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Dr. Duru  

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  • The British Pound Is Back In Fashion [View article]
    I am assuming Europeans will cash in all those francs they seem to be sitting on? Keep an eye on EUR/CHF. It has lifted nicely the past three days. EUR/GBP I suppose is a second beneficiary. Finally, there are other currencies I don't follow, like the krona, that has also served as a store of "safety" for folks looking to change out of some euros.
    Sep 9, 2012. 01:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Loosens Up: Is It Singing For The Euro? [View article]
    I don't trust USD/CHF given the high likelihood of more Fed easing in the coming months. Note how it plunged on Friday. BUT, if something dollar-positive does happen, USD/CHF might become the play around.
    Sep 9, 2012. 01:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Labor Shortages Underline The Housing Recovery [View article]
    Yes, according to the data and interviews presented in the article, there are labor shortages in housing markets where demand is robust: the West and Texas are offered as examples. The shortage makes sense under these conditions given the massive layoffs and implosion of business that occurred 4-5 years ago. At some point, the industry will have to scramble to recover its labor force as the market recovers. And that scramble will include training.
    Sep 7, 2012. 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Little New News From Jackson Hole But Market Readies For Action Anyway [View article]
    The optimal control policy referred to here by Bernanke and earlier by Yellen seem based on fluid dynamic control principles. But you are saying not so?
    Sep 6, 2012. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reserve Bank Of Australia Provides Some Relief For The Australian Dollar [View article]
    Exciting autumn has clearly started!

    I only started paying attention to RBA pronouncements in the last 12-18 months. So, I can't speak to their historical accuracy. For now, I am trying as best I can to use their words as indicators of their likely future actions, and not the actual economic outcomes in Australia. (Hope that fine line makes sense).
    Sep 6, 2012. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Loosens Up: Is It Singing For The Euro? [View article]
    Not now. I was wondering for several weeks as traders clearly kept testing that level. Perhaps they are finally exhausted. EUR/CHF has suddenly become a little more interesting now. At this point though, I prefer to play AUD/CHF so that I can collect some yield while watching this play out.
    Sep 6, 2012. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pan American Silver Remains A Cheap Play On A Recovery In Silver Prices [View article]
    I believe Fleck did a back of the envelope calculation valuing total reserves. I believe reserve data must be reported in the 10K and/or 8K SEC filings.

    Good point though that I am taking Fleck's assertion at face value!
    Sep 4, 2012. 02:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pan American Silver Remains A Cheap Play On A Recovery In Silver Prices [View article]
    Navidad should make PAAS "insanely" cheap at current levels.
    Sep 4, 2012. 02:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The British Pound Is Back In Fashion [View article]
    I think a carry trade selling the euro and buying the Aussie was already underway earlier this summer. Recent economic data seems to have brought it to a halt. I do agree that if the euro hits crisis mode again, it will be the worst kid on the block all over again...but the pound may benefit much more than the Aussie. The RBA has stated several times it most fears a worsening European crisis. I take that to mean that foreign investors, particularly Europeans, who have piled into Australia will quickly repatriate funds. Should be a fun Fall season....
    Sep 4, 2012. 02:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The British Pound Is Back In Fashion [View article]
    Yeah, 1.7 is definitely realistic if the RBA pre-emptively cuts rates even more. But I think it will be content to watch traders take the currency down for now. I think rates are pretty low by Aussie historical standards.

    Eventually, the pound will weaken again thanks to the wonderful cocktail of economics in the UK, but, as I mentioned, currency markets tend to only follow a few storylines at a time. Right now, the UK's issues are more backburner.
    Sep 2, 2012. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rally Creates Better Risk/Reward For Playing Persistently Large Options Skew [View article]
    Definitely lots of stops getting hit. No coincidence that YELP traded above the 50DMA and only to close right under it. These kinds of stocks are really playthings, not investments.
    Aug 30, 2012. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Positive Milestones For The Residential Housing Market [View article]
    Thanks for the reference. And if you mean avoiding future housing bubbles is a good thing then I agree the change in tastes is likely a good thing!
    Aug 30, 2012. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today In Commodities: Is Corn Poised For A Sell-Off? [View article]
    I agree that corn is due for a correction. I bought puts in CORN.
    Aug 29, 2012. 01:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Farm Economy Is So Healthy, Some Government Subsidies Go To Millionaires [View article]
    So what's your opinion on these high land prices? Is this another bubble in the making? Sounds like it based on your story of overpaying.
    Aug 28, 2012. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • British Pound Breaks Out After Uneventful Summer Olympics In London [View article]
    I agree. $1.60 SEEMS unlikely, but I also thought it unlikely the Aussie would rally much past parity against the U.S. dollar from the summer lows! So, now, I respect the technicals just a little more.. I think a LOT of people are sitting on seat edges waiting for the next UK data points, almost as suspenseful as U.S. econ data these days.
    Aug 27, 2012. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment