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Dr. Duru  

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  • A Bullish Divergence For Homebuilders Could Signal Start Of Fresh Momentum [View article]
    As a trading rule, I try to avoid projecting currencies out for years much less decades. It very well may be true that the Swiss franc will inevitably head ever higher, but in the moment, the SNB is fighting it. Central banks have had a bad habit of winning currency battles lately. It also seems to me that the monetary conditions now are a lot different than in 1960, 1970, etc... Was the SNB ever actively working against its currency back then? The current rhetoric seems to indicate no - that this time around is a very unique time.

    Anyway, I know these are currency comments on a housing article. Thanks for the feedback!
    Apr 10, 2015. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China May Drop The Next Shoe On Iron Ore [View article]
    Thanks for reading.

    I like your characterization. Something has to give soon...bigtime. In fact, you made me think that instead of being relentlessly bearish on RIO, it is now time to take a more hedged and measured approach...like call and put options. After all, (speaking of a managed process), the noise about Glencore acquiring RIO keeps being placed into the market conscious periodically. I will cover more about it in a post soon. I think Glencore will either be making a big mistake and/or it will do nothing to change the trajectory of prices. It could even accelerate the decline if Glencore's actions serve to make RIO even more efficient and putting product into the market.
    Apr 9, 2015. 10:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit Opportunities In The Federal Reserve's Spread Of Rate Scenarios [View article]
    I don't think the ideas here have much to do with a bear vs bull market. It is about dealing with uncertainty, trading *without* genius, and paying attention to the market signals wherever they take you...
    Apr 9, 2015. 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bullish Divergence For Homebuilders Could Signal Start Of Fresh Momentum [View article]
    I take it you agree with bullishness in housing over the long-term but not with my position of shorting the franc... :)
    Apr 8, 2015. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss National Bank Delivers A Spirited Defense Of Manipulating The Swiss Franc [View article]
    I agree. I am definitely not faulting the SNB for the franc's strength. The SNB is doing everything it can to fight off the strength. The persistent desire to own francs is definitely coming from a combination of speculators and those who fear some bigger risk than parking cash in francs...
    Apr 8, 2015. 04:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss National Bank Delivers A Spirited Defense Of Manipulating The Swiss Franc [View article]
    Nice. I like that point!
    Apr 8, 2015. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • D. R. Horton Share Price Well Above Fair Value From Housing Starts [View article]
    I disagree on a causal implication for lumber. Homebuilders prefer lower lumber prices. It is very possible that drop in prices is from lower export demand with stronger dollar and weaker global growth. If you look closer at your chart, you will see periods of sharp divergence that require explanation before trusting in an overall 0.66 correlation.
    Apr 7, 2015. 06:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse: Signs of slowdown creeping in in Houston [View news story]
    That should have read "Just expectations." The caveat of a diverse Houston economy sounds like a major exception to the headline as well.
    Apr 6, 2015. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse: Signs of slowdown creeping in in Houston [View news story]
    And where exactly are the signs of the slowdown? There are no specifics here. S expectations based on time lags.
    Apr 6, 2015. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Rate Cut Pressure As Australian Dollar's Multi-Year Weakness Fails To Curb Trade Deficit [View article]
    Yes. I wrote about RIO earlier. They are clearly positioning the company to be as attractive to investors as possible. The buyback and defending the dividend are great examples. I also can't recall the avg price of the bought shares to-date.

    I almost thought RIO was going to pull it off when it was on the edge of breaking out above its 200-day moving average. After that failed, I went short again. Now, I am impressed with the resiliency in the face of on-going pressure on iron ore.
    Apr 3, 2015. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Rate Cut Pressure As Australian Dollar's Multi-Year Weakness Fails To Curb Trade Deficit [View article]
    I am bracing for just such a scenario. The path lower has been fraught with sharp relief rallies, so I try not to get overly bearish at any given time and I manage positions actively. 50c seems awfully low though! I was thinking more like 65c or so and only then on a big and swift swoosh lower than carves out a bottom.

    I wrote earlier about the RBA's bind given what now appears to be an incipient housing bubble in major cities. It is truly a difficult situation to manage even with macroprudential policies in place to try to limit speculation.
    Apr 3, 2015. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bullish Divergence For Homebuilders Could Signal Start Of Fresh Momentum [View article]
    Thanks for reading. Sounds like we are of similar minds.
    Apr 3, 2015. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iron ore sinks below $50, raising questions about big miners [View news story]
    The pressure for a rate cute is definitely intensifying, but it could also be the last one if the RBA agrees with the iron ore targets of analysts. Iron ore "should be" bottoming sooner than later: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 2, 2015. 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trying Not To Outsmart The Dollar Trend [View article]
    Thx!
    The collection of data seems to just bounce around without a convincing story to tell one way or the other. The most important interpretation is the Fed's and currently it remains optimistic enough to stay on the rate hike course of talk...
    Mar 31, 2015. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stamps.com - Investors Applaud The Purchase Of Endicia [View article]
    Thx for the reply...
    Mar 28, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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