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Dr. Duru  

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  • A Good Time To Stop Shorting The Euro [View article]
    The situation with Greece will unfold over time and cause an extra source of risk for trading the euro. Definitely have to be careful. I hope to write another post soon arguing that it is best to just wait until the euro trades either at or above the ECB QE point around 1.16 or for fresh lows. In between should be a LOT of chop. Hedged plays can make sense in the chop as well.
    Feb 4, 2015. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Up To Weaken The Australian Dollar: The Statement On Monetary Policy [View article]
    The market is already changing before the ink is even dry. As usual, I had to lock up my profits after the big move and wait out the next bounce to fade. Even as my head is spinning from the dramatic pounding in the US dollar and soaring commodities as I type, I tentatively rebuilding short positions. The Statement on Monetary Policy will become a much larger decision point than I expected. I also forgot to note that a retails sales report is coming Wednesday.
    Feb 3, 2015. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Shock Drives Currency 'Relief Efforts' Across Many Borders [View article]
    Such rumors will make the next statement on reserves a VERY interesting read! I was reading that the SNB is going for a basket of currencies this time with lots of US dollars. It probably wants to bet where it thinks currencies may actually go up against the franc. Based on the action in the euro at the time of writing (response to Greece agreeing to work with the ECB), the euro may have finally stopped going down for a while. That SHOULD help the SNB.
    Feb 3, 2015. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc Shock Drives Currency 'Relief Efforts' Across Many Borders [View article]
    Yes. If the SNB had its way, removing the EUR/CHF floor would not have caused such an extreme show of strength in the Swiss franc. At the end of the SNB statement that removed the artificial floor, the SNB made a vague "threat" that it might still intervene in currency markets if the franc shows too much strength (I provided a link to that statement where I referenced it). The statement suggests even the Bank may have been surprised by the "Swiss franc shock."
    Feb 3, 2015. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Up To Weaken The Australian Dollar: The Statement On Monetary Policy [View article]
    The momentum in stocks has ended with the end of QE. The market is looking for its next catalyst. It IS notable that ECB QE, China surprise rate cut, and Japan turbo-boost QE have all failed to renew momentum in (US) stocks. Something to watch definitely...
    Feb 3, 2015. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Up To Weaken The Australian Dollar: The Statement On Monetary Policy [View article]
    Where did you find that information? It was not in yesterday's statement. That is a valuable nugget and sorry I missed it.
    Feb 3, 2015. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil drops as U.S. refinery strike continues [View news story]
    Exactly. If anything happens as a result of the strike, gasoline prices should go up and oil prices go down. The oil will just pile up for lack of refinery demand and gas prices go up as there less refined product to go around. This all probably still at the margins unless massive amounts of refining capacity get taken completely off-line.
    Feb 2, 2015. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FXCM Reports An Account Loss Of 3%, Leucadia Tightens Its Grip On The Company [View article]
    LUK is definitely in the driver's seat....and they are highly motivated to see a healthy FXCM.
    Jan 31, 2015. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Forlorn British Pound: The 'Schedule' For Rate Hikes Pushes Out To 2016 [View article]
    It's amazing what a little bit of fortitude can do, eh? Good job sticking with that short position. I had to have similar fortitude when the pound finally bottomed at 1.48 in 2013... Good luck to you as well!
    Jan 31, 2015. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Forlorn British Pound: The 'Schedule' For Rate Hikes Pushes Out To 2016 [View article]
    Things are dynamic day-to-day. For example I closed up GBP/USD on the last bounce, played 1.50 support again, and decided to get out on the next bounce. However, my position on long GBP/JPY is not working out as I would have liked with GBP/JPY cracking its 200DMA. A stop out is likely coming at recent lows. I opened a fresh position short versus euro (using U.S. dollar), so at any time I might decide to open GBP/USD again as a small hedge as I wait out any relief bounce on EUR/USD.

    In other words, I don't trust the pound long or short except for very specific, short-term trades. At our around 1.48 I would definitely try a more aggressive trade long and see whether I can catch a bounce back to 1.50 or so.

    If 1.48 definitively fails, then I would have to be a full bear on the pound going into the May elections.

    What would make me much more constructive on the pound is a GBP/USD above the 50DMA, currently around 1.535 or so. This resistance has held since it first failed in July, 2014. An amazingly persistent and consistent downtrend that I was too slow in accepting (as you know!).

    (And you can see why I am not overly concerned right now with longer-term issues like budget deficits...)

    I hope that clarifies things a little bit.
    Jan 30, 2015. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Forlorn British Pound: The 'Schedule' For Rate Hikes Pushes Out To 2016 [View article]
    By bullish I think you mean my read on the economy? I learned my lesson a while back not to be bullish on the currency. I have traded in and out from both sides of the fence over the past 2 months or so.

    The budget deficit and current account deficit did not prevent the pound from rallying for a year, so I am not as concerned about those numbers as you are from a trading perspective. I am sure they add to the bearish case when the pound is indeed falling, like now. I also recognized in this piece that the bias for the pound is for weakness until at least the elections.
    Jan 30, 2015. 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FXCM Spin Game Doesn't Change Its Misleading Marketing And Disclosures [View article]
    Nice way to put it. That's exactly what is happening. FXCM's complete set of disclosures indicate that it will forgive negative balances at its discretion. It is confusing, and I wish they would clear it up.
    Jan 29, 2015. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dramatic Australian Rate Cut Flip Flop [View article]
    Readers, please note that I posted a chart of FXA as of the close January 28th. FXA closed on January 29th at $77.79. At the time of writing, FXA had already gapped to that level to reflect the overnight selling in the Australian dollar.
    Jan 29, 2015. 07:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Good Time To Stop Shorting The Euro [View article]
    I have an article coming soon addressing that. Look for it under GLD Friday morning. Basically, I think the Fed in general was surprisingly "hawkish" relative to all the soft pedaling being done by its contemporaries in the face of plunging oil and other disinflationary pressures.
    Jan 29, 2015. 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Mixed Bag For The U.S. Housing Market: 2014's Performance In Perspective [View article]
    I couldn't have said it better myself. Thanks for the comment. I am constantly surprised at how the on-going deflationist psychology overlooks the great potential for housing to serve as a store of value over the long-run which should feature a resurgence of inflation....
    Jan 27, 2015. 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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