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Dr. Duru  

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  • Foreign Exchange Frustrates [View article]
    So it seems to me that Bernanke's talk about these economic targets providing automatic stabilizers is his last attempt to buffer the economy from the Fiscal Cliff. Presumably, if the US economy goes over the cliff, these stabilizers will work to reassure markets that the Fed is there with a cushion of liquidity.

    The SNB was indeed anti-climactic, but at least the Fed did not disappoint in helping to support the latest phase in the euro bounce.

    What do you think about the euro going forward from here though? Seems like this rally is finally getting long in the tooth...
    Dec 13, 2012. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Roads Lead To A Lower Yen [View article]
    I agree that the BoJ will now be motivated to do even MORE easing. They have been constantly losing the battle in competitive devaluations against the Fed, but it seems these comments about infinite printing are finally doing the trick. Ironically, they are somewhat taking a page out of Bernanke's book. A while back (I can't remember the exact reference right now), Bernanke noted that it should be easy to devalue a currency. Just keep buying global assets with printed money. At some point, the markets will drop the currency, otherwise, you would eventually buy all the assets on the planet... The markets have been stubborn in fighting central bank will, but, presumably, markets would not get THAT stubborn....
    Dec 13, 2012. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where's The Bottom For The Yen? [View article]
    So the yen weakened even further after the Fed announcement. Any thoughts on what is going on there? Seems to me that the coming Japanese elections trumps all else for now.

    Looking at the yen crosses, the major ones are all overbought based on where they trade relative to the upper Bollinger Band. The yen crosses stopped last month when such milestones were hit, but instead of a big pullback, they just traded sideways for a while before resuming their climb (weak yen). Such a scenario seems likely to happen again here rather than an outright squeeze.

    I don't see a specific catalyst now for sustained strength in the yen, especially if it is falling out of favor as "safe." Instead, it is looking like a great funding currency, especially against the Aussie.
    Dec 13, 2012. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stubborn Put Option Action Continues In Cognizant Technology [View article]
    That is complicated by earnings coming in January. Assuming that goes as well as expected, I would target $82.50 within 3 months, just short of a fresh all-time high.
    Dec 12, 2012. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp (MCP) says CEO Mark Smith has resigned; no explanation is offered. Board vice chairman Constantine Karayannopoulos is named interim president and chief executive. Shares -6.3% AH. [View news story]
    Exactly. The insider buying on this stock, since last year, including by Smith at much higher prices, has got to be one of the more bizarre insider-buying episodes I have seen. One has to wonder whether the SEC investigation is somehow tied to it.
    Dec 12, 2012. 01:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar's Breakout Demonstrates The Opportunity In Utility-Scale Projects Despite Ongoing Risks [View article]
    Thanks for the additional note. Would definitely be useful to plot out those potential future parcels and guesstimate the value of the pipeline that would get installed there....
    Dec 10, 2012. 07:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Likely More To Groupon's Bullish Turn Than Questionable Rumors [View article]

    Yes, flat revenues, flat growth are definite negatives. But let me know what your look at the numbers tell you - that is, whether this business still has a chance to save itself. At 1x sales now, even a modest recovery should make this stock a double in less than a year when I measure valuation relative to other internet names.

    For now, I am focused on the opportunity 4-6 weeks out.
    Dec 8, 2012. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stubborn Australian Dollar Becomes Attractive Way To Play Yen Weakness [View article]
    Amazing. Again, thanks for the heads up.
    Dec 8, 2012. 12:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KB Home Shines Again But Keep An Eye On California's Recovering Housing Market [View article]
    I have to assume profit-taking before year ends. I am definitely buying the dip at some point soon, but the correction relative to year's gains is still very mild.
    Dec 6, 2012. 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • British Pound Breaks Out After Uneventful Summer Olympics In London [View article]
    Are there any specifics you need? The overall impact looked pretty minimal - see the first chart above: the pound started to rise well after the Olympics were already over. Certainly the economic impact was found to be minimal.
    Dec 6, 2012. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stubborn Australian Dollar Becomes Attractive Way To Play Yen Weakness [View article]
    Thanks for that additional background. I sometimes read that "the banks have confirmed passing on the rate cut," and I never think twice about that. A fascinating dynamic! I will look a little deeper into the bank stocks.
    Dec 5, 2012. 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Picking Homebuilder Stocks For 2013 [View article]
    The publicly traded homebuilders are largely focused on single-family. Some are now getting into property management which I believe has included some multi-family, but that remains a very small part of the business. Pulte comes to mind there.

    Tax-loss carryforwards certainly propped up many of the surviving builders. But many (particularly private) builders still went bankrupt. You can see in the earnings reports from a few years ago commentary about how smaller builders were getting squeezed out due to lack of capital strength. These tax breaks were not enough to prevent massive destruction in the industry.

    Going forward, the surviving builders that emerge tend to be the ones with the strongest financial positions.
    Dec 3, 2012. 08:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Picking Homebuilder Stocks For 2013 [View article]
    I didn't mean to deify McBride, no one deserves that. But his basic premise is what stuck with me - eventually, population growth/household formation would put pressure on an industry where inventories have become scarce due to a lack of sufficient building. What McBride missed on the tax commentary is that Proposition 30 was supposed to be designed to balance the budget - assuming the economy continues to recover 2013 (and robustly I think!). So, yes, he is not perfect, but I am not letting the lack of perfection be the enemy of the good. There are valuable nuggets in what he has to say.
    And, yes, there were still plenty of people in 2006 who could throw out lots of statistics and "facts" to explain and rationalize how prices at that time were not bubblicious. And because they made fools out of everyone who thought a 200% or 300% run-up was a bubble, they could continue to rationalize 400%, etc... and remain confident.
    Dec 3, 2012. 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Picking Homebuilder Stocks For 2013 [View article]
    Normally, a 15% pullback would be good enough to start nibbling, but these names have run-up so much that a 15% drop is not too bad. From a technical standpoint, several of the stoks look vulnerable to further pullbacks, and all it might take is some random, negative Fiscal Cliff headline and another 10% is gone in a flash. So, I leave it to your own risk tolerance to determine when/where/how. For now, I am remaining patient even if that means I wait until 2013 guidance comes out.
    Dec 3, 2012. 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Picking Homebuilder Stocks For 2013 [View article]
    Definitely send me some feedback on the T2108 analysis. I would like to keep them relevant!
    Dec 3, 2012. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment