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Dr. Duru

 
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  • How To Play The End Of Google's 'Nine Lives' Around $600 [View article]
    I like buying $GOOG around $500 or so. I forgot to mention that. Thanks for the reminder!
    May 20 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Triggers Signal To Short - But Do Not Pull The Trigger Yet [View article]
    I stand corrected! For at least today, this was a good time to get short. Not a good sign for the rest of market as AMZN was bidding to be a tech index leader again. I still do not want to *start* a new short with the rest of the market so oversold though.
    May 18 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bottom Drops Out Of ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury And Bearish Signs Increase [View article]
    Still tough for me to trade it until technicals improve again. No telling how deep and long the fear will send people cowering...
    May 16 01:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exports Of Liquefied Natural Gas Add To Evidence Of Bottoming Natural Gas Prices [View article]
    True. I am not expecting this to happen tomorrow. But these are the kinds of developments I am looking for on the horizon to indicate that natural gas is not likely to fall to somewhere just north of zero. Note that I am treating the LNG news as just one more piece in a much larger puzzle: chemical manufacturers moving production back to the U.S., coal power plants switching to nat gas, and who knows what else will eventually come to take advantage of low prices?
    High prices usually cure high prices in commodities as demand destruction eventually overwhelms upward price trends, the same can happen in reverse...
    May 15 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exports Of Liquefied Natural Gas Add To Evidence Of Bottoming Natural Gas Prices [View article]
    Great idea. I will try to devote more attention to it. Australia also has a tremendous nat gas reverse and is a major exporter that the US will compete with.
    May 15 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exports Of Liquefied Natural Gas Add To Evidence Of Bottoming Natural Gas Prices [View article]
    As I mentioned to you in direct messaging, I unfortunately do not follow these stocks. For commodities, I tend to focus more on macro-trends and themes and then identify a few, specific, and focused ways to play them.
    May 15 12:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Post-Acquisition Enthusiasm Fades For Molycorp As Short Interest Continues To Climb [View article]
    I am with you there. The heavy short interest will help propel the stock much higher, but we still need that solid catalyst to kickstart things again...
    May 12 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Post-Acquisition Enthusiasm Fades For Molycorp As Short Interest Continues To Climb [View article]
    Hopefully up! But there is still quite a road to go before all those catalysts line up....
    May 12 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Post-Acquisition Enthusiasm Fades For Molycorp As Short Interest Continues To Climb [View article]
    I just bought some Lynas when it hit a buck again. Should be interesting. A lot of political turmoil remains in Malaysia.
    I agree that these stocks are bobbling around waiting for the next new strong catalyst...
    May 12 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Post-Acquisition Enthusiasm Fades For Molycorp As Short Interest Continues To Climb [View article]
    Until the close, the post-earnings response was looking promising. Now, that $24 level is looking more flimsy. Gulping hard...
    May 12 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Post-Acquisition Enthusiasm Fades For Molycorp As Short Interest Continues To Climb [View article]
    Good catch. I am actually already long preferred shares (I keep forgetting to include them in my disclosures!). How do you purchase and trade them? Available through a regular retail broker?
    May 12 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Post-Acquisition Enthusiasm Fades For Molycorp As Short Interest Continues To Climb [View article]
    I hadn't even considered that the Neo vote could still be an outstanding variable. Any thoughts on how it might not go well?
    May 12 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Smart Vs. Dumb' Money Is Not A Useful Trading Paradigm [View article]
    I like the whale metaphor! Thanks!
    May 11 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Smart Vs. Dumb' Money Is Not A Useful Trading Paradigm [View article]
    I think your paradigm makes sense. It is much more useful to think of the incentives of market makers. Here are some of the data from my study on SPY gaps. The main point of the study was to determine whether an inordinate amount and size of up gaps had been driving the market off its March, 2009 lows, suggesting that the market was floating on little real buying support. (I concluded there was no evidence for that).

    =====

    • Of the 5,311 trading days through the March 6, 2009, lows, 2,205 experienced up gaps, and 1,719 had down gaps.

    • A total of 56 percent of all gaps were up; 765, or 35 percent, of all up gaps evaporated by the close, and all but 23 of these reversals produced losses.

    • 1,095, or 50 percent of up gaps led to gains at the close larger than the gap.

    • 636, or 37 percent, of all down gaps disappeared by the close; all but 23 of these reversals delivered gains.

    • 799, or 46 percent, of all down gaps led to losses at the close larger than the gap.

    Gaps generally tended to indicate the direction of the close. Opening gaps received tepid support given the market extended them only 50 percent of the time.

    Both types of gaps had roughly the same influence on the final close.

    The market’s behavior changed after the March 6, 2009, low. The preponderance of up gaps declined slightly, but their impact increased.

    • 54 percent of gaps were up during these 363 trading days.

    • Only 26 percent of all up gaps evaporated by the close; all were losses.

    • 55 percent of up gaps led to gains at the close larger than the gap.

    Both measures represent notable increases from the prior years. The changes in down gaps have been mixed.

    I found that 35 percent of all down gaps disappeared by the close; all were gains. In addition, 42 percent of down gaps led to losses at the close larger than the gap.
    May 11 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arrows Pointing South For Priceline.com Post-Earnings [View article]
    I hope you managed to beat out the high pre-earnings premiums!
    May 10 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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