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Dr. Duru

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  • EUR Being Set Up To Fall Hard? [View article]
    I assume you mean EUR is set up to fall hard because the ECB is the one central bank still talking about and dealing with a host economic weaknesses whereas others are dealing with growing strengths...?
    Feb 13 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • January Jobs Report Positives: Residential Construction Momentum And The Participation Rate [View article]
    Amazing, right?!? Of course, it suggests that the places not blanketed with snow were likely hiring at hyper levels. More good signs for spring season.
    Feb 11 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter's Recent Run-Up Reaching A Likely Crescendo [View article]
    I am not so sure. $50 is nice technical support. I wrote about it here: http://bit.ly/1lEYPTS

    Will write an SA article about my changed outlook soon.
    Feb 9 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bank Of Canada Welcomes A Weaker Currency And A Bullish U.S. Economy [View article]
    You are comparing different things. The U.S. unemployment rate fell as well to 6.6% and remains below Canada's. What was below expectations was the number of new jobs added to the economy, not the unemployment rate.

    Some key stats/points:

    http://bit.ly/1eD6eiI

    Over the past 12 months in Canada, "...the employment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 61.6% as employment grew at a slower pace than the population."

    http://huff.to/1eD6fTS

    "For the second month in a row, the U.S. unemployment rate was below that of Canada, something that had previously not been seen for some five years."

    Again, it is the relative differences that matter and the change in perspective and perception. Canada is coming down off a high perch, and the U.S. is rising from a trough (speaking from a trader's perspective). Also, it is still very much the case that Canada's economic prospects are tightly intertwined with the U.S.
    Feb 8 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • All The Reserve Bank Of Australia Has Left For Devaluation Is Jawboning [View article]
    Yep. I understand that. But for currency traders, the RBA sets the tone. You have reminded me that I need to track what those banks do with rates. Is there an easy way to do that? Like a single site that posts the latest rates across the banks?
    Feb 4 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bank Of Canada Welcomes A Weaker Currency And A Bullish U.S. Economy [View article]
    There was a GDP surprise in November. At that time, I commented that it would not change the primary depreciation process: http://seekingalpha.co...

    I think we would need to see several more upside surprises that *outstripped US GDP upside surprises* before the Canadian dollar stabilizes and/or reverses.

    At the last conference, Poloz refused to provide a specific target for the Canadian dollar. In fact, my impression is that the Bank tries as hard as it can NOT to act like it is targeting the currency or even relying on it to achieve economic results. Instead, they talk about it like it is almost incidental to policy.
    Feb 3 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With The January Barometer [View article]
    Exactly.

    And I actually was just doing the analysis to see the numbers for myself. I did not expect it to expose these serious flaws. This barometer is so old, I just assumed the work has already been done to verify it as a solid enough indicator to mention year-after-year...
    Feb 3 08:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With The January Barometer [View article]
    I only focus on the S&P 500, so I definitely will miss any Dow-related indicators....
    Feb 3 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With The January Barometer [View article]
    I have done correlations on other times of the year: the month of May, summer as a season, Labor Day, Black Friday, and first trading day of the month. I would say that the January barometer is the most incomplete of all these "fun with numbers" exercises. The most intriguing one of the bunch is the Black Friday relationship. You can see one of my last updates on that analysis here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 3 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What I Learned Shorting The Euro [View article]
    Correction: I forgot to mention that the Canadian dollar also did worse than the euro to start the year. It fell about 4.6% against the U.S. dollar in January. I am also long USD/CAD.
    Feb 3 12:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What I Learned Shorting The Euro [View article]
    I am also net short AUD/USD (the future of this will depend on tomorrow's RBA meeting). But I was a LOT more confidence in the EUR/USD short than the AUD/USD short. I think of the euro as being far more over-valued than the Australian dollar. And with inflation creepign higher in Australia, it is hard to see a lot more downside driven at least by monetary policy.
    Feb 2 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2014 Homebuilder Breakout Begins Early With A Very Bullish D.R. Horton [View article]
    I got some DHI on the small dip the day after earnings. I would definitely love to buy a lot more at lower prices, but I don't think the market will give me the opportunity anytime soon.
    Jan 30 09:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2014 Homebuilder Breakout Begins Early With A Very Bullish D.R. Horton [View article]
    Ooops! I missed that call. Do you remember what his rationale was for downgrading DHI ahead of earnings?
    Jan 30 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China PMI Fallout Takes Down Australian Dollar Even As Rate Expectations Stay Steady [View article]
    I believe the New Zealand has been tightening monetary policy thus leading to the stronger currency? Traders are probably playing NZD against the Aussie...
    Jan 27 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Investment Firm Tries To Nail The (All-Time) Bottom In RadioShack [View article]
    That's the big question. Same for Donald Smith & Co. I have only read that they have a good track record but no mention of specifics. As the graph showed, even big investment firms can take big calculated risks at the "wrong" (or a high) price.
    Jan 27 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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