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Dr. Duru

 
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  • Swiss Franc Refuses To Confirm Fresh Euro-Optimism [View article]
    That's exactly what the SNB keeps pointing out - almost daring the economy to show any inflationary spark. Until then, they can keep printing all they desire.
    Jul 3, 2012. 06:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Positive Trade When Incumbent Presidents Run For Re-Election [View article]
    I didn't even think about looking for any historical pattern for Olympics-related trading. I just seem to remember a lot of hype going into Beijing in 2008 that of course was sorely disappointed shortly afterward..
    Jul 2, 2012. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar's Tumble Accompanies A Host Of Critical Currency, Commodity Trades [View article]
    Good stuff.
    Jul 1, 2012. 06:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jinko Solar Leads Sector Lower Despite Good News [View article]
    Solar does not compete with oil. Most electricity around the globe is generated by coal and natural gas. Especially in the U.S., oil is a very small part of the mix for electricity generation. So, I think the collapse in natural gas prices is a much bigger threat to solar. Grid parity must certainly be pushed out further than earlier anticipated.
    Jun 28, 2012. 10:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rich Valuations Mean Fastenal Has Likely Peaked Short-Term, Buy On Lower Prices [View article]
    I neglected to add some data on insider transactions (http://yhoo.it/NEIcHb). There is a confusing mix of activity as company officers have recently stepped up to purchase some shares (almost $200K worth) while directors have dumped a large amount. The last officer to sell dumped $7.9M after exercising options in March, right near the peak. He and other officers similarly sold large amounts of stock in February. So, I think the overall picture is quite mixed on insider transactions, but the earlier selling by company officers confirms further for me that FAST has likely reached a short-term peak for now.
    Jun 18, 2012. 05:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Basin's Plunge To Historic Lows Is An Opportunity For The Patient [View article]
    I assume you mean stock liquidity. I wondered the same thing but shorts have descended upon this stock in large waves, not in a constant attack. So, I don't think equity liquidity is nearly as big as an issue as the larger macro-economic forces at work right now.
    Jun 14, 2012. 07:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Basin's Plunge To Historic Lows Is An Opportunity For The Patient [View article]
    Your estimates are likely spot on with current prices. As I mentioned in my article, in the past, I have used dividend yield as my trigger for buying. If my memory serves me correctly, around 9% has been a typical good point to start buying. This cycle, i was far too early, too eager in trying to position ahead of a bottoming in nat gas prices.
    Jun 14, 2012. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Basin's Plunge To Historic Lows Is An Opportunity For The Patient [View article]
    Thanks for the reminder! I keep meaning to take a look at BPT. I wish I had more info to share on it.
    Jun 14, 2012. 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Basin's Plunge To Historic Lows Is An Opportunity For The Patient [View article]
    I wish I had more recent data, but my initial mission was to look for any strange smoking guns that would explain why SJT in particular is damaged goods. I hope I can do more timely analysis with the next 10K....and perhaps slightly higher nat gas prices.
    Jun 14, 2012. 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Basin's Plunge To Historic Lows Is An Opportunity For The Patient [View article]
    I focused here on SJT. There are indeed many other companies available for playing nat gas, especially companies with a diversification into oil. Encana (ECA) is my own personal top choice right now. I have yet to write in detail about it.
    Jun 14, 2012. 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Basin's Plunge To Historic Lows Is An Opportunity For The Patient [View article]
    Except to the extent that higher prices make development of additional reserves possible/economical.
    Jun 14, 2012. 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Australian Dollar Hits Relief Rally Target But Bearish Trend Remains Intact [View article]
    That's definitely a reasonable target after a fresh bearish catalyst emerges.
    Jun 14, 2012. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Australian GDP Growth Soars Despite A Large Drop In The Terms Of Trade [View article]
    Yep - quite surprising but from a technical standpoint, the relief rally makes sense.
    Jun 14, 2012. 12:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So Far, Facebook IPO Has Had No Significant Impact On Housing Market Near HQ [View article]
    Which article is premature? I am criticizing the Zillow article for claiming the FB IPO has already had an impact on the market when the data they use does not demonstrate or support the claims.
    Jun 14, 2012. 12:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge With HDGE For The Long Term, SDS For The Short Term [View article]
    Correct. I just wrote my latest summary of my technical outlook: http://bit.ly/NtHNpJ

    Note that I tend to buy into technically oversold conditions.
    Jun 11, 2012. 06:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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