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Dr. Duru

 
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  • The Federal Reserve's Latest Policy Decision Frustrates Bears And Central Banks Alike [View article]
    Good point to differentiate the two economies. I will be more precise next time. (And it provides a more refined lens when looking at these events!)

    There has been a lot of work and research on the use of core versus non-core inflation, even within the Fed on both sides of the debate. I think the best distinction to make is that the Fed has the least control over fluctuations in the price of food and energy using interest rates, except of course if it tightens so much it chokes off significant chunks of economic activity. But ultimately I agree that the Fed has less control than is advertised, but the *perception* of control has worked amazingly well for the financial economy.
    Jun 22 09:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Owens Corning Updates 2014 Earnings Expectations; Lowers 2014 Outlook Due to Continued Volume Weakness in its Roofing Business [View article]
    I was thinking something similar. I wanted to see whether there are any other publicly traded roofing suppliers to cross-reference...
    Jun 21 01:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baby Boomers Seem Unlikely To Mass Exit From Existing Housing Anytime Soon [View article]
    I covered this partially in another piece quoting some suggestive numbers about an increase in non-investor cash buyers. It is not definitive, but it seems that some Boomers are starting to take advantage of the recovery in housing prices to move on...and in the process have been able to sell their existing homes. The numbers are likely small so it is something to monitor over time as data get clearer.

    Remember that some portion of the boomer housing wealth will pass on to their heirs. I wrote about the research on this last year. What was missing from that analysis is what heirs in turn tend to do with inherited property.

    Regardless, the unfortunately reality that is seeping into the whole suburb versus city core debate is that the cities are indeed so desirable that they are getting far too expensive for the average person/household to afford. The pain is most severe in countries where housing booms never quite ended. In the U.S., the deflationary mindset remains strong, but the few areas with strong job markets are already showing the strains. Ironically enough, desirable but expensive cities, make the suburbs look pretty attractive all over again for the same old school reasons. One more dynamic that will play over time that in my opinion is not settled yet....
    Jun 17 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baby Boomers Seem Unlikely To Mass Exit From Existing Housing Anytime Soon [View article]
    I think the data so far show Boomers are not monolithic and cover a broad spectrum of economic activity and decisions. Thus, I have been more focused on demonstrating why it makes sense to be skeptical about doomsday scenarios than to assert that all will be fine and rosy.

    It is very possible that if Boomers must live through another deep downturn, it will actually compel the ones without mortgages (37% now, and likely to increase in due time) even more to stay put. Nothing worse in a stagflationary environment than to sell your home just to pay into an environment with skyrocketing rent. The downsizing from one home to another could still work if there is enough equity to pay cash for the smaller home (which some boomer are apparently starting to do as I noted in an earlier piece).
    Jun 17 01:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baby Boomers Seem Unlikely To Mass Exit From Existing Housing Anytime Soon [View article]
    Thanks for the confirming anecdotes... Go Mom! :)
    Jun 17 01:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baby Boomers Seem Unlikely To Mass Exit From Existing Housing Anytime Soon [View article]
    However the demographic shift plays out, I don't think it will catch us by sudden surprise given how many are watching this so closely...and how so many are expecting a boomer-generated calamity. It is a huge and important topic. I think it seems like the shift in millennial caught folks by surprise more because it happened in conjunction with the financial crisis which was the bigger headline and which caught so many flat-footed. What is surprising folks right now is how little the financial crisis seems to have impacted the *housing* stats for boomers.

    These data are definitely just one piece of the puzzle. I wish I could write one long research study that pulls everything together, but instead I post notable tidbits when I get them...
    Jun 17 01:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Post-Momentum Angst: Example Rally Software [View article]
    You also reminded me to concede that a break to a new low for RALY would be particularly bad news because the huge trading volume at the current lows SHOULD mark a bottom. A washout. A fresh all-time low indicates new motivated sellers, and a new search for a catalyst to end the downdraft.
    Jun 16 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Post-Momentum Angst: Example Rally Software [View article]
    Thanks for the alternative interpretations. In particular, good catch that I was quoting analysts who provided underwriting to the IPO and are thus prone to be committed to the stock for a long way down.

    I would only add that at some point in valuation - which I of course think was around $8.50 - the market stops discounting bad news and starts looking over the horizon, especially if the market opportunity is really still out there. So, until I see news get a lot worse for RALY, that is NEW/unexpected bad news, I think $5 is too low a projection for an ultimate bottom.

    Should be interesting...
    Jun 16 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carney Rate Hike Talk Drives Over-Eager Buying Of The British Pound [View article]
    I don't know enough about the UK housing market yet to understand what's causing higher prices, but structural problems with supply certainly do not surprise me. Thanks for the additional color.
    Jun 13 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Potential Prevailing Tailwind For Housing-Related Stocks [View article]
    We definitely have structural issues suppressing the first-time homebuyer market. I also agree that without these buyers, the housing market recovery cannot truly begin. The demographics that are part of the structural issues are likely temporary but will play out slowly over time. Meanwhile, whenever the economy gets on more solid footing, we could find these structural issues also resolving much more quickly than expected.
    Jun 12 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Potential Prevailing Tailwind For Housing-Related Stocks [View article]
    Thanks for the reminder on Ryland! I keep dropping them from my radar. I am fixing that now.
    Jun 12 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Chance To Buy Corn At A Potential Bottom [View article]
    Got it. That all makes sense. Thanks again! Any recommendations on sources I should be reading to keep up better with the dynamics of the market? I have just occasionally checked out the releases from the Department of Agriculture.
    Jun 9 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hints Of Bottoming For Twitter [View article]
    Old habits change slowly in all these cases. We just have a few early analysts who are changing allegiances. The stocks you mentioned cover a spectrum of valuations and all enjoy relatively strong analyst support. TWTR should be slow in moving. It is still not a cheap stock and doesn't qualify for fervent bottom-fishing.

    As I mentioned, I think now the best TWTR will do for a while is churn around current levels. Such a consolidation would be very constructive. The reaction to July earnings could be the make or break even more so than the next lockup expiration.
    Jun 9 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of Canada Gets More Bearish Ahead Of More News Of Employment Stagnation [View article]
    We can definitely add that. I often neglect to account for political influences/constraints on monetary policy since I am not as interested in the politics of financial markets. Thanks for the addition....
    Jun 9 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Chance To Buy Corn At A Potential Bottom [View article]
    Thanks for that explanation! I was of course pretty excited during the previous rally. I thought vindication had finally arrived. I had not had time to look into the drivers for the latest price decline, so you saved me a lot of time.

    Hard to believe I wrote this almost a year ago. At the time, I thought I would start writing more articles related to agriculture, but I have not managed to do a single one.

    Another Tecurium fund, WEAT, looks similar to CORN. Given your commentary, I am going to keep an eye on both. JJG as well.
    Jun 8 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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