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Dr. Duru  

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  • Another Critical Juncture For The British Pound [View article]
    So you think 1.42 could easily crumble under its own weight, not just U.S. dollar strength. I wonder where your ultimate target is on cable? Parity? :)
    Mar 15, 2015. 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FXCM To The Swiss National Bank: You Managed The Swiss Franc Like A Developing Nation [View article]
    Just to be clear, I am not claiming FXCM will sure or even can sue. I was just saying the presentation had the tone of someone who was getting ready to do so.

    Still, I think they gave a solid case. It was a hard lesson for them. I forgot to note that the company also claimed it would stop offering currencies for trade which are manipulated. But I am not sure then why the Swiss franc is still available... Maybe FXCM meant it will no longer offer managed currencies with active caps/targets. Note they made it through a lot of other extremely volatile events just fine, including the chaos that occurred when the SNB instituted the cap. The key was that their liquidity providers stayed in the game. As we learned in the financial crisis, perfectly solvent firms can get crushed when liquidity disappears.
    Mar 13, 2015. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TRI Pointe Homes: A 'Knife Fight' In Houston's Housing Market [View article]
    I guess it depends on what you call significant. Houston is the current focus of the oil-related concerns. I did not see the 17% referenced in the article you linked to. I assume that is an estimate from the individual %s? When I think of major, I think of a builder like LGIH whose very fortunes are tied to Texas.

    The interesting thing about Texas is that the economy and the housing market in particular have been much more stable than the rest of the US. The state weathered the recession far better and benefited from avoiding a huge bubble and burst going into the recession. So, the oil collapse has to have *some* impact, until the overall numbers materially decline in Houston, I am giving the region the benefit of the doubt...and gulping hard.
    Mar 12, 2015. 12:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TRI Pointe Homes: A 'Knife Fight' In Houston's Housing Market [View article]
    I read that but didn't want to make this piece more complicated with the implications of TOL's comments. TOL is in a class by itself given the luxury market it focuses on. I think overall the picture in Houston is mixed and builders are giving us different views of the elephant in the market, so to speak. I am inclined to believe that the market is indeed extremely competitive in the entry-level to mid-market.
    Mar 12, 2015. 12:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Reluctant Central Bank In Australia [View article]
    Good catch. I had not thought about this speech from that angle. The RBA will certainly not take responsibility for helping to drive housing prices ever higher in the major cities. For example, I have read population growth cited as a bigger driver.
    Mar 9, 2015. 08:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Unloved But Still Not Cheap [View article]
    "Beware" is a good operative word. But are you saying you are writing covered calls against gold positions or stocks in general?
    Mar 8, 2015. 01:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Trading Plan For The Euro After Draghi Displays Fresh Confidence [View article]
    Yep. I am also sticking to my short-term trading stance. Closed out of my short euro position ahead of the weekend. And will restart then engines next week. Right now, EUR/USD is VERY extended to the downside from a technical perspective. I can't wait to see whether any dramatic changes have happened with the commitment of traders data.
    Mar 7, 2015. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Trading Plan For The Euro After Draghi Displays Fresh Confidence [View article]
    Quick update - EUR/USD falling below 1.10 again triggered a fresh short. My goodness - maybe this heads to parity after all! I still stop shorting above 1.11 and go long after that. But it looks like policy divergence still has a long way to play.
    Mar 6, 2015. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Reserve Bank Of Australia Slows The Momentum For Rate Cuts [View article]
    The pressure is indeed building! Certainly if Canada cuts again (it would surprise me, but it could happen), the RBA will almost certainly be forced to cut in April. Should be interesting....
    Mar 4, 2015. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Reserve Bank Of Australia Slows The Momentum For Rate Cuts [View article]
    It is definitely quite a jam. The RBA has been hoping that the US in particular would have already started normalizing rates by now, helping to send the Aussie much lower. The delay in a cut this month may also suggest that the RBA is not entirely confident that "macro-prudential" policies will be able to contain the growing housing bubble in Sydney and Melbourne if rates continue lower right now.
    Mar 4, 2015. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Senior Sell-Off Hits A Speed Bump: It Is Too Expensive To Sell [View article]
    The symbol was assigned by Seeking Alpha. It seems to a common symbol used for real estate articles that do not reference a specific equity.
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Senior Sell-Off Hits A Speed Bump: It Is Too Expensive To Sell [View article]
    Except that is not a first option for seniors who want to stay close to family or an established network of friends and community. These folks in particular have lived in the same house for 30 years or so.
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Senior Sell-Off Hits A Speed Bump: It Is Too Expensive To Sell [View article]
    Right - but their original goal was to move away from suburban living and to live a more urban lifestyle in a denser community. My impression is that downsizing is a secondary goal that was there because they assumed they could use the money-saved to afford the urban living.
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The January Barometer Appears Set To Fail Again This Year [View article]
    Are you saying the January barometer is a better predictor of 2nd half performance than full year performance?
    Mar 2, 2015. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Weekend Rate Cut In China Fails To Stir The Australian Dollar; RBA Now On Tap [View article]
    Iron ore. Commodities in general. A turn-around depends on the domestic economy improving outside of commodities.
    Mar 2, 2015. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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