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Dr. Duru  

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  • First Solar Cashes Some Chips At A Good Time [View article]
    I am definitely keeping an eye out. I track most FSLR news closely. But I also like to think of the stock in a separate box. The company took great advantage of a bloated stock price. The fallout from that is it makes buyers/holders second-guess and be a little more wary of "what could happen next." Pricing at $46 anchors valuation estimates for now. With a P/B of around 1, I would say here it is fairly valued but recent history shows that the market is well-capable of taking FSLR much further below and above fair value!

    Since my last response here, I have re-entered a much smaller put position (not a spread this time) as the stock cracked $45. From a technical standpoint, not only is a (short-term?) top confirmed, but now the stock is breaking down. I will next watch for how other options players respond and whether shorts start climbing back in.

    FSLR in the low to mid-30s makes me a buyer again.
    Jun 14, 2013. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar Cashes Some Chips At A Good Time [View article]
    I think you meant I suggested it was a short on May 22nd. That is correct. I put spreads after making a call of a top.

    I am definitely not a bear on FSLR's business at this point. In my write-up on their analyst conference call, I expressed my desire to be optimistic and to believe their long-range forecasting. However, I am also extremely wary of chasing the price up especially after a run-up like this hat may have been largely driven by shorts getting killed.

    For bulls, I can see using this share offering as a chance to get in cheaper. I just closed out my put spread because it seems the selling momentum is already done. But a break below $45, would be a fresh warning sign.... I have not decided when I might try to get back in on the long side. Perhaps on the next discount...?
    Jun 14, 2013. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar Cashes Some Chips At A Good Time [View article]
    Put spreads. At this point, wait for FSLR to show additional weakness, like a break o the lows post-pricing of the share offering. Something like a 45/40 or even 40/35. I don't know enough about Australian banks to recommend shorting or buying them.
    Jun 14, 2013. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Crescendo Looms For The Australian Dollar Even As Traders Cast About For New Forex Leader [View article]
    Definitely take this one step at a time. First the rate cutting and targeting currency lower needs to work. If it doesn't revive the domestic (non-tradeable) economy that way the RBA likes, then it will be in a true pickle!

    I will be closely watching those inflation numbers now.
    Jun 13, 2013. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 7.......... [View instapost]
    CORRECTION. My specific opinions here:

    I am watching currency markets closely, particularly the yen and the Australian dollar. The strength in one and the weakness in the other seems like part of carry unwind that is not supportive of stocks. The wild and sharp gyrations in the Nikkei are like the loud creaks in a house about to lose a wall or something. However, I am not alarmist. At some lower level (soon), there SHOULD be great trading opportunities to ride to the upside.

    Like everyone else I suppose, I am keeping an eye on interest rates in the corner of my eye. I am surprised that the dollar has been so weak with rates on the move up, but it seems the carry unwind is a stronger force with folks piling back into the yen via USDJPY?
    Jun 13, 2013. 05:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Currency Carry Trade, DBV And Risk [View article]
    Given the Australian dollar was the worst performing currency on the high-yield side, it seems that its severe plunge is dominating DBV action lately. I think the DBV basket makes sense for those who don't want to worry about the nuances of a given country's monetary policy, etc... but it seems that FXA suffices for this kind of carry trade and monitoring of risk on/off?

    The recent divergence has happened as the RBA has made it clear it is targeting a lower currency and the market is finally cooperating. If history remains telling, this is a *leading* indicator of what is to come for the S&P 500...unless the Aussie stabilizes soon.
    Jun 12, 2013. 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar (FSLR -9%) falls sharply on news of its 8.5M-share sale, but MoneyBeat says the deal is well-timed, given the stock’s near-doubling in recent months and investors’ generally warm reception to recent corporate stock sales. FSLR plans to use proceeds for potential acquisitions or investments in solar power projects; Goldman Sachs calls the move “a positive and opportunistic maneuver” to prepare for such ends. [View news story]
    Curious comments from Goldman since they UPGRADED the stock from neutral to buy on May 30th!
    Jun 12, 2013. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Record Iron Ore Shipment As Prices And The Australian Dollar Plunge [View article]
    Thanks for the comments. If we are correct about the apparent impact of lower iron ore prices, it will be interesting to see what gets sustained. A bottom in iron ore prices and/or economic strength, might revive the bidding on the currency all over again...
    Jun 11, 2013. 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baby Boomers Are Not Likely To Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Part 1) [View article]
    i would love to see a study that quantifies that quality difference in homes built today versus previous generations. My realtor a long while back admonished me to buy an existing home because it has been "beta tested." I didn't listen and was amazed at how many faults I had to get fixed in my new house for the first year or so. And then I came to understand (anecdotal), that certain builders were known for very low quality work (mine included) and that a lot of corners and cheaper materials were getting used to speed up building, decrease costs, and to facilitate faster sales and turnover. I have no idea how widespread these problems are though.
    Jun 10, 2013. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baby Boomers Are Not Likely To Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Part 1) [View article]
    My commentary on this was to address Nelson's concerns that under-investment and disparities in education will cause some of the gap in purchasing power. He was primarily referring to immigrant/Spanish-spea... populations. Immigration reform that "normalizes" people's relationship with society and the economy could also normalize our approach to education. Bring more taxes into the system and provide more funding for basic services that are already being used. Certainly not a foregone conclusion, just a possibility I think deserves consideration.
    Jun 10, 2013. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Data Shows Why Rates Will Continue Higher In 2013 - What To Do Now [View article]
    Makes sense. Thanks for the response!
    Jun 10, 2013. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Crescendo Looms For The Australian Dollar Even As Traders Cast About For New Forex Leader [View article]
    I do get the impression that if currencies could be set by vote, Australians would overwhelming approve a much lower value! I am curious though, is there *anyone* who would be hurt by it? I almost never hear arguments for keeping the value high.
    Jun 10, 2013. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Your Run Of The Mill Sell-Off [View article]
    Would be good to see the historical data that demonstrates the stocks that went up the highest actually do fall the most in a sell-off. Perhaps this sell-off is not yet large enough or long enough in duration to show the effect. Maybe the differences in performance in these deciles is not statistically significant. Etc...
    Jun 8, 2013. 06:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Market: Nikkei-Style [View article]
    I fully agree. Very scary they are trying to join forces with the monetary authority in artificially pumping up stocks!
    Jun 7, 2013. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Market: Nikkei-Style [View article]
    Small correction: the closing price quoted for June 7th on the Nikkei was actually an intraday price. The index ended up rallying strongly into the close (still down 0.2%). Helped by news that Japanese pension funds have finally cut weighting in bonds in favor of stocks. Bank of Japan also supposedly made a large ETF purchase.
    Jun 7, 2013. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment