Seeking Alpha

Dr. Duru

 
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  • Celebrating Apple's New All-Time Highs With 4 Reasons For Caution [View article]
    I fully agree that the massive buyback is important to consider. I just did not think it was a critical piece of the current sentiment story. I did cover the buyback in my March 2nd piece (http://seekingalpha.co...) where I worried about *negative* sentiment despite the massive size of the buyback. In that case, I relied on price action as my guide forward and stayed patient...

    However, your comment does make me think I should have flagged the buyback as a very likely (main) driver of the very systematic march upward shown in the above stock chart!
    Sep 2 02:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celebrating Apple's New All-Time Highs With 4 Reasons For Caution [View article]
    I think you misunderstood the context of my assessment and my definition of "market sentiment" in this context. Apple is definitely not "fully recovered" based on ratios to the major indices.

    My reference to market sentiment is not relative to the ratios you describe. It is strictly about the short interest as a proxy for bearish sentiment, options trading as a bear/bull signal, volume action if relevant (not relevant for the current case), changes in analyst opinion, price action relative to important technical levels and indicators, and, when available, other indicators which might reveal the market's general bias toward shares. There were more of these signals that I could document in my last piece on Apple sentiment.

    I am also not staking a claim that sentiment is the only important factor for assessing Apple. The ratios you calculated are symptomatic of Apple's declining P/E that represents the market's declining willingness to pay for Apple shares. As I noted, this decline has endured for many years. I think it could be the most dominant theme for Apple over longer time horizons. (Sentiment is based digested in shorter timeframes). If (when?) this trend finally breaks, I will consider a major bullish turning point for Apple's shares.

    Finally, in an earlier post (March 2nd: http://seekingalpha.co...), I noted how Apple failed to respond to the buybacks and pointed out reasons for concern in sentiment. Fortunately, while the stock was not getting a boost from what I also saw as positive catalysts, it was at least not selling off in response. So, I considered it worthwhile to stay patient and wait for the market to "catch up." I basically drew the line at new lows for 2014. Fortunately, that worked out...
    Sep 2 02:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Rumor, Sell The News: The Case Of Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference [View article]
    Thanks for the opportunity to clarify. "Rumor" is used loosely in the adage. It also refers to announcements ahead of an event. In the case of the split, what can happen is that traders will load up on shares ahead of the split, knowing that there are a bunch of buyers waiting for the event because the shares will be "cheaper" at that time. The folks who loaded up ahead of time, take advantage of the surge in liquidity to unload their shares.

    So, there is a swirl here and very hard to unpack. Monday turned out to be a down day, as usual, but at least buyers stepped in as Apple's one-day loss reached the median historical loss.

    Since I am bullish Apple here, I am most intrigued about the relative consistency of buying ahead of WWDC rather than the consistency of losses during WWDC.

    Finally, to those who have absolute confidence in the perpetuity of good fortune, like Apple's historic bull run since 2003, I say kudos. I have never been that confident about anything! Nor have I ever had such clairvoyance. (For example, the good friend who finally converted me to Apple, has been a die-hard long-time holder much to his benefit. I just wish I had met him a lot earlier in the run-up).
    Jun 3 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Rumor, Sell The News: The Case Of Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference [View article]
    I don't think I really qualify as a pundit.

    I didn't think there was space in this article to explain my latest trade on AAPL. Particularly SA's policy against technical articles made me cautious not to go there in this piece. I will be explaining the latest trade on my blog. Bottom-line: I sold my shares on Friday as I noticed a fade developing. I interpreted it as a *short-term* sell signal. I am VERY eager to buy the dips (thus my disclosure that I could go long within the next 72 hours). I am also very focused on my Apple Trading Model (also covered on my blog) which could have me long as soon as Monday morning depending on how the open unfolds.
    Jun 1 04:57 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Post-Icahn And Pre-September News Cycle, Apple Enthusiasm Rushes Back In [View article]
    Apple Insider produced a story today about Apple taking shipments of set top boxes. Presumably this indicates the potential for some major Apple TV product announcement. I for one will be crossing my fingers! :)

    Story here: http://bit.ly/18DwOA6
    Sep 4 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Post-Icahn And Pre-September News Cycle, Apple Enthusiasm Rushes Back In [View article]
    To be clear, I am noting that Apple goes through *phases* where the put/call ratio is strongly correlated with share price. I think the chart speaks for itself. Of course there are lots of influences on the stock, but those go in and out of "style" as well. For example, sometimes, AAPL is a great play on its low valuation. Another time, sentiment changes, and it is all about fear of declining margins. Etc...
    Sep 4 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Post-Icahn And Pre-September News Cycle, Apple Enthusiasm Rushes Back In [View article]
    Thanks for the kudos. I agree on the commentary. Thanks everyone.
    Sep 4 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn Secures Apple's Bottom [View article]
    The concerns are the same but the last two earnings seem to be turning opinion around that AAPL can overcome these pressures. Icahn's move here will be interpreted as being a positive indicator for October earnings which will now be even more critical than the previous two. I suspect the stock will rally into those earnings all else being equal (that is the general stock market doesn't suffer a large correction during that time)
    Aug 14 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Earnings Trading Patterns And Sentiment Collide With Apple's Recent Downtrend [View article]
    I forgot to note it was a 420/430 spread. It was looking REAL good when Apple hit $430 or so in after-hours trading. I am actually a bit stunned it managed to fall all the way backward to $405 by the end of trading . VERY bad sign and poor momentum for tomorrow's open. A negative close tomorrow would signal a resumption of Apple's on-going weakness. Too bad too. It was looking really good there for a while!
    Apr 23 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Earnings Trading Patterns And Sentiment Collide With Apple's Recent Downtrend [View article]
    I never even thought to look at serial patterns. As you can tell from the charts, I focused on year-over-year. I don't have time now, but I will look into this. Since AAPL's history is dominated by a long, extended uptrend, doubtful Apple has had many 3-quarter strings of poor earnings.
    Apr 23 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Earnings Trading Patterns And Sentiment Collide With Apple's Recent Downtrend [View article]
    Yes. Expires this Friday although I would prefer longer, like May. Just happened to have this call spread as an outcrop from trading last week.

    If I were long over 1000 shares with avg price of $550, I would have sold a while ago! But at this point, I would be more interested in buying some puts to hedge such a huge position. I would not replace with calls because of the size of the potential loss if the timing is wrong.
    Apr 23 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Earnings Trading Patterns And Sentiment Collide With Apple's Recent Downtrend [View article]
    We are all waiting (and hoping) for a positive report that gets a positive reaction. Good luck to you!
    Apr 23 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apparent Lack Of Negative Sentiment On Apple Makes It Hard To Call A Bottom [View article]
    Thanks. You also reminded me that I didn't do my own rough calculation on what the market seems to be assuming about a future deep dive in Apple's earnings potential...
    Mar 11 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apparent Lack Of Negative Sentiment On Apple Makes It Hard To Call A Bottom [View article]
    That's correct. Short interest in AAPL is very small and it has not grown for quite some time....
    Mar 11 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apparent Lack Of Negative Sentiment On Apple Makes It Hard To Call A Bottom [View article]
    Article published a day after I originally wrote it, so quick technical update...

    AAPL bounced nicely on Tuesday after tagging the lower "Bollinger Band" which even in this downtrend has tended to favor a quick bounce for AAPL. However, the stock has established a new, steeper downtrend that has diverged from the 20-day moving average. Tuesday's sharp rally also stopped right at the presumed support (now resistance) at $431/432.

    I would like to think the recent low of $420 will hold as "the bottom" finally, but there is no evidence yet to suggest a firm bottom was put in place...
    Mar 6 05:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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