Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises [View article]
Sorry folks. I forgot to include STP in this list. STP's short interest has increased 215% in 2008 through 6/13/08. Also note that numbers for June 30, 2008 settlement have now been released.
Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises [View article]
To be clear, I do not think oil is in a bubble, but I do think it will have periodic corrections, just as any bull market has corrections. And because of that opinion, I remain long-term bullish on solar. Has oil become over-extended in the short-term? Most likely. And I assume the accumulating and accelerating shorts in oil plays like USO are trying to get in ahead of the next big correction in oil prices. But timing is everything...
Solar Sector Plunges Right Along With Market [View article]
Hey "North Coast" - a rating system for articles here is a great idea. I will throw my hat in with a recommendation to the editors. Ratings will help authors like me fine tune our work. Thanks for the comments and kudos.
Does the VIX Need To Spike In a Climactic Low? [View article]
I like the idea of a "Frustration Index." Something everyone can identify with. Sort of like the stock market equivalent of the "misery index" which I think adds inflation and the unemployment rates...
Two Paths to One Outcome: Slower Growth [View article]
I expect the market to exact the discipline that has been lacking to-date. Fed action for a long-time has focused on avoiding the process of cleansing excess and cleaning out the books. The Fed has not enacted pro-active pain since Volker wrestled inflation to the ground by sending the economy into a prolonged recession with higher rates. And if the Fed is indeed finally contemplating being pro-active about taking the medicine sooner than later, I think they will be VERY hesitant about doing it before the Presidential elections.
I agree with Davy J: there is some circular logic in here which locks in a deflationary effect no matter which direction oil prices go.
I also agree with Eric Hart: this piece is very mainstream as far as the pundits, academics, and monetary policymakers go. And I would argue that until oil recently proved it could hold above $110/barrel or so, the vast majority of talk we heard in the media pooh-poohed inflationary threats, mainly because the Fed told us so. One thing we used to hear was that surely oil would go back down to $70, $80, etc...
In the end, it's the expectations that count most. Oil and food inflation are driving expectations for future inflation ever upward. And, eventually, yes, labor will begin protesting for higher wages once it really sinks in that counting on credit cards and home equity will no longer support current living standards. The wage story is probably the last leg of the "inflation is no threat" stool.
Finally, I am curious to find out where that chart came from showing real wage growth? I often here pundits who claim the economy has been and is just fine say that wage growth has been healthy. It never made sense to me, and I have been looking for the real data in a clear and understandable form.
Market Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place [View article]
Excellent points. I often lament the anti-saving, pro-consumption culture supported by America's recent easy-credit and easy-money policies. But I also tend to forget the real story is the extra burden placed on the savers in the economy and the squeeze felt by those who must live from savings.
The S&P 500 Is Struggling - And Peaking [View article]
Hi Pangaea, Not sure why the charts didn't look for you here, but thanks for taking the time to go to the source. Interesting question on the VIX. It is right where we started the year, so, in that sense, it does reflect some complacency. We sure cannot get a washout move without much higher (relative) VIX readings. Time will soon tell I imagine. I am also not sure where else to get the T2108 chart. Let me know if you find any!
Profiting from Panic-Selling in Trina [View article]
This from briefing.com. NOW I understand better why TSL sold off...assuming a lot of folks share this skeptical view:
"Trina Solar: Polysilicon shortage is even affecting prices for recycled polysilicon - FBR (45.00)
Friedman Billings says that despite strong 1Q08 results, TSL's guidance illustrates that the polysilicon shortage is even affecting prices for recycled polysilicon. Even though Trina's reported 1Q gross margin came in above guidance, guidance clearly illustrates that prior margin assumptions are at significant risk. Also, with firm's expectations that prices will start to decline by at least 15% in CY09, they do not expect polysilicon prices to decline at a significantly higher rate than the ASP decline. Another source of concern is the cash burn rate. Even after canceling the $1 bln project to build its own polysilicon manufacturing capacity, the co is still expected to burn cash during the next few years. "
Profiting from Panic-Selling in Trina [View article]
From my reading of briefing.com, it reported all the excellent headline numbers. There was nothing negative there. I had to do more digging into other articles to even find a sliver of an explanation for the strong fade on TSL post-earnings. One article reported that management's future margin guidance was under expectations. Is this not your read?
I would like someone to add up all the capacity that all these solar companies are planning to bring on-line in the next 2 years and compare that to likely demand. Sounds like a huge capacity glut is somewhere around the corner. Perhaps if solar could be used more for base loads this near parabolic move in industry dynamics could be sustained longer.
Great idea. I was wondering whether it was finally time to make some kind of play on CROX upside and this one has a decent risk/reward configuration. The CROX director who bought almost $5M worth of stock on March 6th for near $20 a pop is sure hoping for *at least* $10/share!
SPY: The Case for a Bottom Being in Place [View article]
I don't see enough convincing evidence for a double-bottom here. First of all, to confirm the double-bottom, you need a higher high. That would roughly be SPY = $140, I think. You also did not note the consistent failure of the SPY to maintain prices above 2007's climactic lows in March and August. Speaking of which, the August 2007 low seemed to confirm the March low as THE bottom, but we see where that got us. Given the "sag" in the SPY chart, I would dare to suggest that SPY = 120 (the 2006 low) is more likely than a double-bottom here.
Finally, why is the WSJ article a clarion call for a bottom? That article simply stated facts and it duly noted that if you stuck to a regular buy program (like monthly) you would actually be up nicely by now given the sharp rally from 2003. I would be VERY interested to see someone do a more complete study of the "magazine cover" theory of bottoms and tops. For example, which media outlets are the reliable contrarian signals? What exactly does the cover (or article) have to talk about? How reliable has the signal been really? Perhaps this has already been done...
Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises [View article]
Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises [View article]
Solar Sector Plunges Right Along With Market [View article]
Does the VIX Need To Spike In a Climactic Low? [View article]
Two Paths to One Outcome: Slower Growth [View article]
Inflation Fears Are Overblown [View article]
I also agree with Eric Hart: this piece is very mainstream as far as the pundits, academics, and monetary policymakers go. And I would argue that until oil recently proved it could hold above $110/barrel or so, the vast majority of talk we heard in the media pooh-poohed inflationary threats, mainly because the Fed told us so. One thing we used to hear was that surely oil would go back down to $70, $80, etc...
In the end, it's the expectations that count most. Oil and food inflation are driving expectations for future inflation ever upward. And, eventually, yes, labor will begin protesting for higher wages once it really sinks in that counting on credit cards and home equity will no longer support current living standards. The wage story is probably the last leg of the "inflation is no threat" stool.
Finally, I am curious to find out where that chart came from showing real wage growth? I often here pundits who claim the economy has been and is just fine say that wage growth has been healthy. It never made sense to me, and I have been looking for the real data in a clear and understandable form.
Market Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place [View article]
The S&P 500 Is Struggling - And Peaking [View article]
Not sure why the charts didn't look for you here, but thanks for taking the time to go to the source.
Interesting question on the VIX. It is right where we started the year, so, in that sense, it does reflect some complacency. We sure cannot get a washout move without much higher (relative) VIX readings. Time will soon tell I imagine.
I am also not sure where else to get the T2108 chart. Let me know if you find any!
The S&P 500 Is Struggling - And Peaking [View article]
Profiting from Panic-Selling in Trina [View article]
"Trina Solar: Polysilicon shortage is even affecting prices for recycled
polysilicon - FBR (45.00)
Friedman Billings says that despite strong 1Q08 results, TSL's guidance
illustrates that the polysilicon shortage is even affecting prices for
recycled polysilicon. Even though Trina's reported 1Q gross margin came in
above guidance, guidance clearly illustrates that prior margin assumptions are
at significant risk. Also, with firm's expectations that prices will start to
decline by at least 15% in CY09, they do not expect polysilicon prices to
decline at a significantly higher rate than the ASP decline. Another source of
concern is the cash burn rate. Even after canceling the $1 bln project to
build its own polysilicon manufacturing capacity, the co is still expected to
burn cash during the next few years. "
Profiting from Panic-Selling in Trina [View article]
SunPower Buy Opportunity? [View article]
A Crocs Play for Chickens [View article]
Cloudy Future for Applied Material's SunFab - Barron's [View article]
SPY: The Case for a Bottom Being in Place [View article]
Finally, why is the WSJ article a clarion call for a bottom? That article simply stated facts and it duly noted that if you stuck to a regular buy program (like monthly) you would actually be up nicely by now given the sharp rally from 2003. I would be VERY interested to see someone do a more complete study of the "magazine cover" theory of bottoms and tops. For example, which media outlets are the reliable contrarian signals? What exactly does the cover (or article) have to talk about? How reliable has the signal been really? Perhaps this has already been done...
So many questions...