it would have been the fault of the manufacturing report. Doubtful the homebuilders market index moved the market. It has not done so before, at least not in my recent memory.
    Aug 17, 2015. 05:27 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Turkish Lira Approaches All-Time Lows As The Central Bank Fails To End The Selling [View article]
    So it seems a workable strategy is to just sit and wait for some buying interest to show up. Once that happens, check again on whether things look they could be turning. In the meantime, look out for the results of and the reaction to the election.
    Aug 16, 2015. 12:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Turkish Lira Approaches All-Time Lows As The Central Bank Fails To End The Selling [View article]
    Thanks for the clarification. Looks dim.
    Aug 16, 2015. 12:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Should Continue To Weaken [View article]
    That would be a disaster for the gold market...
    Aug 16, 2015. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Turkish Lira Approaches All-Time Lows As The Central Bank Fails To End The Selling [View article]
    So what is the bullish outcome? It seems you can argue bearish whether Erdogan comes on top or not.
    Aug 14, 2015. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners' (MEMP) CEO John Weinzierl on Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Too easy to blame shorts. There is widespread panic in the oil patch. No low is too low yet. Will just need to stay patient....
    Aug 14, 2015. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • D.R. Horton Doesn't Care Who Buys Its Houses - Neither Should Investors [View article]
    Just to clarify, I think you mean at the margin the homeownership rate does not matter. If U.S. homeownership dropped to 5% and all the homes were bought by foreign investors, we would care very much as that kind of demand profile is not sustainable without a catalyst to turn domestic homeownership around. Such a low rate would also have serious implications for the kind of wealth profiles i the population in following decades. But I DO agree with you that this rate by itself does not matter. As you suggest, it is a symptom, not a cause. I provided some specifics using data here (mostly demographics): http://seekingalpha.co...

    I also wrote a piece summarizing the Fed's annual report on the financial health of US households which contained some good nuggets on this topic.
    Aug 14, 2015. 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Should Continue To Weaken [View article]
    The gold bottom is a short-term call. I make no forecast on how long it will last or how high gold can get off this bottom. So far, so good. But there is clear resistance looming just overhead!
    Aug 13, 2015. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Should Continue To Weaken [View article]
    Interesting. I hadn't considered the prospect of the eurozone selling gold as a part of currency strategy.
    Aug 13, 2015. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Should Continue To Weaken [View article]
    I also wrote that the trade to do was to (re)short the franc after the SNB capitulation. Like you, I closed out that trade too early.

    As I mentioned, I think there are more attractive risk/reward trades out there. So I agree with you on that.

    I am a long-term bull on gold, so I won't be joining you on THAT short! The bottom that I speculated on gold in an earlier piece is working out well. I have finally started trading around my core position.
    Aug 12, 2015. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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