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Dr. Duru  

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  • The Dollar's Vote Is In And Appears Ready To Run Higher [View article]
    That is a funny juxtaposition. But differences of perspective and opinion are what make the market. I am basically thinking that the dollar seems to have enough momentum now to do what I thought it could not do in the near-term: make a breakout above the 200DMA. Time will tell. VERY interesting the dollar index was flat to down while the stock market sold off heavily. Correlations seem to be a-changing...
    Nov 7, 2012. 11:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar's Vote Is In And Appears Ready To Run Higher [View article]
    Australian deputy governor made references to the fact that essentially all the struggling developed economies are printing money. Australia's answer is apparently to continue cutting rates. An interesting discussion on EconTalk about hyperinflation here: http://bit.ly/RYgvGj
    Essentially argues it won't happen in the U.S. because Fed money is still small compared to "bank money."
    Nov 7, 2012. 11:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reserve Bank Of Australia Balks On Inflation - Currency's Rise Provides Fresh Shorting Opportunity [View article]
    I don't think intervention is yet on the radar. Given all the hints Aussie officials keep dropping, I am guessing they think some combination of subtle jawboning and an accomodative bias will be sufficient to gradually erode interest in the Aussie dollar. It is a slow grind though since so many are merely focused on itnerest rate differentials.
    Nov 6, 2012. 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hurricane Sandy And Nasdaq Closure Interferes With Post-IPO Facebook Stock Lockup [View article]
    Strange to call the delay of a lockup expiration an "unfortunate effect" of a Hurricane. The sellers will still get their shot to dump shares after the storm has past and the market re-opens. A lot more people will be much worse off after the storm passes...
    Oct 29, 2012. 07:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned As Apple Earnings Deliver Dream For Options Sellers [View article]
    A stock split is loooong overdue.
    Oct 27, 2012. 06:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned As Apple Earnings Deliver Dream For Options Sellers [View article]
    I think it is good to keep as close a tab on Samsung's results as it is to track Apple results. This is from SeekingAlpha. I am guessing Apple is the one applying the pressure going forward with all these new product releases.

    Samsung's (SSNLF.PK) Q3 net profit soared 91% to 6.56T won ($6B) - the company's third straight quarter of record profit - while revenue jumped 26% to 52.2T won. As ever, earnings were boosted by Samsung's mobile unit, where sales of the Galaxy S III helped operating profit more than double to 5.63T. However, Samsung indicated that momentum may stall in Q4, saying it "expects market competition to intensify" and "muted" seasonal demand due to the global economy.
    Oct 27, 2012. 06:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned As Apple Earnings Deliver Dream For Options Sellers [View article]
    Hopefully the dip on Friday allowed you to do that. It also seems the 200DMA around $588 is more likely to hold as support although it still warrants close watching.
    Oct 27, 2012. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned As Apple Earnings Deliver Dream For Options Sellers [View article]
    So, as it turned out, AAPL's dip on Friday allowed me to salvage most of the earnings trade. The dip and bounce back reminded me that an outstanding and important enhancement to the earnings trade template is to include highs and lows and not just the close of the day following earnings.
    Oct 27, 2012. 06:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • British Pound Continues To Break Down Ahead Of Q3 GDP Numbers [View article]
    I will publish an update this weekend. UK reported better than expected GDP, although numbers remain poor overall. This was enough to send pound soaring. GBP/USD has yet to break the downtrend line though. If it does, I will have to quickly shift again on the pound to bullish!
    Oct 25, 2012. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currencies Are Signaling Potential Bullish Divergences For The Stock Market [View article]
    I neglected to note that Japan is facing its own potential "fiscal cliff" in coming days. This could explain yen weakness as well although traders have been in the consistent habit of ignoring any bad performance in the Japanese economy when loading up on yen.
    Oct 25, 2012. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Hedged Approach To Trading Apple Earnings This Time Around [View article]
    Note my data do include results for this year.

    I always wonder whether additional context helps to include in these kinds of analysis, but, so far, for Apple it has not been necessary. The idea is that the market's move into earnings tells us most of what we need to know about the odds going forward. The big wildcard for me this time around is the product announcement just days before earnings. Thus, my increased uncertainty and the idea to hedge this one.

    Note also that overall, AAPL is in an extremely strong, long-term bullish uptrend. This is the overriding context to everything. This means corrections do not last long and the "default" assumption is almost always to the upside for earnings. The signals for anticipating a bearish reaction earnings should then be very carefully studied, as I tried to do here (from the technical side, not the fundamental side).

    In other earnings trade analyses, like with priceline.com, I have looked at earnings and revenue trends to provide some additional insight with success.
    Oct 25, 2012. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Hedged Approach To Trading Apple Earnings This Time Around [View article]
    Thanks for the comments/feedback everyone. As noted above, I am likely going to shift my call position before the close. A call spread is likely the way to go because if Apple goes nowhere initially (or sells off), I can use that opportunity to close out the short side, and ride out the long side for the likely, eventual recovery.
    Oct 25, 2012. 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Hedged Approach To Trading Apple Earnings This Time Around [View article]
    Since hitting $700, selling weekly calls on any one-day rally has certainly been a winner.
    Oct 25, 2012. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Hedged Approach To Trading Apple Earnings This Time Around [View article]
    I agree that a post-earnings sell-off should likely be bought. This is the strategy I used after July earnings (I described the data around this in an earlier post).
    Oct 25, 2012. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Hedged Approach To Trading Apple Earnings This Time Around [View article]
    Protection from a 50-point drop! Ouch. Go for a put spread with the short side pinned at downside target. The expiration month depends on how long you think you need protection.
    Oct 25, 2012. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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