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Dr. Duru  

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  • Loss In Patent Case Turns Marvell Technology Into Dead Money [View article]
    I will take those as points of encouragement. Kudos to you for holding on this long. I am taking heart in particular on your point #3. If MRVL remains viable then over the course of time, I am pretty confident this ship will get righted.
    Dec 28, 2012. 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Loss In Patent Case Turns Marvell Technology Into Dead Money [View article]
    Wow - sneaky. You really have to comb through this stuff.
    Dec 28, 2012. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Loss In Patent Case Turns Marvell Technology Into Dead Money [View article]
    Thx! And thanks for the correction! Hopefully, SA can get that done soon.
    Dec 27, 2012. 04:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With The Endgame Known, Options Trading In Herbalife Provides Even More Insight [View article]
    Whew! A lot of questions! I can't profess to know the answers but here is my best shot at some modicum of insight:

    First, yes, anyone can be wrong. There are no perfect geniuses out there. The smartest thing Ackman did in choosing his target is finding a company that is vulnerable to his charges. HLF is in a business that is subject to this kind of attack anytime. People tend to believe evidence the more data they see amassed on one side of the case, no matter the quality. Again, HLF is in a business where it is clearly easy to amass all sorts of incriminating tidbits. I am not making a conclusion about Ackman's analysis, only a conclusion about the opportunity here to attack a vulnerable target.

    Now, for your specific questions:

    1. As I show in the chart above, the ramp in shares short is very clear. It can't be hidden except that the most recent data is usually at least 3 weeks old. In this case, Ackman has no interest in hiding his position. He is using the size of it to communicate and convince on his conviction and his authority on the matter.

    2. There are all sorts of loopholes to Pershing's disclosure. Without data, you can't pin them down on insider trading. But how hard would it be for an employee to tell a friend at a bar something and that friend goes telling a few more friends..for someone to overhear, for a stray document to get revealed in a trashbin to a person visiting Pershing offices. Who knows, eh? What we can say is that the data indicates trading acted like it would when someone gets advanced info on a big event.

    3. I don't know, but, yes, if the timing was executed with the blackout in mind, definitely very smart. Let's see though what Ackman and other bears do once/if the company starts aligning its resources to buy shares back up.

    4. Related to #3. If HLF is serious about a buyback, it *should* drive up shares since, presumably, shorts ahve gotten their fill of stock and the weakest investors have long since bailed. Not sure who else wants to sell here...at least not until seeing HLF's defense.

    I hope that helps.
    Dec 26, 2012. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With The Endgame Known, Options Trading In Herbalife Provides Even More Insight [View article]
    Thanks for the additional info. I am indeed taking a risk, but, with hindsight of course, I really do think the bigger and less informed risk was in the shares I bought before the end game became clear. Now, it is all about market dynamics. HLF will not go straight to zero, especially with the company getting a chance to defend itself. In the meantime, as I mentioned, Ackman now needs a lot of help to get this stock to zero and anyone who rode the coattails going into the December expiration has made more money than they will make for a very long time, perhaps ever. No need to keep going back to the well for more. Of course, I could be wrong. Greed is a powerful force...and time will tell.
    Dec 26, 2012. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With The Endgame Known, Options Trading In Herbalife Provides Even More Insight [View article]
    You are correct - I tried my best to avoid charges of leveraging insider info since all the evidence I can muster is circumstantial. All I can really say is that it LOOKS like the way an insider transaction would play out. Thanks for the additional notes on the market makers. I completely left them out of this story. Data are sparse to non-existent on their activity, so it is hard to say anything conclusive. To the extent these trades were executed with market makers on the losing end, we can be pretty assured they are working overtime to make their money back. This can work out in a few ways. First, market makers keep up pressure on the stock to get their hedges (shares short) profitable. Second, at some point, start buying back stock. Finally, after triggering a relief rally, unload those shares. The market makers have the planned HLF investor/analyst presentation to time their process for a potential catalyst. I am guessing premiums on puts (and options skew) will be much higher for a while.
    Dec 26, 2012. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marvell Technology Continues Fighting Its Downtrend By Increasing Stock Repurchases [View article]
    Ugh. I guess I now know what was overriding the supposed positive impact of all the share buybacks. A lawsuit with massive liability potential. At the time I am writing this, MRVL has dropped over 10% on news of a $1.17B judgement against them in a patent infringement lawsuit. Hopefully an appeal works out. In the meantime, watching the 52-week lows for support.
    Dec 26, 2012. 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Housing Will Surge In The Next 5 Years [View article]
    Zing. I have to remember that one!
    Dec 26, 2012. 02:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Over The Fiscal Cliff Lies Opportunity Valley: SAIC, Inc. [View article]
    Regarding the forced selling, I forgot to note that some institutional investors and funds may have already started dumping SAI in anticipation of its removal from the S&P 500. That could partially explain the stock's renewed weakness after the initial pop on the announcement of the planned split of the company.
    Dec 26, 2012. 03:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons To Bet On A 2013 Recovery For Skullcandy [View article]
    Thanks for pointing that out. I don't like the big drop in cash, but, if I am reading things correctly, it seems to be a result of paying down debt and the balance sheet carried from acquisitions. SKUL will need to show cash generation is back to normal in Feb earnings. The acquisitions will have to start showing positive results very fast.
    Dec 24, 2012. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons To Bet On A 2013 Recovery For Skullcandy [View article]
    Thanks. ALL eyes will be on those Feb earnings. Company will need to demonstrate progress on its strategic pillars. There should be no short squeeze in the stock given the current close-out was orchestrated in a way not to create buying pressure. Again, early 2013 it will be important to see whether short interest starts increasing again despite the high rates.
    Dec 24, 2012. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peering Over The Fiscal Cliff, The Yen Gets 'Cheap', Australian Dollar 'Expensive' [View article]
    Yes...?
    Dec 21, 2012. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Profit From The Decline Of The Japanese Yen [View article]
    I made a similar recommendation to go long AUD/JPY: http://seekingalpha.co...

    However, I think that trade is over for now, at least until the Fiscal Cliff headlines are over and things get resolved in a positive way: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 21, 2012. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Option Plays For The End Of Capital Gains Tax Related Selling [View article]
    I think augmenting the strategy with put spreads and then covering the short side if the move goes in your favor should enhance gains on stocks like this promising to have big moves in early January. My more specific thoughts here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 20, 2012. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marvell Technology Continues Fighting Its Downtrend By Increasing Stock Repurchases [View article]
    Exactly my thinking. It won't take much of a positive catalyst to send this stock up 20% or more even from current levels in rapid fashion. Meanwhile, the stuffing has been beaten out of the valuation. While company repurchases do not always go well, at least it is supportive of the assumption that the company is very undervalued over the long-term.
    Dec 19, 2012. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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