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Dr. Duru  

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  • The Bank Of Canada Confirmed A Bearish Turn For The Canadian Dollar [View article]
    The AUD/CAD trade to me is VERY complicated! The countries are the same but different: Canada heavily relies on the U.S., Australia relies heavily on China. So, you are really trying to weigh the U.S. versus China in that trade.

    I agree the Bank of Canada is effectively panicking right now. The REserve Bank of Australia has not yet panicked. When (if?) they do, the Australian dollar will go plunging. I am increasingly bearish on the Australian dollar. I just haven't had a chance to write my latest thoughts. Coming soon!
    Jul 25, 2015. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bank Of Canada Confirmed A Bearish Turn For The Canadian Dollar [View article]
    In general, yes, I am bullish on the U.S. dollar. I think the path forward is complicated though. If after the first rate hike, the Fed indicates the path higher will be even longer than expected, the dollar could actually peak. I have to believe the Fed is increasingly concerned with the accelerating collapse in commodities and global economic weakness. If so, the Fed will be proceeding with even MORE caution. The U.S. in recession could send scared currency traders to the Japanese yen instead of the dollar, but the dollar should still perform better than the Canadian dollar, for example, under such a scenario. But first things first, let's see whether the U.S. dollar index can achieve a new high. It is currently still struggling at the downtrend from the March high: http://bit.ly/1Knk5H4
    Jul 25, 2015. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bank Of Canada Confirmed A Bearish Turn For The Canadian Dollar [View article]
    I know. But I never expected that Canada would firmly place itself on the declining slop of policy divergence! Per Poloz (and Carney before him), it is VERY rare to see Canada and the U.S. on such divergent tracks for monetary policy.
    Jul 24, 2015. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources can still hit $6, analyst says [View news story]
    Such a lofty goal....that's where CLF traded 2 months ago!

    I too am skeptical. How can CLF even hit $5 or $4 by year-end the way things are crumbling in the commodity complex...? I think the company will be doing good just to stay alive...
    Jul 23, 2015. 03:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Constraints Still Weigh Heavily On The Housing Industry [View article]
    I like the term "controlled" inventory. I have to explore that more.
    Jul 22, 2015. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bank Of England Will Act - It's Time To Short The Pound [View article]
    Well, I enjoy you are trying to look for the contrary loophole in the consensus view. I just listened to a podcast (Hard Currency) where once again the analyst talked about the "race" between the BoE and the Fed for starting rate hikes. Carney's commentary this week has generally been seen as firming up further the rate hike story by end of this year...
    Jul 17, 2015. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Positions To Stay In The Euro At Any Cost [View article]
    I think Iceland is a great example. And like the Icelandic people, the Greek people seemed prepared to default and take the pain now. The politicians have weakened. Your post is a reminder to me that I need to read a comprehensive history on how Iceland righted its ship. Any recommended sources?
    Jul 16, 2015. 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bank Of England Will Act - It's Time To Short The Pound [View article]
    Your opinion stands in direct contrast to what I thought was an increasing sense that the Bank of England would act to RAISE rates soon. The BoE has said earlier it is looking past this drop in inflation and has neatly explained the temporary factors behind it. Why do you not believe the factors behind low inflation are temporary and why should the BoE act contrary to what is an overall strengthening in the economy?
    Jul 15, 2015. 02:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Positions To Stay In The Euro At Any Cost [View article]
    Agreed. Amazing how this issue has simply been kicked and kicked and kicked down the road all the while pretending another solution will emerge...
    Jul 14, 2015. 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Positions To Stay In The Euro At Any Cost [View article]
    Called the bluff big time. Very embarrassing for Tsipras.
    Jul 14, 2015. 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale’s "cut" not likely to improve iron ore prices [View news story]
    This was all clear in VALE's original statement. I am surprised the original reporting did not catch this. It shouldn't have taken the major analyst houses to point this out. The price action is now mainly sentiment driven and is really jittery....
    Jul 14, 2015. 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shrinking Australian Dollar [View article]
    Definitely stick to your knitting and your comfortzone. But I STILL like buying USD/JPY on dips. Just sold my latest trade on that. The interest in "Safety" in the yen will eventually end, and when it does, the yen should resume its prior weakness with a vengeance. In the meantime, I focus on "singles and doubles." ON a chart basis, USD/JPY is at a critical juncture now that it has completely reversed the last big breakout to multi-year highs (see May 26th).
    Jul 10, 2015. 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shrinking Australian Dollar [View article]
    Chinese investment in Australian real estate has been a hot topic for a while. It will be interesting to see whether decreasing liquidity in Chinese markets will make wealthy Chinese MORE interested in parking their money overseas in more stable places like Australia. Perhaps the Chinese government will eventually establish controls on such investments as well.
    Jul 10, 2015. 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shrinking Australian Dollar [View article]
    Not yet ready to throw up the deflation flag, but, yes, China's pullback is pressuring everything related downward.
    Jul 10, 2015. 01:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shrinking Australian Dollar [View article]
    And I have an obvious addendum - with iron ore sinking 10% today, the outlook just got even bleaker...

    http://bloom.bg/1D1kIkk
    Jul 8, 2015. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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