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Dr. Duru

 
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  • Another Blow-Off Top For Yelp.com [View article]
    Thanks for reminding me about lock-up expiration. That is certainly another big negative. At these prices, insiders will certainly be cashing out as much as they can....THAT after all is the whole point (and beauty) of IPOs, especially in tech.
    Aug 10, 2012. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Blow-Off Top For Yelp.com [View article]
    It is a mystery to me as well. Even more of a mystery why the market decides to like SOME companies with poor business models and high valuation and hate others...all in the same sector or industry.

    My guess it is the work of a few concentrated traders who are playing their flavors of the moment.
    Aug 10, 2012. 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Reserve Bank Of Australia Declares Soft-Landing In China, Focuses On Europe [View article]
    I was again trying to be nuanced. :)
    But, yes, the RBA's assessment is bullish, especially relative to the global macro-economic weakness we have assumed is getting worse.
    The one oddity I forgot to mention is the RBA ending the statement with "with a more subdued international outlook than was the case a few months ago" - a little inconsistent with a stabilized China unless they are trying to imply that Europe is markedly worse!
    Aug 7, 2012. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Important Breakout For The Australian Dollar [View article]
    Thanks for catching that. I didn't nuance his comments even as I was trying not to over-read into it.
    Aug 6, 2012. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Important Breakout For The Australian Dollar [View article]
    I don't follow the Krona but given speculation that the SNB is loading up on it and that the Swedes do not seem to mind a stronger currency, I am a lot more interested than I have ever been!
    Aug 6, 2012. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Important Breakout For The Australian Dollar [View article]
    That's an interesting idea. Like the US Fed supply dollars when demand gets too strong in times of panic. Should be interesting to hear the RBA's commentary this week on the stubborn strength of the currency.
    Aug 6, 2012. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Important Breakout For The Australian Dollar [View article]
    Woah! Thanks for the link. That blows me away.
    I also assume it is food because Australia's commodity index remains high despite a large drop in iron ore and coal prices. Food prices must be helping to even things out.
    Aug 6, 2012. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Important Breakout For The Australian Dollar [View article]
    Thanks. The AAA-rating is something I had completely neglected until the past few days. Not easy to think of the Aussie as a "safe haven" though!
    Aug 6, 2012. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sifting Through The Rubble Of Retail High-Flyers For Potential Trades - Long And Short [View article]
    No problem. I found your piece extremely informative...not to mention sporting a clever title. Glad you have given yourself a lot of runway to allow CMG to take off again.
    Aug 6, 2012. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 5% Decline In The S&P 500 Within 3 Months Would Be A 'Gift' [View article]
    Definitely many different ways to trade. Just be clear on the likely risks versus potential rewards. Thx for kudos and good luck.
    Aug 2, 2012. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 5% Decline In The S&P 500 Within 3 Months Would Be A 'Gift' [View article]
    You're welcome. Thx for kudos.
    Aug 2, 2012. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Australian Dollar Clings To Breakout As Current Catalysts Support Upward Trend [View article]
    Wow. Thanks for the additional background! I was amazed to see that through all this foreign reserve accumulation the SNB registered a profit in the last quarter. I can't imagine that being maintained, but we will see.
    Aug 2, 2012. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Friday's Surge For Arch Coal And Alpha Natural Resources Tell Us? [View article]
    Short data is only published twice a month with a 2-3 week delay.
    Jul 30, 2012. 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Important Macro And Forex Calls And Likely Post-Earnings Recovery [View article]
    Hmmm...nice catch. I have not even bothered to check out Samsung commentary/opinion on the macro environment. This should make for a great compare and contrast.
    Jul 30, 2012. 03:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Dips As The Post-Earnings Trade In Amazon.com Continues To Deliver [View article]
    I think you misinterpreted much of what I wrote. Not sure how to answer all your questions, but I will say that the main background of this call is described in another post on the post-earnings Amazon play that lasts for 2 weeks after each earnings report.

    The slightly confusing part of your critique is that you seem to say multiple things at the same time about the stock's prospects. You seem to suggest that no matter what Amazon delivers in terms of results they will be able to continue to get investors/traders to wait for a better day. Then you say that the market will sell on the news of good results. You also seem to say that the stock chart is bearish or at least not bullish (not sure of the timeframe).

    I am instead suggesting that there enough skeptics about the Amazon story that if they actually produce stellar results for the fourth quarter, these folks may (will?) get converted. That is the extra fuel. I am not sure whether it will be the final hurrah. I will wait until that time comes. If Amazon does not deliver for 4Q, I am suggesting, yes, that this time should be different. The stock should finally sell off. Again, time will tell. And I am definitely not predicting whether or not AMZN will deliver in the fourth quarter.

    Finally on the technicals of the chart: When AMZN finally made new all-time highs in late 2009 it was trading around $113. It consolidated well into 2010 before ramping again and made another double at the last peak in 2011. This pricing action suggests strong buying power that I do not want to underestimate. However, I did provide the conditions under which I would consider shorting the stock.
    Jul 30, 2012. 03:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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