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Dr. Duru

 
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  • The San Juan Trust: Buying 18 Cents For A Dollar [View article]
    I was wondering the same thing. I am guessing the author uses a 10% discount rate to imply that SJT is extremely risky. But of course using a high discount rate to prove that something is a risky investment is a bit circular. It would be useful to see multiple scenarios with more realistic discount rates.
    Jun 2, 2012. 10:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Dollar's Rally Ends (For Now?) At Its 'QE2 Reference Price' [View article]
    Needless to say, there are a LOT of government officials across the globe scrambling right now...!
    Jun 1, 2012. 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Dollar's Rally Ends (For Now?) At Its 'QE2 Reference Price' [View article]
    Yeah - timing is far from obvious. Fed could even decide to wait for confirmation that jobs numbers are in a protracted decline. That could take one or two more reports. Then again, the eurozone crisis may not afford them any luxuries.
    Jun 1, 2012. 08:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From The Trade On Joy Global's Earnings: The Importance Of Context [View article]
    Thanks, Canis!
    I think a pairs trade is the only way to go at this point. Either stock may be good for oversold bounces but overall macro-doom and gloom is going to cap rallies for now and apply additional pressure. I also didn't see much to cry about with JOY's earnings. But, as I said, fear conquers hope right now!
    Jun 1, 2012. 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correlations Are Broken But Australian Dollar Still Leads The S&P 500 [View article]
    I would argue Aussie is already falling hard and fast, but, regardless, I am definitely being careful with the longs....
    May 27, 2012. 06:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Why One More Major Correction Still Lies Ahead [View article]
    Great idea, Paul. But can I ask you for more details? For example, say the null hypothesis holds and that there is no relationship amongst the three corrections over time. How does this result translate into a null hypothesis that three corrections must occur before every bull market? Or did I misunderstand your approach?

    Also, are you implying that because of these changes in index composition over time that we also should not expect long-term historical returns to hold? In particular, the long-standing assumptions about things like stocks beating bonds in any 20-year period, retirement calculators that assume whatever is the current assumed long-term return. At first blush, I was thinking Eric's thesis is independent of index composition as long as there are no dramatic changes between bull markets. Or at least the changes that occur continue to be made to reflect the overall market and/or economy...that is, the bias in index construction remains constant over time.
    May 26, 2012. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Yet Another Pairs Trade As Juniper Networks And Cisco Systems Plunge [View article]
    Interesting! I did not see that news. So reduced dilution, right? But could it also reflect reduced confidence in the ability for the shares to hold their value?
    May 26, 2012. 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Siemens AG Trades On The Edge As German Manufacturing Continues To Contract [View article]
    Care to provide a few more details? I am not too familiar with the operations in China...
    May 25, 2012. 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pound Continues To Break Down [View article]
    Ah, I see. Well, it all depends on the timeframes. As long as fear dominates in the financial markets and the global economy is grinding down, the pound should have a disadvantage against the U.S. dollar. I agree that the pound gets the advantage on the other side of their austerity program.
    May 25, 2012. 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ReneSola Will Survive A Solar Recession [View article]
    ...and insiders keep buying this stock on the cheap! I haven't looked at SOL in a while, but I will be doing so again soon to check whether my expectations for survival through a solar recession are proving accurate.
    May 25, 2012. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Positioning More Bearishly Vs. The Australian Dollar As It Loses 2012′s Gains [View article]
    I agree with you. LNG is a longer-term play though. In the short-term, the slowing global economy is putting constant downward pressure on the Aussie. I currently think it SHOULD stabilize around parity with the U.S. dollar. From the low 90s on down, the Australian dollar becomes a great buy for a longer-term play.
    May 25, 2012. 07:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pound Continues To Break Down [View article]
    Times change. Are you suggesting that the pound will once again rise to return as the world's reserve currency?
    May 24, 2012. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Gold And Silver Reawaken, It's Time To Buy Especially Cheap Miners [View article]
    Hi Maher - not sure what happened. As GH mentions, it was probably a technical glitch. I believe I have answered your questions in email. Now that your comment made it, we should continue the discussion here, so that others can contribute to the discussion if they so choose.

    To that end, here is my first response in our exchange for anyone interested (also posted here: http://bit.ly/JMRI95):
    -- --- --

    Woah – ok. The comparison to the NASDAQ bubble is pretty compelling for silver, but gold is not quite following the pattern, right? I hate to get too technical for gold and silver because I have very fundamental reasons for wanting to stay in both. With Fleck as confident as ever, I am even more loathe to depart from the gameplan. I do agree with you that a break to fresh lows (a break of support) WILL be a technically important event and cause me some consternation as well. Until that happens, I am full steam ahead. One option to consider is hedging a bit with something like a little ZSL or even selling calls (or buying puts) against existing positions.

    I would love to hear Fleck’s gameplan if China collapses into a deflationary funk. It seems to me such an event could be very destructive for gold and silver in the short-run but incredibly bullish after the collapse, just like 2008-2009…

    Thanks for dropping this note!
    May 24, 2012. 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Gold And Silver Reawaken, It's Time To Buy Especially Cheap Miners [View article]
    New one on me. It is definitely under-performing SLV: http://bit.ly/LtftOg

    But it was out-performing for the first several months of its existence.

    So, hard to tell what to do on this one!
    May 24, 2012. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Gold And Silver Reawaken, It's Time To Buy Especially Cheap Miners [View article]
    Thanks. And of course I have to give credit to Fleck on that one. The man is a paragon of discipline. I wish I had half of what he has.
    May 24, 2012. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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