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Dr. Duru

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  • 2014's Santa Rally Delivers Gains As Expected And Ends With Two Historic Moves [View article]
    ...that the second half of December continues to be seasonally strong. Buy the dips in early December for a good risk/reward trade.
    Jan 8, 2015. 11:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Buy The Oil Panic Of 2014 [View article]
    Why is LINE such a popular way to play a bottom in oil? I notice it has about 7% short of its float, and the plunge seems to be even more exaggerated than other plays.
    Jan 8, 2015. 01:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Is Trapped In A Bear Raid; Not Its Fundamentals [View article]
    Hey John - I was also going to say we have to consider the possibility that gold is about to embark on a fresh bout of weakness. After all, it is now moving sharply counter to a strong dollar.

    Anyway, I see a negative feedback loop that is well-reinforced. I understand from a psychological stand point and perhaps even some kind of fundamentals it seems too far too fast, but I can't fathom a reliable framework for pinning down even the vicinity of the end of it all.

    I bought MEMP a little while back after learning on Nightly Business Report that they have hedged their oil out 5 years. At the time they did it, they were of course heavily criticized. NOW? Sitting pretty. They have been thrown out with the bath water. It could be easier to find other such hedged plays than to try to pick a bottom in the near-term.
    Jan 7, 2015. 03:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More pain for solar stocks as oil falls below $48/barrel [View news story]
    Since you recognize that solar and oil have little connection, I am surprised SA keeps producing headlines as such. I think it is much better to suppose that the same economic forces that are taking oil down could be at work taking ALL energy down. The world may just need a lot less energy production in the near-term. In the oil patch, the price decline is exacerbated by the insistence of suppliers putting more product out for sale.

    I wrote a piece with a theory that a lot of tax-loss selling was going on from folks with energy-dominated portfolios. That is, declines in oil were forcing portfolio-driven selling. Either that is STILL happening, or my theory was not a core driver for solar! At least I put forth a hedged trading plan.
    Jan 6, 2015. 02:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Year's Re-Evaluation Of The Drivers For Bullishness On The Canadian Dollar [View article]
    Definitely. More about sentiment here I think.
    Jan 4, 2015. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Year's Re-Evaluation Of The Drivers For Bullishness On The Canadian Dollar [View article]
    Indeed. Canada's economy is VERY good! However, the on-going declines in the oil patch are a wet blanket sentiment in the forex market. I am willing to stand down here until the trend actually shows some sign of change for FXC, USD/CAD.
    Jan 4, 2015. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy And Hold Commodities, Trade Them [View article]
    Thanks for the interview. It crystallizes some thoughts I was trying to put together in an article.

    I am a bit perplexed by the commentary on oil however. Rudderow thinks oil is within $5 of a bottom. He also claims that marginal production of shale and conventional wells may be very similar - this contradicts data I have seen produced at other sources...suggesting shale is very high-cost oil. Regardless, Rudderow concludes by saying production is NOT going to fall off until oil goes a lot lower. This tells me oil is not likely within $5 of a bottom. Am I misinterpreting something?
    Jan 3, 2015. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breakout In Waiting: Housing Lags The Impressive Growth In U.S. GDP [View article]
    "Disappointing" may have been a poor choice of words. I agree on the cyclical effects.

    Interesting to see home builders close out the last trading day of the year strong even as volatility soared and the major indices took a small dip. Not quite sure what to make of THIS divergence...

    ITB even retested the high from last November before fading a bit.
    Dec 31, 2014. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'January Comeback' Trade For Solar Stocks [View article]
    And the key will be to see what demand looks like after the final bulge of orders. It didn't work out so well the last time such dynamics worked their way through the system. Of course, many non-viable solar companies have finally been pushed out the market as well (or on their way out).
    Dec 31, 2014. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'January Comeback' Trade For Solar Stocks [View article]
    Thanks for the link. I am reading more of the SA solar-related articles to get back up-to-speed. I have been "away" from solar for too long.
    Dec 31, 2014. 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Uncertain Impact Of Lower Oil And Gas Prices On Consumer Spending [View article]
    Good catch. There are some differences in the deflators being captured in my charts. I think there is value in the nominal calculations, but I have to chew on that bit. It might be worth a follow-up article or at least examining the nominal charts when I next do an update on this analysis.

    Thanks for the check!
    Dec 29, 2014. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Economy Health-Check: The Housing Market's Challenge From The Oil Patch [View article]
    Thanks. Going forward, I want to understand more about the specific drivers that ARE responsible for the strength of the Texan economy.
    Dec 25, 2014. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Economy Health-Check: The Housing Market's Challenge From The Oil Patch [View article]
    Thanks for the additional background and estimates of impact.
    Dec 25, 2014. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Canadian Dollar And Oil: An Imperfect Partnership [View article]
    Not Pollyanna at all. Commodity markets go through some violent convulsions that are enhanced by skilled traders and financial institutions. From what I see through the haze seems to be, just as you noted, a stronger Canadian dollar. I don't think oil will rally in a V-shape, but stabilization is on its way. Should be interesting!
    Dec 23, 2014. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecast Whiplash: Decreased Government Expectations For The Australian Dollar Do Not Seem To Go Far Enough [View article]
    I should have made the math more plain on why the government forecast implies a rally in the Australian dollar...

    The 2014-2015 year runs from July to June. AUD/USD has been above 0.87 for 4 months and as high as 0.93. To hit the 0.87 average, AUD/USD can stay at current levels for roughly 4 more months out of the next 6. In at least 2 months AUD/USD must go higher, how much higher depends on how much lower it goes from here.

    Another way to look at it...The current daily average since July is 0.89. If AUD/USD stays at 0.81 from here until the end of June, 2015, the average drops to about 0.85. So, AUD/USD must rally from from here at some point to meet the forecast.
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment