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Dr. Duru

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  • Deere CEO: Corn Prices Will Come Back [View article]
    Will do. Since I own it, you bet I am watching it. Looks like the second time is NOT a charm though. Commodities in general continue to decline, and it is looking like ag is getting caught up in it as well.
    Sep 22, 2014. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swiss National Bank: 'The Economic Outlook Has Deteriorated Considerably' [View article]
    If the euro breaks, the SNB will have to act quickly to buy up euros. Since inflation is almost non-existent (see chart above), the SNB actually has room to keep printing currency to buy up currency to weaken the franc. Note well that the SNB did not promise to buy euros specifically. But it might make sense to do so in a panic situation if the SNB concludes the eurozone will survive through the panic.

    Outside a panic situation, I don't think the SNB can be crushed. They have the will to use the printing press...something even Soros lacks.
    Sep 19, 2014. 12:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aided By The Fed, The U.S. Dollar Will Maintain A Clear Runway For A Considerable Time [View article]
    Just not easy to tell how high the dollar has to get before it makes a notable dent in exports. If global demand is weakening, it won't be too much higher probably.
    Sep 18, 2014. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toll Brothers Remains Well Positioned For The Current Phase Of The Housing Recovery [View article]
    You will definitely need to exercise patience with the home builder plays. Overall sentiment is relatively bearish and the tendency has been to fade most attempts to go higher this year.
    Sep 18, 2014. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aussie And Iron Ore Prices [View article]
    So I am curious why do o many central banks focus so much of our attention on goods? Is it perhaps because it is more tangible and easier for the general public to understand and grasp?
    Sep 17, 2014. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aussie And Iron Ore Prices [View article]
    By "stale longs" do you mean traders who were just sitting on positions taking advantage the stubborn strength in the currency? Traders are definitely free to ignore the sharp decline in iron ore and the related decline in Australia's terms of trade as long as they can. But as Governor Glenn Stevens continues to warn - at some point, fundamentals will take the Aussie much lower.

    I am also not clear on your reference to the OECD estimates. Are you saying you disagree with it because of the methodology? Or do you agree with the assessment despite your disagreement with the methodology. Or...?
    Sep 16, 2014. 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bet On Increasing Currency Volatility With FXCM Inc. [View article]
    I sure hope it turns out to be brilliant. :) At least looks promising given the setup...
    Sep 16, 2014. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Yen Signal Correction? [View article]
    That's a lot of ifs in the conclusion!

    I have found the AUD/JPY cross to be more informative this year.

    And the yen rally you mention ahead of the April/May correction is barely perceptible in the chart.
    Sep 15, 2014. 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Driving [View article]
    How is "population adjusted" defined? I hope it means miles per driver? I also keep hearing anecdotally that young people these days are delaying the acquisition of driver's licences. I have yet to find hard data confirming this, but if true, it definitely speaks to an on-going social transformation. It could say a lot about the locus of relationships when so many people can communicate remotely for so cheap...and such communications are considered perfectly normal even when the people involved are within riding, biking, or walking distance....
    Sep 14, 2014. 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Splunk: An Insider Bonanza [View article]
    DATA is having a nice technical breakout. And looks like a buy on the dip. This one is actually on my list to look at more closely at some point soon as well. The valuation is incredibly high, but, as in the case of SPLK, investors and traders do not overall seem to care much...for now. At least DATA "only" trades at 17x sales and is making a slim amount of profit. :)
    Sep 13, 2014. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Indifferent To Scottish Independence [View article]
    And during those years, the pound is likely to be subject to heavy headline risk. I was also reading that a a close No vote will not put the matter to rest and also provide plenty of volatility going forward!
    Sep 13, 2014. 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Australian Dollar Finally Breaks Down Amid Signs Warranting Increased Caution [View article]
    It is an amazing process to watch given things were so relatively calm just a few weeks ago!

    Commodities in general have also been declining all year but interesting to see no real side impacts until just recently. Perhaps it took oil's recent sharp decline to get things started....

    Not sure yet whether I can conclude from all this that a global contraction is right around the corner. But what is happening with property and steel in China has my alarms up more than before. Still waiting to see the market really react to all that. FXI, for example, is still near the top of a 3+ year range.
    Sep 11, 2014. 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Indifferent To Scottish Independence [View article]
    So why would the forex market react so violently with the rest of the financial world relatively complacent? Is it really just an over-reaction or is it the leading indicator?
    Sep 11, 2014. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Mea Culpa On The British Pound And Next Steps For Trading On The Slippery Slope [View article]
    The GBP/AUD bounce was swift and sharp...and surprising! But part of a sudden reversal of strength for the Aussie. But I agree it is a pretty good way to short the pound since you can collect yield on the way down. Even if a weakening cycle is finally underway for the Aussie, the British pound is likely to slide further, faster given the current uncertainties in the UK now.

    Given Carney's speech this week about the timing for rate hikes, I am staying on my toes for any BoE jawboning surprises....
    Sep 10, 2014. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Mea Culpa On The British Pound And Next Steps For Trading On The Slippery Slope [View article]
    Thanks for the heads up on that. I didn't hear/read the news. Definitely awful to face constant and on-going headline risks in the currency!
    Sep 9, 2014. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment