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Dr. Duru  

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  • The Bank Of England Stares Down A Conundrum On Inflation [View article]
    Well, the U.S. is actually the odd man in the boat. There is no austerity budget, plenty of debt no deflation, "mild" inflation, and slow growth. Mervyn King has even pointed to the US as the one country in the developed world that stands out as being able to engineer a recovery without addressing the economic imbalances he frets about all the time.

    The Pound *sometimes* acts like a reserve currency, but it seems mainly when the current fad is going against the dollar and the yen. I don't think the BoE will be interested in engineering a comeback for the pound unless (imported) inflation really spins out of control. I will definitely be keeping my eye on the possibility.
    Feb 10, 2013. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bank Of England Stares Down A Conundrum On Inflation [View article]
    Are the refugees not counted in the unemployment numbers?
    Feb 10, 2013. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bank Of England Stares Down A Conundrum On Inflation [View article]
    I fully understand that! I have noted King's consistent defense that the only alternative was a significant reduction in output and a recession. It seems there are a good number of people in the UK who don't believe that....at least based on the persistent questions I hear at the quarterly Inflation Reports.
    Feb 10, 2013. 07:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Eye On Higher Interest Rates As Strong Housing Data Continue [View article]
    They certainly won't help pay down/off those debts.
    Feb 5, 2013. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Only Takes 5 Million Dollars To Buy A Home [View article]
    Where do I imply that? It is not evil or unfair. It's the market. Indeed, if it were not for this demand, I could not even talk about a housing recovery.
    Feb 5, 2013. 05:34 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com Post-Earnings Trade Quickly Turns Bearish [View article]
    Clarification - down about 8% by March expiration. But it all depends on the timing. For example, if it goes down, say 5%, in the next week, I will likely be in the green. And I am talking net for my entire position.
    Feb 4, 2013. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com Post-Earnings Trade Quickly Turns Bearish [View article]
    Blodget is also the man from the tech bubble with the mega-target on AMZN. I posted the quote for the irony that it is. AMZN to me is a enigmatic stock full of bizarre twists and turns.
    Feb 4, 2013. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com Post-Earnings Trade Quickly Turns Bearish [View article]
    I believe I am.
    Feb 4, 2013. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com Post-Earnings Trade Quickly Turns Bearish [View article]
    The most likely way I make money is for AMZN to trade down another 10% or so by March expiration. I am not expecting it to rebounce back to life anytime soon.

    The perspective on AMZN stock definitely depend on your horizon. But since I think it is highly risky, I am definitely leaning toward playing for a steep correction. Not thinking about a buy point unless it is the next post-earnings round....at the first open.
    Feb 4, 2013. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With A Rate Decision Looming, Weakening Australian Dollar Sends Poor Signal For Stocks [View article]
    Thanks Bankim. I fully agree on your commentary on the RBA. Their public rationale often leaves a LOT to be desired.
    Feb 3, 2013. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency Positioning And Technical Outlook: Interesting Contrarian Opportunities [View article]
    Thanks as always for that perspective. I am now going to keep my eyes wide open for Draghi's address!

    I don't think of the Fed as starting currency wars but it sure seems from public statements by finance ministers that the U.S. gets fingered as the fulcrum point of it all.
    Jan 30, 2013. 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yen Trend Moves On Past Its Initial Disappointment With The Bank Of Japan [View article]
    All good points. And exactly why some in Japan are now fearful the current weakening trend might go too far (which it will - since markets tend to overshoot). So far, the plan for weakening is finally working and likely moved a lot faster than any of the Japanese authorities expected. But if deflation continues, it doesn't mean that the end result will be to stop the printing presses. The government could easily decide that the problem remains not enough printing.

    I always wondered why Japan did not make better use of its strong currency last year and stockpile on (relatively) cheap commodities. (Or maybe they did, and I didn't catch the news).
    Jan 30, 2013. 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency Positioning And Technical Outlook: Interesting Contrarian Opportunities [View article]
    Makes sense. I guess a different way of asking is if the weakest parts of the eurozone do not start picking up along Draghi's second half "rosy" forecast AND the euro is still this high or higher, it seems all eyes will turn to policies to weaken the euro. Active currency "management" seems to be a more and more common tool in the zero-interest rate world.
    Jan 29, 2013. 08:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency Positioning And Technical Outlook: Interesting Contrarian Opportunities [View article]
    At what point do you think the strong euro starts to have a notable drag on the recovery in the eurozone? I know Mervyn King was previously distraught about the low value of EUR/GBP, but he must be ecstatic over the recent strong bounce. So, similarly, how much help do you think the reversal in this pair will provide the stagnant UK economy?
    Jan 28, 2013. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yen Trend Moves On Past Its Initial Disappointment With The Bank Of Japan [View article]
    A weakening economy typically leads to a weaker currency, not a stronger one. In the past, the yen has strengthened on the weakness of *other* economies as traders look for safety. Printing more and more should not make the yen stronger, but stranger things have happened in forex. Part of my argument is that the stage seems set for the BoJ to change its mind later this year and start the pumping before 2014 from government pressure. My guess is that none of this printing will ultimately work to help the real economy. But inflation is what they should eventually get with unlimited printing. Should be interesting once domestic investors start selling their bonds to put money in gold and other assets to protect themselves from a weaker yen.
    Jan 28, 2013. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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