Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Dr. Duru  

View Dr. Duru's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Senior Sell-Off Hits A Speed Bump: It Is Too Expensive To Sell [View article]
    Except that is not a first option for seniors who want to stay close to family or an established network of friends and community. These folks in particular have lived in the same house for 30 years or so.
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Senior Sell-Off Hits A Speed Bump: It Is Too Expensive To Sell [View article]
    Right - but their original goal was to move away from suburban living and to live a more urban lifestyle in a denser community. My impression is that downsizing is a secondary goal that was there because they assumed they could use the money-saved to afford the urban living.
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The January Barometer Appears Set To Fail Again This Year [View article]
    Are you saying the January barometer is a better predictor of 2nd half performance than full year performance?
    Mar 2, 2015. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Weekend Rate Cut In China Fails To Stir The Australian Dollar; RBA Now On Tap [View article]
    Iron ore. Commodities in general. A turn-around depends on the domestic economy improving outside of commodities.
    Mar 2, 2015. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Aligns With Other Central Banks On Explaining Oil's Decline And Its Economic Impact [View article]
    It is truly a strange thing that there is wide opinion on the specific drivers, or at least the magnitude of the various impacts. It keeps me from trying to make pinpoint predictions! Having said that, I can't but help lean on the supply argument when I see charts/data on just how much supply has soared and the continued increase despite plunging prices. Suppliers clearly think they can still sell to *someone* for *some* price even if that oil is just stored on a tanker off the coast (a scheme that seems destined to be our next example of dramatic failure i the oil patch - after the early money sells their inventory...).
    Feb 25, 2015. 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yet Another Reason To Like CORN: A Low Valuation Relative To Gold [View article]
    Thanks for the list of resources! I appreciate you considering my articles even though my bullishness keeps running counter to your bearishness.
    Feb 25, 2015. 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yet Another Reason To Like CORN: A Low Valuation Relative To Gold [View article]
    Agreed. I should have read your comment before I responded.
    Feb 25, 2015. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yet Another Reason To Like CORN: A Low Valuation Relative To Gold [View article]
    The fee is on the high side, but it does not bother me much. This is still a specialized, niche space for investing/trading. Also, I think Teucrium is doing a pretty good job managing the cost and friction of rolling over futures contracts. There are plenty of futures-based funds that lose a LOT due to poorly structured process for managing these transactions.
    Feb 25, 2015. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yet Another Reason To Like CORN: A Low Valuation Relative To Gold [View article]
    I agree with you in principle, but I can't help keeping this ratio on my radar given the coincident bottom at historic highs for the ratio last year. I am particularly interested in thinking through how this ratio can reflect on sentiment toward the attraction of holding/buying physical assets and products. Time should soon tell...
    Feb 25, 2015. 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yet Another Reason To Like CORN: A Low Valuation Relative To Gold [View article]
    I agree on a slow, grinding trajectory upward as farmers make adjustments to the low-price environment.

    I suspect even corn will be very popular under a "the Fed has lost control" scenario... or at the very least the farmland under those crops will soar even more in value...
    Feb 25, 2015. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Franc: The Struggle To Become A Goldilocks Currency [View article]
    It is interesting that the SNB gets a free pass in world central banking opinion on currency manipulation. I don't think it will stop anytime soon. The SNB has a history of openly setting monetary policy to force the exchange rate. The SNB's free rein is a by-product of its fierce independence. The dilemma of course is that they have to manipulate their currency against other currencies, thus the interdependence with the monetary policy of other central banks.

    What is "fair" is probably a relative valuation. The Swiss likely think it is not "fair" for the folks in the eurozone to act so forcefully to try to export their deflation through the ECB's monetary policy.

    Since the SNB thought 1.20 for EUR/CHF was over-valued for the franc, I am not surprised by the on-going valuation rhetoric. The market's persistence in pressing the franc to even higher valuations does show the limitations of financial autocracy in the face of free markets. It also makes me wonder whether setting the floor was worth it in the first place given all the dislocations that have occurred since the SNB capitulated. I would love to see someone try to crank some numbers on it in another year or so....
    Feb 23, 2015. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • While Cliffs Natural Resources Lashes Out, Rio Tinto Coolly Maintains The Pressure [View article]
    I appreciate you providing that answer. RIO has frequently noted about its "premium", meaning high quality, ore as a competitive advantage. Australia also reports its iron ore export numbers divided by lumps and fines.
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • While Cliffs Natural Resources Lashes Out, Rio Tinto Coolly Maintains The Pressure [View article]
    You can see the over-supply in the massive inventories built up in China. If the market were not over-supplied, no mine would need to shut down because buyers would be scrambling to find iron ore anywhere they could get it for whatever it cost.
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While Cliffs Natural Resources Lashes Out, Rio Tinto Coolly Maintains The Pressure [View article]
    As I noted in the article, CLF's lone mine in Australia can continue to operate for tis remaining life because CLF has cut costs to the bare bones. However, it is interesting that CLF's is claiming it is the majors in Australia who will ultimately fail. I think it says plenty that CLF's has explicitly stated that once it closes its lone mine in Australia, it is done with the seaborne trade from Australia. So are they then going to out-compete from outside Australia?
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While Cliffs Natural Resources Lashes Out, Rio Tinto Coolly Maintains The Pressure [View article]
    Good point. I did not make it clear enough that the U.S. dollar was in weakening cycle during the big commodities run-up going into 2007/2008. The U.S. dollar was also weakening sharply off post-crisis (and 2010) highs going into the 2011 top. I am just not clear to what extent CLF's iron ore business in North America relies on exports versus the domestic markets.
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,713 Comments
469 Likes