Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Dr. Duru  

View Dr. Duru's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Commodity Currencies Already Reverse QE3 Gains [View article]
    I have not yet had time to write a full opinion, so here is a quick one. Given my overall opinion the dollar should stabilize for a while, I think euro and pound will tread water waiting for the next catalyst, likely with a slight downward bias. I would not aggressively play either one against the dollar. (I like shorting the yen even better). Let's see what happens when BoE releases minutes as our next milepost. The pound looks just as over-stretched as the euro here.
    In other words, no big bets, just quick trades. You can likely make money in either direction through the volatility. Again, with higher risks when betting against the USD in the next week or so.
    Sep 18, 2012. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity Currencies Already Reverse QE3 Gains [View article]
    I did not end the trade because I expect more strength in USD/CAD. I ended the trade despite my expectations.

    To be more clear, I expected the USD to strengthen across the board. Instead what happened is that the USD moved very fast against the commodity currencies. I was lucky enough to be long USD/CAD during that QE3 reversal, so I decided to just take the profits here and watch how things unfold from here as described in the piece. I expect the dollar index to continue to strengthen, but I am less clear on how much more there is to be gained (versus the risk) of continuing to hold USD/CAD long in the near-term.
    Sep 18, 2012. 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As The Fed Continues Printing Money, Sprinkle Gold And Silver On Your Portfolio [View article]
    Yes, I keep hearing this advice to get the physical stuff. But if we get to the point govt is confiscating gold/silver, I am thinking I may be worrying about even bigger problems? I have also heard to keep it really safe, you would have to store it outside the country.
    Sep 16, 2012. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The QE2 Reference Price Identifies The Strongest Iron Ore And Metallurgical Coal Plays [View article]
    Thanks for the tweak on semantics. If iron ore prices/demand remain suppressed for an extended period of time, these reductions will be cuts in capacity. Of course in the long run, all this capacity should come on line whenever the demand requires it.
    Sep 16, 2012. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Helps Shorts Crowded In Skullcandy, Creates Buying Opportunity [View article]
    I wish I was as quick as you were yesterday. Instead of buying, I decided to study the situation a bit more! I am in now though and buying on dips.
    Sep 14, 2012. 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Now That Bernanke Has Made His Move, It Is Azumi's Turn [View article]
    At the time of writing this comment, USD/JPY is already back above the 78 critical level. I didn't mention in the article that I suspect such a move would take pressure off Azumi to act. Meanwhile, the euro and pound are now above critical resistance against the yen....
    Sep 14, 2012. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using The QE2 Reference Price To Buy Freeport-McMoRan [View article]
    Timing will be everything. A sell-off on disappointment this Thursday should be bought since the Fed will very likely ease "at some point soon."
    Sep 11, 2012. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro: A Good Short Whether Unlimited Bond Purchasing is Successful or Not [View article]
    How is this move inflationary if the bond purchases are sterilized? Or is the premise that sterilization won't work as advertised?
    Sep 10, 2012. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monetary Easing, The Counterfactual, And A Lower Dollar In The Balance [View article]
    Yes, I think the Fed has made it clear it will continue to ease as much as it thinks is necessary. At least Bernanke pays lip service to the growing costs of increasingly extreme measures.
    Sep 10, 2012. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The British Pound Is Back In Fashion [View article]
    I am assuming Europeans will cash in all those francs they seem to be sitting on? Keep an eye on EUR/CHF. It has lifted nicely the past three days. EUR/GBP I suppose is a second beneficiary. Finally, there are other currencies I don't follow, like the krona, that has also served as a store of "safety" for folks looking to change out of some euros.
    Sep 9, 2012. 01:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Loosens Up: Is It Singing For The Euro? [View article]
    I don't trust USD/CHF given the high likelihood of more Fed easing in the coming months. Note how it plunged on Friday. BUT, if something dollar-positive does happen, USD/CHF might become the play around.
    Sep 9, 2012. 01:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Labor Shortages Underline The Housing Recovery [View article]
    Yes, according to the data and interviews presented in the article, there are labor shortages in housing markets where demand is robust: the West and Texas are offered as examples. The shortage makes sense under these conditions given the massive layoffs and implosion of business that occurred 4-5 years ago. At some point, the industry will have to scramble to recover its labor force as the market recovers. And that scramble will include training.
    Sep 7, 2012. 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Little New News From Jackson Hole But Market Readies For Action Anyway [View article]
    The optimal control policy referred to here by Bernanke and earlier by Yellen seem based on fluid dynamic control principles. But you are saying not so?
    Sep 6, 2012. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reserve Bank Of Australia Provides Some Relief For The Australian Dollar [View article]
    Exciting autumn has clearly started!

    I only started paying attention to RBA pronouncements in the last 12-18 months. So, I can't speak to their historical accuracy. For now, I am trying as best I can to use their words as indicators of their likely future actions, and not the actual economic outcomes in Australia. (Hope that fine line makes sense).
    Sep 6, 2012. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Loosens Up: Is It Singing For The Euro? [View article]
    Not now. I was wondering for several weeks as traders clearly kept testing that level. Perhaps they are finally exhausted. EUR/CHF has suddenly become a little more interesting now. At this point though, I prefer to play AUD/CHF so that I can collect some yield while watching this play out.
    Sep 6, 2012. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment