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Dr. Duru

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  • Gold Enthusiam Is Waning Again Despite Surging Before Gold's Recent Peak [View article]
    Thanks! I plan to get more rigorous with this indicator so stay tuned!
    Mar 4 12:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 Breaks March 2009 Lows When Priced in Gold [View article]
    Thanks for the reference. As long as the Federal Reserve and other central banks don't plan on printing massive amounts of paper over the "long run" I can see stocks finally catching back up to gold some day far in the future. Until then, the dollar looks to be headed ever downward in the time horizon I am focused on right now (since 2000 to be exact) - with the occasional relief rally of course.
    Aug 13 06:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seagate Not Likely to Find 'Ruthenium-Like' Relief From Soaring Rare Earth Prices [View article]
    I have had Great Western for a while now. I think Jack Lifton is the best reference on that piece. Here is one of his latest: www.techmetalsresearch.../

    You can see other articles on the right-hand side of the page. To me, basically, Great Western has valuable supply chain expertise, REE heavies, and good intermediate-term prospects.
    Jul 28 05:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enthusiasm for Gold Continues to Wane [View article]
    Thanks for adding that clarification. I referred to some of your points in my previous post on this topic.
    I should have also mentioned that my early interest in using Google Trends search data was to see whether we could get any indicator of whether a bubble was underway. In a bubble, I would expect a tremendous surge in search interest as just about all the possible new entrants and skeptics alike finally get on board and stampede for info, investments, etc...
    I am not certain this will happen, but I like keeping my eye on these data because I suspect it will happen. As I suggested above, we are likely still far, far off from such bubble behavior. Plenty of gold skepticism abounds.
    Jul 24 10:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seagate Blames a "Bubble" In Rare Earth Prices for Causing a Margin Squeeze [View article]
    Also note that as of the 2010 annual report, Molycorp estimates that its Bastnasite ore contains about .05% Dysprosium and that the company has developed the expertise to process Dysprosium (and other REEs...)
    Jul 23 03:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Conditions Quickly Move Molycorp to Price Share Offering and Convertible [View article]
    I forgot to ask whether Molycorp's magnet manufacturing business and its acquisition of Santoku America are steps in the right direction on developing domestic skills for producing end products from rare earths....?
    Jun 11 05:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Appears to Be Topping Out...Again [View article]
    I should have said more accurately that rising oil prices are a potential confirming signal of a weakening dollar. An effect, not cause.
    May 10 09:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chart of the Week: Trend In Cash Holdings Beginning to Shift? [View article]
    Either that, or folks are pulling down cash from these accounts to meet expenses and pay bills.
    Jan 25 10:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Follow the Mutual Funds: Solar Is Bottoming [View article]
    It would be good to know when else these funds have added purchases of shares. Since they have existing holdings, I can only assume that late Nov is not the only time they have added to holdings....and that would mean that their buying is not a strong bullish signal. The latest bounce in solar stocks is also not the first. The bounce alone is not sufficient to mark a bottom. For example, FSLR ran up 70% in late October and into the election, only to make fresh 52-week lows by Nov 20.
    Dec 1 07:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Type Two Errors & Stock Market Corrections [View article]
    I agree with the last three comments above. Even the title is misleading. I thought this piece might be some generalized theory on how investors/traders commit type 2 errors ahead of a stock market correction. So I wondered, what type 2 errors could they be...?
    Jul 13 01:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KB Home: First Time Home Buyers And Margins Deliver A Sustained Post-Earnings Kick [View article]
    The cancellation rate is nothing new and likely why no analyst asked about it in the call. From the latest earnings report: "The second quarter cancellation rate as a percentage of gross orders was 28% in 2014, compared to 27% in 2013. As a percentage of beginning backlog, the second quarter cancellation rate was 30% in 2014 and 29% in 2013." So, even in the middle of a great selling run in 2013, the current cancellation rate should be considered normal for KBH. I look at this and see upside potential as they get their mortgage JV with NSM going and get fewer cancels because of hiccups in the mortgage/closing process.

    I have written before that trying to line up macro numbers with individual homebuilders can be misleading because the homebuilders have all honed their businesses to specific markets. It would be more accurate/helpful to find the mortgage app rates in the (strong) markets that form KBH's base: California, Texas, and Colorado (and now to some extend Orlando it seems). The economic numbers in those areas definitely support their claim: strong job growth and robust economies.
    Jul 2 10:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With The January Barometer [View article]

    And I actually was just doing the analysis to see the numbers for myself. I did not expect it to expose these serious flaws. This barometer is so old, I just assumed the work has already been done to verify it as a solid enough indicator to mention year-after-year...
    Feb 3 08:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2014 Homebuilder Breakout Begins Early With A Very Bullish D.R. Horton [View article]
    I got some DHI on the small dip the day after earnings. I would definitely love to buy a lot more at lower prices, but I don't think the market will give me the opportunity anytime soon.
    Jan 30 09:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calculated Risk And I Have Made A Bet On Housing's Direction In 2014 [View article]
    Indeed. CR has not been a perma-optimist. He called the housing bubble. He called the recovery. It doesn't mean he will always be right in the future, but he clearly tries go where the data take him. Of course, folks thought CR was nuts at the time. I latched onto him after I discovered he had the same opinion about the timing of a recovery that I had.
    Jan 4 04:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sobering Assessment Of Economic And Political Impacts On The Housing Recovery From The National Association Of Homebuilders [View article]
    Thanks for pointing that out. I assumed the wording was off there. Note they used the word "from" not "since" which in itself is strange wording. Regardless, rates definitely topped out in September. With the Fed apparently on ice for the rest of this year, mainly thanks to the govt shutdown, rates should go no higher for a while...
    Nov 4 07:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment