Dr. Duru

Now I'm a Lagging Indicator Too

Thanks, JAC!


On May 08 09:41 AM JAC wrote:

> Well best of luck in the new endeavours. I am sure you will do well
> (your postings which I follow, show you have the smarts, diligence
> and patience to do well).

Buying the Paulson Panic

I CLEARLY need to do an update on my "confidence" in our democratic system! Stay tuned....

Time To Sell This Bear Market Bounce?

Clarifications:
Stinkdyr: I said in this post I already bought more gold into the "falling knife" on Monday.
Win: My disclosure states that the puts are left-over from a hedge on QLD. This means I was holding BOTH QLD and puts on the Qs. I closed out the QLD and decided to hang on to the (Sept 42) puts. As I mentioned in this post, I am NOT bearish on the indices right now and will not be until we make decisive new lows. I am actively looking for new entry points on the QLD. I will revist this bull/bear bias if/when we retest May highs...

Does the VIX Need To Spike In a Climactic Low?

I like the idea of a "Frustration Index." Something everyone can identify with. Sort of like the stock market equivalent of the "misery index" which I think adds inflation and the unemployment rates...

Inflation Fears Are Overblown

I agree with Davy J: there is some circular logic in here which locks in a deflationary effect no matter which direction oil prices go.

I also agree with Eric Hart: this piece is very mainstream as far as the pundits, academics, and monetary policymakers go. And I would argue that until oil recently proved it could hold above $110/barrel or so, the vast majority of talk we heard in the media pooh-poohed inflationary threats, mainly because the Fed told us so. One thing we used to hear was that surely oil would go back down to $70, $80, etc...

In the end, it's the expectations that count most. Oil and food inflation are driving expectations for future inflation ever upward. And, eventually, yes, labor will begin protesting for higher wages once it really sinks in that counting on credit cards and home equity will no longer support current living standards. The wage story is probably the last leg of the "inflation is no threat" stool.

Finally, I am curious to find out where that chart came from showing real wage growth? I often here pundits who claim the economy has been and is just fine say that wage growth has been healthy. It never made sense to me, and I have been looking for the real data in a clear and understandable form.

Market Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Excellent points. I often lament the anti-saving, pro-consumption culture supported by America's recent easy-credit and easy-money policies. But I also tend to forget the real story is the extra burden placed on the savers in the economy and the squeeze felt by those who must live from savings.

The S&P 500 Is Struggling - And Peaking

Hi Pangaea,
Not sure why the charts didn't look for you here, but thanks for taking the time to go to the source.
Interesting question on the VIX. It is right where we started the year, so, in that sense, it does reflect some complacency. We sure cannot get a washout move without much higher (relative) VIX readings. Time will soon tell I imagine.
I am also not sure where else to get the T2108 chart. Let me know if you find any!

The S&P 500 Is Struggling - And Peaking

I sure am. And not happy about it right now. I am still thinking through my exit criteria on it.

Bulls Twist Inflation into Being a Good Thing

Good commentary. I love that logic. No one even btohers to consider any other explanations. It is quite easy to have inflation when currency is being printed hand over fist. And it is quite easy to have slow growth when these very same printing presses reduce faith in the financial system and contract the availability of credit for investing and purchasing. These are truly interesting times.