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Dr. Duru  

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  • Homebuilding At The Crossroads Of Changing Demographics [View article]
    That makes sense. Thanks for the additional color. I have yet to read through the LEN conference call. LEN of course operates in certain markets, so I would love to understand whether they are making general statements or whether they are particular to LEN's main areas of business. Neither TOL nor KBH have explained the looming shortages in that way.
    Jan 24, 2013. 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilding At The Crossroads Of Changing Demographics [View article]
    A depression can do that to the psyche. It is hard to accept that a turn-around will eventually happen. The housing recession was so deep and so long-lasting, that it is easy to believe that no one will ever buy a house ever again. And with that mindset, no hint of a recovery is enough to turn thinking around...it takes a raging boom that is obvious as day. By then of course, prices are already soaring and we are well on our way to the next problem...
    Jan 24, 2013. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilding At The Crossroads Of Changing Demographics [View article]
    My last piece on KBH referenced that point. I am in full agreement that the recovery cannot be sustained for too much longer just on investors with plenty of cash and the few people allowed to qualify for home loans.
    Jan 24, 2013. 09:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilding At The Crossroads Of Changing Demographics [View article]
    The housing market is definitely a local dynamic first. I have written elsewhere about the specifics of where the market is booming and how labor shortages threaten those booms. Right now, it is about collecting pieces of evidence and from what I am finding the evidence is accumulating that shortages threaten the turn-around that started in earnest last year. Homebuilders keep reporting the same. Lennar (LEN) was the latest.
    Jan 24, 2013. 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Facebook, Market Sentiment Has Changed More Than The Business Has [View article]
    Nice perspective. I didn't even consider how the very purpose of "like" could change. It may seem corrupted from a purist point of view, but it is consistent with the urge to monetize and commercialize time spent on the internet.
    Jan 22, 2013. 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Facebook, Market Sentiment Has Changed More Than The Business Has [View article]
    I like that description. $32 or so SHOULD be resistance, but my main point here is that market sentiment is strongly bullish in favor of FB in the current moment. No telling how far that will continue to carry FB to the skies until it exhausts itself. Just keep that in mind! I am providing a best guess when I say "at some point" this year, FB will revisit $20 or so. Sentiment is a fickle thing.
    Jan 22, 2013. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewed Headline Fears Generate Fresh Trading Opportunities In Monster Beverage [View article]
    The minute you try to pick a bottom, the bottom falls out. Better to define your risk tolerance and pick a point where the stock has fallen "enough." The Bollinger Bands help give you a relative sense for that.
    Jan 22, 2013. 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Facebook, Market Sentiment Has Changed More Than The Business Has [View article]
    Apple and FB have gone in sharply divergent directions in the last two months or so. Almost like money has flowed from one to the other. If that is the case, I definitely expect the money to flow to reverse again soon....the market seems to need to see definitive results in Apple's numbers now whereas it is willing to *assume* the goodness of FB numbers. Should make for an interesting earnings season.
    Jan 22, 2013. 06:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewed Headline Fears Generate Fresh Trading Opportunities In Monster Beverage [View article]
    Sorry for the confusion. In the case of MNST, I am FIRST looking at how far the selling has extended below the lower-Bollinger Band. Just think of it as selling that is far beyond typical stock price moves. NEXT, I look at the options trading to confirm the negative sentiment and momentum. The options trading itself does not tell me whether the selling overdone.
    Jan 21, 2013. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Australia-Japan Trade Balance And The AUD-JPY Trade [View article]
    According to the RBA, mining reached a peak some time ago, at least through the terms of trade, so I don't think there is a new catalyst there. Note that the Australian dollar did not collapse when iron ore plunged several months ago. The next time around, sellers will be slower having been burned by this current steep turn-around. So, again, the Australian dollar may go down, but not steeply.

    I agree that a stock market reversal could cause a steep reversal but it would be part of a general stampede back into yen and US dollars. Then again, the weakness in the yen seems like a more permanent feature of the forex landscape now....
    Jan 19, 2013. 11:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Australia-Japan Trade Balance And The AUD-JPY Trade [View article]
    What would trigger such a steep reversal?
    Jan 17, 2013. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought Cliffs Natural Resources Today [View article]
    You are probably onto something - the Chinese are highly dependent on iron ore pricing and have gotten good at manipulating pricing through the process of restocking and inventory drawdowns. The recent mad scramble to rebuild iron ore inventories has created a near parabolic move in prices. Such parabolic moves almost always end badly as demand suddenly disappears at the exorbitantly high prices. And what was CLF doing during the parabolic run-up? Up 43% from the bottom. Probably what one should expect during a parabolic move in the price of a company's main product. But it also means a lot of potential sellers have jumped into the stock who will unwind quickly at the first hint that iron ore may have peaked out for the time being. In other words, it seems the risk/reward at current levels is very poor at current levels without a clearer sign that a strong and sustained economic recovery is underway...
    Jan 12, 2013. 02:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Australian Dollar Breaks Out And Regains Correlation With The S&P 500 [View article]
    That's great news. I will watch that closely. I have been reading and hearing that some part of strength of Aussie dollar is from the flow into reserves in many central banks for diversification. I did not include that possibility in this piece. I am guessing that this activity just compounds the RBA's frustration as reserve activity can be used as another weapon in competitive devaluations.
    Jan 11, 2013. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Australian Dollar Breaks Out And Regains Correlation With The S&P 500 [View article]
    I think they will eventually win as well, particularly when economic data starts weakening notably. At that point though, the Australian dollar could have another one of those extremely sharp sell-offs...
    Jan 11, 2013. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Overplay The Recovery In Iron Ore Prices [View article]
    (Hit reply before finishing) - and, yes, iron ore is bigger part of CLF's business. I will be more careful to keep it in the iron ore column!
    Jan 7, 2013. 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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