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Dr. Duru

 
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  • Odds Favor A Big One-Day Upside After Apple Posts Earnings [View article]
    Excellent.
    Apr 24, 2012. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odds Favor A Big One-Day Upside After Apple Posts Earnings [View article]
    Definitely keep it simple. I ran out of time to analyze what impact the size of the run-up into earnings might play.
    Apr 24, 2012. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Stock Ownership Rate At Its Lowest Level Since 1998 [View article]
    Ditto for me. Very few mutual funds interest me at this point.
    Apr 23, 2012. 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Stock Ownership Rate At Its Lowest Level Since 1998 [View article]
    I agree. I like to collect as many data points as practical. Especially helpful for triangulating, corroborating, etc...
    Apr 23, 2012. 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Did A $5M Revenue Cut Turn Into A $1.35B Market Value Drop? [View article]
    I was wondering the same thing. Maybe it i more of a case where the stock was extremely expensive already. In those situations sellers are just looking for an excuse, especially with the broader market apparently weakening.
    Apr 23, 2012. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Zynga Ahead Of The Facebook IPO [View article]
    I prefer making such approximations when there is a direct tie between the companies. Again, this is just a starting point for thinking about relative valuations.
    Apr 23, 2012. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Zynga Ahead Of The Facebook IPO [View article]
    Great points. I had assumed the 12% figure was net of royalty payments. I will need to clarify. If it is net, then I believe my rough relationship here is OK. As I stated, the relationship of share of revenue to market cap is just a starting point for thinking about potential total upside for ZNGA. Another risk to this calculation is that the market values Facebook's revenues at a much lower multiple.
    Apr 23, 2012. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Zynga Ahead Of The Facebook IPO [View article]
    Definitely looks like a retest of lows are coming. However, if general market continues selling off, we should expect ZNGA to go lower as well.
    Apr 23, 2012. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odds Favor A Big One-Day Upside After Apple Posts Earnings [View article]
    Thanks for the corrections! I hope to get SA to make that change soon. The only correlation done with just 4 observations is the last point on the chart "Correlation of Apple's 2-Week Average Daily Pre-Earnings Price Change to the One-Day Post-Earnings Price Change." For 2011, it is 5 points. For 2010, it is 9 points. Etc... Yes, the fewer the observations, the greater the confidence interval (or the higher uncertainty in the results). Next time, I might try a regression in order to provide more statistical measures for those so inclined.
    Apr 23, 2012. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odds Favor A Big One-Day Upside After Apple Posts Earnings [View article]
    Well, congrats on being long all this time. :)
    Apr 23, 2012. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Stock Ownership Rate At Its Lowest Level Since 1998 [View article]
    A friend and I have been trying to get a handle on the specific numbers. A lot of studies showing the death of equity mutual funds without providing the context of what is happening with equity ETFs. However, I think comparing stock and bond mutual funds on a relative basis is still informative.
    Apr 20, 2012. 09:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Stock Ownership Rate At Its Lowest Level Since 1998 [View article]
    Thanks for posting that link!
    @Carlini - Gallup'spoll is definitely corroboration, not a big surprise. The rest of the segment covered alternatives and gold was the #1 choice for people. Cash was not far behind.
    Apr 20, 2012. 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CSX provided the first evidence of the railroad industry’s continuing strong recovery when it published Q1 earnings that rose 14% to a record $449M. Solid gains in merchandise shipping (up 6%)  and intermodal traffic (up 9%) more than outweighed the 14% drop in coal movements. CSX is the first of the top U.S. railroads to release Q1 results.  [View news story]
    Seems like better pricing is a strong factor? That's pretty bullish for the business if they are able to get pricing power to stick.
    Apr 19, 2012. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Zynga Ahead Of The Facebook IPO [View article]
    Thanks, Modernist. I love that phrase "gambling wildcard for free" - I may have to borrow it sometime!
    Apr 19, 2012. 04:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Positioning More Bearishly Vs. The Australian Dollar As It Loses 2012′s Gains [View article]
    The first link just sent me to the definition. The 50-day correlation looks interesting given the definitive change recently. I think this consistent with the recent change I see in the graph of the ratio.
    Apr 16, 2012. 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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