Dr. Duru

Dollar Rises, Gold Stays Up

Omoc: I believe FCX is 9% gold. And some molybdemum, not sure how much. But the majority of their mining is in copper. I should have also mentioned that I recognize copper will likely remain linked to the health of the housing industry and other cyclical industrial sectors.


On Feb 13 09:32 AM omooc wrote:

> I thought FCX would be a play for gold rather than for copper. Unclear
> why SLV is so strong relative to GLD.

Bear Market Bounce Check-Up; Focus on Solar and Gold

I sure haven't read Ted Butler. But I noted earlier that shorts were piling into oil (using USO as a proxy - yes, I know it's not perfect), but it is hard to call the entire 2008 run short-covering, so I am hard-pressed to call the last move up in oil simply short-covering just because a large drop ensued. Will be interesting to have another look at the data in another month or so.
Also, I should have been more clear - I believe in the fundamentals of oil over the longer haul, and I am not making any call on what oil will do in the short-term. I am simply noting that IF oil continues down from here, then it would be my guess that it is due to a stumbling global economy. If it quickly rebounds from here, it would be my guess that the global economy remains capable of paying the price.
As far as selling gold on a Fed hike, I am sticking with that signal. My presumption is that the dollar will strengthen on rate hikes. If the dollar stays weak, then I will get back into gold. I'm flexible. Regardless, I don't think the Fed will dare to raise rates for quite some time yet.
Checking out a chart of the dollar I see that the dollar was in decline in the 70s and rose sharply in the 80s (until 1987). And what did gold? Gold rose in the 70s, super-spiking into 1980 and generally declined from there. So, I don't think I am too far off from taking my cues for what to do with gold on what happens to the dollar. I just made a leap to suggest that rates hikes = stronger dollar. I understand it may not work out that way, but I won't be willing to stay in my position waiting for the proof.
Gold chart from www.kitco.com
Dollar chart from search.live.com/images...