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Dr. Duru

 
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  • Still Room For Upside After The S&P 500 Survives Its Most Dangerous Months Of The Year [View article]
    That's a lot of ifs. For these kinds of analyses, I don't deal with the counterfactuals and prefer to deal with what is happening in front of us. I did not predict more stimulus from the BoJ, but it happened. Now that it has happened, I have to throw it into the pot of supporting indicators.

    You did not mention what conditions or indicators would make you "believe" the market.

    Also note I did not make an assumption that September or October is when a crash must occur. I noted that history tells us the months of August through October have the highest likelihood of a significant drawdown. A drawdown does not need to equal crash, like this October delivered a significant drawdown but the market did not crash (I believe typically considered a rapid plunge of 20% or more). And yes, a sell-off/correction/crash can happen at anytime for all sorts of reasons.

    Ultimately, I consider it most risky to fight the market for extended periods of time. If a trader prefers to stick to a particular belief, best to wait for the market to signal it finally agrees (or at least seems ready to agree - however that is determined).
    Nov 3, 2014. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of Japan Further Diverges From The U.S. Fed - Risk Trades In Focus [View article]
    Agreed. Simple formula. Yen is so much shredded confetti...or more shredded than other confetti anyway.
    Oct 31, 2014. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of Japan Further Diverges From The U.S. Fed - Risk Trades In Focus [View article]
    Thanks for the reference.
    Oct 31, 2014. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally Stepping In To Start Buying iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF [View article]
    I am only counting on the Olympics to generate more optimism heading into the event. I am definitely not making a projection for ultimate economic impact. Good point on productivity. I haven't looked at that although I have to assume it is low given low unemployment hasn't translated into better GDP growth.
    Oct 29, 2014. 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally Stepping In To Start Buying iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF [View article]
    Good catch. But since BRF rolled out in 2009, it looks highly correlated to EWZ. Are you making a case for divergence going forward?
    Oct 29, 2014. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally Stepping In To Start Buying iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF [View article]
    They are two of the most troubling parts of this contrarian play for me. PBR I am betting on a move to fix the issues there with the corruption scandal being the final purge of bad news. VALE is a different story. It has beaten up to a pulp and should keep going lower as long as BHP and RIO are playing mutually assured destruction with iron ore prices. But together PBR and VALE are less than 10% of EWZ. They are a drag, but not the final story.
    Oct 29, 2014. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evidence The Real Estate Recovery Is Intact [View article]
    I fully agree. But you should include ITB in your list of real-estate trackers. It is better indexed toward home builders than XHB.
    Oct 28, 2014. 04:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FXCM, Inc. Follows Through As Volatility Pays Off [View article]
    Hmmm....since you posted this question, FXCM has suddenly sold off. So maybe you are correct after all. That is, the market is betting this reduction in fee income will hurt the top and bottom lines. Volatility has also plunged, so it very well could be that the market is betting again that volatility is on its way down and for a good while! I am inclined to buy this dip, but I will stay patient given it represents a significant technical breakdown (below the 50 and 200DMAs)
    Oct 26, 2014. 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of England Minutes Help Cap The Pound Within Its Downtrend [View article]
    Thanks for the reminder of the overhang from the election. I agree that technicals are a good guide for trading the pound here.
    Oct 23, 2014. 04:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Homebuilders Should Fare In A Market Correction [View article]
    Amazing how the housing market just keeps chugging along...
    I think a lot of this move is elated anticipation of another blow-out new home sales number. But that means expectations are high again...
    If they come in just "ok", this whole episode will start looking a lot like 2011 again when housing numbers continued the recovery right through the alarming macro-headlines....
    Oct 21, 2014. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For A Housing Recovery, Visit The Doctor: Buy DR Horton [View article]
    Great stuff.

    I have actually preferred to date the builders more concentrated on the housing markets with strong economic fundamentals. (I am also long DHI). Do you have any reason to think that these markets will cool whenever the economic recovery broadens and enables more first-time homebuyers to step into the market? My thinking has been that such a broadening will make the strong states even more attractive.

    The state-specific busts you referenced were still part of a larger economic malaise in the country.
    Oct 21, 2014. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo Summarizes The Case For Staying Optimistic On U.S. Housing [View article]
    He had to devote his time to the financial results of his company. As I noted, I have covered the data supporting Stumpf's claims in other posts. I treat his commentary as important given WFC's central role in the housing market. I provided some historical context to make it clear that he has tended to be optimistic during the recovery.
    Oct 21, 2014. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FXCM, Inc. Follows Through As Volatility Pays Off [View article]
    I think the timing of the cuts is specifically to help encourage the extra trading volume. Time will tell of course. The cut in fees is also set up to attract new customers.
    Oct 20, 2014. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fade The Pros - Buy The Pound [View article]
    I like most of this. The main sticking point for me is the discussion of QE. QE did not stop the British pound from soaring most of this year against all currencies. Economic and future rate expectation proved much more important. Similarly for the dollar on QE3. THe dollar actually bottomed soon after that and has since never gone much lower than that.

    So, I am wondering whether the poor timing of large traders implies that they are using the British pound as a hedge on some other trades?
    Oct 18, 2014. 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For A 'Texas Hedge'? [View article]
    I also prefer options on this kind of trade. A nice automatic cap on losses no matter what happens.
    Oct 16, 2014. 04:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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