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Dr. Duru

 
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  • The San Francisco Bay Area's Housing Micro-Climates: A Microcosm Of A 2-Speed Recovery [View article]
    From what I have seen, it is. We are not even at speculation phase yet. People really want to own homes again in the Bay Area.
    Apr 30, 2013. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The San Francisco Bay Area's Housing Micro-Climates: A Microcosm Of A 2-Speed Recovery [View article]
    Thanks for the perspective from the 90s. I didn't pay much attention to real estate then as I was in grad school. I really should have!

    This time around, there are plenty of constraints still in the system to prevent a bubble anywhere near the size of the last one. We will have a two-speed recovery for some time to come.
    Apr 28, 2013. 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take A Pause From Your Deflation Fears And Consider Some Counter-Evidence [View article]
    That's a new one for me. For a quick trade to play a bounce for lows, I think it makes sense. In general, these leveraged bets tend to lose over time though, so managing (mental) stop losses would be critical.
    Apr 25, 2013. 03:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Earnings Trading Patterns And Sentiment Collide With Apple's Recent Downtrend [View article]
    I forgot to note it was a 420/430 spread. It was looking REAL good when Apple hit $430 or so in after-hours trading. I am actually a bit stunned it managed to fall all the way backward to $405 by the end of trading . VERY bad sign and poor momentum for tomorrow's open. A negative close tomorrow would signal a resumption of Apple's on-going weakness. Too bad too. It was looking really good there for a while!
    Apr 23, 2013. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Earnings Trading Patterns And Sentiment Collide With Apple's Recent Downtrend [View article]
    I never even thought to look at serial patterns. As you can tell from the charts, I focused on year-over-year. I don't have time now, but I will look into this. Since AAPL's history is dominated by a long, extended uptrend, doubtful Apple has had many 3-quarter strings of poor earnings.
    Apr 23, 2013. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Earnings Trading Patterns And Sentiment Collide With Apple's Recent Downtrend [View article]
    Yes. Expires this Friday although I would prefer longer, like May. Just happened to have this call spread as an outcrop from trading last week.

    If I were long over 1000 shares with avg price of $550, I would have sold a while ago! But at this point, I would be more interested in buying some puts to hedge such a huge position. I would not replace with calls because of the size of the potential loss if the timing is wrong.
    Apr 23, 2013. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Earnings Trading Patterns And Sentiment Collide With Apple's Recent Downtrend [View article]
    We are all waiting (and hoping) for a positive report that gets a positive reaction. Good luck to you!
    Apr 23, 2013. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar Puts Heads On A Swivel [View article]
    Yes - they are definitely different. The comparison I am making is a reminder of how hard it is for management to predict accurately what is going to happen in this kind of industry over a span of several years.
    Apr 22, 2013. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver Enthusiasm Soar To Historic Levels In The Wake Of Collapsing Prices [View article]
    Oh wow - thanks for pointing out the incorrect link! I am submitting to get that corrected now. (In the meantime, people can find the "Gold Slam" article at http://seekingalpha.co...

    I honestly haven't thought of how far a bounce could go. I rarely give upside targets since central banks are proving they will operate with boundless enthusiasm for acocmodative policies. I stopped trading gold and silver a while back and decided to just sit on my portfolio, accumulating when prices get good (like now).

    I agree economic weakness will tend to pressure gold and silver, but it will also tend to pressure central banks to increase money-printing. Like a self-reinforcing loop.

    At this point, my horizon has stretched out for several years as to when the precious metals may surge again like they did from 2004 or so through 2011.
    Apr 22, 2013. 12:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weakening Trend Likely Ready To Resume For Canadian Dollar [View article]
    Yep. Hard-to-believe but that's my "eventual" target. It should take some time though but will accelerate if Canada's economy suffers any setback, especially relative to the US.
    Apr 21, 2013. 10:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Confirmation Of Price And Cost Pressures In Homebuilding [View article]
    That's a great point. Would be good to get another layer down in the data to see the distribution of builders who participate, from public to private, and small to large. I will keep that in mind.
    Apr 18, 2013. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
    Great article. Glad I stumbled upon it. I always appreciate seeing the data behind the conspiracy!
    Apr 18, 2013. 01:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Forex Traders Need To Care About Gold's Collapse [View article]
    Great points!
    Apr 18, 2013. 01:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why A New Bottom For Gold Will Likely Prove Elusive For Now [View article]
    The idea (or the potential dynamic) is that forced selling produces lower than "normal" prices. The seller is willing to accept lower bids and buyers, knowing the seller's urgency, lowers their bids. Buyers also worry about the potential impact of other forced sellers and do not want to pay too high a price. But this dynamic also sets the stage for an eventual (and often quick) recovery given the price points are a reflection of a temporary distortion brought on by desperation. Sure, if the buyers are friendly treasuries in other countries, the prices may never get impacted, but I see no reason to believe that buyers taking gold from forced sellers will "play nice."
    Apr 16, 2013. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Forex Traders Need To Care About Gold's Collapse [View article]
    When you say "further pressure on major currencies" which major currencies are you talking about? I assume you mean the yen and dollar pressuring all the other majors?
    Apr 16, 2013. 01:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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