Dr. Kris

Research analyst, portfolio strategy, long/short equity, special situations
Dr. Kris
Research analyst, portfolio strategy, long/short equity, special situations
Contributor since: 2008
Company: Stock Market Cook Book
Boaz,
Am so very sorry for the loss of your mother, but know that she is with you in spirit.
All the best,
Kris
I met Sheldon Whitehouse at a fund raiser a few years ago. Really nice guy. Just wondering why he doesn't run for President...
Blah Blah Blah--
Women--you know, the ones that actually do the shopping--are saying that the shopping experience at WMT is getting worse. Sure, there are a few bargains still to be had, but they're getting scarcer.
This stock is going down--if not to zero.
On the other hand, quality is in on the rise. If someone can make a quality product at a good price, they've got a winning formula.
Dr. K
I bet the soccer moms in my area are lining up to buy this car. Around here, the Model S has become the Prius replacement. The Model X will be the Cayenne replacement. And according to what I've read, the Model X starts at $135k, no?
I think it's waaay cool--especially for an SUV. Completely understand why women love it--visibility (women LOVE that feature in addition to a mini-fridge, a seat massager, bud vases, and a beauty bar of body lotion dispensers (which I don't think the Model X has but should be offered as options)), safety, sexy doors (no woman has ever said no to a gullwing), and no visits to those icky gas stations ever. It's Barbi's dream-mobile of the 21st century!
Thanks for understanding us, Elon. Now if you could make an urban helicopter to bypass all this traffic completely...
Biotechs are a gamble for those who know not what they do. I based my bet on technicals and not on fundamentals. Thankfully not a large bet, but any loss still stings.
Could be. There's a big rotation today out of healthcare/pharma/biotech and into aerospace/restaurants/... We'll see shortly if today's FOMC statement has any impact.
DH51:
Your biblical quote is good. How about the one "...and the meek shall inherit the earth"? (Never liked the word "meek"; methinks it was an erroneous translation but I get the gist.)
The Tyler Durdan's at Zerohedge have also been harping on the same subject for years, FYI. I'm glad that Phil is spreading the word here.
Great article, Phil. I wish it wasn't so depressing.
Ruerd,
Points very well taken for all those out there. From watching the charts of many of these "schemes", they have evolved so much that, for right now, it would be more prudent to go long them (in the initial stage) then try to short them.
There's a long laundry list of shaky stocks that have run up to teetering heights...then have run up some more. One example is LOTE (Lot78). I knew from this company's lame website that is was bogus from the get-go. But it ran up to dizzying heights, likely capturing unsuspecting shorts in the process before crashing.
My opinion: If you have some mad money, go long these "schemes" at the start. Sell quickly (if you can get out of your position) when you've made a couple of dinero.
Just don't short it!! Unless you're a floor trader or just don't care.
Dr. K
The comments on these SIXD articles have been more fun than reading a tawdry romance novel. Maybe the stock is worth nothing, but it's story has been solid gold in terms of entertainment value.
Great beach reading! Thanks, guys.
Hats off to you, Mercy. You are my pick for the savviest person here (if Perkins Cove was hosting such a contest).
Wish you would post an original offering instead of a response, from time to time.
All the best to you!
Dr. K
Tribute Pharma is being bought out in a complicated deal. Shares of Tribute keep rising under heavy accumulation. I'd like to jump in but have no idea of how the company (and hence share price) should be valued. Since fundamental analysis is not my forte, I was wondering if any one of you fundamental experts here were willing to take a stab at it..? So far, it's been off the media's radar screens.
Boy, it seems as if I've hit a nerve. I thought it was ingenious of Chris to take advantage of the fact that CNBC personal were remiss in their duties to consider the other side of providing the public with market-moving material. They probably thought that by providing the incoming callers with current information the callers could adjust their questions accordingly.
Hats off to you, Chris!
Mercy,
Coal (kol) has been in a downward spiral for a long time.
Today, solar (tan, kwt) both broke major support.
Dr. K
Thank you for your thoughts.
According to Investopia (and some other sites), what you're doing with the Cramer call-in strategy could be classified as insider trading. Not that the SEC will be coming after you--they have much bigger fish to fry.
"The buying or selling of a security by someone who has access to material, nonpublic information about the security."
Just sayin'...
Dr. K
Your Cramer trade is priceless! I'm wondering if his show will now be getting swamped with callers...
Doctor,
Thanks so much for the article. Steiner stock broke out of a 2 1/2 month base today, closing above $50 resistance. Also, penny stock Kimberly Parry (KPOC, $0.47), a maker of high-end organic spa products, has been trending up, too.
It appears as if the consumer is still wanting to spend money, but tastes appear to be shifting from away from material goods (aka "stuff") and into the experiential: vacations, dining, fitness/wellness, etc. The spa space is definitely one to watch.
Dr. K
Marc,
Art is the new black in terms of money laundering. Great pieces of art are sitting in secured warehouse docks.
Dr. K
Good article, OM!
Good choices on your options strike picks: $38 is overhead resistance and $32 is major support. However, since the stock appears to be in rally mode, I would have waited until it starts flagging to write the call. Call me greedy.
Looking forward to more articles!
Dr. K
Mad,
I always enjoy your articles as they are very well-written, entertaining, thoughtful, and informative. What you posit in this article certainly may be true (my crystal is at the cleaners so I have no way of knowing myself), but I'm wondering how your friends at Business Insider arrived at a P/E of 17 for stocks..? The average P/E of the S&P 500 today is 20.68 (according to multpl.com). If I'm reading the chart above correctly (and it's a bit fuzzy on my screen), the bar representing a P/E of 21x appears much less appealing than the 17x bar. According to the 21x bar, the chances of stocks gaining ground or losing it over the next 12 months appears to be around 50/50. Assuming those conditions, stuffing cash under one's mattress may be the prudent move.
Mad:
If my husband doesn't mind, I'll marry you in the state of Utah. And I adore blinding snowstorms--what better place to sport one's ermine?
Dr. K
MJ--
What the CME said really isn't laughable, it's deflating and demoralizing. What's really crummy is that Wall Street gets away with raping the savings of mom & pops everywhere while profiting from their scams. The person who promulgated this fiasco should pay in part, but it's the people who funded him who should bear the brunt.
My take on this:
It's similar to a pump & dump in reverse. To execute this strategy, you'd need the backing of big money and since the short side risk is theoretically unlimited, it would be quite nice if there was something to balance it. Enter the plays in increased volatility.
The article you mentioned doesn't say how the volatility aspect is played but I'm guessing it's via futures or index tracking stocks. Perhaps between private betting billionaires--ahem--tr... firms.
Kris
MJ: Seems like they were looking for a scapegoat, and you're right, this is done by HFTs every day. As far as I can see, there was nothing illegal about it--unethical is another story.
Reminds me of the "Bunny Lady" of the Enron oil futures fame...
Kris
Just wondering how shorting $YINN fits into your investment strategy?
Additional disclosure: Chris DeMuth Jr is a portfolio manager at Rangeley Capital. Rangeley invests with a margin of safety by buying securities at deep discounts to their intrinsic value and unlocking that value through corporate events. In order to maximize total returns for our investors, we reserve the right to make investment decisions regarding any security without further notification except where such notification is required by law.
Does this ruling apply to private jets, too?
A cybersecurity company is only as good as the hackers it employs.
Another disadvantage of shorting is that the short seller is on the hook for paying the dividend (if there is one).
I agree with others here. Instead of shorting, I prefer using options to limit risk. I have enough trouble sleeping as it is...
glenn#2,
I don't understand your "curt remarks" comment. How was my response curt? I was making an observation that I felt was not only true but funny. I respect all my fellow contributors and only have had issue with a few of them over the course of many years because I didn't think they had their readers' best interests in mind.
Dr. Kris
There's one thing that beats good timing: dumb luck.
Hi Mercy,
Something I stumbled across: Saudi Arabia plans to construct 16 nuclear power reactors over the next 20 years at a cost of more than $80 billion, with the first reactor on line in 2022.
http://bit.ly/17Gq1wu
Not sure what to make of it...
Dr. K