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Dr. Duru  

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  • Solar stocks off sharply after oil plunge, Greek "no" vote, Chinese tech selloff [View news story]
    Instead of implying there really is a correlation between solar and oil, how about just titling this a sell-off in the energy sector?
    Jul 6, 2015. 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit As The Spread Widens Between The U.S. Dollar And Turkish Lira [View article]
    The Turkish lira is already at historically weak levels against the U.S. dollar. I assume you are saying that more records are to come?

    I also noted that your Fed Watch pie chart seems dated with forecasts included for the past 9 months. For an update, you can see my piece here:

    Finally, I am not sure why a mobile company will necessarily be hurt by the forces you mention. Will people actually cut off their cell phone service if economic conditions deteriorate? Are there options for going minimal whereas now many are still buying premium packages, etc...? Looking at the chart for TKC, I see a trading range developing over the past few months that could be the basis for a bottom. So perhaps TUR is the better (meaning more efficient/effective), less risky, way to short Turkish equities if a trader chooses to go that route.
    Jul 6, 2015. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Be A Contrarian And Buy The Australian Dollar [View article]
    I would have to agree here. If Australia is indeed entering its first recession in 25 years at a time that is counter other major economies like UK and the US, then you have to expect a lot more downside in the currency. Moreover, it is best to take into account what is happening on the US side of the ledger. Part of the big move down is the policy divergence between the US and Australia.

    So, I appreciate the attempt at a contrarian perspective, but I think after connecting the dots, it is hard to take a long-term bullish perspective until at least some more positive nuggets show up. For forex, I prefer a shorter-term perspective since things change so rapidly (with SOME exceptions). I think AUD/USD is oversold in the short-term, and am playing it that way. Beyond that, I hesitate to make any prognostication.
    Jul 6, 2015. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Australian Dollar Poised For A Bounce After Holiday Trading Overreacts To Economic Data [View article]
    Thanks for the feedback. I try not to get distracted by consensus expectations because I rarely have visibility into what goes into those forecasts. Compared to previous months, retail sales growth was good...absent over-optimistic forecasts. I haven't considered a tie-in with the Canadian economy or monetary policy. From a trading perspective, I do agree that if the Bank of Canada gets even more dovish, sellers will descend upon the Australian dollar.

    The expectations for China's blow-up have gone on for years. I have to now see it to believe it. China took another step in command and control capitalism by establishing its own "Plunge Protection Team" (PPT), so the stock market may be done going down for a while now.

    In the meantime, I am leaving my long position on the Australian dollar where it is. I have done some opportunistic hedging with longs on GBP/AUD that are very short-term in nature. I am now expanding that to shorts on AUD/JPY as a hedge on other strategies.

    If AUD/USD DOES fall below 0.74 or so, I will have to get on board with the imminent "collapse" scenario that you suggest!
    Jul 6, 2015. 07:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Teucrium Corn ETF Pops On June's Quarter-End Agriculture Reports [View article]
    Sure - I'd go for both as well.
    Jul 5, 2015. 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Teucrium Corn ETF Pops On June's Quarter-End Agriculture Reports [View article]
    Price targets are tough here. If this rally is sustainable, I am not so worried about that. From a technical standpoint, 2 points makes sense: flat YTD which is coming right up at $26.64; and the high of the last rally at $27.71. I personally am more inclined to follow the data more closely now for clues on the sustainability of another rally.
    Jul 5, 2015. 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heavy Rains Increase Importance Of June Grain Stocks Report [View article]
    Gosh - good point. I didn't even think about that...I wonder whether it is enough to move the publicly traded stocks though.
    Jun 30, 2015. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Trade The Swiss Franc As A Grexit Looms Larger [View article]
    And as it turned out, most of the action was in the euro as the SNB went to action right away manipulating the currency. I think they moved too early....
    Jun 30, 2015. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turkish Lira Completes A Post-Election Reversal As Central Bank Waits On Inflation [View article]
    Thanks for the context. The lira has been getting stronger against the euro and in the wake of the latest in the Greek drama, the lira is surprisingly marginally gaining on the euro again. There should be a huge snapback once the market gets past Greece (as it will at some point in the near future - as has been the pattern anyway).
    Jun 28, 2015. 10:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar May Be Getting Stronger, But Betting Against 'The Cable' Does Not Make Sense [View article]
    Where do you get data on market pricing of BoE rate moves?

    I also agree that the better risk/reward for going long the pound was back when the market was ignoring the good economic data. With Carney already making the rate hike threat prematurely a whole year ago, I am not sure how much credibility one should give some other member of the BoE making such claims...
    Jun 28, 2015. 01:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turkish Lira Completes A Post-Election Reversal As Central Bank Waits On Inflation [View article]
    Definitely surrounded. In my previous post, I included a map as a reminder to everyone of all the hotspots within a "stone's throw" of Turkey.
    Jun 28, 2015. 01:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Appears Poised To Heed Odds For A December Rate Hike [View article]
    All that logic makes sense, so I find it an interesting (and likely tradeable) contrast that the Fed Futures gives a September rate hike very little chance...
    Jun 27, 2015. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Teucrium Corn ETF Faces A Major Test As Crop Data Continues To Weigh Heavily [View article]
    Yeah - I am surprised I am the only one on SA tracking it much. And I am only writing about it sporadically! I am actually in the middle of writing something today. I think there is a good chance that prices could hold this time, but let's see how much corn farmers are able to plant through recent flooding and poor weather conditions.
    Jun 27, 2015. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navigating Narratives As The Dollar Looks To End Its Recent Weakness [View article]
    I like playing trading ranges though.

    The move on China PMI was too consistent to be pure coincidence. Very possible that some big trader had intertwined trades linked to the report. Anyway, I thought it was significant enough to point out. The Australian dollar's quick recovery from the news was the real way to interpret the news - more of the same and nothing unusual.

    Where did you get the odds pricing in the first rate hike for the UK? That is a dramatic change, and I am not sure why the market would gain such a sudden surge in confidence in a rate hike.
    Jun 26, 2015. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto Trades Close To Its 52-Week Low And Yields More Than 5% [View article]
    I was just surprised you didn't lay it out in the piece. Note that Goldman Sachs is bearish on iron ore prices. Your forecasts are definitely at the far bullish end of varied opinions.
    Jun 23, 2015. 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment