Dr. Duru

Has the Sun Set on Solar Energy Stocks?

jcordes - I am not sure what thesis you are referring to. The main thesis in this piece is that my earlier claim that solar has decoupled from oil was erroneous. We can argue about cause and effect, but numerically (mathematically) the correlation is there...as oil has come down, solar has generally come down. And of course, that could change again at some point later.
JoeJoe - I did not talk much about specific entry and exit points on the various plays based on the technicals, but I certianly would want to open a fresh short STP on a bounce and not chase it downward...

Bear Market Bounce Check-Up; Focus on Solar and Gold

I sure haven't read Ted Butler. But I noted earlier that shorts were piling into oil (using USO as a proxy - yes, I know it's not perfect), but it is hard to call the entire 2008 run short-covering, so I am hard-pressed to call the last move up in oil simply short-covering just because a large drop ensued. Will be interesting to have another look at the data in another month or so.
Also, I should have been more clear - I believe in the fundamentals of oil over the longer haul, and I am not making any call on what oil will do in the short-term. I am simply noting that IF oil continues down from here, then it would be my guess that it is due to a stumbling global economy. If it quickly rebounds from here, it would be my guess that the global economy remains capable of paying the price.
As far as selling gold on a Fed hike, I am sticking with that signal. My presumption is that the dollar will strengthen on rate hikes. If the dollar stays weak, then I will get back into gold. I'm flexible. Regardless, I don't think the Fed will dare to raise rates for quite some time yet.
Checking out a chart of the dollar I see that the dollar was in decline in the 70s and rose sharply in the 80s (until 1987). And what did gold? Gold rose in the 70s, super-spiking into 1980 and generally declined from there. So, I don't think I am too far off from taking my cues for what to do with gold on what happens to the dollar. I just made a leap to suggest that rates hikes = stronger dollar. I understand it may not work out that way, but I won't be willing to stay in my position waiting for the proof.
Gold chart from www.kitco.com
Dollar chart from search.live.com/images...

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

FYI - I didn't use shares short as a % of float in this piece because I can't get historical information on it. I prefer to see the change in shorts over a period of time. The % of float is only important to the extent you are trying to time a short squeeze. Squeezing shorts is not the point of this piece.

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

Sorry folks. I forgot to include STP in this list. STP's short interest has increased 215% in 2008 through 6/13/08. Also note that numbers for June 30, 2008 settlement have now been released.

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

To be clear, I do not think oil is in a bubble, but I do think it will have periodic corrections, just as any bull market has corrections. And because of that opinion, I remain long-term bullish on solar. Has oil become over-extended in the short-term? Most likely. And I assume the accumulating and accelerating shorts in oil plays like USO are trying to get in ahead of the next big correction in oil prices. But timing is everything...

Solar Sector Plunges Right Along With Market

Hey "North Coast" - a rating system for articles here is a great idea. I will throw my hat in with a recommendation to the editors. Ratings will help authors like me fine tune our work. Thanks for the comments and kudos.

Solar Stocks Show Signs of Life

A good way to answer the question is to juxtapose the news during the week that helped the solar stocks in the face of an otherwise weak stock market. I noted a few, there is likely more:

1. Solarfun's earnings (SOLF) - I consider this company questionable but the market temporarily interepreted the report as a big positive
2. Germany's Solarworld posted great earnings
3. News (rumors) early in the week that the Congress would extend tax credits and subsidies to bolster solar energy (seems that this is still at least a month away or more. I have read concerns that partisan politics could impede progress)
4. Several analyst upgrades and positive commentary on companies such as Jaso, Suntech, and Fisrt Solar
5. California announcing huge solar projects
6. FPL announcing it was getting into the game with a large solar utility project

So, the stars, so to speak, aligned last week to put a lot of momentum behind these stocks. If you believe that the recent news represents incrementally new good news, then you would be right to buy. If you think that this news just adds to the on-going noisy hype, sit tight.

I am personally sitting tight for now because many of the sharts seem over-bought in the short-term and the overall market's weakness is very likely to drag these stocks back down. I also do not like the way most of the solar stocks that reported earnings in the past month or so experienced quick pops that were quickly faded to ever lower prices. Very suspicious behavior for a sector that is supposed to have a lot of future positives.