Weak Consumer Confidence: Time to Buy? [View article]
I think the monster rally on 10/28 should be treated as an outlier. Take that data point out and you get an even more modest 0.39% average gain. I think that is too small ("in the noise") to generate a strong trading strategy? Perhaps it could be improved by buying the typical dip (or plunge) AFTER the survey results are announced - assuming the data comes during trading hours.
Fund Managers Attempt to Calm Nervous Investors [View article]
Author note: this piece is not really about the collapse of the bubble. It is more about the message I received from my fund manager. Original title: "Keep Investing: Nothing to Worry About Here"
Follow the Mutual Funds: Solar Is Bottoming [View article]
It would be good to know when else these funds have added purchases of shares. Since they have existing holdings, I can only assume that late Nov is not the only time they have added to holdings....and that would mean that their buying is not a strong bullish signal. The latest bounce in solar stocks is also not the first. The bounce alone is not sufficient to mark a bottom. For example, FSLR ran up 70% in late October and into the election, only to make fresh 52-week lows by Nov 20.
Deflation Is Worse Than the CPI Indicates [View article]
Interesting. I would like to get my hands on more hard data though to fill out the anecdotes. Regardless, these government statistics are always suspect, and I always felt they under-estimated inflation on the way up. So, under-estimating deflation wouldn't be a surprise.
Surprised that you cite Kohn's comments as evidence the Fed isn't taking deflation seriously. I think the Fed is taking deflation extremely seriously given all the action and speeches to date. If the money supply numbers show cash hoarding, it is just evidence of how tough a job the Fed (and Treasury) continues to have and why it continues to come up with more and more acronyms to get this thing going!
Finally, also surprised that you cite Ford's campaign against inflation as an example of what Obama should do about deflation (note that Obama has already explained the dangers of deflation in one of his addresses to the nation). Ford failed to tame inflation. It was Fed Chair Volcker who finally stamped it out with forceful rate hikes and a withering recession in the latter Carter years and early Reagan years.
Note that as of typing, my submission contains a few numerical errors on calculating returns. I hope to get them fixed soon (they are corrected in the original piece on my site). The return on the call spread is 200%. And the straight call required Buffet's warrants to be 14% in-the-money to get a 200% return in January, 2010.
Sunil94062: I would love more detail on how you came up with your valuation model...
What to Do Now With Solar Energy Stocks [View article]
As usual, the commentary on any article related to solar stocks combines insightful rebuttal, entertaining rants, and opinion presented without bothering to read the original piece carefully. Here are my responses for various things I can respond to - in case it still matters to anyone: 1. Sol Invictus: Shares short from nasdaq.com 2. 31October and jcordes: clarification on LDK - My article says that my original thesis on financing turned out to be wrong. 3. Bob55: I recommend you review my articles again to get clarification on where I have stood short-term vs long-term in solar. Summary, short-term lots of risks remains for solar and I have been one to under-estimate just how bad things could get. In the long-term, I am positive on solar using just a few select positions that I am willing to hold through the short-term problems. 4. dr hoodoo: It's "Tootie" not "Tootsie" 5. jcordes: I had no comment on SOL, I offered no personal opinion on poly supplies. I provided quotes from analysts on THEIR opinions.
Is Jim Cramer Right? Is Apple Really a Market Barometer? [View article]
I did use a one-day delay and results worsened. Both charts show those results. The correlations also include a look at 1-day time lag. I stopped there because I saw nothing that told me it was worth the time to make this analysis even more complicated. Cramer presented no evidence of predictive power (outside of one trading day where the S&P futures were limit down in the pre-market), and I thikn it's dangerous to base investing advice and especially trading advice on "spirits." I would love for someone to take this analysis a step further, but I doubt it's worth anyone's time to do so given what we see here.
What didn't make this copy of my original article is that I also recognize that this analysis does not tells us whether AAPL performs better than any other stock as a market barometer. If that were the case, it is also understandable why Cramer could make the mistake he did.
On Nov 09 08:47 AM win wrote:
> I think Cramer may have been speaking of Apple's predictive value. > Simultaneous price correlation and the other tools you use would > be useless to assess this metric. Instead, I would use a delay of > one day and assess AAPL's price correlation with the SP, then 2 days > and so on up to 5 days. Then I would do the same on a weekly chart. > That is one way of measuring predictive value.
I agree with "investor88" - based on this list (minus insurance machinery), the broader stock market is likely a value trap. Would have been interesting for Merrill to accompany their value trap sectors with sectors that they consider investable now.
On Nov 09 09:14 AM investor88 wrote:
> Most interesting article. Energy a value trap, may well be! Going > one step further, isn't the broad equity market [ and other asset > markets ] a value trap too in the light of deteriorating fundmentals?
Did the SEC's No-Short List Impact Stock Prices? [View article]
Fine. If what you claim is true, then the SEC, or any agency for that matter, should not engage in market manipulation unless it knows how to measure the impact its actions will have. It's very dangerous to engage in policy knowing in advance you will have no idea whether what you are doing is working or not. This piece was intended to examine the directly stated goals of this edict using as simple a case as possible.
America Will Print as Much Money as It Takes [View article]
Yes, indeed. Plenty of folks are borrowing and the whole point of flooding the system with liquidity is to provide plenty of incentive to lend and borrow. David D: Yes, part of the point of inflation is to help borrowers. Essentially, you get more dollars to pay down existing debt. Under such a situation, housing prices *should* increase...as well as a whole host of physical assets. Workers will no doubt demand more dollars from employers to cover higher prices, etc... The Federal Reserve likes to think it knows how to perfectly balance price stability and economic growth. I will let you judge the historical record...especially the latest one!
Bank on Goldman - Cramer's Stop Trading! (9/22/09) [View article]
Why is Cramer surprised GS was down on Monday? He advised his own viewers to sell into the Th/Fri rally. Jim Cramer can be all over the place and hard to follow for actionable advice.
Weak Consumer Confidence: Time to Buy? [View article]
Inflation on 'Sale' as Deflation DominatesMarkets [View article]
Fund Managers Attempt to Calm Nervous Investors [View article]
Follow the Mutual Funds: Solar Is Bottoming [View article]
Deflation Is Worse Than the CPI Indicates [View article]
Regardless, these government statistics are always suspect, and I always felt they under-estimated inflation on the way up. So, under-estimating deflation wouldn't be a surprise.
Surprised that you cite Kohn's comments as evidence the Fed isn't taking deflation seriously. I think the Fed is taking deflation extremely seriously given all the action and speeches to date. If the money supply numbers show cash hoarding, it is just evidence of how tough a job the Fed (and Treasury) continues to have and why it continues to come up with more and more acronyms to get this thing going!
Finally, also surprised that you cite Ford's campaign against inflation as an example of what Obama should do about deflation (note that Obama has already explained the dangers of deflation in one of his addresses to the nation). Ford failed to tame inflation. It was Fed Chair Volcker who finally stamped it out with forceful rate hikes and a withering recession in the latter Carter years and early Reagan years.
Betting on Goldman's Future [View article]
Sunil94062: I would love more detail on how you came up with your valuation model...
What to Do Now With Solar Energy Stocks [View article]
Here are my responses for various things I can respond to - in case it still matters to anyone:
1. Sol Invictus: Shares short from nasdaq.com
2. 31October and jcordes: clarification on LDK - My article says that my original thesis on financing turned out to be wrong.
3. Bob55: I recommend you review my articles again to get clarification on where I have stood short-term vs long-term in solar. Summary, short-term lots of risks remains for solar and I have been one to under-estimate just how bad things could get. In the long-term, I am positive on solar using just a few select positions that I am willing to hold through the short-term problems.
4. dr hoodoo: It's "Tootie" not "Tootsie"
5. jcordes: I had no comment on SOL, I offered no personal opinion on poly supplies. I provided quotes from analysts on THEIR opinions.
Is Jim Cramer Right? Is Apple Really a Market Barometer? [View article]
What didn't make this copy of my original article is that I also recognize that this analysis does not tells us whether AAPL performs better than any other stock as a market barometer. If that were the case, it is also understandable why Cramer could make the mistake he did.
On Nov 09 08:47 AM win wrote:
> I think Cramer may have been speaking of Apple's predictive value.
> Simultaneous price correlation and the other tools you use would
> be useless to assess this metric. Instead, I would use a delay of
> one day and assess AAPL's price correlation with the SP, then 2 days
> and so on up to 5 days. Then I would do the same on a weekly chart.
> That is one way of measuring predictive value.
Energy: A Value Trap - Merrill [View article]
On Nov 09 09:14 AM investor88 wrote:
> Most interesting article. Energy a value trap, may well be! Going
> one step further, isn't the broad equity market [ and other asset
> markets ] a value trap too in the light of deteriorating fundmentals?
Looking for Something Different From Intel [View article]
Did the SEC's No-Short List Impact Stock Prices? [View article]
America Will Print as Much Money as It Takes [View article]
David D: Yes, part of the point of inflation is to help borrowers. Essentially, you get more dollars to pay down existing debt. Under such a situation, housing prices *should* increase...as well as a whole host of physical assets. Workers will no doubt demand more dollars from employers to cover higher prices, etc... The Federal Reserve likes to think it knows how to perfectly balance price stability and economic growth. I will let you judge the historical record...especially the latest one!
Bad Omens from the VIX [View article]
Buying the Paulson Panic [View article]
Bank on Goldman - Cramer's Stop Trading! (9/22/09) [View article]