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Dr. Duru  

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  • The Amazon.com Post-Earnings Trade Quickly Turns Bearish [View article]
    The most likely way I make money is for AMZN to trade down another 10% or so by March expiration. I am not expecting it to rebounce back to life anytime soon.

    The perspective on AMZN stock definitely depend on your horizon. But since I think it is highly risky, I am definitely leaning toward playing for a steep correction. Not thinking about a buy point unless it is the next post-earnings round....at the first open.
    Feb 4, 2013. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With A Rate Decision Looming, Weakening Australian Dollar Sends Poor Signal For Stocks [View article]
    Thanks Bankim. I fully agree on your commentary on the RBA. Their public rationale often leaves a LOT to be desired.
    Feb 3, 2013. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency Positioning And Technical Outlook: Interesting Contrarian Opportunities [View article]
    Thanks as always for that perspective. I am now going to keep my eyes wide open for Draghi's address!

    I don't think of the Fed as starting currency wars but it sure seems from public statements by finance ministers that the U.S. gets fingered as the fulcrum point of it all.
    Jan 30, 2013. 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yen Trend Moves On Past Its Initial Disappointment With The Bank Of Japan [View article]
    All good points. And exactly why some in Japan are now fearful the current weakening trend might go too far (which it will - since markets tend to overshoot). So far, the plan for weakening is finally working and likely moved a lot faster than any of the Japanese authorities expected. But if deflation continues, it doesn't mean that the end result will be to stop the printing presses. The government could easily decide that the problem remains not enough printing.

    I always wondered why Japan did not make better use of its strong currency last year and stockpile on (relatively) cheap commodities. (Or maybe they did, and I didn't catch the news).
    Jan 30, 2013. 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency Positioning And Technical Outlook: Interesting Contrarian Opportunities [View article]
    Makes sense. I guess a different way of asking is if the weakest parts of the eurozone do not start picking up along Draghi's second half "rosy" forecast AND the euro is still this high or higher, it seems all eyes will turn to policies to weaken the euro. Active currency "management" seems to be a more and more common tool in the zero-interest rate world.
    Jan 29, 2013. 08:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency Positioning And Technical Outlook: Interesting Contrarian Opportunities [View article]
    At what point do you think the strong euro starts to have a notable drag on the recovery in the eurozone? I know Mervyn King was previously distraught about the low value of EUR/GBP, but he must be ecstatic over the recent strong bounce. So, similarly, how much help do you think the reversal in this pair will provide the stagnant UK economy?
    Jan 28, 2013. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yen Trend Moves On Past Its Initial Disappointment With The Bank Of Japan [View article]
    A weakening economy typically leads to a weaker currency, not a stronger one. In the past, the yen has strengthened on the weakness of *other* economies as traders look for safety. Printing more and more should not make the yen stronger, but stranger things have happened in forex. Part of my argument is that the stage seems set for the BoJ to change its mind later this year and start the pumping before 2014 from government pressure. My guess is that none of this printing will ultimately work to help the real economy. But inflation is what they should eventually get with unlimited printing. Should be interesting once domestic investors start selling their bonds to put money in gold and other assets to protect themselves from a weaker yen.
    Jan 28, 2013. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Australian Dollar Breaks Out And Regains Correlation With The S&P 500 [View article]
    Good luck! I now need to update this article because AUD/USD and the S&P 500 have been out of correlation again. I still think of AUD/USD as a leading indicator.
    Jan 26, 2013. 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilding At The Crossroads Of Changing Demographics [View article]
    That makes sense. Thanks for the additional color. I have yet to read through the LEN conference call. LEN of course operates in certain markets, so I would love to understand whether they are making general statements or whether they are particular to LEN's main areas of business. Neither TOL nor KBH have explained the looming shortages in that way.
    Jan 24, 2013. 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilding At The Crossroads Of Changing Demographics [View article]
    A depression can do that to the psyche. It is hard to accept that a turn-around will eventually happen. The housing recession was so deep and so long-lasting, that it is easy to believe that no one will ever buy a house ever again. And with that mindset, no hint of a recovery is enough to turn thinking around...it takes a raging boom that is obvious as day. By then of course, prices are already soaring and we are well on our way to the next problem...
    Jan 24, 2013. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilding At The Crossroads Of Changing Demographics [View article]
    My last piece on KBH referenced that point. I am in full agreement that the recovery cannot be sustained for too much longer just on investors with plenty of cash and the few people allowed to qualify for home loans.
    Jan 24, 2013. 09:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilding At The Crossroads Of Changing Demographics [View article]
    The housing market is definitely a local dynamic first. I have written elsewhere about the specifics of where the market is booming and how labor shortages threaten those booms. Right now, it is about collecting pieces of evidence and from what I am finding the evidence is accumulating that shortages threaten the turn-around that started in earnest last year. Homebuilders keep reporting the same. Lennar (LEN) was the latest.
    Jan 24, 2013. 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Facebook, Market Sentiment Has Changed More Than The Business Has [View article]
    Nice perspective. I didn't even consider how the very purpose of "like" could change. It may seem corrupted from a purist point of view, but it is consistent with the urge to monetize and commercialize time spent on the internet.
    Jan 22, 2013. 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Facebook, Market Sentiment Has Changed More Than The Business Has [View article]
    I like that description. $32 or so SHOULD be resistance, but my main point here is that market sentiment is strongly bullish in favor of FB in the current moment. No telling how far that will continue to carry FB to the skies until it exhausts itself. Just keep that in mind! I am providing a best guess when I say "at some point" this year, FB will revisit $20 or so. Sentiment is a fickle thing.
    Jan 22, 2013. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewed Headline Fears Generate Fresh Trading Opportunities In Monster Beverage [View article]
    The minute you try to pick a bottom, the bottom falls out. Better to define your risk tolerance and pick a point where the stock has fallen "enough." The Bollinger Bands help give you a relative sense for that.
    Jan 22, 2013. 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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