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Dr. Duru

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  • Growing Stalemate: Housing Starts, Affordability And Sentiment Vs. Student Debt [View article]
    No connection between the ominous signs in the Australian dollar and my sentiment on housing. I think folks who pay attention to housing are VERY tuned into risk just because the scars run so deep from the popping of the housing bubble. Still, any market pullback will likely take housing-related stocks down as well. That would be a very buyable dip. More worrisome would be a setback in a wide watch of housing fundamentals.

    Note I just posted an article about the growing complacency about risk and the role of monetary policy. That might also sound strange given I am bullish about housing stocks! The way to differentiate is timeframes. I am looking at housing as still a multi-year opportunity. The overall complacency in financial markets could be swiped clean in a matter of months...
    May 27 02:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad Signs: The Australian Dollar Trips As Iron Ore Stumbles Over $100 [View article]
    One issue is that the problems in China have been very clear for many years now. And predictions of a collapse fail to bear fruit year-after-year. Perhaps it will happen one day. But it seems that the outcome, and particularly the timing, is next to impossible to predict. I certainly would not look to any given season or month for a pay-off on related bets.
    May 26 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growing Stalemate: Housing Starts, Affordability And Sentiment Vs. Student Debt [View article]
    Interesting pairs trade! I like it. I will have to do more thinking on those kinds of plays given it could take some time for resolution of these various signals. I also need to look up Bill Miller's latest commentary.
    May 21 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad Signs: The Australian Dollar Trips As Iron Ore Stumbles Over $100 [View article]
    Still waiting for India. Right now, the current export restrictions must be artificially deflating prices within the country (and providing at least amrginal support to global prices).
    May 21 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hints Of Bottoming For Twitter [View article]
    Thanks for the commentary everyone. If we are representative of opinion on TWTR, it seems there are wide price swings ahead...meaning plenty of trading opportunity for both bears and bulls. If TWTR will be as volatile as suggested here, the options are TWTR sure look cheap!

    Like some of you, if TWTR were to drop to $20 or below, I would become VERY interested in buying for a long-term investment. I have been around long enough to see promising companies like this given little credit in the beginning, only to look up a few years later kicking myself for not taking the risk. But I also think this is how the IPO market SHOULD work: a lot of skepticism in the beginning that makes companies prove themselves. The whole IPO hype machine we have seen recently has brought back some ugly distortions, including flaming out companies that could have done much better by focusing on business rather than cashing out insiders. Just my two cent soapbox...
    May 17 07:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hints Of Bottoming For Twitter [View article]
    Note that sentiment is not just about technicals. It also represents an approximation of the market's assessment about a stock's prospects. That assessment can be based on a wide variety of factors that may not even be knowable. For example, concluding that Twitter is a good/bad company will at some point play out in some sentiment indicator whether it is price/volume action, options, analyst action, or collective commentary on the stock in blogs, feeds, etc...
    May 17 06:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hints Of Bottoming For Twitter [View article]
    I think you are not giving Twitter enough credit. The platform is still very early in its innovation cycle. Time will always tell. The upgrades are indeed small and early. I am only pointing out that the sentiment is beginning to turn and that the reaction so far to the plummet in price post-lockup has been more "tire kicking" as things finally look more interesting at these levels.
    May 16 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hints Of Bottoming For Twitter [View article]
    No problem. I enjoyed your piece as well.
    May 16 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst Downgrade Drives Tri Pointe Homes Toward Better Entry Point [View article]
    I am about to read through the report soon. I hope to write about what I find and my opinion. I am long and staying long and definitely willing to buy more at a discount.
    May 7 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Residential Employment Plows Ahead As Housing Indicators Stabilize [View article]
    Cash buyers are back?
    May 6 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Stocks Got You Down? Try A Low-Risk Trade On The S&P 500 For A Change [View article]
    Thanks for the feedback. I have admittedly ignored the fallout from the Lewis book because nothing he said is new. We have known those details since HFT first hit the scene in a big way in the financial crisis and particularly during the "Flash Crash." But I could be seriously under-estimating the impact on mainstream market participants.

    Short-term traders and momentum traders don't really care much about bargains. They care more that OTHER people think there are bargains...
    Apr 8 05:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bankruptcy Trade: Coldwater Creek Gets Colder [View article]
    Update: clearly, the trade was NOT over in just one day as day #2 brought even larger gains for CWTR! It closed up another 45% and was over a double at the highs of the day. While I missed day #2, this sharp bounce back is another validation of the strategy described here. But monitoring risk/reward is of utmost importance now: CWTR *could* roll out a concession to the rumors at any time.
    Apr 2 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shows More Cracks In Momentum Stocks, Even As Divergent Signals Abound [View article]
    I have definitely been hearing about two related impacts: traders over-leveraged in momentum names getting forced to purge; and some profit-taking to chase other names. "Other names" could become value stocks and other relatively "cheaper" stocks. I noticed that earlier today SPLV managed to crack new all-time highs... Also intriguing for the international commodity/construction... scene: CAT cracked $100 for the first time in almost two years today....

    Thanks for reading and thanks for the feedback.
    Mar 31 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overreaction To Yellen Rate 'Guidance' Drives Fresh Breakout For U.S. Dollar Against Canadian Dollar [View article]
    By the time rates go up, we wont' remember what a rate hike looks like...and perhaps the market will be the one forcing it.
    Mar 21 04:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Settling For Range-Bound Trading In Homebuilders [View article]
    Where indeed are the first time homebuyers. Mostly locked out because of tight credit conditions. The catalyst for loosening will be a healthier economy....which of course might need looser credit conditions as a precursor (part of the nice, endless loop the Fed is playing in rationalizing loose monetary policy). From what I have read in home builder earning reports, the issue is not being addressed head on as an ultimate cap on prospects. But once first-timers come in, I am guessing a next leg up will finally get underway. Could be a while yet....
    Mar 19 05:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment