Dr. Duru

Follow the Mutual Funds: Solar Is Bottoming

It would be good to know when else these funds have added purchases of shares. Since they have existing holdings, I can only assume that late Nov is not the only time they have added to holdings....and that would mean that their buying is not a strong bullish signal. The latest bounce in solar stocks is also not the first. The bounce alone is not sufficient to mark a bottom. For example, FSLR ran up 70% in late October and into the election, only to make fresh 52-week lows by Nov 20.

Has the Sun Set on Solar Energy Stocks?

jcordes - I am not sure what thesis you are referring to. The main thesis in this piece is that my earlier claim that solar has decoupled from oil was erroneous. We can argue about cause and effect, but numerically (mathematically) the correlation is there...as oil has come down, solar has generally come down. And of course, that could change again at some point later.
JoeJoe - I did not talk much about specific entry and exit points on the various plays based on the technicals, but I certianly would want to open a fresh short STP on a bounce and not chase it downward...

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

FYI - I didn't use shares short as a % of float in this piece because I can't get historical information on it. I prefer to see the change in shorts over a period of time. The % of float is only important to the extent you are trying to time a short squeeze. Squeezing shorts is not the point of this piece.

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

Sorry folks. I forgot to include STP in this list. STP's short interest has increased 215% in 2008 through 6/13/08. Also note that numbers for June 30, 2008 settlement have now been released.

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

To be clear, I do not think oil is in a bubble, but I do think it will have periodic corrections, just as any bull market has corrections. And because of that opinion, I remain long-term bullish on solar. Has oil become over-extended in the short-term? Most likely. And I assume the accumulating and accelerating shorts in oil plays like USO are trying to get in ahead of the next big correction in oil prices. But timing is everything...

Solar Sector Plunges Right Along With Market

Hey "North Coast" - a rating system for articles here is a great idea. I will throw my hat in with a recommendation to the editors. Ratings will help authors like me fine tune our work. Thanks for the comments and kudos.

Solar Stocks Show Signs of Life

A good way to answer the question is to juxtapose the news during the week that helped the solar stocks in the face of an otherwise weak stock market. I noted a few, there is likely more:

1. Solarfun's earnings (SOLF) - I consider this company questionable but the market temporarily interepreted the report as a big positive
2. Germany's Solarworld posted great earnings
3. News (rumors) early in the week that the Congress would extend tax credits and subsidies to bolster solar energy (seems that this is still at least a month away or more. I have read concerns that partisan politics could impede progress)
4. Several analyst upgrades and positive commentary on companies such as Jaso, Suntech, and Fisrt Solar
5. California announcing huge solar projects
6. FPL announcing it was getting into the game with a large solar utility project

So, the stars, so to speak, aligned last week to put a lot of momentum behind these stocks. If you believe that the recent news represents incrementally new good news, then you would be right to buy. If you think that this news just adds to the on-going noisy hype, sit tight.

I am personally sitting tight for now because many of the sharts seem over-bought in the short-term and the overall market's weakness is very likely to drag these stocks back down. I also do not like the way most of the solar stocks that reported earnings in the past month or so experienced quick pops that were quickly faded to ever lower prices. Very suspicious behavior for a sector that is supposed to have a lot of future positives.