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Dr. Duru  

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  • Demographics Weigh On The U.S. Homeownership Rate [View article]
    Understood. I think an entire piece (or three) could be devoted to breaking out the reasons. I addressed some of this in another piece that discussed the Fed annual survey on the financial well-being of US households. "Afford" can be a squishy term since it is partly relative to what people want to spend money on. I think some element going on here is that young people are also less willing to put so much money into a residence and find that living with parents affords maximum flexibility - meaning they can get up and leave anytime they are ready with minimal cost...
    Aug 4, 2015. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Mysterious Omission By The Reserve Bank Of Australia Lifts The Australian Dollar [View article]
    As did I through GBP/AUD
    Aug 4, 2015. 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Mysterious Omission By The Reserve Bank Of Australia Lifts The Australian Dollar [View article]
    That's what I had to assume from these numbers! The decline in the dollar is definitely a double-edged sword for Australia's income and buying power!
    Aug 4, 2015. 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Turkish Lira Approaches All-Time Lows As The Central Bank Fails To End The Selling [View article]
    Good point. Perhaps the Turkish stock market is like a coiled spring just waiting for the currency to act better. But even coiled springs are subject to fatigue!
    Aug 3, 2015. 11:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Canadian Dollar Pushes To Fresh Post-Crisis Low On Broadly Weak May GDP [View article]
    The Bank of Canada has talked consistently of the imbalances in the domestic economy due to high housing debt. There is definite risk of a housing bust and lower rates flirt with pushing the market into one final parabolic run-up. However, before that even happens, the cheaper Canadian dollar could bring in a fresh flood of foreign buyers and investors no matter where rates are sitting....
    Aug 3, 2015. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Canadian Dollar Pushes To Fresh Post-Crisis Low On Broadly Weak May GDP [View article]
    Great points. And I am putting Kawartha's Lake region on my list! I was in Montreal last month for much too short of a time. Bookings there were no problem - I suspect it is not top of mind for English-speaking tourists relative to other Canadian destinations?
    Aug 3, 2015. 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Canadian Dollar Pushes To Fresh Post-Crisis Low On Broadly Weak May GDP [View article]
    I keep reading about trades on aud/cad. I may just have to add this one to my watchlist!

    I am actually afraid that the Bank of Canada is seriously drawing up scenarios for doing QE. All it might take now is for oil to make a new low, and they might panic into a zirp at the very next opportunity.... For now, I am staying put.
    Aug 3, 2015. 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correct Narrative On U.S. Wage Growth For The Second Quarter: The Dollar Recovers [View article]
    I like your overall strategy. Commodities SHOULD pause for a breather but clearly some big sellers are very active trying to get out in a hurry and even panic right now.

    For forex, I think playing volatility is best and not getting too hung up on direction for too long a time - with a few exceptions like the Aussie of course against other currencies. I particularly like short AUD/JPY when/if the market breaks down. The S&P 500 is apparently locked into a tight trading range until the Fed actually does something rather than just talk about doing something....
    Aug 3, 2015. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correct Narrative On U.S. Wage Growth For The Second Quarter: The Dollar Recovers [View article]
    I think you are making the second order argument that economists will never agree on. For those who anticipate greater joblessness from steep hikes in the minimum wage, they are certainly not worried about wage pressures in the near future. For those who believe overall employment will not get impacted much, then wage pressures should be very real. I am not sure where the Fed stands on this eternal debate....but I have to believe they have to err on the side of wage inflation when base rates are getting raised.
    Aug 3, 2015. 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correct Narrative On U.S. Wage Growth For The Second Quarter: The Dollar Recovers [View article]
    Well, I would go so far as to call it nonsense. The Fed Funds Futures monitors what "market participants' think - which is very different (apparently!) from the consensus opinion of the analysts who are not betting with their own money. Like you, I am increasingly skeptical that the Fed will hike rates at all this year. I interpret the shifting sands in the futures market as being similarly skeptical.
    Aug 3, 2015. 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: After Calling Distribution Cuts For MLPs, What Now? [View article]
    Don't know and even if they, they don't care. This has all the looks of sell first and ask questions later. Earnings coming up in a few days. I will be on the edge of my seat! :)
    Aug 2, 2015. 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: After Calling Distribution Cuts For MLPs, What Now? [View article]
    Right. The bond purchase made sense to me. But I am wondering why LINE's announcement rippled so widely. For example, I have bought MEMP down here. Their production i hedged out for about 4 years AND they just affirmed the next dividend distribution earlier in the week. So I am surprised a name like MEMP got slammed by LINE's announcement....
    Aug 1, 2015. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: After Calling Distribution Cuts For MLPs, What Now? [View article]
    That's a pretty bullish call by Pickens. How did he come to that conclusion?
    Aug 1, 2015. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Turkish Lira Approaches All-Time Lows As The Central Bank Fails To End The Selling [View article]
    I agree we have not seen the "watershed" moment for carry trades just yet. There was nothing extreme about the last unwinding cycle. The thing about the lira is that it has been getting crushed for a while, so I am not trying to overstay my welcome for long stretches.
    Jul 31, 2015. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Turkish Lira Approaches All-Time Lows As The Central Bank Fails To End The Selling [View article]
    Thanks for that summary! Very helpful. What a twisted mess. If I were more into politics, I would indeed dive in, analyze, and untangle... As far as the impact on currency, it sure increases the risk of the lira.
    Jul 31, 2015. 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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