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Dr. Duru

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  • Gold Is Setting Up For More Losses In 2014... And That's The Good News [View article]
    I forgot to mention silver. I like that too. Like you, I haven't decided on a new price point for loading up (for me, loading up some more).
    Jan 7 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Homebuilders Said To Close Out 2013: All Eyes On The 2014 Spring Selling Season [View article]
    Glad to have your feedback. You're welcome!
    Jan 7 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calculated Risk And I Have Made A Bet On Housing's Direction In 2014 [View article]
    Indeed. CR has not been a perma-optimist. He called the housing bubble. He called the recovery. It doesn't mean he will always be right in the future, but he clearly tries go where the data take him. Of course, folks thought CR was nuts at the time. I latched onto him after I discovered he had the same opinion about the timing of a recovery that I had.
    Jan 4 04:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calculated Risk And I Have Made A Bet On Housing's Direction In 2014 [View article]
    I agree that this is a classic half-full/empty debate. And it has really been going on since at least the recession went into full swing.

    Past correlations are always important to monitor but context is also important. A rise in rates by 1% here is a large relative jump but in absolute terms, rates are still extremely low. I think this spring selling season will be one of the more heavily anticipated ones in a while!
    Jan 3 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Australian Dollar Starts The Year With A Bias For Bottoming [View article]
    First of all, it seems folks are finally coming around to my near year-long bearishness on the Canadian dollar! :) I am not so sure about deflation but my standing, fundamental premise and observation has been that the high value of teh Canadian dollar has hurt its economic performance. The impact on exports has been notable.

    Thanks for the link. I am actually a bit surprised at just how bearish the forecast is! My target was 1.08 which I see DB sees this quarter. That would match exactly my target given I had it on a one year horizon. After that, I have no idea. I like to take things one step at a time and need more info - like econ data and the Bank of Canada's next few statements on monetary policy - to really feel comfortable dreaming anything above 1.10 or so this year.
    Jan 2 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Australian Dollar And Japanese Yen Enter 2014 Joined At The Hip - A Split Could Be Telling [View article]
    I agree on the other crosses - never would have imagined them up THIS high!

    I hadn't heard about the savings program. Seems pretty dangerous. Institutional investors then must be driving up the Nikkei in anticipation of new blood coming into the water. That surely will be a time to sell, at least or a short-term trade?
    Jan 2 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter rebounds, call option buying picks up [View news story]
    Not sure what data the WSJ is looking at. According the Schaeffer's Investment Research, the open interest put/call ratio plunged below 1 on Friday when Twitter surged to the moon (and likely topped out for a good while (http://seekingalpha.co...).

    I also don't get the advice of telling trader to avoid options because they are "expensive." The shares are expensive too. The options are getting more expensive because traders expect Twitter's "range of motion" to greatly expand. Traders who are directionally correct will be fine as long as Twitter doesn't come to a sudden stop and just bounces in a tight range. And with these technicals, hard to imagine Twitter staying put for long.
    Dec 31 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The British Pound And Euro Surge Despite Higher U.S. Rates [View article]
    I can understand euro strength if folks are convinced there is "safety" there, but I never buy a currency for safety. :) It is an odd kind of safety when most major central banks remain firmly aligned against the (strong) appreciation of their currencies. For that reason, I can't even dream of the pound reach $2 against US anytime soon! But $1.66 seems very reasonable of course...
    Dec 30 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The British Pound And Euro Surge Despite Higher U.S. Rates [View article]
    The best I can put it is a few big traders taking advantage of low liquidity to take out stops and clear out a path to shorting the euro at better (higher) levels. Let's see what happens once 2014 is underway...
    Dec 30 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The British Pound And Euro Surge Despite Higher U.S. Rates [View article]
    It just seems like there are two forces pulling directly against each other here. If the market truly fears disintegration, political and economic instability, etc... then it seems the euro should be sold quickly and readily. Bidding up the currency on deflation fears will include a belief that it is better to be in those euros than dollars, for example, when/if calamity strikes. Moreover, the ECB will not idly sit by and watch deflation pick up steam....or will it? (yikes)
    Dec 30 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Australian Dollar And Japanese Yen Enter 2014 Joined At The Hip - A Split Could Be Telling [View article]
    Well, support on AUD/USD is holding for now. I am keeping a sharp and wary eye on it. Either way, I think 2014 will be one of those pivotal years.

    By the way, do you follow Kyle Bass? What do you think of his astronomical targets on USD/JPY 200, 350 and up?!?
    Dec 30 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The British Pound And Euro Surge Despite Higher U.S. Rates [View article]
    So if I understand you correctly, you would tend to bet on currencies where their cost of inputs for production is most likely to go down significantly more than the other side of currency pair?
    Dec 30 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The British Pound And Euro Surge Despite Higher U.S. Rates [View article]
    Do you think that explains trader preferences to buy the euro over the US dollar?
    Dec 30 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Australian Dollar And Japanese Yen Enter 2014 Joined At The Hip - A Split Could Be Telling [View article]
    That's pretty ironic for Abe - trigger inflation in the country and watch in horror as companies refuse to give wage increases. I guess Abe thought wage pressures would be automatic. Should be interesting to see what happens to policy if people find that all this inflation is only make the standard of living even worse.

    Just another example of how regular folks seem to be he last on the totem pole to benefit from extremes in monetary policy.
    Dec 30 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter's Recent Run-Up Reaching A Likely Crescendo [View article]
    Yes, I am trying *hard* to stay neutral even though my gut, trigger-finger reaction is indeed to call this insane. But I tempered myself after seeing shorts are already ramping and the analyst consensus is decidedly bearish. This is one fascinating, volatile mix of signals. I can't wait for earnings.
    Dec 27 12:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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