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Dr. Duru  

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  • A Surging U.S. Dollar And Carney Overwhelm Bullish Underpinnings For The British Pound [View article]
    If King couldn't beat them down in recent meetings, I highly doubt Carney will! Should be some forex drama though surrounding the coming Inflation Report and the minutes for the MPC meeting.

    I am a bit surprised that rates bounced back so quickly. I guess that is the market waving its finger back at Carney...
    Jul 8, 2013. 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating A 12-Month Range Of 0.86 To 1.02 For The Australian Vs. U.S. Dollar [View article]
    Well, just remember that the projection is for an *average* of 94c. If it comes to pass, holding the 86c level will be difficult!

    Regardless the next 6-12 months may prove to be the most volatile yet for the Aussie as it appears the major central banks are likely to fight higher rates as much as they can....
    Jul 4, 2013. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Noise And Continue Accumulating Gold [View article]
    Yes, the history of paper currencies is full of so much, well, shredded paper. I hope to get to other comments soon. Thanks, everyone.
    Jul 2, 2013. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yen, The Nikkei, And The S&P 500: Watch The Trends And Correlations [View article]
    Thanks for reading.
    Jul 2, 2013. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yen, The Nikkei, And The S&P 500: Watch The Trends And Correlations [View article]
    Good catch! I have to pay closer attention to the intraday timing. It could have significance in terms of who is trying to push things one way or another.
    Jul 2, 2013. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Corn [View article]
    Interesting. I had not considered the angle from Egypt...nor the lingering impact from last year's drought. Thanks...
    Jul 2, 2013. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Corn [View article]
    Agreed. They rarely work over the long-term. Only good for short-term opportunities.
    Jul 2, 2013. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Corn [View article]
    Correct. If subsidies are going down, corn will get more expensive. Subsidies are encouraging increased production. But no need to try to bet ahead of such a thing. Even harder to predict political outcomes, especially on something as contentious as farm subsidies.
    Jul 2, 2013. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Corn [View article]
    Thanks for the additional background. I was more focused on the pattern of extremes tending to reverse over the course of time.
    Jul 2, 2013. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yen, The Nikkei, And The S&P 500: Watch The Trends And Correlations [View article]
    As I type, USD/JPY is finally breaking out above 100. So, I am now transitioning back to a net short yen position.
    Jul 2, 2013. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Distorted Housing Market Gives False Hope [View article]
    When a market is recovering from depression-like conditions, the path to improvement will always provide plenty of data points that things are horrible. This is a spotty, uneven, and lackluster recovery, and so there will always be plenty of things to worry about. Setbacks are a near certainty and offer fresh opportunities to buy in at cheap levels.

    Without investor demand, the housing market would still be in depression-like conditions. That seems pretty clear. The price appreciation that this demand sparked helped generate equity some homeowners otherwise would not have had. Unless we consider it a positive to have housing prices decline well past historic levels of affordability, I think we can be thankful for investor demand as a starting point.

    Now the supply/demand chicken and the egg is that the housing recovery is ephemeral because employment remains awful. Yet, a recovering housing sector is one piece of a larger puzzle to generating more jobs. (And these are jobs that cannot be easily outsourced away.) Same story with other elements of consumer demand. The economy must start somewhere. The housing recovery will get capped if the economy does not demonstrate incremental improvements, but that does not have to be a recipe for disaster either.

    Finally, read some of the earnings reports from homebuilders - they are facing real shortages in materials and labor because the industry has been decimated the past few years. The current uptick demand in many markets is straining a thin industry. These are real constraints. The repair will require adding jobs to the economy and hopefully those jobs will spur other points of economic growth. Time will soon tell.
    Jun 30, 2013. 06:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Toll Brothers Is Immune To The Fed And Could Double In 2 Years [View article]
    I meant "not a problem" of course.
    Jun 30, 2013. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ply Gem - Another Leveraged Latecomer To The Housing Recovery Public Offering Market [View article]
    At what price does PGEM become attractive?
    Jun 30, 2013. 04:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lennar Declares Itself Immune From Higher Interest Rates [View article]
    I like buying the dips. Glad you were able to hold through the nice gains in 2012.

    My assumption has been that after the bottom, the housing market would bump along for a least until the economy's recovery is truly on firm footing.

    I think under-writing standards will only loosen up at that point. Meanwhile, a lot of constraints are going to drive price and costs upward, especially in the hottest markets.

    One thing in the corner of my eye is plunging lumber prices. BCC warned on its earnings results last week primarily blaming lumber prices...
    Jun 29, 2013. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gogo - This Recent Public Offering Is Not Going Yet [View article]
    For comparison purposes, I think it might be fair to compare GOGO to providers of Wifi within airports. I think competitive challengers could come from the myriad of providers who specialize in airport access. On the flip side, GOGO might have an opportunity to expand into airports and provide passengers with layovers a seamless connectivity experience. I am keeping an eye on this one.

    I still remember the bad ol' days of the dotcom must when companies like Metricom went belly-up spending enormous sums of money trying to blanket public areas with internet access. I believe plane internet access was another area they hoped to expand to. They were a classic case of being a little too far ahead of the technology....
    Jun 29, 2013. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment