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Dr. Duru

 
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  • Peak Driving [View article]
    How is "population adjusted" defined? I hope it means miles per driver? I also keep hearing anecdotally that young people these days are delaying the acquisition of driver's licences. I have yet to find hard data confirming this, but if true, it definitely speaks to an on-going social transformation. It could say a lot about the locus of relationships when so many people can communicate remotely for so cheap...and such communications are considered perfectly normal even when the people involved are within riding, biking, or walking distance....
    Sep 14 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Splunk: An Insider Bonanza [View article]
    DATA is having a nice technical breakout. And looks like a buy on the dip. This one is actually on my list to look at more closely at some point soon as well. The valuation is incredibly high, but, as in the case of SPLK, investors and traders do not overall seem to care much...for now. At least DATA "only" trades at 17x sales and is making a slim amount of profit. :)
    Sep 13 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Indifferent To Scottish Independence [View article]
    And during those years, the pound is likely to be subject to heavy headline risk. I was also reading that a a close No vote will not put the matter to rest and also provide plenty of volatility going forward!
    Sep 13 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Australian Dollar Finally Breaks Down Amid Signs Warranting Increased Caution [View article]
    It is an amazing process to watch given things were so relatively calm just a few weeks ago!

    Commodities in general have also been declining all year but interesting to see no real side impacts until just recently. Perhaps it took oil's recent sharp decline to get things started....

    Not sure yet whether I can conclude from all this that a global contraction is right around the corner. But what is happening with property and steel in China has my alarms up more than before. Still waiting to see the market really react to all that. FXI, for example, is still near the top of a 3+ year range.
    Sep 11 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Indifferent To Scottish Independence [View article]
    So why would the forex market react so violently with the rest of the financial world relatively complacent? Is it really just an over-reaction or is it the leading indicator?
    Sep 11 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Mea Culpa On The British Pound And Next Steps For Trading On The Slippery Slope [View article]
    The GBP/AUD bounce was swift and sharp...and surprising! But part of a sudden reversal of strength for the Aussie. But I agree it is a pretty good way to short the pound since you can collect yield on the way down. Even if a weakening cycle is finally underway for the Aussie, the British pound is likely to slide further, faster given the current uncertainties in the UK now.

    Given Carney's speech this week about the timing for rate hikes, I am staying on my toes for any BoE jawboning surprises....
    Sep 10 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Mea Culpa On The British Pound And Next Steps For Trading On The Slippery Slope [View article]
    Thanks for the heads up on that. I didn't hear/read the news. Definitely awful to face constant and on-going headline risks in the currency!
    Sep 9 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Mea Culpa On The British Pound And Next Steps For Trading On The Slippery Slope [View article]
    I forgot to add that despite the short position against the pound using the British pound, I am still net short the Australian dollar.
    Sep 9 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Squeeze On Renters And Implications For The Housing Market [View article]
    Thanks for the data points on Denver.

    @sharppencil - what you say makes sense, but since it is hard to know exactly how much shadow eviction goes on, it is hard to stake a thesis or claim on that process. In particular, I would want to know whether it is more prevalent now than at other times, etc...
    Sep 8 11:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Dollar Is Strong But...What About Carry? [View article]
    I am not suggesting inflation causes growth. I am saying in an environment of economic growth, there is likely to be some inflation. When you say "inflation inhibits real growth," I think you mean inflation above some threshold....or even some level of real (negative?) interest rates.
    Sep 8 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Dollar Is Strong But...What About Carry? [View article]
    ...assuming the Federal Reserve does not respond to higher inflation readings. And if inflation is higher because of stronger growth, the relationship becomes more complicated. The euro could keep going lower a a funding currency to buy dollar-based assets which are increasing in value.
    Sep 7 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Subtle Changes With Potentially Strong Implications For The Reserve Bank Of Australia's Latest Monetary Decision [View article]
    I think looking for substance is half the fun of tracking Central Bankers! :)

    I have learned that no matter how much I may like or dislike them, they are VERY purposefully and say almost nothing by mistake. Whether they prefer a direct style or try to reflect Spirit and mood," they are always trying to direct markets by their whispers and pronouncements. Whether they work is another story.

    I found this latest statement more intriguing given the appearance before the House just two weeks ago or so. So, I thought this statement deserved some extra attention in that context. I think Stevens was very clear on his spirit and mood when he spoke with the House....
    Sep 2 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celebrating Apple's New All-Time Highs With 4 Reasons For Caution [View article]
    I fully agree that the massive buyback is important to consider. I just did not think it was a critical piece of the current sentiment story. I did cover the buyback in my March 2nd piece (http://seekingalpha.co...) where I worried about *negative* sentiment despite the massive size of the buyback. In that case, I relied on price action as my guide forward and stayed patient...

    However, your comment does make me think I should have flagged the buyback as a very likely (main) driver of the very systematic march upward shown in the above stock chart!
    Sep 2 02:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celebrating Apple's New All-Time Highs With 4 Reasons For Caution [View article]
    I think you misunderstood the context of my assessment and my definition of "market sentiment" in this context. Apple is definitely not "fully recovered" based on ratios to the major indices.

    My reference to market sentiment is not relative to the ratios you describe. It is strictly about the short interest as a proxy for bearish sentiment, options trading as a bear/bull signal, volume action if relevant (not relevant for the current case), changes in analyst opinion, price action relative to important technical levels and indicators, and, when available, other indicators which might reveal the market's general bias toward shares. There were more of these signals that I could document in my last piece on Apple sentiment.

    I am also not staking a claim that sentiment is the only important factor for assessing Apple. The ratios you calculated are symptomatic of Apple's declining P/E that represents the market's declining willingness to pay for Apple shares. As I noted, this decline has endured for many years. I think it could be the most dominant theme for Apple over longer time horizons. (Sentiment is based digested in shorter timeframes). If (when?) this trend finally breaks, I will consider a major bullish turning point for Apple's shares.

    Finally, in an earlier post (March 2nd: http://seekingalpha.co...), I noted how Apple failed to respond to the buybacks and pointed out reasons for concern in sentiment. Fortunately, while the stock was not getting a boost from what I also saw as positive catalysts, it was at least not selling off in response. So, I considered it worthwhile to stay patient and wait for the market to "catch up." I basically drew the line at new lows for 2014. Fortunately, that worked out...
    Sep 2 02:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Nothing Unusual About The Latest (Sharp) Rally [View article]
    Your first question is hard to answer because of the overlap. If the S&P 500 gains 6%% in 2 days and then including those 2 days plus another 2 days it gains 4.7% overall, do I count that once or twice? So, your first question seems a lot more complicated than answering the question I answered in this piece.

    I don't have an answer to your second question because of a lack of data. But if you can point me to S&P 500 trading data that far back, the question is easy to answer....although I am not confident in the relevancy of stock market price trends before World War II. Something I think going back to 1950 is a stretch but some people like to see many decades of data before believing anything.

    Per my article, analyzing point gains don't make sense to me. Only percentage gains make sense.
    Aug 31 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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